Octopus Overlords

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:35 am Make politics boring again.

This is my most fervent wish.

Skinypupy wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:38 am

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:35 am Make politics boring again.

This is my most fervent wish.

These days R&P often has more traffic than EBG. Remember when we were a cesspool?

Make R&P a cesspool again!

The collapse continues - even Trump favorite Rasmussen sees the same thing:

https://twitter.com/projectlincoln/stat ... 53537?s=21

Republican donors ditch Trump to try and save Senate:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republica ... the-senate

I don't know if Trump's "I'm only pushing for COVID relief if I WIN!" statement was the drugs talking or Trump just deciding he's tired of being President, but either way, I think it's safe to say that the fire has hit the ammunition storage. There's no saving the USS Trump now...best to just salvage anything you can from the wreckage. If I were McConnell, I would concentrate on getting Barrett through and then bunker down, accepting that the next few years will be rough.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 5332388876

Love those PA and FL averages.

:O Did Georgia just flip?

It does that.

That 2.3 % lead for Biden in NC may not look like much, but in my eyes it's a huge shift. The polling has been very steady at < 1% lead for either candidate for the last few months.

I tend to assume that voter suppression in GA is worth more than one point in the polls (completely unscientific), so I tend to assume that the lead is going to need to be bigger if Biden's actually going to win GA. But it doesn't really matter anyway, since if Biden's competitive in GA then he's winning elsewhere.

Though it could have implications for the Senate races.

Little Raven wrote:I don't know if Trump's "I'm only pushing for COVID relief if I WIN!" statement was the drugs talking or Trump just deciding he's tired of being President, but either way, I think it's safe to say that the fire has hit the ammunition storage. There's no saving the USS Trump now...best to just salvage anything you can from the wreckage. If I were McConnell, I would concentrate on getting Barrett through and then bunker down, accepting that the next few years will be rough.

Scuttle!

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:35 amMake politics boring again.

The waking nightmare must end, and the nation needs a nap.

New England Journal of Medicine going out of their comfort zone just as Scientific American did over the summer...

Prestigious medical journal calls for US leadership to be voted out over Covid-19 failure

El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:33 pm https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 5332388876

Love those PA and FL averages.

Biden also leads in Iowa and trails by 1 point in Texas.

Grifman wrote:

El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:33 pm https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 5332388876

Love those PA and FL averages.

Biden also leads in Iowa and trails by 1 point in Texas.

Wonder what the electoral college numbers would look like in a scenario where Biden wins Texas...

EDIT: Wrong thread.

Grifman wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:00 pm Republican donors ditch Trump to try and save Senate:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republica ... the-senate

At what point does Trump just openly start moving campaign money into his own pockets, election be damned?

On the one hand, Nothing attracts him more than an easy grift. On the other, he’s incapable of admitting defeat. Which will it be?

Holman wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:40 am

Grifman wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:00 pm Republican donors ditch Trump to try and save Senate:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republica ... the-senate

At what point does Trump just openly start moving campaign money into his own pockets, election be damned?

On the one hand, Nothing attracts him more than an easy grift. On the other, he’s incapable of admitting defeat. Which will it be?

He's capable of failing and blaming other people for his failure. I don't have a level of confidence it will happen. But it sure has happened.

Also, he's been putting a bunch of campaign money into his businesses all along. Lodging, etc. No reason to stop that early.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:13 am Also, he's been putting a bunch of campaign money into his businesses all along. Lodging, etc. No reason to stop that early.

I imagine the election night watch party will be a several million dollar moneygrab affair simulcast at multiple Trump properties.

Potential collapse of Republicans across the formerly secure Sunbelt:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/us/p ... -belt.html

I get that some of them just can't vote for a Democrat because it's against everything they stand for (somehow)... but I'm okay with them being disgusted by what they did sign up for and not voting at all if that's where they feel they need to go.

I'm still monitoring the right and I'm developing a bit of concern about what I'm seeing. Check out the tweet below, first off if you don't know who Mike Cernovich is -- well be glad -- but as a quick backgrounder he is something of a bellwether for the edge of the rational side of Trumpism but knee deep in the white nationalism. There is a nice photo of him at the WH press podium throwing up the WP ok sign. So this is a bit of a lament.

That isn't the point thought -- it is the comments which are interesting. If you read down, you'll see deep delusion. The outcome of monitoring this and other posts like this is I start to wonder what happens if the election does land as a Biden landslide. That would help with the immediate problem of Trump declaring victory on election day. However I am starting to worry that if Biden wins *too big* that these folks decide the only way it could have happened is the fraud that Trump has been tweeting about. The comments I've seen indicate that many of these people think that Biden is bringing authoritarianism.

I'm hoping the segment gets posted but Katy Tur interviewed people in that trash pile part of Staten Island and she was hearing a lot of the same. The segment was pretty illustrative that insular communities have popped up. The Tur segment had many people espousing belief in QAnon theories such as the child sex trafficking rings. And ultimately there is plenty of evidence there has been some level of radicalization on the right happening. And then we have this pandemic on top maybe kicking up a notch over the next few weeks. It's a lot. Be prepared.

https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/13 ... 6198146048

I posted the various permutations a while back in one of these threads but regardless of the outcome, Trump will have a story and corresponding call to action and the true believers will buy it. Classic conspiracy stuff.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:17 pm I posted the various permutations a while back in one of these threads but regardless of the outcome, Trump will have a story and corresponding call to action and the true believers will buy it. Classic conspiracy stuff.

Right - I can't help but think the bubble pop for this one is going to be especially harsh. If it's close at least it'd approximate previous elections. Still I agree no matter what we'll have problems.

That's why all bets on there being violent chaos in the days that follow the election are smart. He wins? It's a mandate to act like a goon. He loses? We have to initiate a revolution and take back the government. No clear winner? They're hiding the truth and we must liberate people/groups/communities that aren't being heard.

It's going to be pants-on-head crazy.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:25 pmIt's going to be pants-on-head crazier

FTFW.

I agree that Trump has built a no-win scenario for Democrats. He wins and US democracy is fucked. Biden wins, he contests and fights, dragging his mob in. Biden slaughters him and it's a scam of epic proportions.

His cultists are beyond "political party" and have become an "uprising of idiocy" - I expect them to spend years lamenting the loss of their savior.

malchior wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:07 pm https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/13 ... 6198146048

I was actually quite shocked to see the Gen X support for Trump. Wish I could find the chart, but one posted earlier this week showed Trump with something like a 10 percentage point lead among Gen X.

Skinypupy wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:28 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:07 pm https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/13 ... 6198146048

I was actually quite shocked to see the Gen X support for Trump. Wish I could find the chart, but one posted earlier this week showed Trump with something like a 10 percentage point lead among Gen X.

That's news to me. Why, do you suppose? Biden's too Old Establishment?

Gen X remembers Reagan and young Trump as winners like Alex P Keaton. Old enough to have investments, young enough to likely survive Covid.

Yeah, I'm sure the older Gen Xers -the ones closer to the young Boomers are cultists. However, for people like me (the young Gen Xers) we're just like, whatever. Go F yourself.

Trump won the Gen Xers by ~3 points last time.

My guess would be that some previously Trump-skeptical conservatives that voted for Clinton or Third party have come home.

The shame of GenX is that we declared cynicism a virtue.

Holman wrote:The shame of GenX is that we declared cynicism a virtue.

Whatever....

Paingod wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:31 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:25 pmIt's going to be pants-on-head crazier

FTFW.

I agree that Trump has built a no-win scenario for Democrats. He wins and US democracy is fucked. Biden wins, he contests and fights, dragging his mob in. Biden slaughters him and it's a scam of epic proportions.

His cultists are beyond "political party" and have become an "uprising of idiocy" - I expect them to spend years lamenting the loss of their savior.

eh, I kind of think a no-win scenario that involves Biden leading by >10 points is a pretty bad no-win scenario, as scenarios go.

Paingod wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:31 pm His cultists are beyond "political party" and have become an "uprising of idiocy" - I expect them to spend years lamenting the loss of their savior.

Napoleon had an answer to that. He called for a "whiff of grapeshot."

It was effective.

WaPo/ABC poll:

Biden 54
Trump 42

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Ignorance is bliss:

https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/stat ... 90016?s=21

Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:29 am Ignorance is bliss:

Well that and the wide economic divide between people with a degree and no degree. Those people are getting financially wiped out.. The graph at the end is embedded in a PDF link so I can't extract it but essentially white working class was approximately 55% of the population in 1989 and had ~45% of income and wealth. They are as of 2016, ~45% of the population but their income is ~28% and their wealth is ~20% of wealth. It is easy to point out their ignorance -- that is a true to an extent -- but they are suffering the worst effects of the wealth distribution problems we have. The GOP and especially Trump went after them to build their coalition.