Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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El Guapo
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 7031260162

There was also an IA Senate poll released that had Greenfield up by 12, and Biden up by 2 in Georgia.

Probably a couple of these will wind up being outliers, but the trendline is good.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Unagi »

LOL - no, why on earth would he suspend his campaign.... That would be weak and stupid. AS IF Trump would do that. LOL
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

Unagi wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:49 am
LOL - no, why on earth would he suspend his campaign.... That would be weak and stupid. AS IF Trump would do that. LOL
Believe it or not...I've seen at least 2-3 mentions of this idea. This is a mainstream political commentator. The precedent is Nixon's knee injury in the 1960 campaign. Kennedy suspended some events over a couple of days while Nixon recovered from surgery due to an infection from banging his knee on a car door. It wasn't however *weeks* even though Nixon was laid up 2 weeks. Also, Trump did not suspend his campaign while Clinton recovered from pneumonia if you want to play the GOP card.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Holman »

Trump’s own campaign can’t be considered suspended unless Fox/OANN/etc go dark.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

To pull on this thread a little, my back of envelope calculations are that the media will spend a good part of today focused on Trump's circle. That cycle will burn out very much unlike coronavirus unless more people in Trump's circle test positive. That'll keep it focused there. At some point, Joe's team is going to get pressed to talk about their plan for how the next two weeks are going to go with calls to suspend out of fairness and questions about whether he'll quarantine since he has been exposed. They have time to prepare an answer but there are likely intense meetings happening *right now* about how to respond to this crisis.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:08 am To pull on this thread a little, my back of envelope calculations are that the media will spend a good part of today focused on Trump's circle. That cycle will burn out very much unlike coronavirus unless more people in Trump's circle test positive. That'll keep it focused there. At some point, Joe's team is going to get pressed to talk about their plan for how the next two weeks are going to go with calls to suspend out of fairness and questions about whether he'll quarantine since he has been exposed. They have time to prepare an answer but there are likely intense meetings happening *right now* about how to respond to this crisis.
I would assume that the top priority is to assume that at least one person on their team contracted it and ensure that any spread is contained, especially as to Biden and Harris. Also seems like a no-brainer to have Biden quarantine (and maybe Harris, if she's been in close contact with anyone on the team who was present), both as a show of protocols and (more importantly) to minimize risk of spreading.

The messaging doesn't seem all that hard. Express sympathy (already done), note safety protocols being taken on his side, but note that it's important with the election a month away to get the message out. I'm sure there'll be some minor tut-tutting from some talking heads, but I really doubt that will matter. In 2008 when the financial crisis hit hard in the fall McCain made a show of rushing back to Washington and called for postponing their debate while they dealt with the crisis; Obama ignored that, the debate went ahead, and Obama didn't seem to pay any price for that.

The other key priority is gaming out between strategists and lawyers how to respond to various scenarios for how this plays out - what if Trump dies or is incapacitated, what if Biden dies or is incapacitated, etc.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:14 am Also seems like a no-brainer to have Biden quarantine (and maybe Harris, if she's been in close contact with anyone on the team who was present), both as a show of protocols and (more importantly) to minimize risk of spreading.
Right but there is a pretty big trade off there potentially. He is a solid lead but they'll want to at least defend it. So they'll be weighing shifting to virtual events, etc.
The messaging doesn't seem all that hard. Express sympathy (already done), note safety protocols being taken on his side, but note that it's important with the election a month away to get the message out. I'm sure there'll be some minor tut-tutting from some talking heads, but I really doubt that will matter. In 2008 when the financial crisis hit hard in the fall McCain made a show of rushing back to Washington and called for postponing their debate while they dealt with the crisis; Obama ignored that, the debate went ahead, and Obama didn't seem to pay any price for that.
It isn't so much that the messaging is hard or easy. More that the political situation is so treacherous that they will likely have to be exceedingly careful about getting it right. The best case is they had a playbook for this type of situation. That'd be great but that might be too much to hope.
The other key priority is gaming out between strategists and lawyers how to respond to various scenarios for how this plays out - what if Trump dies or is incapacitated, what if Biden dies or is incapacitated, etc.
Yeah this is the meat of it. They luckily have much more time than the scenario I'm thinking about where the Biden campaign will be pressed for near-term plans.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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As far as I can tell Biden doesn't get a ton of press for his in-person events, which I think will be even more true now (and if he got press, some of it would be negative for having in-person events). So I think quarantining and shifting to more virtual events is an easy call, both in terms of safety and in terms of preserving his lead.

Really I think the top priority is Biden's safety. The second highest priority is being prepared to respond to Trump campaign and legal machinations if Biden dies or is incapacitated either before the election or after the election but before the electoral college voting.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Alefroth »

What's to suspend? I thought he just spent his days in the basement.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by hepcat »

He should ABSOLUTELY continue. Trump would. If that makes him as bad as Trump, well...maybe he needs to be in some areas to beat that orange piece of shit.

By the way, what are the odds that Donny starts floating the assertion that since he's sick and can't campaign, we should delay the election?
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Archinerd »

Alefroth wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:24 pm
What's to suspend? I thought he just spent his days in the basement.
Trump isn't that sick anyway, it's "no worse than the flu".
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

“He’s f***ed, we’re f***ed”.

https://twitter.com/andrewfeinberg/stat ... 42304?s=21
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by $iljanus »

Grifman wrote:“He’s f***ed, we’re f***ed”.

https://twitter.com/andrewfeinberg/stat ... 42304?s=21
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Smoove_B »

He's going all positive? Like Trump and his closest advisors?
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Defiant »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:31 pm
He's going all positive? Like Trump and his closest advisors?
:lol:


But in actuality, the Trump campaign is not removing their negative ads.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Skinypupy »

Lincoln Project can still sling the Dirt. Joe doesn’t need to.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Holman »

Defiant wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:36 pm
But in actuality, the Trump campaign is not removing their negative ads.
The Trump campaign put out an ad attacking Obama shortly after Obama tweeted sincere wishes for the Trumps’ health and recovery.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

No mercy here - read the entire devastating thread:

https://twitter.com/steveschmidtses/sta ... 31456?s=21
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

The Biden plan here out is to stay positive, and act as the de facto president. There’s a good chance Trump will never return to active campaigning. Stress Biden’s leadership, the importance of stability, the need to bring the country together and get through this. He’s got the floor, so be all the things the president is unable (and frankly never has been able) to be.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

Biden dramatically increases lead post debate in WSJ/NBC poll, 53% to 39%:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-scor ... 1601816400

This is the first time Trump has poled under 40%.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by YellowKing »

Anecdotally, I've seen a quiet shift away from Trump among my friends and family. One that I would have normally thought unthinkable.

It started when I made three anti-Trump Facebook posts that I thought would draw a lot of ire, and instead I got likes from several people I thought for sure were firmly in the Trump camp. I only had one negative reaction, and that was from a guy I haven't talked to in over a decade.

Then I ended up in a political discussion with my dad, and while he didn't come right out and say he was voting for Biden, he strongly hinted at it.

It's hard to describe in words, but just little conversations I've had, etc. signify a shift. And while I know it's a tiny sample size, it's something real that I'm seeing in my circle.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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“There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:19 am “There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America
Curious what "before this started", specifically, is in reference to here.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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As long as we're sharing anecdotes, yesterday I drew my first Facebook troll. I don't usually make blatantly political posts on FB because it's such a lousy forum for any real discussion, but in the course of something else I said that Clinton had taken MA by 27 points in 2014, and because Biden's more popular than Hillary was, I guarantee he'll carry MA by at least 30 points. This woman I don't know argued that trump's going to win in a landslide...including in MA! I didn't engage with her except for a laughing emoticon.

I thought it was interesting that she found my political post in an otherwise not-political thread. She might have been a bot, although her profile looked at least superficially legit. I was amused, anyway.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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I'm guessing it's referring to how badly Trump has been doing in the polls for months?

Here's the article with the quote: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html
And it has left them wondering how to wage a strong closing campaign when the judgment, actions and competence of its leaders were so squarely at issue just as voting is getting underway across the country.

“There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America. “Candidates are being forced to defend themselves every day on whether they agree with this or that, in terms of what the president did on the virus.”
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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Kraken wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:40 am As long as we're sharing anecdotes, yesterday I drew my first Facebook troll. I don't usually make blatantly political posts on FB because it's such a lousy forum for any real discussion, but in the course of something else I said that Clinton had taken MA by 27 points in 2014, and because Biden's more popular than Hillary was, I guarantee he'll carry MA by at least 30 points. This woman I don't know argued that trump's going to win in a landslide...including in MA! I didn't engage with her except for a laughing emoticon.

I thought it was interesting that she found my political post in an otherwise not-political thread. She might have been a bot, although her profile looked at least superficially legit. I was amused, anyway.
She could have been genuine - some people are just that ignorant/brainwashed.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

Defiant wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:46 am
Kraken wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:40 am As long as we're sharing anecdotes, yesterday I drew my first Facebook troll. I don't usually make blatantly political posts on FB because it's such a lousy forum for any real discussion, but in the course of something else I said that Clinton had taken MA by 27 points in 2014, and because Biden's more popular than Hillary was, I guarantee he'll carry MA by at least 30 points. This woman I don't know argued that trump's going to win in a landslide...including in MA! I didn't engage with her except for a laughing emoticon.

I thought it was interesting that she found my political post in an otherwise not-political thread. She might have been a bot, although her profile looked at least superficially legit. I was amused, anyway.
She could have been genuine - some people are just that ignorant/brainwashed.
Her home was listed as "Western Australia," so maybe she's ignorant of the finer points of US politics...or didn't know that MA is Massachusetts. The odds that trump could win MA are possibly 0.001%.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

Unagi wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:21 am
Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:19 am “There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America
Curious what "before this started", specifically, is in reference to here.
IDK what date that fellow has in mind, but the consensus seems to be that trump's last hopes died when his taxes were released last week, followed by his disastrous debate, and now his covid cluster. Let's hope he has really, really long coattails.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Unagi »

I wonder (amusing myself) what the scenario would be (that 0.001%) that would hand MA to Trump.

I picture an amazingly prolific serial killer that manages to actually kill hundreds of thousands of (D) voter before Election Day.

Or maybe Biden snaps and he goes on a killing spree, or something like that.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Unagi »

Kraken wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:53 am
Unagi wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:21 am
Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:19 am “There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America
Curious what "before this started", specifically, is in reference to here.
IDK what date that fellow has in mind, but the consensus seems to be that trump's last hopes died when his taxes were released last week, followed by his disastrous debate, and now his covid cluster. Let's hope he has really, really long coattails.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Skinypupy »

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:06 am Anecdotally, I've seen a quiet shift away from Trump among my friends and family. One that I would have normally thought unthinkable.

It started when I made three anti-Trump Facebook posts that I thought would draw a lot of ire, and instead I got likes from several people I thought for sure were firmly in the Trump camp. I only had one negative reaction, and that was from a guy I haven't talked to in over a decade.

Then I ended up in a political discussion with my dad, and while he didn't come right out and say he was voting for Biden, he strongly hinted at it.

It's hard to describe in words, but just little conversations I've had, etc. signify a shift. And while I know it's a tiny sample size, it's something real that I'm seeing in my circle.
The MAGAs in my circle seem to be going the opposite way, throwing as much shit against the wall as possible in the hopes something will stick. The flailing is...interesting.

“Biden is the real racist” seems to be the most consistent point.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Alefroth »

Kraken wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:50 am
Defiant wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:46 am
Kraken wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:40 am As long as we're sharing anecdotes, yesterday I drew my first Facebook troll. I don't usually make blatantly political posts on FB because it's such a lousy forum for any real discussion, but in the course of something else I said that Clinton had taken MA by 27 points in 2014, and because Biden's more popular than Hillary was, I guarantee he'll carry MA by at least 30 points. This woman I don't know argued that trump's going to win in a landslide...including in MA! I didn't engage with her except for a laughing emoticon.

I thought it was interesting that she found my political post in an otherwise not-political thread. She might have been a bot, although her profile looked at least superficially legit. I was amused, anyway.
She could have been genuine - some people are just that ignorant/brainwashed.
Her home was listed as "Western Australia," so maybe she's ignorant of the finer points of US politics...or didn't know that MA is Massachusetts. The odds that trump could win MA are possibly 0.001%.
Some of the most effusive Trump gushing I see comes from Nigerians. Their profiles seem to be legitimate, so I don't think they are part of a troll farm.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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WaPo
President Trump doesn’t want Africans flooding into his country. But let’s be honest. Who really does? Certainly not any other world leader of this era. Trump just happens to be the one bold or uncaring enough to say the quiet part out loud. He’s the rare white politician sparing us the trouble of deciphering what he might think. And Nigerians love him for it.
...
The data has been consistent for the past three years, and the most recent survey, published by the Pew Research Center in January, shows that almost 6 in 10 Nigerians believe that Trump will “do the right thing regarding world affairs.”
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Freyland »

Just to clarify for anyone else caught off-guard by the first paragraph in that quote, the article was written by a popular Nigerian author.
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Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Grifman wrote:“There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America
I trust you not, Edward J. Rollins. Rope-a-Dope is a thing. (Yes, I’m paranoid beyond any sane measure)

He’s saying they’re stupid solely because of the way the virus has been used as a political tool (and backfired spectacularly)? Or is it bc they actually seem to not believe (and behave as if) it’s a legit threat? Or something else?

I mean, totes agree with his assessment, just wondering if we agree for the same reasons.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Defiant »

Biden gave another town hall (video here if you want to watch it]). He did fine, but one answer annoyed me. When asked about unifying the country (in the last ~10 minutes of the debate), when referring to Republicans he said "it's always appropriate to question someone else's judgment, it's never appropriate to question their motive"

If this is really how he feels (as opposed to trying to say something meant to appeal to the voters), after years of being in the Obama administration and after years of the Trump administration, then I suspect we may just get a repeat of the Obama years.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Alefroth »

It's been around a while and he's used it before, so I'm guessing it's something he lives by.

I think, if you question someone's motives, you'll probably understand their judgement.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Defiant wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:40 am If this is really how he feels (as opposed to trying to say something meant to appeal to the voters), after years of being in the Obama administration and after years of the Trump administration, then I suspect we may just get a repeat of the Obama years.
Right now, I would give my pinkie toe for a repeat of the Obama administration.
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