Octopus Overlords

I think Coronavirus may be - because of the impacts on manufacturing which are the instigators of this current drop, and everything appears to point towards it getting far worse before it gets better, though the market will eventually have that fully priced in, the issue right now is that the market is really unsure how to price it, and the market hates uncertainty!

It may only trigger a correction (which we're already in), but the question is how much worse will it be before it gets better. I expect we'll see Trump panic (if he isn't already), which may or may not restore faith before other cracks open.

FWIW, I'm not trying to time the market - I have no stake in TSLA, though I do keep it on my watch list for eventual possible investment. I'm just saying that if I "were" a gambling man, I'd be staying put or folding right now, and not putting more money in the pot. As an investor (I'm a long-term buy and hold person), I do look at stuff I want to invest in for a long term future.

Word of advice. Don't look at your 401k. *ooph*.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:07 am Word of advice. Don't look at your 401k. *ooph*.

It's a good thing I don't need that money for another 15-20 years. Having a large balance makes the up years look stellar and the down week look downright depressing. 70% of a years salary virtually poofed this week.

coopasonic wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:32 am

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:07 am Word of advice. Don't look at your 401k. *ooph*.

It's a good thing I don't need that money for another 15-20 years. Having a large balance makes the up years look stellar and the down week look downright depressing. 70% of a years salary virtually poofed this week.

I'm about a year's salary before taxes and benefits expenses. About two year's salary of what I take home.

I moved in to stupid territory this morning. It's pay day, so why not transfer half of that to an account buy more! I kinda wish I had enough to pick another share of TSLA is it drops to $600, but if I did that then I'd no longer be in the black on TSLA, so I'm just picking up a another 2 VT shares every time it drops another $.50.

Still not buying. This is a good day to sit and watch.

Was in Fidelity and Ameritrade and both their web interfaces are timing out on trades. I'm guessing this means that a lot of retail investors are making moves.


ToS for Ameritrade is working.

Ameritrade had no problem taking my deposit or my limit order this morning around open. It did hang when I was trying to look at some charts.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:17 am Ameritrade had no problem taking my deposit or my limit order this morning around open. It did hang when I was trying to look at some charts.

It always happens on big market swings. AMTD was (is?) notorious for crapping out whenever market hysteria made everyone try to buy or sell.

I'm not even going to think about buying until Dow 19K.

I've been day trading with moderate sucess for the last few years. I have moved my portfolio into 80% cash this week. Luckily i did it on Tues/Wed for the bulk of my sales. I took a significant hit to do that; but I am very glad I did. I would be down much more if I hadn't. Also, I can always make money back as long as I have capital to work with. This week I took serious moves to protect that capital. I equate it to self amputating my left leg at the knee so the body may survive. I can always regenerate a new knee and leg. I am looking to exit another position that will move me to 100% cash. I usually have large positions in small # of stocks to try to capture strong gains.

To be honest, I am really scared that this Corona thing is going to spread further. I also think this has the capability to dramatically slow down global trade and the world economy. China, 'the world's factory floor", is not really on line and that is going to gum up the supply chain for many products and also jack up their economy. Now it's spreading pretty damn fast across the world. While I hate to be doom and gloom; I think this gets much worse until it gets better.

I probably wont re-enter the market until after the pandemic has subsided [WHO is saying we are on the verge of one]. I have no idea when that is; I am not even going to nibble at buying cheap gold plated stocks on discount [ie amzn, goog] today or next week.

I much rather re-enter the market when the game is back on, and there is much more stability in the market. We have no way of knowing or forecasting how bad this is going to get. Until the news headlines indicate the world government's have a handle on this; i am happy to sit on my pile of cash.

And... That's a wrap. Suddenly post close, everything is creeping up. I'm almost 0% down for the day (which looks like will be less than 10% for week, so yeah?)

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:19 pm And... That's a wrap. Suddenly post close, everything is creeping up. I'm almost 0% down for the day (which looks like will be less than 10% for week, so yeah?)

Yeah, Friday's post close is showing a fair amount of a bounce. Pessimist that I am however, I don't see it lasting through Monday morning. I think there will be more CV panic over the weekend to impact those green numbers this afternoon.

IMHO, some of that is likely due to the speculation that Trump will push for and maybe get another tax cut/interest rate drop to apply another short term band aid to the economy.

Significantly happier with TSLA at $730+. Of course everything could still go to the shitter this week.

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:51 pm Significantly happier with TSLA at $730+. Of course everything could still go to the shitter this week.

Most of my buys on the dip are currently in above where I bought them. That includes both shares of Tesla. If by some miracle Tesla jumps to 850 in the next few day I will one of my 3 shares will be converted back in to money. I don't see that happening but I don't understand any of this. I do know it picked a good time go back up. My pocketbook can't continue to buy on the dip. Talk to me again in April. I haven't technically overextended myself but last week was next an exercise in prudence for me and it will take at least month to level off... unless my tax return comes in and I don't set it aside for summer property taxes...

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:51 pm Significantly happier with TSLA at $730+. Of course everything could still go to the shitter this week.

In a few spot checks, after hours trading seems mostly down (but not huge) after the good day today.

Pyperkub wrote:

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:51 pm Significantly happier with TSLA at $730+. Of course everything could still go to the shitter this week.

In a few spot checks, after hours trading seems mostly down (but not huge) after the good day today.

I'm also fine with it at $758.

Man, I don't get it. Tesla goes below 700 and they are like SELL!!! Coronavirus, unsustainable, Berlin forests, china production. After one day of pullback, they are like BUY!!!! At $800 Tesla is a discount. It's an opportunity.

If they manage convince people shares are worth $850, one of my two shares bought last week goes, if they can convince people to get Tesla to $900 again then both shares go. While I would like to eventually retain shares, this market for this company is just nuts N V T S nuts.

It can't break $850 again this week, can it? That's just silly talk.

(Also, am I really seeing 2 year CDs at under 1% right now? Seriously?)

Do not listen to they regarding Tesla. As I've ranted for many years, media (and analyst) coverage of Tesla has always been, and continues to be, utter trash, with few exceptions.

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:44 am Do not listen to they regarding Tesla. As I've ranted for many years, media (and analyst) coverage of Tesla has always been, and continues to be, utter trash, with few exceptions.

They have paid for my three shares in full, precisely by not listening to them at every turn. I honestly value Tesla at the same $220 I paid for my share during the dip last year but I've got the fever. I both want to ride the train and make money on the volatility I can't grasp. I'm already kicking myself for not buying more when it was under $650, which take me out of my having paid for my shares in full for the privilege of paying 3 times what I think the stock is really worth.

LordMortis wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:56 am

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:44 am Do not listen to they regarding Tesla. As I've ranted for many years, media (and analyst) coverage of Tesla has always been, and continues to be, utter trash, with few exceptions.

They have paid for my three shares in full, precisely by not listening to them at every turn. I honestly value Tesla at the same $220 I paid for my share during the dip last year but I've got the fever. I both want to ride the train and make money on the volatility I can't grasp. I'm already kicking myself for not buying more when it was under $650, which take me out of my having paid for my shares in full for the privilege of paying 3 times what I think the stock is really worth.

Imagine my pain at not having gone all-in last summer under $200...

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:01 am Imagine my pain at not having gone all-in last summer under $200...

I wanted to buy more at $220 but I just couldn't warrant the risk. No matter how much I can tell myself the company holds that much value (or held that much value before releasing more stock), I'm still just an idiot and $1000 is a lot of money to me.

Edit:

Man if you have crystal ball, this is the time to use it. SPY is having 2%+ swing every day, sometimes multiple times in a day.

SPY currently up 3% on the day. After falling 2% yesterday after rates were cut. Ultimately taking us back to where we were on Friday when everyone thought the bottom was going to fall out over the weekend.

In the meantime more and more sectors are restricting workplaces over Corona which was supposed to be the catalyst for the drop.

I truly don't understand.

I'm not sure why you think you should. Despite being modelled as a rational actor, stock market participants have shown time and again that they are anything but.

Economics is a shared hallucination. It works because people believe that it works.

stessier wrote:I'm not sure why you think you should. Despite being modelled as a rational actor, stock market participants have shown time and again that they are anything but.

This.

Just got 5 shares of Brookfield Energy Partners today and plan on getting 5 of NextEra Energy Partners tomorrow.

Zaxxon wrote:

stessier wrote:I'm not sure why you think you should. Despite being modelled as a rational actor, stock market participants have shown time and again that they are anything but.

This.

For every seller you must have a buyer and vice versa.



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noxiousdog wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:21 pm

Zaxxon wrote:

stessier wrote:I'm not sure why you think you should. Despite being modelled as a rational actor, stock market participants have shown time and again that they are anything but.

This.

For every seller you must have a buyer and vice versa.

I mean, of course? But it's absolutely the case that the craziness (both ups and downs) we've seen lately is due to mass hysteria as described in the comic.

I bought 28 shares of Kroger at 28.60 to open the year. While everything else in free fall Kr just jumped to almost $34 a share. I'm having a hard time being the buy and hold guy when there is nearly a 20% gain in three months that I just don't see. Like I said before I think got the fever.

Edit: I put in limit order to sell at 33.65 but I missed my window, reality is setting in. Ah well, I didn't buy with the intent of selling anyway. I guess we'll check back later to see wild market swings swing market wildly and I a have a pleasant near $1000 sitting in my account.

Edit: Looks like Kr broke the plain I set sometime this afternoon. So I just put in a buy order for 28 shares when it falls back to $31. It's not a lot of money but it's money in the bank. Or taxes or something.

Zaxxon wrote:

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:21 pm

Zaxxon wrote:

stessier wrote:I'm not sure why you think you should. Despite being modelled as a rational actor, stock market participants have shown time and again that they are anything but.

This.

For every seller you must have a buyer and vice versa.

I mean, of course? But it's absolutely the case that the craziness (both ups and downs) we've seen lately is due to mass hysteria as described in the comic.

Maybe.

Program trading does a lot of it and real life volatility is super high.

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No maybe about it. HFT is part of it, sure, but if your position is that the hysterical headlines don't feed into it, especially when things approach historic levels, you're fooling yourself.

NASDAQ and S&P futures off 3% right now. Open could get rough.

Sitting on a ton of dry powder but nothing looks good right now.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:26 am NASDAQ and S&P futures off 3% right now. Open could get rough.

Sitting on a ton of dry powder but nothing looks good right now.

Some of my autobuy on the down is triggering. I'm OK wit that. I guess I picked up 3 more shares of VT at 72.92 at open.

I also figured now is as goodatime as any to learn options. My order for 1 option for Ford for $7 on April 24th at for $.31 (for a total of $35ish) went through at open. Much like they Lions' owned by the family, I have a hard time keeping Ford from continuing to hurt me. I got a month and a half to figure out options work or lose $35. I have no intention of increasing my F for the long term. I can show you where they touched me on the doll but I don't think you want to know.

I also put in orders for 1 AAPL at $280 and 1 MSFT for $150 (share not option). Those look like they might hit today.

Edit: after an hour, it's a bit of a bump so none of my other stuff looks like it will go through. And I'm OK with that too. I now have a new interface to study and learn... Options Exposure... Fun.

Edit: coming on lunch... in for penny... I put in asks for single shares of COST at 270, UNP at 140, an LOW at 99 in addition to my rebuy of KR ar 31, AAPL, MSFT, and hitting VT for a single share at every -.50 rung on the way down to $70 and after recommitting my less than 1% on CD cycle. That's potentially every bit of non committed money at my disposal at least through the end of March. So if everything hits the shitter, I'm out and breaking all my rules about "no more single equities. Index. Index. Index." Prepare to hear me whining about my stupidity later.

Gotta admit it's fun (for now. Probably because volatility has made me money on my first ever sales), though it vies for my attention (and wins) which I can't give.

Zaxxon wrote:No maybe about it. HFT is part of it, sure, but if your position is that the hysterical headlines don't feed into it, especially when things approach historic levels, you're fooling yourself.

You really think that the gigantic portfolio money mangers are making decisions primarily based on headlines?

I find that hard to believe.

And not all program trading is HFT. A lot of it is black box shit with hedging and derivatives and who knows what else.

Change it to

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:12 am You really think that the gigantic portfolio money mangers are making decisions primarily based on headlines being part of the herd?

And I do. I don't know how much it moves the needle but I think it is a factor. The Internet suggests they follow the herd much more than individual does and if it's on the Internet and it confirms my bias it must be true.

Yeah, what LM said. Do I think they're all 'caught up' in the headlines (ie believe the bullshit)? No, certainly not all (or even most) of them. But they are able to make a buck [front]running with the herd, and yes, they absolutely do it.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:32 am Yeah, what LM said. Do I think they're all 'caught up' in the headlines (ie believe the bullshit)? No, certainly not all (or even most) of them. But they are able to make a buck [front]running with the herd, and yes, they absolutely do it.

I also think they are more prone to try and avoid losing more bucks and worrying about appearances of making enough bucks or losing fewer bucks. Again, I read it on the Internet and it confirms my bias.

I have 100 shares of INO. Not bragging here, I've had them for at least 5 years with an average price of $10.15. they have been underwater most of that time, it's just been such a small position that I never bothered with closing. I do check it occasionally and I should have known it would blow up on Covid. It does all the time as they promise stuff they don't deliver on. Did on MERs, Ebola, etc. Kicking myself for not loading up options when this all started percolating.


It's up 45% today on another promise.