Octopus Overlords

LawBeef is right. Here's a good summary from TurboTax.

pr0ner wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:31 pm LawBeef is right. Here's a good summary from TurboTax.

It doesn't appear to matter for LM.

Can I deduct my capital losses?
Yes, but there are limits. Losses on your investments are first used to offset capital gains of the same type. So short-term losses are first deducted against short-term gains, and long-term losses are deducted against long-term gains. Net losses of either type can then be deducted against the other kind of gain. So, for example, if you have $2,000 of short-term loss and only $1,000 of short-term gain, the net $1,000 short-term loss can be deducted against your net long-term gain (assuming you have one). If you have an overall net capital loss for the year, you can deduct up to $3,000 of that loss against other kinds of income, including your salary and interest income, for example. Any excess net capital loss can be carried over to subsequent years to be deducted against capital gains and against up to $3,000 of other kinds of income. If you use married filing separate filing status, however, the annual net capital loss deduction limit is only $1,500.

So if you have a Short Term loss, but no Short Term gain, the entire Short Term loss can be applied to the Long Term gain. It only gets tricky when you have both gains and losses of the same type - then you would have to settle up each Short Term and Long Term before applying any losses to the other. This makes sense since you don't want people applying Long Term losses to Short Term gains if there is a Long Term gain (at a lower tax rate) that it can cancel out first.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:57 pm Keep in mind that the tax rate for long term and short term cap gains are different so if you've had the CVS for over a year it's not going to be a 1 for 1 offset.

This is stuff I do not know or understand. My CVS is long term. I believe my TSLA is still short term. I haven't had it but a couple few months.

I was reviewing transactions in one of my fire-and-forget IRAs. I had some Celgene apparently and they were bought by Bristol-Meyers Squibb.

Last week for each share of Celgene I got $50 on cash, 1 Share of BMY (about $56/share) and a "contingent value right" (CVR) that was worth around $2.13. CELG was around $108 so no surprise in the total value.


What intrigues me are the CVRs. They are traded under BMY.RT (on AMTD, anyway). They way I understand it, if 3 specific Celgene pipiline drugs get regulatory approval by 2021, the CVRs convert to $9 in cash (or maybe $9 of BMY shares, not 100% sure). If all 3 drugs aren't approved, the BMY.RT are worth $0. They are like options on FDA approval.

Who knew?

I made my first sale ever today. I sold 2 of my 4 share of Tesla at +97% profit, so... short of taxes on short term gains (which I will worry about later, I have more than enough down shares in individual securities to counter) and the initial $7 commission on purchase. My two shares of Tesla are risk free!!!

So that's 2 shares of crazy exceed expectations out of a track record.

I still haven't dipped my toes into buying (or selling) options, even if I changed my accounts to allow such things months ago. I've started to put new money back in to the indexes, probably too late as they have defied expectations in 2019 but CDs are paying almost paying almost nothing and I have I've been ferreting money into them for a long time now (as the indexes and tech stocks, in particular, have defied expectations)

My personal investment performance on my retirement account last year was 28.5%.

Damn.

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:57 am My personal investment performance on my retirement account last year was 28.5%.

Damn.

+$228k change in market value for me, which sounds better than the percentage which was a bit lower than yours.

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:57 am My personal investment performance on my retirement account last year was 28.5%.

Damn.

My 401k claimed 29%. When I do the math, they seem to inflate it using their voodoo numbers quite a bit. As far as I can tell, they include contributions in that number and don't deduct their commission and maintenance fees in that report. My account *did* grow a good 28% in 2019 but a good chunk of that growth was the fact that I put a lot of new money in every year (More than I should, in all honesty)

My old 401k shows 31.80%

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:17 pm

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:57 am My personal investment performance on my retirement account last year was 28.5%.

Damn.

+$228k change in market value for me, which sounds better than the percentage which was a bit lower than yours.

My market value didn't go up that much, but I am hoping to crack $500k in total value this year (I turn 40 this summer).

I have an 8 year lead on you so that seems fair.

Certainly enjoying my decision to have doubled down on TSLA in June around $200. Figuratively. Didn't actually fully double down.

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:42 pm I have an 8 year lead on you so that seems fair.

I have two year lead on you and well, I did not have that kind of money at 40 and I did not grow my retirement by six figures (or anything near that ballpark) last year.

Still, it was a good year and if I could count on that growth every year, I'd hand in my resignation today.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:57 pm Certainly enjoying my decision to have doubled down on TSLA in June around $200. Figuratively. Didn't actually fully double down.

It was hard to buy for shares during that dip (at $220) but I also wished, even at the time, I could warrant more. Still I'm ecstatic turning $1000 in to $2000 and then cashing out $1000 in the course of six months. If only I had that sort of process with some of "stable and reliable" stocks I universally have chosen poorly on before committing myself to nearly 100% indexes and CDs. A TSLA buy at $220 was truly an exception to several years of my putting money away.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:23 am

LordMortis wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:50 am And up up up more it goes. I guess I should have bought when I wanted to both buy and sell at around $440 and sold half of my four shares. Overnight it looks like it was trading close to $550.

It'll come back down. If it doesn't, there are hundreds of other opportunities out there. I'm looking to buy puts but they are a bit too pricey right now IMO.

There's always the hedge against missing the boat: Sell puts. For example the Feb $440 puts are around $11.20. If it doesn't get below $440 or so, you keep the money ($1,120). If it does, you buy 100 shares at $440.

Jan 2021 $440s are $50.

I did expand my account to include the ability trade options last year and having broken the seal by selling my first stocks a couple of weeks ago, I think will dip my toes in to it soonish. But with an inexpensive stock... And after I insulate my CDs and indexes just a bit more. Having just put in my 2020 IRA contribution, I have to rest the rest of my savings a few months before sacrificing money to a learning curve.

My entire portfolio, testing the waters against a free fall.
my 2 shares of TSLA up 10% on the morning.

Morgan Stanley to buy e*Trade:

Morgan Stanley announced on Thursday that it would buy E-Trade, the online discount brokerage, for about $13 billion, in the biggest takeover by a major American lender since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Posting more for traders than investors. I won't touch banking with a lottery ticket, the industry is far too opaque for me to get a good sense of what's going on and how much fraud is happening based on 2008 and my experience with BofA.

The market's taking another massive hit today after losing 1k points yesterday. Currently down almost 800 points.

For the first time ever, I have money "laying around" (which is to say waiting to be cycled back in to CDs) during one of these dips. I have a order to rebuy my 2nd Tesla share if it drops to 745 and I've been buying 1 share of VT every time it falls another $.50

Yay me!

I'm seeing $1000s of dollars of my retirement dry up but my body and mind be willing, I'm not touching that money for a decade, so I'm seeing this as increasingly getting a bargain shop. TD Ameritrade removing the $6.95 per trade barrier makes buying 1 share at a time a viable thing.

Slow daily accumulation continues. The market opened to get me limit order for a share of TSLA and 2 more shares of VT. I'm digging it, even if I'm not digging it, even if I'm not digging an 8% drop across the board in four days. If these "opportunities" continue, I'm going end up completely out of money "laying around."

I started unloading last week. Disney on Monday (no knowledge of Iger's departures, I swear).

Probably liquidating some managed funds today depending on how this open shakes up.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:43 am I started unloading last week. Disney on Monday (no knowledge of Iger's departures, I swear).

Probably liquidating some managed funds today depending on how this open shakes up.

You and I are going in the opposite direction. That's not a good sign for me. TSLA continues to fall (along with everything else). It's going to be hard not buy a second share. I put in a limit for 1 more if it drops to $675. I'll still be money ahead (minus whatever crazy taxes I have to pay on my sales). Stupid gambling...

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:56 am Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

We'll see. Limit orders are neat though. I don't sit on pins and needles. I just put money I had "laying around" into an opportunity cost pool. We'll see if if it's an opportunity... or a cost... (With regard to TESLA. 3 shares total will be my limit and only because no matter how it shakes out, I'm in the black (minus taxes))

Edit: And two hours and one more share of TSLA later, that's the end of my "laying around" money. I'll be keeping what I hope is discounted shares of VT and set one of those TSLA shares to sell at $850. It's like I'm sitting at a high level craps table.

Couldn't resist joining you, LM. 2 more solidarity shares @ $686.

I hope not to drag you down with me. At least it's house money for me (unlike the VT I've bought over the last three days, which I would like to believe is actually investing and not gambling or at least that's the story I'm telling myself)

Also, it looks like SPY is headed to close at -10% in 5 days. Kinda wishing I had more money to reasonably throw, enough that if the dip keeps going I can continue to accumulate. Pay day is tomorrow. It's going to be hard to not transfer half my check and tighten my belt even further for the month. So hard I might not be able to resist.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:02 pm I hope not to drag you down with me. At least it's house money for me (unlike the VT I've bought over the last three days, which I would like to believe is actually investing and not gambling or at least that's the story I'm telling myself)

If it drops, it drops. And these are also house money for me, so I'm strapped in for the ride.

I wouldn't be a buyer at this point in time. I'll keep my DRIP's going, but that's about it. Coronavirus may just be getting started, but I also think that, as in 2008, that stressor will reveal other cracks. Maybe I'm wrong and I haven't sold anything yet, but I'd probably wait until at least the middle of next week to evaluate whether buying is prudent - and before buying ANY Tesla, make sure their solar panels from the merger aren't dependent on China (gigfactory with Panasonic manufactures in US, but I think a lot of parts in the supply chain are likely dependent on China - they used to be...). Remember that Solar City is a part of Tesla and supply chain disruption could crush that portion of the business which was losing money before the merge.

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:12 pm I wouldn't be a buyer at this point in time. I'll keep my DRIP's going, but that's about it. Coronavirus may just be getting started, but I also think that, as in 2008, that stressor will reveal other cracks. Maybe I'm wrong and I haven't sold anything yet, but I'd probably wait until at least the middle of next week to evaluate whether buying is prudent - and before buying ANY Tesla, make sure their solar panels from the merger aren't dependent on China (gigfactory with Panasonic manufactures in US, but I think a lot of parts in the supply chain are likely dependent on China - they used to be...). Remember that Solar City is a part of Tesla and supply chain disruption could crush that portion of the business which was losing money before the merge.

That portion of the business is inconsequential relative to automotive and energy storage at present. Also, the Panasonic panel manufacturing relationship has been severed recently.

That said, I don't disagree with your advisory not to buy just yet, in general. But you do you, I gotta do me. Tesla's about to begin deliveries (in two weeks) of what should be their most consequential vehicle ever.

A week and a few days ago a friend and I were discussing our plans for the next few weeks. He was going to short SPCE (bought puts) and buy LAKE. I liked the SPCE trade but didn't do it. He's had a good week. Me, not so much.

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:12 pm I wouldn't be a buyer at this point in time. I'll keep my DRIP's going, but that's about it. Coronavirus may just be getting started, but I also think that, as in 2008, that stressor will reveal other cracks. Maybe I'm wrong and I haven't sold anything yet, but I'd probably wait until at least the middle of next week to evaluate whether buying is prudent - and before buying ANY Tesla, make sure their solar panels from the merger aren't dependent on China (gigfactory with Panasonic manufactures in US, but I think a lot of parts in the supply chain are likely dependent on China - they used to be...). Remember that Solar City is a part of Tesla and supply chain disruption could crush that portion of the business which was losing money before the merge.

This may be my ignorance or my desire or my gambling but this does not fee like 2008. I felt panicky in 2007 about the coming of 2008 and my 401k advisor talked me out of pulling all of my investments... and then every thing lost 50% of its value...

As much as all of the shit that is going down politically and as much as we have no economic net because the removal of said net somehow became policy, this doesn't feel the same. Maybe it's because I'm not a debtor now. Maybe it's because my house never recovered its value so I am insulated from inflating house prices. Maybe it's because I can't see medical or student debt. To me this just feels like the continuation of correction that was stalled in 2014. I don't know where they bottom will be, but I'd be happy to take little bites on the way down if I could, having no idea where that bottom is.

I don't doubt the correction will go lower. I don't doubt it will ultimately over-correct. But not doubting and knowing are different things and I'm comfortable money going in now isn't being pissed away to market movers.

TSLA... well, TSLA is just gambling. Stupid gambling for that kind of money, but gambling. They are my BitCoin, my Tulips, but I've already made my money.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:25 pm A week and a few days ago a friend and I were discussing our plans for the next few weeks. He was going to short SPCE (bought puts) and buy LAKE. I liked the SPCE trade but didn't do it. He's had a good week. Me, not so much.

I keep looking at options trading but I keep getting put off by the scope of it. Probably because I don't intent to buy and sell and buy sell. I don't think I'd ever buy puts or short stock or whatever. That's a game that doesn't seem fun and a gamble that looks too easy to screw the pooch on.

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:31 pm

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:17 pm

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:57 am My personal investment performance on my retirement account last year was 28.5%.

Damn.

+$228k change in market value for me, which sounds better than the percentage which was a bit lower than yours.

My market value didn't go up that much, but I am hoping to crack $500k in total value this year (I turn 40 this summer).

Yeah, about this....

pr0ner wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:31 pm

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:31 pm

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:17 pm

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:57 am My personal investment performance on my retirement account last year was 28.5%.

Damn.

+$228k change in market value for me, which sounds better than the percentage which was a bit lower than yours.

My market value didn't go up that much, but I am hoping to crack $500k in total value this year (I turn 40 this summer).

Yeah, about this....

wait

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:00 pm Couldn't resist joining you, LM. 2 more solidarity shares @ $686.

FWIW, TSLA down another $20 in after-hours trading already today.

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:02 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:00 pm Couldn't resist joining you, LM. 2 more solidarity shares @ $686.

FWIW, TSLA down another $20 in after-hours trading already today.

Welcome to TSLA. $20 in either direction is nothin'.

Amen. $50+ in either direction is a slow day. That's why we had to come down 30ish% from the high before I'd look.

This was created for Tesla, I think. Over a decade early, but...

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:04 pm

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:02 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:00 pm Couldn't resist joining you, LM. 2 more solidarity shares @ $686.

FWIW, TSLA down another $20 in after-hours trading already today.

Welcome to TSLA. $20 in either direction is nothin'.

Yah, but that's in just the first 30 mins or so. $25 now. Everything else that I spot checked looks down as well. I'd guess that it could easily drop below $600/share tomorrow (IMHO, far more likely than closing above say $700). Maybe the market will rebound, but this is why I'm not ready to time the market.

I'd probably bet that the soonest we see a rebound is Monday, and that will depend on coronavirus updates over the weekend.

Pyperkub wrote:

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:04 pm

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:02 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:00 pm Couldn't resist joining you, LM. 2 more solidarity shares @ $686.

FWIW, TSLA down another $20 in after-hours trading already today.

Welcome to TSLA. $20 in either direction is nothin'.

Yah, but that's in just the first 30 mins or so. $25 now. Everything else that I spot checked looks down as well. I'd guess that it could easily drop below $600/share tomorrow (IMHO, far more likely than closing above say $700). Maybe the market will rebound, but this is why I'm not ready to time the market.

But you are timing the market. By trying not to time it. You're either investing on a regular schedule as funds come in or you're timing the market.

Also...

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:22 pm

LOL

I'm trying for the best of both worlds but "timing the market" on the way down knowing full well I have no idea where the bottom is but I'll for sure know I miss the rebound and I think it will bottom and rebound higher than it is now, which is all I really care about. I have no reason to believe the Coronavirus is a more meaningful trigger (nor the straw that breaks the cheeto's dulap) than Twitter tirades or easy to win trade wars or coffer draining after tax breaks without infrastructure building.