Octopus Overlords

Asking for $190M certainly didn't help his case.

Cybertruck in the wild. If anyone is playing Elon Musk bingo, you may have just won:

• Driving his prototype in public

• To a super-expensive celebrity sushi restaurant

• Edward Norton makes an appearance

• Prototype is not street legal

• Hits a traffic sign while making a left turn out of the parking lot

• Traffic sign reads "RIGHT TURN ONLY"

But was he late [to dinner]? Without a missed timeline, it's really not a Musk appearance.

Isgrimnur wrote: Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:32 pm

pr0ner wrote: Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:34 pm Elon Musk doubles down on his pedophilia allegations against Vernon Unsworth.

CNBC

A jury decided that Elon Musk had not defamed British caver Vernon Unsworth in a Los Angeles federal court on Friday.
...
In his testimony during the defamation trial this week, Musk apologized to Unsworth and said he did not believe the cave explorer was a pedophile.

Musk and his defense team, led by attorney Alex Spiro, argued that “pedo guy” was simply heated rhetoric and not meant as a statement of fact. They also argued that the phrase “pedo guy” is widely known as slang for “creepy old guy.” And they suggested that Unsworth was looking for a payday in court, and had not sincerely been harmed by the “pedo guy” label.

I guess he celebrated in LA and Malibu over the weekend.

So this new Cybertruck. It has a bent stainless steel body for simplicity in production.

How does this hold up to road salt in the winter? One of my points of interest for a Tesla previously was all the aluminum used in construction that wouldn't rust.

Supposedly this is some proprietary composition co-developed with SpaceX and used in/on the Falcon 9 (hence the '30X' designation rather than one of the traditional designations). But I haven't seen any specifics other than Tesla's claims of 'superior strength and endurance.'

So that's a long way of saying

If you can't trust an eccentric, mouthy billionaire, who can you trust?

non-P AWD Model 3s can get a half-second 0-60 boost for $2k. Damn I wish I stuck with my AWD order... OK, not really. I already need to replace the rear tires on my 16 month old, 9k mile car.

Yeah, I'm kind of glad I have an RWD so I'm not tempted. I mean, by any existing standard, knocking 0.5s off of a car that's already low 4 seconds for $2k is a 'good deal' (you'd jump a whole engine class in an ICE car for that, as it's a significant # of hp required).

But do I (or does anyone else) need it? No.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:15 am But do I (or does anyone else) need it? No.

Autocrossers, but they should have bought the P anyway.

So, as Tesla stock approaches $400 a share is weird that I both want to buy more (as if have $400 a pop laying around) and sell off half (aka two shares) of what I have. I'm a terrible investor.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:28 am So, as Tesla stock approaches $400 a share is weird that I both want to buy more (as if have $400 a pop laying around) and sell off half (aka two shares) of what I have. I'm a terrible investor.

It's always a tough choice with TSLA.

Seeing as it all depends on Elon's morning mood and coffee intake.

I know they have a truck, a pickup-truck, and a bunch of cars.

I am still waiting for the Tesla BUS. You'd think it'd be the logical extension of the Tesla TRUCK (not the Cybertruck).

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:59 am Seeing as it all depends on Elon's morning mood and coffee intake.

To some extent it'll always be that, but the company is starting to grow beyond 'OMG Musk is involved; what's he doing today?' They're now fairly routinely generating cash flow, the China factory is producing ~1,000 Model 3s/week, and next year should be over 500k vehicles along with the Y ramping up. The energy side continues to grow.

Recent competition introductions continue to demonstrate how far ahead Tesla is. The Taycan, for example, was to be the holy grail of 'the Germans are coming,' and it's pretty heavily outclassed by the S in most (not all, but most, and certainly the ones important to most buyers) regards. See also the ID.3's software troubles (they are literally producing the first 10k, parking them for months while they resolve software issues, and then physically visiting all vehicles to upgrade to the completed software). Even the Mach-E, which probably has the best in-vehicle software of any competing product I've seen, is not close to Tesla's software responsiveness.

Meanwhile Autopilot just got significantly better with the 2019.40 update, and Tesla just added a $2k near-complete-profit OTA option impacting hundreds of thousands of their cars.

They've (IMO) reached critical mass as far as being a self-funded company, and there is no realistic competition that can compete at Tesla's scale as we enter 2020. Could still always change, but the gap doesn't appear to be closing yet AFAICT.

The people that still hang on Musk's every word as though he is Tesla and Tesla is him largely miss the fact that the company has grown and solidified significantly in the past 18 months or so. In many ways, the Model 3 ramp-up disaster was an important piece that helped the company learn as well as get much leaner.

Surprising you all, I'm not planning to sell more than a small portion of my holding in the company in the near future.

Kasey Chang wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:08 pm I know they have a truck, a pickup-truck, and a bunch of cars.

I am still waiting for the Tesla BUS. You'd think it'd be the logical extension of the Tesla TRUCK (not the Cybertruck).

First the truck is the Semi to avoid confusion and second, mass transit is supposed to be the last piece of "The Master Plan Part 2"

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

Key passage underlined for emphasis.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:12 pm Surprising you all, I'm not planning to sell more than a small portion of my holding in the company in the near future.

I love the car. I do not have the balls to invest. If they didn't thoroughly suck at customer communication I might be on board, but that is far too big of a weakness to overlook. It's something that could so very easily be fixed if anyone in the leadership wanted to, but for whatever reason (money?) they don't. The fact that it has never been addressed is a huge red flag for me.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:46 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:12 pm Surprising you all, I'm not planning to sell more than a small portion of my holding in the company in the near future.

I love the car. I do not have the balls to invest. If they didn't thoroughly suck at customer communication I might be on board, but that is far too big of a weakness to overlook. It's something that could so very easily be fixed if anyone in the leadership wanted to, but for whatever reason (money?) they don't. The fact that it has never been addressed is a huge red flag for me.

I am not at all suggesting it's fixed (I've seen two people on our local group get told that their cars weren't ready for pickup while either en-route for pickup or at the friggin location. Unacceptable.). But they are making improvements.

My wife, uh, clipped the garage with the side mirror earlier this week. I put in a service request in the app. A total of 90 minutes later I had exchanged emails with Tesla Virtual Service, had an estimate approved and a mobile service appointment set for early next week. That is a remarkable turnaround from the experience last year.

They're not a robust company yet. Too much risk IMO. I'm not shorting TSLA but I'm not buying either.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:57 pm They're not a robust company yet. Too much risk IMO. I'm not shorting TSLA but I'm not buying either.

And to be clear, I wouldn't suggest others buy. My risk appetite for this holding is much (much) higher than my general tendencies. And I'm not personally buying any more at these levels, either.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:07 am

non-P AWD Model 3s can get a half-second 0-60 boost for $2k. Damn I wish I stuck with my AWD order... OK, not really. I already need to replace the rear tires on my 16 month old, 9k mile car.

The idea that a SOFTWARE upgrade can improve performance... Well... makes you wonder just how much "safety margin" did they engineer into the Teslas?

And we're not talking a small amount. It's somewhere around 85 hp additional to make this jump from what I've read. And the first performance improvement was free.

I was watching a video and it was noted that Teslas do not come with satellite radio. This blew my mind.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:25 am

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:15 am But do I (or does anyone else) need it? No.

Autocrossers, but they should have bought the P anyway.

On the commute to work yesterday on the beltway I was listening to an audiobook when a corvette roars up next to me obviously wanting to race. He roared ahead slowly to give me time to catch up, but 1. I was caught up in the book and 2. I work with spaceships for a living. I had nothing to prove to the dude.

stessier wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:42 pm I was watching a video and it was noted that Teslas do not come with satellite radio. This blew my mind.

Good.

Well, now I HAVE to buy a Tesla...

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:51 pm

stessier wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:42 pm I was watching a video and it was noted that Teslas do not come with satellite radio. This blew my mind.

Good.

How is that good? If you don't want to use it you don't have to subscribe. At this point the satellite hardware is so cheap that it can't save them much by leaving it out.

Yeah, I'm confused as well. I can't stand terrestrial radio. Seems like a dumb think to skimp on.

stessier wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:47 pm Yeah, I'm confused as well. I can't stand terrestrial radio. Seems like a dumb think to skimp on.

I doubt it's skimping. They just don't want Sirius in their cars. If Musk had a satellite network they'd have satellite nradio.

Keep in mind the cars come with TuneIn, which covers a crapton of terrestrial radio, podcasts, etc. In addition to Slacker and now Spotify.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:52 pm Keep in mind the cars come with TuneIn, which covers a crapton of terrestrial radio, podcasts, etc. In addition to Slacker and now Spotify.

Does it use data?

Yeah, which is included for a certain period, then $10/mo or you can tether.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:00 pm Yeah, which is included for a certain period, then $10/mo or you can tether.

I would still prefer a one-price-all-you-can-listen-to model.

stessier wrote:

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:00 pm Yeah, which is included for a certain period, then $10/mo or you can tether.

I would still prefer a one-price-all-you-can-listen-to model.

That's what it is, just not thru satellite.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:07 am

non-P AWD Model 3s can get a half-second 0-60 boost for $2k. Damn I wish I stuck with my AWD order... OK, not really. I already need to replace the rear tires on my 16 month old, 9k mile car.

Software update gave 8% power boost for nada.

Scraper wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:51 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:51 pm

stessier wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:42 pm I was watching a video and it was noted that Teslas do not come with satellite radio. This blew my mind.

Good.

How is that good? If you don't want to use it you don't have to subscribe. At this point the satellite hardware is so cheap that it can't save them much by leaving it out.

The same reason people complain about bloatware on their PCs and phones.

So even cars have paid DLC now?

Max Peck wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:42 pm So even cars have paid DLC now?

Correct. And have for some time.

At least it isn't horse armor.

Max Peck wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:47 pm At least it isn't horse armor.

Truth.

Still waiting for the headlight laser DLC, too.