Octopus Overlords

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:13 pm

It also leaves too much space in stop and go and is a little slow to start when the car in front starts, but I let it be.

FWIW, you can manually use the accelerator to get it going more quickly in stop-and-go. That won't disengage Autopilot.

Yeah I have played with that and I have used it for that one bridge that the car occasionally bogs down under, but otherwise it's not worth the effort. I'd rather just complain about it. I have to imagine at some point follow distance at under 5mph will be tightened up. It's silly to leave a car length when you can stop instantly.

I guess the flip side is that the car behind may not stop instantly.

Jeff V wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:16 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:12 pm They borked something with the electrical system and the radio wouldn't turn off. Thankfully I could still control the volume but I couldn't change inputs or stations via the screen nor the paddles nor the console buttons.

So...you're driving Christine these days?

There are actually 4 ways to control the audio (aside from voice) that I know of. I'm fairly certain that's why it is freaking out; surely they upset the delicate balance when they checked the battery output. I'll know more on Friday when I take it in. Hopefully the loaner is a fun one.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:23 pm

Jeff V wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:16 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:12 pm They borked something with the electrical system and the radio wouldn't turn off. Thankfully I could still control the volume but I couldn't change inputs or stations via the screen nor the paddles nor the console buttons.

So...you're driving Christine these days?

There are actually 4 ways to control the audio (aside from voice) that I know of. I'm fairly certain that's why it is freaking out; surely they upset the delicate balance when they checked the battery output. I'll know more on Friday when I take it in. Hopefully the loaner is a fun one.

Don't tell it you're taking it in. You might find yourself trapped with the doors locked and the volume turned to 11.

coopasonic wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:16 pm I guess the flip side is that the car behind may not stop instantly.

Pretty sure that's it. Given the headlines Tesla attracts and the lack of nuance involved in same, you can bet that if the car drove like a 'normal' person and was rear-ended more than it would be under current behavior, it wouldn't be a good day for the company.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:04 pm

coopasonic wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:03 pm Autopilot is fine, but pay attention so you don't die. Is that helpful?

Man, you said that in way fewer words than I did. Kudos.

In a traffic jam this morning I saw a van up ahead of me try to change lanes into the cab of a semi that was clearly to his left. He was going at 2 mph and the semi was stopped but it was like watching a slow motion train wreck. He hit and immediately turned away when he found out the wall that was the semi cab wasn't going to budge.

I'd say one has to always pay attention (autopilot or no) until we can eliminate that kind of driving.

She's on roll...

Big Tesla got to her!





TSLA trading down 8% on Q3 delivery miss. 31% drop in overall deliveries to 63,000. It was about a 20% drop in Model 3 and over 50% for the other models. From what I'm reading they delivered about half of the total in the final 10 days of the quarter but that doesn't make sense.

Up 110% YoY, but all the headlines compare to Q4 which is seasonally much stronger and represented the end of the full US tax credit. As per usual the share price response is... volatile. Definitely a miss compared to guidance, though.

Tesla's guidance may be a bad thing for Musk:

"Full year delivery guidance was stated in the release to have been 'reaffirmed' at the prior level of 360,000 to 400,000 units, in our view undermining a key tenet of CEO Elon Musk's legal defense against the SEC — that his February 19 tweet that Tesla will make around 500,000 vehicles in 2019 was not new information needing pre-approval," Brinkman said.

Musk is heading to Manhattan federal court on Thursday to continue his faceoff with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which claims that he violated an earlier deal by posting material information about Tesla on Feb. 19.

At that time, Musk tweeted to his more than 24 million Twitter followers: "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019."

I've read that the difference between the high and low numbers given at various times by Musk and company guidance is as much at $10B as revenue.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:24 am Up 110% YoY, but all the headlines compare to Q4 which is seasonally much stronger and represented the end of the full US tax credit. As per usual the share price response is... volatile. Definitely a miss compared to guidance, though.

I think the market had seasonality and tax credit drop built in and was looking for around 73K units which would still be a 14% miss.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:28 am

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:24 am Up 110% YoY, but all the headlines compare to Q4 which is seasonally much stronger and represented the end of the full US tax credit. As per usual the share price response is... volatile. Definitely a miss compared to guidance, though.

I think the market had seasonality and tax credit drop built in and was looking for around 73K units which would still be a 14% miss.

Agreed. Having 10k cars stuck in transit at the end of the quarter doesn't help. And it's becoming increasingly clear that the S/X need some form of refresh. Turns out that when you start offering a car that costs half the price and in some ways is superior, lots of people want that car instead. I'd like to see some form of minor range increase, the S/X able to take the v3 Supercharger speeds (currently only the 3 can), and some interior changes to better align with the 3.

Not sure I'd hold my breath on the X/S refreshes in 2019. It seems like the company is really committed to the 3 for the now and the coming of the model Y in the short term.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:30 pm Not sure I'd hold my breath on the X/S refreshes in 2019. It seems like the company is really committed to the 3 for the now and the coming of the model Y in the short term.

I agree with that, as well. And they are also pretty committed to keeping capex in check, so they're probably not wild about the idea of another major project. But if the S/X drop is not a fluke and it continues through Q2, they may need to do something about it.

Interesting video from Jalopnik where they interview some Munroe teardown guys about the internals of the i3, Bolt, and Model 3.

I had my first black screen and reboot while driving today. I was on the interstate in the middle of a lane change when the console just went black. I didn't realize what was going on at first until I noticed that the inside of the car was very dark (this was 6:00am). I kept driving, hoping that the car wouldn't seize up on me then I saw the tesla logo on the screen and realized it was rebooting.

The nice thing is, it remembered my navigation route after reboot and continued giving me directions.

raydude wrote: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:58 am I had my first black screen and reboot while driving today. I was on the interstate in the middle of a lane change when the console just went black. I didn't realize what was going on at first until I noticed that the inside of the car was very dark (this was 6:00am). I kept driving, hoping that the car wouldn't seize up on me then I saw the tesla logo on the screen and realized it was rebooting.

Ok, that's... terrifying.

It's scary to have the screen go black; has happened to me a couple of times in 15k miles. But the display (and the MCU computer behind it) does not actually control any of the core vehicle functions. You can continue driving 'normally' while it reboots.

That said, I did get a reboot when I entered the car last night (while in park thankfully). They are pushing a minor 2019.8.6 update (from 8.5) which scuttlebutt says is to address the higher prevalence of reboots under 8.5.

Audi's starting to advertise the e-tron:

"Secure yours today."

Funding secured!

- Model 3 leases are now available (without option purchase at end of lease)
- All new model 3s now include Autopilot.
- LR RWD is off the menu again.

Also, the cost of included autopilot is a slight discount vs the old option price.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:45 am Audi's starting to advertise the e-tron:

Looks like a Kia Niro

https://www.kia.com/us/en/content/vehic ... 19-niro-ev

I swapped out my winter tires/wheels for the all-seasons today.

Well, *I* didn't do it. Tesla mobile service came out and took care of it for me. In a modded Model S (no rear seats, custom gear racks/drawers). For $60 total. I didn't need to speak to a human until they were literally at my doorstep.

coopasonic wrote:- Model 3 leases are now available (without option purchase at end of lease)
- All new model 3s now include Autopilot.
- LR RWD is off the menu again.

If and when this comes to Canada as it's supposed to, it might put me over the edge.

Not necessarily the ideal thread for this, but it's probably the best location we've got:

LordMortis wrote: Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:19 pmWe'll see how Ford plays out. CMax made zero splash and I can't see how it would have but Ford has at least made a commitment in manpower and space when they purchased Detroit's old train station for the development of EV and self driving design.

Today, they're at least doing something that I view as significantly wise. Rivian is the most impressive EV upstart not named Tesla, IMO, and their biggest hurdle at this point is having the cashola cola to actually get to market. $500M from Ford will help a lot, especially when added to Amazon's existing investment. Rivian's tech looks to be the real deal, and from all I've seen of him, RJ Scaringe is a fair ace-in-the-hole comparable to Tesla's JB Straubel.

I'm starting to think that Rivian might be able to actually pull off survival.

Side note: GM's failure to get a deal done with Rivian is not looking too great right now.

On the Tesla side of things, they announced last night that the S and X now have updated powertrains utilizing the Model 3's permanent-magnet motor, allowing them to get about a 10% range increase without growing the battery packs at all. Model S now tops out at 370 miles EPA (vs 335 prior) and X is now 325 (vs 295). They also get increased charge rates to 200 kW max (from 120). Combined, this about halves average Supercharging times.

Also get some adaptive four-corner suspension and a 'free' Ludicrous mode upgrade for any existing S/X owners who upgrade.

The S/X badly needed an update along these lines to bring them more in line with the 3's efficiency and charge tech. I still think we'll see an interior refresh of at least the S and probably the X at some point later this year or early next.

That could be very good for both companies. I approve. I would also like to subscribe to the newsletter. I'm going to have to see if I can learn more.

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:31 am

coopasonic wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:20 am SOme of us have had our car for over three months and never washed it.

I would like Zaxx and the community at large to know that I washed my car last weekend. Just over 8 months, putting it well ahead of the schedule of my previous cars. It is the first time I have hand washed a car in at least 25 years.

Con... congratulations?

That reminds me that I need to take mine for a wash today. I'm hitting up the local HS's Earth Day shindig to show off the car.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:38 am Con... congratulations?

That reminds me that I need to take mine for a wash today. I'm hitting up the local HS's Earth Day shindig to show off the car.

We had our campus Earth Day car show yesterday... I skipped it. We have about 30 models 3s on campus now. I assume we were well represented. If I went I would just be scoffing at all the hybrids and that doesn't seem in the spirit of the day.

This article on autonomous vehicles is a few months old, but interesting.
https://www.newsweek.com/2018/12/14/how ... 47728.html

https://teslike.com/range/

I knew driving 80mph was costing me efficiency, but I didn't realize just how much...

70mph range 307mi, 80mph range 259mi

If I ever lose my free charging I may need to change my driving habits.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:19 pm Tesla Posts Massive First Quarter Loss After Self-Driving Car Absconds With $702 Million in Cash

A bit late to the party, but I think it would have to be the semi to take that much cash.

coopasonic wrote:https://teslike.com/range/

I knew driving 80mph was costing me efficiency, but I didn't realize just how much...

70mph range 307mi, 80mph range 259mi

If I ever lose my free charging I may need to change my driving habits.

Wind resistance increases with the square of speed. It's... Unforgiving.

coopasonic wrote: Fri May 10, 2019 10:00 am https://teslike.com/range/

I knew driving 80mph was costing me efficiency, but I didn't realize just how much...

70mph range 307mi, 80mph range 259mi

If I ever lose my free charging I may need to change my driving habits.

I noticed TPA has free charging in the cell phone lot. I had a buddy who used to live near the airport, he was so cheap he no doubt would have been into a plug in by now just for the free charging. You might check at your airport if it's nearby.

Motor Trend compact luxury sedan comparison test...
https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/m ... ison-test/

Side note: my wife, um. Well, she woke up a couple months ago saying maybe we should look at an X.

Then Tesla raised the range.

Then Tesla offered us significantly more than expected for our existing PHEV.

Then Tesla dropped the price on the X.

I'm toast.

They're desperate for sales. Might not be a good thing long term for TSLA but it's definitely good for anyone in the market right now. If they are offering trade-ins on hybrid sedans I may have to take a look. I just bought out my lease so it will need to be a pretty favorable trade in but I'm always listening.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 22, 2019 12:22 pm They're desperate for sales. Might not be a good thing long term for TSLA but it's definitely good for anyone in the market right now. If they are offering trade-ins on hybrid sedans I may have to take a look. I just bought out my lease so it will need to be a pretty favorable trade in but I'm always listening.

They'll take anything in trade, and generally match CarMax. In our case we have a fairly hard-to-find vehicle, so that may have helped us. Last year when I got my 3, they offered a solid amount for my Leaf relative to KBB and other estimates, as well.

They're also currently offering unlimited supercharging on inventory non-Raven S/X, likely cause clearing them out after the refresh was announced last month is difficult. (Raven moved one S/X motor to the Model 3 type, increasing range by about 10%, lowering 0-60 slightly. Also has a new adaptive suspension.)