Octopus Overlords

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 12:54 pm Best summary I've seen

https://twitter.com/RynMarino/status/14 ... 1500003328

The reason it’s illegal for economists to give medical advice is because they might advise you that since your kid is statistically more likely to die in a car accident than drowning, just don’t bother worrying about them drowning. If only I were joking.

Why use a screenshot and not link the whole thread? It's taken out of context and misleading. But yay Twitter soundbite?


https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfEmilyOst ... 5168823297

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:00 pm Why use a screenshot and not link the whole thread? It's taken out of context and misleading. But yay Twitter soundbite?

Because it's her "bottom line" communication message to parents? I dunno.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:03 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:00 pm Why use a screenshot and not link the whole thread? It's taken out of context and misleading. But yay Twitter soundbite?

Because it's her "bottom line" communication message to parents? I dunno.

Have a go at someone who recommends vaccination, masking even when vaccinated, and more testing. Because she isn't an MD. Way to pick your battles, Ryan.

He also mis-characterizes the part he did quote.

I think everyone in public health is rubbed-raw over the prioritization of economic-based decision making over the last 18+ months of this insanity. So when an economist starts opining on safety/risk related to children like it's a financial calculation. It's also (understandably) an extremely hot topic right now nationwide - especially as the rental moratorium is about to end and only a few states have take specific actions to help mitigate what's about to happen. Again, I dunno.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:34 pm I think everyone in public health is rubbed-raw over the prioritization of economic-based decision making over the last 18+ months of this insanity. So when an economist starts opining on safety/risk related to children like it's a financial calculation. It's also (understandably) an extremely hot topic right now nationwide - especially as the rental moratorium is about to end and only a few states have take specific actions to help mitigate what's about to happen. Again, I dunno.

This is really important. I have had several really long conversations with people and I think a lot of people had their eyes opened by this whole thing. And we have years of fallout ahead of us. I don't know how society is going to absorb a once in a century series of financial shocks, then a once in a century health shock, and then a once in a century political shock, with some climate change uncertainty on top. So yeah nerves are going to be raw and frankly mischaracterized or not, people like this or fucking Nate Silver running their mouths *WAY* out of their lanes for clicks is pretty annoying.

malchior wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:13 pm This is really important. I have had several really long conversations with people and I think a lot of people had their eyes opened by this whole thing.

Now add this:

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status ... 5331197952

I am convinced that at this stage of the pandemic, misleading and irresponsible headlines from otherwise reputable news outlets are a major source of damaging misinformation.

If you go to that Tweet and follow through, he provides some examples and expands on the thought.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1421615979726090243

COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S.:

At least 1 dose:
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░
57.51% (+0.14)

Fully vaccinated*:
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░
49.52% (+0.08)

*To reach 70% at current rate:
277 days (+4): May 4, 2022

Mask mandates are becoming all the rage around here again. For the first time, the county I live in (Kendall) is in the forefront due to increased cases as well as the rest of the Chicago area counties. With schools starting soon, it will be interesting to see if it has an impact. Last year, our county wasn't a raging cesspool of infection, and in-school learning was allowed the entire school year. Now that we apparently are, and the new variant loves kids that can't be vaccinated yet, I wonder if anything might change.

I honestly don’t know how much longer I can keep my cool with the two idiots I work with that refuse to get vaccinated. One I’ve mentioned before and she’s just a complete tool who believes only what she hears from the Trump crowd, the other I just found out about. Apparently she’s not doing so out of some belief that her love of holistic healthcare or whatever New Age shit she subscribes to protects her from COVID-19. She also has two elderly parents who live near her that are frequently in the hospital due to diabetes and other health issues. I guess it’s going to take killing one or both of them to help her understand what a fucking moron she is.

It takes all my willpower not to just start yelling at these fuckwits whenever I see them.

hepcat wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:45 pm I honestly don’t know how much longer I can keep my cool with the two idiots I work with that refuse to get vaccinated. One I’ve mentioned before and she’s just a complete tool who believes only what she hears from the Trump crowd, the other I just found out about. Apparently she’s not doing so out of some belief that her love of holistic healthcare or whatever New Age shit she subscribes to protects her from COVID-19. She also has two elderly parents who live near her that are frequently in the hospital due to diabetes and other health issues.

It takes all my willpower not to just start yelling at them whenever I see them.

It's still possible that it will mutate to a form that has an almost 100% mortality rate for the unvaccinated. Let Darwinism take care of the problem.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:34 pmSo when an economist starts opining on safety/risk related to children like it's a financial calculation.

It's not a financial calculation, it's a risk based calculation.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:34 pm It's not a financial calculation, it's a risk based calculation.

From someone that uses financial models to gauge risk.

The death of a child is tragic. No one should be arguing on the side of open-exposure when "death" is on the spectrum of outcomes. Instead, we should be doing things to reduce risk. Not saying "Meh, kids are more likely to die in a car accident so why bother putting them in masks?"

It's...chilling.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:38 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:34 pm It's not a financial calculation, it's a risk based calculation.

From someone that uses financial models to gauge risk.

The death of a child is tragic. No one should be arguing on the side of open-exposure when "death" is on the spectrum of outcomes. Instead, we should be doing things to reduce risk. Not saying "Meh, kids are more likely to die in a car accident so why bother putting them in masks?"

It's...chilling.

That's not what she said. She said vaccinate, wear masks, and get tested, don't panic. Nowhere, like absolutely nowhere, did she say don't bother with masks for kids. She simply says that we deal with similar risks everyday, don't panic. But again, soundbites and knee jerk outrage are our sustenance these days.

I think I'm combining different elements; everything is blending for me lately. She isn't saying anything about kids, but others use her argument (that kids are at higher risk for RSV, drowning, etc...) to justify why we shouldn't be masking them in schools, or anywhere. She's telling adults to mask and vaccinate (which they should) but side-stepping the kid element by saying we shouldn't worry about COVID-19 and kids because they're at higher risk to die in a car accident. Her message is then scooped up and shouted from the mountaintops.

That's how I ended up finding the original exchange - following a chain of discussion points on why its NDB for kids to head back to school in a few weeks, unvaccinated and unmaksed - they're more likely to die in a car accident.

EDIT: What's also happening is that the group pushing to not have kids in masks in schools is using her message to justify it ("kids are more likely to die of car accidents") and completely ignoring the idea that unvaccinated kids are going to catch and help spread the virus.

I'm honestly exhausted trying to explain all this to people (not you or anyone here, to be clear). Vaccines right now are great for mitigating complications. Masks are great for minimizing spread. We can (and should) still be doing both. The lunatics that are screaming that they're vaccinated or that they had it and they're never going to mask again or that kids aren't dying from COVID so they don't need masks are completely missing the point of all these NPIs that we've been pushing since April/May of 2020.

Somehow the message has morphed into, "You're vaccinated, everything is done" and that's just not the case - especially when we haven't even hit 50% fully vaccinated yet in 'merica.

Jeff V wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:48 pm

hepcat wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:45 pm I honestly don’t know how much longer I can keep my cool with the two idiots I work with that refuse to get vaccinated. One I’ve mentioned before and she’s just a complete tool who believes only what she hears from the Trump crowd, the other I just found out about. Apparently she’s not doing so out of some belief that her love of holistic healthcare or whatever New Age shit she subscribes to protects her from COVID-19. She also has two elderly parents who live near her that are frequently in the hospital due to diabetes and other health issues.

It takes all my willpower not to just start yelling at them whenever I see them.

It's still possible that it will mutate to a form that has an almost 100% mortality rate for the unvaccinated. Let Darwinism take care of the problem.

While that's possible and I understand the sentiment, viruses don't "want" to kill their hosts; they want to spread. There's no evolutionary advantage to becoming more lethal.

That depends on what eats you.

I’ve seen The Thing and I can safely say there are holes in your theory.

Kraken wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:09 pm

Jeff V wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:48 pm

hepcat wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:45 pm I honestly don’t know how much longer I can keep my cool with the two idiots I work with that refuse to get vaccinated. One I’ve mentioned before and she’s just a complete tool who believes only what she hears from the Trump crowd, the other I just found out about. Apparently she’s not doing so out of some belief that her love of holistic healthcare or whatever New Age shit she subscribes to protects her from COVID-19. She also has two elderly parents who live near her that are frequently in the hospital due to diabetes and other health issues.

It takes all my willpower not to just start yelling at them whenever I see them.

It's still possible that it will mutate to a form that has an almost 100% mortality rate for the unvaccinated. Let Darwinism take care of the problem.

While that's possible and I understand the sentiment, viruses don't "want" to kill their hosts; they want to spread. There's no evolutionary advantage to becoming more lethal.

In fact, higher lethality is often an evolutionary disadvantage.

There's a sweet spot and it isn't killing off all your hosts.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:01 pmI think I'm combining different elements; everything is blending for me lately.

You're falling prey to the outrage machine. Those algorithms are tricksie.

edit - this isn't meant harshly, btw - tone is tricky on the interwebs. I'm sure you're exhausted, and everything about this is beyond frustrating.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:49 pmIn fact, higher lethality is often an evolutionary disadvantage.

Yup. That's one of the big reasons MERS is so controlled - the thing is so damn lethal that it can almost never spread outside of a hospital.

Little Raven wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:00 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:01 pmI think I'm combining different elements; everything is blending for me lately.

You're falling prey to the outrage machine. Those algorithms are tricksie.

edit - this isn't meant harshly, btw - tone is tricky on the interwebs. I'm sure you're exhausted, and everything about this is beyond frustrating.

No offense taken; I am absolutely fried. This is another good summary:

https://twitter.com/GYamey/status/1421617296263499776

Minimizing childhood Covid in the US—a play in 4 acts

Act “Kids don’t get Covid”
Act “Kids get Covid but don’t get ill”
Act “Kids die from Covid but don’t worry, only kids with pre-existing conditions die”
Act “Don’t worry, kids also die from drowning or car crashes”

It's just getting harder and harder to process. I never thought I'd need to explain to parents why pushing for children without vaccinations to crowd into a school building without masks is not a good plan.

We all agree that having them back to in-person learning is the goal and what is likely best for most. It's like...there's a belief that in person doesn't count unless it *looks* back to normal, regardless of the risk.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:49 pm

Kraken wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:09 pm

Jeff V wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:48 pm

hepcat wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:45 pm I honestly don’t know how much longer I can keep my cool with the two idiots I work with that refuse to get vaccinated. One I’ve mentioned before and she’s just a complete tool who believes only what she hears from the Trump crowd, the other I just found out about. Apparently she’s not doing so out of some belief that her love of holistic healthcare or whatever New Age shit she subscribes to protects her from COVID-19. She also has two elderly parents who live near her that are frequently in the hospital due to diabetes and other health issues.

It takes all my willpower not to just start yelling at them whenever I see them.

It's still possible that it will mutate to a form that has an almost 100% mortality rate for the unvaccinated. Let Darwinism take care of the problem.

While that's possible and I understand the sentiment, viruses don't "want" to kill their hosts; they want to spread. There's no evolutionary advantage to becoming more lethal.

In fact, higher lethality is often an evolutionary disadvantage.

There's a sweet spot and it isn't killing off all your hosts.

The evolutionary arms race between the virus spreading and our immune system (including vaccines) adapting will eventually reach a stalemate. Covid-19 will become endemic, and we'll cope with it as we do the flu or (optimistically) the common cold. That's probably still years away, and getting there is going to be a bitch.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:36 pmWe all agree that having them back to in-person learning is the goal and what is likely best for most. It's like...there's a belief that in person doesn't count unless it *looks* back to normal, regardless of the risk.

Also apparently the only risks to worry about are death. Getting sick and/or just the general long-term risks of hospitalization/intubation? NBD. Possible long-term cognitive impairment? NBD. Kids bounce back or something.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:25 pm https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1421615979726090243

COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S.:

At least 1 dose:
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░
57.51% (+0.14)

Fully vaccinated*:
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░
49.52% (+0.08)

*To reach 70% at current rate:
277 days (+4): May 4, 2022

OMG only slightly less then 50% are vaccinated? TF?

Drazzil wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 3:38 pm OMG only slightly less then 50% are vaccinated? TF?

Yup. And yet masks were yoinked widely months ago.

In the list of miscommunications is that % immunized has been repeatedly reported as a function of those eligible. First is was people over the age of 18, then it dipped to 16 and up. Then 12 and up. It's absolutely important to report that 90%+ of people over the age of 75 in any given state are vaccinated - that's helpful information, particularly to those that are trying to reconfigure outreach and access-related interventions to get to those still unable to vaccinate easily.

However, instead of reporting that widely, we should have been reporting % of the population vaccinated because this whole time every single person (ignoring prior exposures) was in the denominator for the risk pool. I think this contributed to what is happening now - with people largely ignoring the cohort of < 12 in the U.S. -- because they have it in their heads that we vaccinated the original "target" population widely and effectively.

See here for better visualizations on how each state is doing as a % of the total (at-risk) population.

Ran into my daughter's troop leader yesterday, and she mentioned that her entire (extended) family came down with COVID last week following a large family gathering - and every single one of them was vaccinated. Fortunately, there's only been one hospitalization (her father in law) and he's expected to recover, but she says it was no joke for anyone over the age of 25. She was sick (like, not getting out of bed sick) for 3 days, and her husband wasn't much better.

Little Raven wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:02 pm Ran into my daughter's troop leader yesterday, and she mentioned that her entire (extended) family came down with COVID last week following a large family gathering - and every single one of them was vaccinated. Fortunately, there's only been one hospitalization (her father in law) and he's expected to recover, but she says it was no joke for anyone over the age of 25. She was sick (like, not getting out of bed sick) for 3 days, and her husband wasn't much better.

I hope it was early last week.

Another one. This one was 'just hesitant' versus an anti-vax but it still left several young children fatherless.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 9311031307

At some point, people will learn, right?

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/statu ... 0216308740

NEW: Days after classes began, COVID-19 outbreaks forced two Lamar County high schools to go all-virtual.

Now, the district is reversing its "mask optional" policy and reinstating a mask requirement. Other Mississippi districts are also reversing course.

"The delta variant is different."

After the first SEVEN days of classes in August 2020, the whole Lamar County School District reported 10 cases of COVID-19 between students, staff and faculty.

Just TWO days after students returned this month? 79 cases.

I wonder if we're all going to find out that our lungs are full of cheap mask fibers ten years down the road. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7537728/

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:26 pm At some point, people will learn, right?

That's a rhetorical question, right?

While I appreciate the comic, either I don't understand what's happening with the virus, or it proceeds from a false assumption.

COVID has never been "almost slain." The entire world has steadily lost ground against it since it appeared. It is now endemic not only to the human race but the planet itself, and our vaccines, while great, merely slow it down.

That dragon is never going away no matter what people do.

I like the comic, hadn't seen that before.

Little Raven wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:55 pm COVID has never been "almost slain." The entire world has steadily lost ground against it since it appeared. It is now endemic not only to the human race but the planet itself, and our vaccines, while great, merely slow it down.

At the risk of being the ackchyually d00d...

We're still in the pandemic. As long as there are uncontrolled outbreaks happening in various parts of the planet, the pandemic status is maintained. Years from now (3? 5?) we''ll (hopefully?) be at the endemic stage where some unknown strain of SARS-CoV-2 is going to randomly spring up, cause some illnesses, and then fade away again. Rabies is an endemic disease of mammals in North America (by way of example).

I point this out because our own President is flubbing around the language and it's confusing the message. There isn't a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" happening right now. Not only is that technically incorrect (which I know, no one cares), but the message it sends is more harmful. That kind of language makes it sound like it's no longer the problem of vaccinated people and that's just not correct at all. Vaccinated people absolutely still need to care about this and do whatever it takes to help convince hesitant family members and friends to get vaccinated. Vaccinated people also need to care and advocate for those that cannot be vaccinated (like kids). As is usually the case, so much of this has turned into a binary status argument and it's not helping.

This goes back to the idea that the vaccine was the "silver bullet" that will fix everything. Without question it changed our course in 2021, but pushing the vaccine and making this a "personal health" narrative was a huge mistake. Pushing the vaccination as the end to masking, social distancing, increased ventilation, etc... is why we're in this mess right now with Delta. I still cannot figure out for the life of me why the NPIs were minimized when they're all so critical in stopping outbreaks. It was known in 2020 we weren't going to vaccinate our way out of this - that didn't change when Biden was elected. And yet...here we are.

That dragon is never going away no matter what people do.

Absolutely; that ship has long sailed. What remains to be seen is what version of SARS-CoV-2 eventually emerges as we race to vaccinate people around the globe and seemingly promote mass-spread events here in the U.S., even still. Once again, America has squandered a tremendous opportunity to squash levels down. Everything prior to January of 2021 didn't help, but I'm not going to lie and say the current administration is doing an (A+) job on messaging right now. How much of that has also been influenced by the almighty dollar, I can't say, but I strongly suspect that just like 2020, the push to press forward as though nothing is happening is being driven by the unrelenting weight of capitalism.

Little Raven wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:55 pm COVID has never been "almost slain."

No, but for a month or so around May and June it felt that way in the US, or at least where I live. We had a narrow window of opportunity then if people had just kept rolling up their sleeves. Even then, when I reminded friends that "this isn't over" I didn't say it with much conviction. I was befuddled by an unfamiliar emotion called "hope." But that moment passed and I got over it.

Little Raven wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:55 pm COVID has never been "almost slain."

Indeed. It's not a perfect analogy in the comic. It works for some definition of slain.

Specifically, this one:

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:19 pm Once again, America has squandered a tremendous opportunity to squash levels down.

America resembles those townsfolk in that rather than take the painfully-obvious, bog-simple steps (vaccinate ourselves to the best of our ability, continue masking, avoid the most high-risk of activities), we preemptively doffed our armor, taunted the dragon, and hung out beyond the castle wall.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:19 pmI point this out because our own President is flubbing around the language and it's confusing the message. There isn't a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" happening right now. Not only is that technically incorrect (which I know, no one cares), but the message it sends is more harmful. That kind of language makes it sound like it's no longer the problem of vaccinated people and that's just not correct at all. Vaccinated people absolutely still need to care about this and do whatever it takes to help convince hesitant family members and friends to get vaccinated. Vaccinated people also need to care and advocate for those that cannot be vaccinated (like kids). As is usually the case, so much of this has turned into a binary status argument and it's not helping.

FWIW the press were the ones who cooked up this that 'pandemic of the unvaccinated' talk. The White House could have decided the message was already out there and might have calculated it was a good rallying cry. A free move so to speak. They didn't need to spend effort to get the idea out there. One of many on the fly moves that may have made things worse instead of better.

That dragon is never going away no matter what people do.

Absolutely; that ship has long sailed. What remains to be seen is what version of SARS-CoV-2 eventually emerges as we race to vaccinate people around the globe and seemingly promote mass-spread events here in the U.S., even still. Once again, America has squandered a tremendous opportunity to squash levels down. Everything prior to January of 2021 didn't help, but I'm not going to lie and say the current administration is doing an (A+) job on messaging right now. How much of that has also been influenced by the almighty dollar, I can't say, but I strongly suspect that just like 2020, the push to press forward as though nothing is happening is being driven by the unrelenting weight of capitalism.

IMO it's everything that plagued our society before the plague. We simply have too many problems to have the capacity to solve simple issues much less complex ones.

Florida hospitalizations just hit a record. What's the plan, DeSantis? "The measure of a country is how it treats its prisoners." I'd substitute how do we protect our children. Never thought that'd be a question but apparently they are now fodder for political dreams.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1422135084098916352