Octopus Overlords

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:03 am

Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:29 am Ignorance is bliss:

Well that and the wide economic divide between people with a degree and no degree. Those people are getting financially wiped out.. The graph at the end is embedded in a PDF link so I can't extract it but essentially white working class was approximately 55% of the population in 1989 and had ~45% of income and wealth. They are as of 2016, ~45% of the population but their income is ~28% and their wealth is ~20% of wealth. It is easy to point out their ignorance -- that is a true to an extent -- but they are suffering the worst effects of the wealth distribution problems we have. The GOP and especially Trump went after them to build their coalition.

Plus, they tend to be more religious and more racist.

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:03 am

Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:29 am Ignorance is bliss:

Well that and the wide economic divide between people with a degree and no degree. Those people are getting financially wiped out.. The graph at the end is embedded in a PDF link so I can't extract it but essentially white working class was approximately 55% of the population in 1989 and had ~45% of income and wealth. They are as of 2016, ~45% of the population but their income is ~28% and their wealth is ~20% of wealth. It is easy to point out their ignorance -- that is a true to an extent -- but they are suffering the worst effects of the wealth distribution problems we have. The GOP and especially Trump went after them to build their coalition.

It's still primarily ignorance. The GOP and Trump exacerbate that divide. If they're supporting the GOP because they are getting poorer, it's the height of ignorance.

I'm not necessarily placing blame, we know the GOP propaganda machine is very effective in that demographic. But it's still ignorance.

On the other hand here is a great analysis of the polling and scenarios where it could be wrong:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/ ... -the-polls

His point about the differential between Trump’s approval rating and Currently expressed voting preferences worries me.

Edit: However, at 538 Trump’s approval/disapproval rating seems in synch with the latest polling:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

The approval numbers are what always get me. Trump has an unshakable base because they refuse to see/believe/accept the negatives. Yet we've watched his disapproval rating fluctuate. That means that there are a percentage of people who have, at some point, seen Trump's real face and have disapproved publicly, then turned around and decided that they approve of him after all. They aren't the willfully blind, and they aren't the tear-it-all-down anarchists. They're people who turned back to Trump after turning away.

I dunno. Maybe it's just margin of error, but it always strikes me as odd.

His base needs to blame someone else for their misfortune. Trump offers the immigrants and China. He promises them winning, and they’re too misinformed to know it’s all lies. They thrive on wishful thinking (literally thoughts and prayers) and hate.

Also, scary Democrats. Biden's the biggest crook of all time and Harris is a communist monster.

Today it appears the ultra wealthy GOP have decided that they need to keep the focus on how Biden will destroy the Supreme Court. The theme today has heavily been the Democrats want to "pack the courts". Otherwise known as it's ok when *we* do it ruthlessly but not ok when they do it.

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/statu ... 0859521025

Trump's decided to de-classify Hilary Clinton's e-mails.
I understand his hatred of Clinton (don't we all ) but how is this going to help him win the election?
It has no bearing on Biden and Democrats aren't voting for him anyways.

dbt1949 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:48 pm Trump's decided to de-classify Hilary Clinton's e-mails.
I understand his hatred of Clinton (don't we all ) but how is this going to help him win the election?
It has no bearing on Biden and Democrats aren't voting for him anyways.

He thinks it fits in his absurd Biden is a puppet story line. Clinton pulling his strings is part of the cabal waiting in line to manipulate Biden including the socialists (e.g. AOC). He'll also be a puppet to Harris (ooh a black woman will really be President!). All he has left is his moronic cult. And as chief moron he thinks they'll save him.

Blackhawk wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:04 am The approval numbers are what always get me. Trump has an unshakable base because they refuse to see/believe/accept the negatives. Yet we've watched his disapproval rating fluctuate. That means that there are a percentage of people who have, at some point, seen Trump's real face and have disapproved publicly, then turned around and decided that they approve of him after all. They aren't the willfully blind, and they aren't the tear-it-all-down anarchists. They're people who turned back to Trump after turning away.

I dunno. Maybe it's just margin of error, but it always strikes me as odd.

Part of it is deep cynicism: "ALL politicians are equally bad, so I'll go with the guy who seems to be on my side."

There's literally a "Trump is awful, but at least he doesn't hide it" constituency here.

Holman wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:16 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:04 am The approval numbers are what always get me. Trump has an unshakable base because they refuse to see/believe/accept the negatives. Yet we've watched his disapproval rating fluctuate. That means that there are a percentage of people who have, at some point, seen Trump's real face and have disapproved publicly, then turned around and decided that they approve of him after all. They aren't the willfully blind, and they aren't the tear-it-all-down anarchists. They're people who turned back to Trump after turning away.

I dunno. Maybe it's just margin of error, but it always strikes me as odd.

Part of it is deep cynicism: "ALL politicians are equally bad, so I'll go with the guy who seems to be on my side."

There's literally a "Trump is awful, but at least he doesn't hide it" constituency here.

A conversation between two fellas...

Hey, sure he’s pretty awful but at least he’s not a lizard alien like Biden.

But what about Kamala? Is she a space lizard too?

Nah, I just hate black people.

Oh...I can get behind that.

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:42 pm Today it appears the ultra wealthy GOP have decided that they need to keep the focus on how Biden will destroy the Supreme Court. The theme today has heavily been the Democrats want to "pack the courts". Otherwise known as it's ok when *we* do it ruthlessly but not ok when they do it.

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/statu ... 0859521025

If someone doesn't answer a question, you get to answer it for them? He considers himself a journalist?

He's just telling it like it is.

Alefroth wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:56 pm

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:42 pm Today it appears the ultra wealthy GOP have decided that they need to keep the focus on how Biden will destroy the Supreme Court. The theme today has heavily been the Democrats want to "pack the courts". Otherwise known as it's ok when *we* do it ruthlessly but not ok when they do it.

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/statu ... 0859521025

If someone doesn't answer a question, you get to answer it for them? He considers himself a journalist?

"Do you condemn white supremacists?"

He writes for Politico so journalist is probably too strong a label anyway.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:11 pm

Alefroth wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:56 pm

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:42 pm Today it appears the ultra wealthy GOP have decided that they need to keep the focus on how Biden will destroy the Supreme Court. The theme today has heavily been the Democrats want to "pack the courts". Otherwise known as it's ok when *we* do it ruthlessly but not ok when they do it.

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/statu ... 0859521025

If someone doesn't answer a question, you get to answer it for them? He considers himself a journalist?

"Do you condemn white supremacists?"

I'm willing to.

My family is apolitical but this year my wife made me order a Biden/Harris sign for the front yard and it is not because she fell in love with Joe and I no longer wonder what it would be like if the POTUS was not a politician.

US President Donald Trump has won the support of the Taliban for his reelection bid, the Afghanistan-based militant group told CBS News on Friday.
The reason for this, a spokesperson told CBS, was that they hoped the incumbent Republican president would work on ending American military presence in the country.

Another Taliban senior leader even expressed serious concern for the president's health, following news of his diagnosis with the coronavirus.
"When we heard about Trump being COVID-19 positive we got worried for his health, but seems he is getting better," the senior leader told CBS News.

Not the Onion

The polls just keep on getting worse and worse for him. I REALLY hope they are right, but I'm certainly not feeling great until this nonsense is over.

Now yonder stands a man in this lonely crowd
A man who swears he's not to blame
All day long I see him tweeting so loud
Just crying out that he was framed

Screaming about great healthcare they will give. So um what's the actual plan?

Octavious wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:54 pm Screaming about great healthcare they will give. So um what's the actual plan?

Vote for Trump and you'll find out.

Alefroth wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:55 pm

Octavious wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:54 pm Screaming about great healthcare they will give. So um what's the actual plan?

Vote for Trump and you'll find out.

That's been the message for nearly five years, while still screaming it's Obama's fault.

Octavious wrote:Screaming about great healthcare they will give. So um what's the actual plan?

One of my wife’s dumb friends is saying that she’s voting for Trump because he will make sure that insurance companies can’t boot you for pre-existing conditions. Well done dumb friend.

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:31 pm One of my wife’s dumb friends is saying that she’s voting for Trump because he will make sure that insurance companies can’t boot you for pre-existing conditions. Well done dumb friend.

I used to be incredibly patient with people like that with the knowledge that I am wrong enough and can be taught and can learn. This last half decade has dried that patience. If you didn't donate genetic material to me, I can't anymore. I'm at a Rubicon and friends are being lost and relatives cut out. "We can disagree on politics but still be friends because that's what adults do" is a sure way to let me there is no point talking to you. It's code for "There is no conversation to be had. No evidence. No true facts will sway my beliefs. Other is not deserving of anything"... Or worse. It's a way to protect their bigotry from exposure.

I want to go back Facebook after the election. We'll see if I can. Isolation, I'm sure will have completely done a number on my ability to be civil in face of ignorance and its spread when this is all done as well. News is all I have, so it's all I have to talk about.

Unagi wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:34 am

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:03 am

Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:29 am Ignorance is bliss:

Well that and the wide economic divide between people with a degree and no degree. Those people are getting financially wiped out.. The graph at the end is embedded in a PDF link so I can't extract it but essentially white working class was approximately 55% of the population in 1989 and had ~45% of income and wealth. They are as of 2016, ~45% of the population but their income is ~28% and their wealth is ~20% of wealth. It is easy to point out their ignorance -- that is a true to an extent -- but they are suffering the worst effects of the wealth distribution problems we have. The GOP and especially Trump went after them to build their coalition.

Plus, they tend to be more religious and more racist.

Actually, that religious part is a common misconception:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ns/518340/

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:31 pm

Octavious wrote:Screaming about great healthcare they will give. So um what's the actual plan?

One of my wife’s dumb friends is saying that she’s voting for Trump because he will make sure that insurance companies can’t boot you for pre-existing conditions. Well done dumb friend.

I'm sure that person is super duper smart...

Grifman wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:00 pm Actually, that religious part is a common misconception:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ns/518340/

It's true that not all white working-class conservatives are religious, but it's also true that white Evangelicals (including those in the middle and upper classes) are overwhelmingly conservative.

The Hill has a good primer on the difference between various polls.

The RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight averages are a good approximation of where the race stands. The deficiency is that they include some bad polls and polls that are up to two weeks old, which makes them lag current conditions. But looking at the most recent polls can be a problem if the poll is poorly done — and the problem is compounded by the media’s preference for shock over substance. Media often will give time to polls with shocking numbers when the reality is those “shocking” numbers are very often an indication of bad polling.

Spoiler:

CNN has conducted the worst polling of any major news organization.

Grifman wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:00 pm

Unagi wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:34 am

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:03 am

Grifman wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:29 am Ignorance is bliss:

Well that and the wide economic divide between people with a degree and no degree. Those people are getting financially wiped out.. The graph at the end is embedded in a PDF link so I can't extract it but essentially white working class was approximately 55% of the population in 1989 and had ~45% of income and wealth. They are as of 2016, ~45% of the population but their income is ~28% and their wealth is ~20% of wealth. It is easy to point out their ignorance -- that is a true to an extent -- but they are suffering the worst effects of the wealth distribution problems we have. The GOP and especially Trump went after them to build their coalition.

Plus, they tend to be more religious and more racist.

Actually, that religious part is a common misconception:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ns/518340/

Data generally shows that as you get more educated, you are less religious. (with Christians bucking the trend a bit...)


https://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/26/in- ... -religion/

Saw the old nitwit in Florida tossing out stuff to the crowd and them eating it up...no masks seen. Maybe COVID ravages the flock.

https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1 ... 8422235138

Romney calls out Trump, Pelosi, Democrats, the media, etc.

Notable: He explicitly doesn't call out Biden, stating that he refuses to stoop as low as others. Maybe as close as we'll see of an endorsement for a current Republican politician.

Defiant wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:06 pm Notable: He explicitly doesn't call out Biden, stating that he refuses to stoop as low as others. Maybe as close as we'll see of an endorsement for a current Republican politician.

I've seen a couple people mad online that he's trying to "both sides" things, but I tend to agree with your assessment of Romney's statement.

I'm sure he'll wipe away the tears as he confirms the SCOTUS pick.

I don't think Olbermann deserves to be in the list. If you have to reach down that far on the left, the right list is gonna have to be a lot longer to show balance.

stessier wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:41 pm I don't think Olbermann deserves to be in the list. If you have to reach down that far on the left, the right list is gonna have to be a lot longer to show balance.

For real, is Olbermann even on TV anymore?

Scraper wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:06 pm

stessier wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:41 pm I don't think Olbermann deserves to be in the list. If you have to reach down that far on the left, the right list is gonna have to be a lot longer to show balance.

For real, is Olbermann even on TV anymore?

This is from wikipedia -

In January 2018, Olbermann returned to ESPN's SportsCenter program, expanding in May to some baseball play-by-play work.

On October 6, 2020 he resigned (again) from ESPN to start a political commentary program on his YouTube channel.

Scraper wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:06 pm

stessier wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:41 pm I don't think Olbermann deserves to be in the list. If you have to reach down that far on the left, the right list is gonna have to be a lot longer to show balance.

For real, is Olbermann even on TV anymore?

Agreed. On the one side you have the president of the United States doing X, Y, Z, W and on the other you have the speaker doing Y...and...um...some TV guy was also a jerk...

My first thought was that Olbermann is no different than a dozen pro-GOP personalities with far greater reach. My second thought was that Chuck Knoblauch beaned Olbermann's mom in the head.