Octopus Overlords

The economic argument that Covid-19 could trigger stagflation:

Is it possible to buy goods and services that do not exist? This existential question was raised by the Fed’s actions March 3. Cutting their target interest rate by 50 basis points sends two messages. First, the Fed believes that current conditions are very contractionary. Second, the Fed is trying to promote confidence. This will not work...

...You can see the problem. Increasing employment also causes the price level (inflation rate) to rise.

OK, suppose the folks working on policy decide to fight inflation. Figure 8 shows what happens then...

...Oops! GDP falls. Which means employment falls. By definition, unemployment rises.

Stagflation presents policymakers with real dilemmas. They can only solve one problem by making the other worse.

A quick peek this morning before heading off to meetings all day (who does that on day after time chagne?) It looks like a ton of my limit orders will have been placed at market open. If I had time I'd arrange to make more (like putting in for a 4th TSLA share). Alas I don't. And that's probably good. While fortune favors the bold, it may get silly.

Sitting on some .SQQQ200320C22 from Friday.

S&P and NASDAQ futures down 4-5% atm.

Also, not sure I completely understand forex but the Euro is up 1.5% on the USd and the USD is up 5.5% on the MXN peso. (EUR/MXN is consequently up over 11%).


Like I said, I don't understand exactly what that means but it seems that crap rolls downhill.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:32 am It looks like a ton of my limit orders will have been placed at market open.

By placed you mean executed, right? Kind of scary.

Circuit breaker hit on S&P.

The spread on that SQQQ call is $5.20x$15.20.

Today has the potential for a wild ride.

This should be a fun week.

And by 'fun,' I mean terrible but interesting.

My dad's account is down a mere 2%. So much cash, I'm going to call him the Oracle of Knoxville. Granted, he was about a year early.


Oil stocks are getting destroyed.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:49 am Oil stocks are getting destroyed.

My world's smallest violin is playing a sad tune for them.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Also, not sure I completely understand forex but the Euro is up 1.5% on the USd and the USD is up 5.5% on the MXN peso. (EUR/MXN is consequently up over 11%).


Like I said, I don't understand exactly what that means but it seems that crap rolls downhill.

I think that investors think that the euro is a better hedge against US monetary policy panic actions.

LawBeefaroni wrote:My dad's account is down a mere 2%. So much cash, I'm going to call him the Oracle of Knoxville. Granted, he was about a year early.


Oil stocks are getting destroyed.

MBS purge appears to have had an oil policy impact is my understanding.

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:57 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:49 am Oil stocks are getting destroyed.

My world's smallest violin is playing a sad tune for them.

Apparently the Saudis launched a price war against Russia. Oil is now below $30/bbl.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:32 am

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:57 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:49 am Oil stocks are getting destroyed.

My world's smallest violin is playing a sad tune for them.

Apparently the Saudis launched a price war against Russia. Oil is now below $30/bbl.

Somewhat unfortunately, the ones most likely to experience immediate pain are the US drillers.

stessier wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:36 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:32 am

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:57 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:49 am Oil stocks are getting destroyed.

My world's smallest violin is playing a sad tune for them.

Apparently the Saudis launched a price war against Russia. Oil is now below $30/bbl.

Somewhat unfortunately, the ones most likely to experience immediate pain are the US drillers.

At least it will be cheaper to live out of my car while I wander from Walmart parking lot to Walmart parking lot.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:22 am

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:32 am It looks like a ton of my limit orders will have been placed at market open.

By placed you mean executed, right? Kind of scary.

Out of the first round of requirements for the day and taking lunch so I get peek again. All but two of my limit orders "executed". If turned around and sold them right now, I'd probably be up about 2% or more in three hours (but down from purchases on last weeks dip and recovery cycles). But the goal to not sell but rather to buy and hold as opptunity. The goal is long term opportunity and the belief that while this may not be the bottom, it's comfortably under where we will "recover" to when things settle down. So for now Im pretty happy. Ask me again when it dips another 10% and recovery is nowhere in sight because the safety net is exhausted.

1 UNP 140.00
1 LOW 95.00
8 VT 68.50
1 MSFT 150.00
1 AAPL 263.50
28 KR 30.73 (Replaces the 28 shares I sold at around $34. I didn't want to sell them but the bump was too ridiculous not to let go)

I still have order for single units of DIS and COST that aren't like to hit if they didn't hit pre-market.

I adore the commission mostly free trading.

I am not opposed to seeing a lighting up swing and getting rid of everything but VT. Gambling may be stupid but it is fun. My old man called to tell me he bought sympathy shares of TSLA this week just like Zax. I didn't care for that idea. Losing my money is one thing. Someone else losing money based on my stupid is another.

My ultimate goal is still to ride the indexes to my doom for several years and VT is the index fund I am current working on, so I'm feeling alright.

Sold the SQQQ calls. Looking to trade them a bit more. Next opportunity is if there is a rally around close.

Just looked up SQQQ. Wow. Making calls on that. That's a deep game. No thank you.

Edit

Next opportunity is if there is a rally around close.

That does not look like it's going to happen. Quite the opposite, actually.

Also, it looks like I bought one share of DIS at 105
All that remains it is 1 share of COST at 270

WHEEEEEEEE goes all my money. In spite of previous downs and buying on the dip the value of my account dropped over 5% today.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:20 pm Just looked up SQQQ. Wow. Making calls on that. That's a deep game. No thank you.

It's just a triple short NASDAQ ETF. Whatever QQQ does, it does the opposite times 3. On a short term basis, of course. Long term it bleeds money because of the fees and costs and rebalancing. It's my go-to one or two day QQQ contrarian move.

Heard about this company on NPR this morning (or maybe just the California Report) - Inovio

Anyone else looking at NASDAQ:INO?

If pre-market is any indicator of the day to come I might put in limit order to sell

1 UNP 140.00
1 LOW 95.00
1 MSFT 150.00
1 AAPL 263.50
1 DIS 105.00

But I'm totally not sure what price to set and I need to decide before I get whisked away to grinding my nose on the stone.

Edit: decision made.

Through Monday:

1 UNP 160.00
1 LOW 105.00
1 MSFT 175.00
1 AAPL 315.00
1 DIS 135.00

I don't expect any will sell if any do. Bonus, I guess.

Read reports that yesterday was a very heavy buy day for "Retail Investors" who specfically bought MS, Apple, Inovis, and Tesla. Looks like I'm a retail investor. (My dad rounds out the quartet here who bought an March 20 call for Tesla yesterday. My mom is going to kill me for talking to him about Tesla. Hopefully, he sold on opening this morning and made his one time $4000+ and then doesn't see buying and selling Tesla options as easy money)

Pyperkub wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:23 pm Heard about this company on NPR this morning (or maybe just the California Report) - Inovio

Anyone else looking at NASDAQ:INO?

I have it. Posted somewhere about it. Short version, I've had it for long time and am just now getting out from underwater in it. Not a fan but it's a small enough position that I've just let it sit.

Looks like I've mentioned it a few times. First mention.
Most recent.


Can't really recommend it other than speculation. It always has runs around outbreaks/PR and then comes back down. Unless you like their non-outbreak pipeline it's just a momentum play.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Looks like I've mentioned it a few times. First mention.
Most recent.


Can't really recommend it other than speculation. It always has runs around outbreaks/PR and then comes back down. Unless you like their non-outbreak pipeline it's just a momentum play.

For me, I liked the idea of their tech. Additionally, it seems like their tech could break through some of the FUD around vaccines, IMHO.

Took a small position this morning (200 shares) as an investment in that tech.

Thanks!

S&P and NASDAQ are sitting around +1% right now.

Not much of a rebound.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:23 am S&P and NASDAQ are sitting around +1% right now.

Not much of a rebound.

Quite the opposite, it's less than half of what the gain was pre-market and seems to still be trending down.

Fascinating stuff that I don't have time to watch.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:23 am S&P and NASDAQ are sitting around +1% right now.

Not much of a rebound.

I guess that rally waited until 15:45. And up up up it goes. A few of my sells orders were almost triggered (as of 2 minutes to close)

Futures off around 3%.

LordMortis wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:58 pm I guess that rally waited until 15:45. And up up up it goes. A few of my sells orders were almost triggered (as of 2 minutes to close)

and down, down, down...

I so wish my triggers would have hit at the end yesterday. I could buy back today. This turbulent market could be making me about $70 every other day on my silly one stock at a time purchase/sell if it just nudged a tiny bit further. I'd be happy to buy or sell as it bounces back and forth but my happiness indicators are apparently just a little too greedy. Like a tiny bit higher at close yesterday would have triggered a bunch of sales that in turn would see me buying them all back this morning.

So much money is being made and lost in these last few weeks.

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:57 pm

Does that last column means how long it takes to get back to 0%?

339 > 275 = 19%. So if we're two weeks in does that mean we have about 415 more days of this? (I also don't think we're at the bottom) I hope the bottom is around 25% but I have no rational thought process for my hopes or beliefs and I still have faith we're not borked a la 2007 (2008). I might be suffering from delusions.

stessier wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:04 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:57 pm

Does that last column means how long it takes to get back to 0%?

I believe that's time to the bottom.

IMO we have another bounce or two of "buying on the cheap". Then we'll get to see where the bottom really is.


I've been trading in and out of SQQQ on the volatility not not establishing any new long term positions. Currently in 200320C21.

SPY $272.10 16.32 (5.66%)
[Freddie Mercury]We're all waiting the hammer to fall[/Freddie Mercury]

Less than 1.5% away and dropping.

Up 80% on the SQQQ calls and suddenly having a hard time selling because it's becoming more of a hedge than I wanted.

I can only assume all of the end of the day news starts sinking and and tomorrow, Friday, and Monday are all gonna suck for people wanting to get out or living on margins. Of course, I'm... always wrong.... I really think all of the Covid19 in Sports venues is the panic button.

Gold was down. Bitcoin was down. This tells me margin calls and everyone just selling everything to try to try to get to cash.


I held my SQQQ overnight. Something I normally wouldn't do but if we wake up tomorrow and SHTF I want one green tick.

In for this much of a drop, I might as well ride it to the bottom and buy with what cash reserves I have by then.

Dow futures down another 1000.