Octopus Overlords

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 1:07 pm I don't put much stock in Newsweek or Nate Silver's poll analysis.

Read the article? It's not a Newsweek poll, it's an aggregate of national polls, which they even link to. No need to distrust this report.

I read it. It's still a Newsweek vetted article, and they still link to Nate Silver. My point that I don't trust either one still stands.

I have no problem with other people taking it at face value, I'm just saying I'm not going to get worked up over electoral college chances right now. These are all just snapshots, not predictors.

If you thought polling in ways that are statistically neutral was difficult, imagine trying to aggregate all those different polls, all of which use different methodology.

I'm not saying anything about this specific poll, I'm just saying correct polling is a LOT of work, and combining them even more work from knowledgeable statisticians.

I'm sure this will go well.



Trump agrees to debate Kamala Harris on Fox News

"I have agreed with FoxNews to debate Kamala Harris on Wednesday, September 4th," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. "The Debate was previously scheduled against Sleepy Joe Biden on ABC, but has been terminated in that Biden will no longer be a participant, and I am in litigation against ABC Network and George Slopadopoulos, thereby creating a conflict of interest."

Wouldn't want a conflict of interest now, would we?

To be clear Trump is trying to pull out of the agreed debate and change it to a Fox News debate with an audience (that he expects will cheer for him) while getting the media to report it as him "agreeing" to debate Harris.

Right, and there's no indication that the Harris camp has accepted these new terms.

FoxNews reports, quoting Trump alone, and off we go.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 8:42 am there's no indication that the Harris camp has accepted these new terms.

This. Though I can't imgaine she'd reject unless she has a great platform to say "Hold on, Fucko. Just because these are your terms does not mean they are "our" terms. We've agreed to nothing new. You think you've made new arragnments"

Does the NYT ever get sick of headlines that perform fellatio on TFG or perhaps is peeing on itself for him?

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 4:31 am I'm sure this will go well.



Trump agrees to debate Kamala Harris on Fox News

"I have agreed with FoxNews to debate Kamala Harris on Wednesday, September 4th," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. "The Debate was previously scheduled against Sleepy Joe Biden on ABC, but has been terminated in that Biden will no longer be a participant, and I am in litigation against ABC Network and George Slopadopoulos, thereby creating a conflict of interest."

Wouldn't want a conflict of interest now, would we?

George Slopadopoulos.

Trump is just so fucking annoying.

Actually. The idea that he appeals to people is the real thing. It's just unbelievable, yet here we are.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 8:42 am Right, and there's no indication that the Harris camp has accepted these new terms.

FoxNews reports, quoting Trump alone, and off we go.

I'm already mad about the follow up NYT headline of "Harris Declines Trump Debate Agreement" when she insists on the original debate, and it hasn't even happened yet.

Unagi wrote:George Slopadopoulos.

The same people that love this are the same ones complaining that the Dems calling them weird was "juvenile."

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 10:27 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 8:42 am Right, and there's no indication that the Harris camp has accepted these new terms.

FoxNews reports, quoting Trump alone, and off we go.

I'm already mad about the follow up NYT headline of "Harris Declines Trump Debate Agreement" when she insists on the original debate, and it hasn't even happened yet.

Did they really write that rather than something like alternate debate proposal?

"It's a trap." Trump will have the debate audience filled with MAGA-lackeys. If I were Harris I'd tell him to go fuck himself and debate an empty podium at ABC if need be.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 10:51 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 10:27 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 8:42 am Right, and there's no indication that the Harris camp has accepted these new terms.

FoxNews reports, quoting Trump alone, and off we go.

I'm already mad about the follow up NYT headline of "Harris Declines Trump Debate Agreement" when she insists on the original debate, and it hasn't even happened yet.

Did they really write that rather than something like alternate debate proposal?

The follow up headline that I wrote hasn't happened (yet), I'm just pre-mad about it.

Looks like she's already responded: I love the tone of her campaign. It's like Dark Brandon multiplied by 100.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:04 am "It's a trap." Trump will have the debate audience filled with MAGA-lackeys. If I were Harris I'd tell him to go fuck himself and debate an empty podium at ABC if need be.

Absolutely. Harris has said that she's going to show up no matter what on the 10th, and I assume she'll stick to that.

But Trump doing this gives him some options, though. If Harris sticks to the original debate / plan (which she probably will) Trump can show up on Fox News the weekend before, act like Harris is ducking him, and then give a speech in front of Fox News faithful (which will probably get some mainstream media coverage).

The markets looked a bit worried on Friday. Not very good news for Team Harris if it continues.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:10 am

I prefer Yellowking's post, without the X trappings.

The Meal wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:13 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:10 am

I prefer Yellowking's post, without the X trappings.

Well I think you have a dumb face.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:18 am

The Meal wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:13 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:10 am

I prefer Yellowking's post, without the X trappings.

Well I think you have a dumb face.

But you should see that tongue in action.

But Trump doing this gives him some options, though. If Harris sticks to the original debate / plan (which she probably will) Trump can show up on Fox News the weekend before, act like Harris is ducking him, and then give a speech in front of Fox News faithful (which will probably get some mainstream media coverage).

All that is true,but I still think he's just stroking his base.

What I really like about the message posted above is that I believe it's reaching a younger, more "connected" audience. Not only in the tone but that it's the message that is being posted on social media. News agencies will also pick it up and report it to the older folks (through a filter) on TV or in print, but I think that actual message is really targeting a younger (maybe less likely to vote) American - which is good.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:21 am he's just stroking his base.

YellowKing wrote:"It's a trap." Trump will have the debate audience filled with MAGA-lackeys. If I were Harris I'd tell him to go fuck himself and debate an empty podium at ABC if need be.

Seriously, there is a 100% chance I would be showing up to the ABC debate, and use the entire time to answer every question asked, without bullshit spin. And I would never mention Trump’s name once. I would do the entire thing as if he didn’t exist.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 8:32 am

To be clear Trump is trying to pull out of the agreed debate and change it to a Fox News debate with an audience (that he expects will cheer for him) while getting the media to report it as him "agreeing" to debate Harris.

That was insane, but the NYT fixed it pretty quickly. This is the current:

Trump Backs Out of ABC Debate and Proposes One With Harris on Fox

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:18 am

The Meal wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:13 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:10 am

I prefer Yellowking's post, without the X trappings.

Well I think you have a dumb face.

Well played.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:20 am But you should see that tongue in action.

Spoiler:

I expected a different The-Meal's-tongue-exposed photo to appear. I was very pleasantly surprised relieved.

So, 2024, it strikes me... will be an electoral college weigh-in on abortion-rights being a state choice vs. a national protection.


If that's the case, does that bode well or poor for Dems?

Trump is very proud that he handed the choice to the States.
Harris has ads saying she wants it to be back to federally protected.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:08 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:04 am "It's a trap." Trump will have the debate audience filled with MAGA-lackeys. If I were Harris I'd tell him to go fuck himself and debate an empty podium at ABC if need be.

Absolutely. Harris has said that she's going to show up no matter what on the 10th, and I assume she'll stick to that.

It's entirely possible that ABC cancels it though.

Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 2:32 pm So, 2024, it strikes me... will be an electoral college weigh-in on abortion-rights being a state choice vs. a national protection.


If that's the case, does that bode well or poor for Dems?

Trump is very proud that he handed the choice to the States.
Harris has ads saying she wants it to be back to federally protected.

I mean, everywhere they've been on the ballot, abortion rights have won. Even in deep red areas. That seems to bode well for Dems.

That's on the ballot alone, though. Having Trump on the ballot too complicates matters.

Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 2:32 pm So, 2024, it strikes me... will be an electoral college weigh-in on abortion-rights being a state choice vs. a national protection.


If that's the case, does that bode well or poor for Dems?

Trump is very proud that he handed the choice to the States.
Harris has ads saying she wants it to be back to federally protected.

If it is an electoral weigh in on reproductive right again, then I think it bodes well again for Dems. It will drive youth vote to vote and vote for Dems in swing states where there is a fear that state choice will take away personal choice and pile on health concerns. You hear more women talking about their ectopic pregnancy, etc... where they had been keeping things private heretofore. I've known more than one woman would have died with access to terminating a fetus, which include a close family member. Makes it all the more infuriating to have parents with blinders up on this.

A campaign that excites women and young people is a campaign that wins. And this holds even before you bring racial demographics into the calculations.

Many states are conurbations with a blue state on one side of the river and red state on the other or close enough to it.

Federal abortion laws are critical else we end up with weird 19th century style compromises where blue states have to return red state women under 45 in case they are getting an abortion.

Kamala is so far running a forward looking campaign even if she’s just rebranded Joe Biden.

But effectively it’s vote for an aristocracy of the 0.1% ruled by king Donald or the status quo where the country is run for the top 5-10%. Unless we change to a country where the vast majority of Americans are catered for - eg like we did at the end of WW2 when taxation was fairer - people will eventually vote for the aristocracy in disgust.

Maybe Donny will stay at home and let Harris have a free show to tell her plans and ideas. She should start by saying...Its ok Donny you stay home...this is for adults.

I watched clips and commentary from the Atlanta rally today and it seems like another disaster.

- Trump complained about the empty seats and made up some BS excuse about the venue only allowing a certain number of people in.
- Again brought up Hannibal Lecter
- JD Vance and Trump both made the claim that Democrats tried to kill him when the shooter was a registered Republican
- Continued to mispronounce Kamala Harris' name, though he apparently didn't talk about her all that much
- More slurring and stumbling over simple words
- Tired tirades about immigrants coming in from mental asylums because he doesn't understand what "political asylum" means
- Perhaps the worst thing of all, congratulated Vladimir Putin on the prisoner exchange

I wonder if they're trying to plant subliminal messages?

Great way to appeal to the youth. Recycle a 20-year-old catch-phrase.

I’m thinking maybe the Biden Harris swapsie was timed so that the Maga party would pick the most offensive vp possible thinking they had it in the bag.

Now they’ve picked the ultimate nose looking for an arse and nobody likes a suck up.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 10:19 pm I wonder if they're trying to plant subliminal messages?

Did they hold those up for DonOld or only pull them out for the couch potato?

YellowKing wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2024 11:06 am Looks like she's already responded: I love the tone of her campaign. It's like Dark Brandon multiplied by 100.

Turned on the TV this morning and... for the past 10 months it's been "the fed can't cut rates before the election because they can't make it look like they are working for Biden." Today, when it appears they overshot unemployment and inflation is almost at target and will likely overshoot at present rate, the first thing I hear is "be careful what you wish for. Cuts demonstrate a broken economy." Turned the TV off.

Also the Harris statement is exactly what I wanted.