Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 2:43 pm

pengo wrote:Can someone explain to me, when its reported that the Central banks release money to the markets who gets this money? How does one increase the supply of money? Surely they aren't just printing off bills and giving them to various banks?

The smaller banks get it at the discount, or overnight rate. It allows them to keep liquidity and continue loaning money.

The money supply increase is trickier.

If I give Bank of America $1,000, they can give Chase $10,000. Then Chase can give Acme $100,000. What happens at each step is that Chase is assuming I (and 10 other people) won't come ask for our money at the same time. As such, if the central banks give the smaller banks low interest loans, it allows them to continue to make other loans in case I and my fellow depositors come ask for our money.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 4:22 pm

MSFT numbers looking excellent on first look...

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 5:03 pm

LOL.

I still chuckle about that video in your sig from time to time. Heh.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 5:11 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:LOL.

I still chuckle about that video in your sig from time to time. Heh.

Yeah, I used to only laugh at Ballmer. Now...I'm rooting for him. Still a classic piece of video. I have a copy on my 770 so I can play it where ever I am.

I put 1/3 of BA into MSFT. After today, I wish it was all of it. The rest went to SVLF and LLNW.

BA might have bottomed around $93, BTW. I'm still watching.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 6:34 pm

I picked up a little bit of BA the other day when it was at $94 or so (or was that yesterday). If it tanks, it's on your head Lawbeeef!

Truth be told, I did quite a bit of homework on BA before buying, and it looks great anywhere below $95 to me. This is one of those I plan to hold for many years.

My difficult investing question of the day: At what point, if ever, do I sell my shares of ISRG (Intuitive Surgical)? Outta control, that one. Kicking myself for selling some on the way up, too, but at least I got in when it was obscenely underpriced. I keep running the numbers and I am coming back with what seem to be insane valuations - $650, $785, etc. If they can keep profit margins up....watch out! Sky's the limit I think.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 10:02 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:I picked up a little bit of BA the other day when it was at $94 or so (or was that yesterday). If it tanks, it's on your head Lawbeeef!

Truth be told, I did quite a bit of homework on BA before buying, and it looks great anywhere below $95 to me. This is one of those I plan to hold for many years.

My difficult investing question of the day: At what point, if ever, do I sell my shares of ISRG (Intuitive Surgical)? Outta control, that one. Kicking myself for selling some on the way up, too, but at least I got in when it was obscenely underpriced. I keep running the numbers and I am coming back with what seem to be insane valuations - $650, $785, etc. If they can keep profit margins up....watch out! Sky's the limit I think.

I'm thinking BA is rangebound until January. At least, that's my target. I'll work the LLNW/SVLF I got with BA money.

I haven't followed ISRG but I'm in the same situation with POT. I guess it all depends how much you have and how much you're up. And what risks to business are. It's never bad to take some profits.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:46 pm

BA is looking strong and the $7B buyback announcement yesterday was pretty big news.

Since selling BA, MSFT is up 17% for me, LLNW up 12%, and SVLF up 6% (in my Ameritrade account--in Zecco I only have SVLF and have a sell order in right now for an +8%). BA is a few bucks below where I sold it. I'm tempted to sell everything above and get back in to BA.

Tomorrow should be quite interesting.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 10:07 am

Before Fed, SVLF up 7% on earnings. Flipped it yesterday in Zecco

, kept it in IRA

. But, in Zecco, used the proceeds to get CVLT during regular hours yesterday, up 14% on earnings

.

Since it's a really good day so far for me, Bernanke will fuck it up and announce no cut.

That or they'll go 50 points and everything will be up, whiting out my gains.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:42 pm

Is the OIC just you and me now, Lawbeef?

What happened to our guru? He came, he wrote a kick ass post, then we never heard from him again. Lurking? Laughing? Scorning?

I am trying to buy more BAC if it keeps getting beat down. Starting to slowly turn my portfolios to more conservative holdings (BAC, BA, MMM, JNJ) that have been beat down, hopefully represent good value plays, and pay a dividend.

WFMI (Whole Foods Market) flummoxes me. I can see both the bull and the bear perspective very clearly on this one more than any other holding. Lots of upside, and plenty of downside potential too. I guess at this point I am speculating. The company is well run, fundamentals look good, but can something that caught on so well in larger, well educated population masses, be extended (successfully) to more regions that are less dense in population, as well as more dense in terms of education? (co. uses the education metric to determine new store locations) Time will tell.

Problem is, can they continue to grow outside their traditional locales? What happens when they try to come into the market in my city, for instance, which is small, and relatively uneducated? It will be interesting.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:03 pm

I'm staying out of banks and financials for now. I have my long terms already in place (UTX, HAL, PG, HTE, AOD, SPR and now MSFT I guess) and I'm playing in the speculative account. I was tempted by C for a while but then decided not to mess with it.

Don't know if you did anything with TUES but it's having a good day on earnings and raised guidance. Still my biggest loser but a bit of hope that at least the dividend will still be paid.

Just waiting for 14:15 EST now.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:16 pm

I've stopped watching my portfolio, I don't want to panic like everyone else and pull out of the market.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 2:14 pm

SpaceLord wrote:I've stopped watching my portfolio, I don't want to panic like everyone else and pull out of the market.

Smart.

One thing I have not been able to do in my relatively brief investing years (actively started in 2001) is to NOT watch my portfolios. (that's a double negative I think...I mean I can't stop watching my ports)

Fortunately one thing I have learned to do is to watch constantly without panicking, so I guess it evens out.

PS - Lawbeef - new contest (Pick the Scariest Stock) on CAPS if you are interested in trying to win a free subscription to any TMF newsletter.

http://caps.fool.com/Contest/20828/index.aspx

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 01, 2007 12:09 pm

Picked up flip position of SPR at the open with proceeds from yesterdays CVLT flip. Big down day, SPR was red with great earnings.

MSFT continues to amaze.

And today's schadenfreude: CROX.

glr200 · Post by **glr200** » Thu Nov 01, 2007 12:20 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: And today's schadenfreude: CROX.

Wow. I watched CROX go from $40 a few months ago to $70. Down $22 so far today.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:16 am

Watching PEG, SRE, HPY today. Like SPR, all raised guidance yesterday and were fairly flat. SRE is my favorite of the 3.

Dumped SIMG yesterday for some cash on hand today. Got lucky there, it's pulling a CROX today.

FWIW, if anyone is on Zecco, all my trades in that account are verified in ZeccoShare.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:28 am

Picked SRE to outperform in CAPS a while back...been watching to add to my real port but have not pulled the trigger yet. I like it a lot too.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:25 am

What you guys rekon about the rumours the US economy will go into recession next year?

Also I love how the Australian Dollar is on track for parity for the USD, some analysts also rekon we might end up being worth more!

Thats great news for US exports, funny who knows maybe all your manufacturing jobs lost to china might end up coming back if the USD keeps devaluing!

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:43 am

Financials are getting absolutely destroyed. WM is now yielding 9.33%, with a PE under 9.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:53 am

noxiousdog wrote:Financials are getting absolutely destroyed. WM is now yielding 9.33%, with a PE under 9.

Yep...time to buy! Adding more to my BAC (Bank of America) position today or Monday.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Nov 02, 2007 12:10 pm

pengo wrote:What you guys rekon about the rumours the US economy will go into recession next year?

Despite the fact that I love to follow macro indicators, I admit that's really not my thing. I have gut feeling that 2008 will be tough but I will continue to play it simple: find good stocks, buy them, don't marry them, take profits.

Carpet_pissr wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:Financials are getting absolutely destroyed. WM is now yielding 9.33%, with a PE under 9.
Yep...time to buy! Adding more to my BAC (Bank of America) position today or Monday.

I'm applying the anvil rule to financials right now, since they're acting like one. It's easier to pick an anvil up off the ground than it is to catch it on the way down.

When financials drag everything else down, I look at everything else.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 10:59 am

Yeah, maybe I will wait a bit to buy more BAC to see if it goes down significantly on the C news this morning (writing down billions MORE today). Ouch for C.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 11:55 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:Yeah, maybe I will wait a bit to buy more BAC to see if it goes down significantly on the C news this morning (writing down billions MORE today). Ouch for C.

Prince is out finally. I'm still staying away, but it's a positive.

Watching LLNW (reports after the bell), SIRI (for an entry), SPR (for an exit or any sign of life). SIMG bounced but I'm not biting.

DEIX is a writeoff.

[Long: Zecco, TDA]

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 1:48 pm

Grabbed some JAVA.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 3:20 pm

Damn you Lawbeef. I don't need more stuff to buy!

Sigh...ok, I'll bite. WHY are you looking at Java? It has passed my quick n' easy smell test consisting of Zack's (which I am more and more impressed with the more I use them), but flunks the long term buy and hold M* test (another WFMI case it seems).

PEG seems high for something trading under $10, no?

What's your thesis sir?

M* is whining about their lack of a moat, Zack's has it as a "1" BUY, which is their highest rating (they don't have an analyst currently covering it though, that's just their mechanical rating).

I will admit, my interest is piqued. I at least will add to my CAPS account - which I am also trying to get down to a "manageable" 50 picks at least, if not less. 100 is ridiculous and over the top imo. JAVA makes 101.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 4:03 pm

Bah, I keep forgetting to update CAPS. [EDIT: Heh, all star again. Maybe I should leave it alone.]

I picked it purely for a short term earnings play. That's not a recommendation, I just put it out there since I bought it. I haven't researched it a ton, this one is more of a hunch play like MSFT was.

P/E and PEG are higher but not out there. P/S is attractive. But this is a news pick, not a fundy pick.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 4:57 pm

And...JAVA ticked down AH. Dammit, but nothing out yet...

CCall in 1 hour.

Citi traded about a quarter billion shares today. Wow.

EDIT:

1Q rev +0.9%
1Q EPS 3c vs -2c
Not bad, not great. Blah.

And call at 4:30, not 5:00.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 6:41 pm

amazing that the worlds biggest bank has not enough money.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:38 am

Well, got out of JAVA early this morning. Beat on earnings but missed on revs. And it got the kiss of death this morning, an upgrade from Citi.

LLNW got crushed but still green for me so I'll hold on.

Taking today off watching PTSC run.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:27 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: I will admit, my interest is piqued. I at least will add to my CAPS account - which I am also trying to get down to a "manageable" 50 picks at least, if not less. 100 is ridiculous and over the top imo. JAVA makes 101.

If you still have JAVA, Caps borked the R/S. It's showing my start as $22 and current as $5.

Hold at least until they fix it.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:59 pm

I still have it. I noticed someone already posted about it in the CAPS BETA feedback board.

I am eyeing Nvidia again for a good entry, and I think this is as good as it might get for a while.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:24 pm

Sold 2/3 of my POT today. Riding 100% free shares now, and some cash on standby.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Wed Dec 19, 2007 12:39 pm

Thought I'd chime in with my year-end check of some of my stocks:

purchase date, purchase price, current price, gain(loss)

Apple (AAPL)
2/11/2005, 40.59, 182.65, 346.88%
5/22/2007, 113.34, 182.65, 60.87% (2nd purchase)

Amazon (AMZN)
1/07/2005,41.33,88.17,110.08%

Dow Diamonds TR Unit (DIA)
5/7/2003,85.72,132.79,51.52%

Google (GOOG)
12/13/2005, 416.55,677.60,61.26%

Microsoft (MSFT)
5/14/2002,21.47,34.78,59.82%

Starbucks (SBUX)
10/6/2005,25.86,20.11,-22.68%

I do have some clunkers. Funny enough, they were purchased this year:

Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM)
5/31/2007,43.84,34.21,-22.22%

Nuance Communications (NUAN)
10/23/2007,21.67,18.96,-13.02%

American Capital Strategies (ACAS)
5/25/2007,46.76,34.08,-28.07%

That last one was my foray into buying a stock with a high dividend yield. At the time of purchase the dividend was ~9%. With the current price its now 11.81%.

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:22 pm

I feel your pain.

I also bought AKAM this year.

My only purchase recently was SDTH (Chinese play). I bought it at $9.40 and it closed at $13.09 today. Other than that and some ETF,s I haven't bought much lately.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:21 pm

Alright ladies and gents, the market has seen a lot of red lately...what looks good to you? What have you been or planning on buying on sale?

Me, just sold my last position in ELAN (first bought in late 2001), for by far one of my best investments (and first) to date. I bid you adieu, Elan...you probably have a much brighter future than $25, but I can no longer trust the out of control and obviously insane FDA of today (they have a Alzheimer's drug in Phase III trials).

Money from that went into:

Y (Allegheny) (new)
More BA (Boeing)
More DISCA (Discovery Holding)
More SNDK (Sandisk)

Straddling, can't decide to buy or not:

More ISRG only because I own way too much already...makes up 18% of my portfolio currently, and that feels a little exposed to me, don't care how great the company is (but then again, that is because of the massive share price appreciation, not because I plunked down 18% in cash value at once of course, so that probably shouldn't matter)

NVDA Love these prices...love the company...but it is a bit cyclical, so maybe it's going down and I will be able to pick some up lower. Don't currently own any.

ASF (Administaff): I have an entry position in this which is down about 30% as of now...but I don't see anything that has changed that much about the company to justify that. It's either beaten up for no reason, or I bought too expensive...still trying to figure it out, but I think the company is sound.

Want to sell but can't stomach it/swallow my pride:

SCSS (Select Comfort). What a horrible piece of crap. Just a really bad bad investment that never felt right. At least I sold some before the major most recent hit, but I still have enough to make me sick everytime I look at the share price.

ENCY (Encysive Pharm) Ugh. I am done with small biotechs. Won't go into my FDA rant here, but I am done.

BTW, since this thread gets lost pretty easily, the best way to find it is to search on keyword "CONCLAVE" - appears at the top of the results list.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:40 pm

I'm still watching VE. I like that one. I've been watching BA for re-entry. I probably should have pulled the trigger at $80, that was were I got it on the last trip I think.

CEE (Russia/Eastern Europe CEF) was my last new buy, back in December. Half the day before ex-date, half after. Got the fat dividend for half the shares, got a bit of a discount (IMO) for the other. Also looking to gobble up more AOD/AGD (IRA/non-IRA) and AWP (all Alpine CEFs). All are right around 10% market yield, depending on the up to the minute PPS. Which might give you an indication of where I see things headed.

Otherwise, I'm trying to re-evaluate my bigger positions.

SPR is up 5% on slightly heavy volume today. Not sure what the story is, hoping it's those European factory deals. It's been up all day, not just after Ben and CFC and hasn't been sticking right with BA.

Not worried at all about UTX, PG, MSFT, or HAL. NYX has been looking good, finally. RWC and TUES are piles of crap. CEE is a year long addition, at least.

Quite a turn around today. Still red big time for the week though.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:42 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:BTW, since this thread gets lost pretty easily, the best way to find it is to search on keyword "CONCLAVE" - appears at the top of the results list.

I always use "OIC".

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:43 pm

Forgot one...looks VERY expensive, but CREE looks interesting, if only for a buyout candidate. Zack's almost drools everytime they mention it.

PS - Lawbeef: still holding POT? (snicker)

I saw it mentioned in some articles the other day...do you see much growth left at these levels?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:08 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:Forgot one...looks VERY expensive, but CREE looks interesting, if only for a buyout candidate. Zack's almost drools everytime they mention it.

PS - Lawbeef: still holding POT? (snicker) I saw it mentioned in some articles the other day...do you see much growth left at these levels?

I thought he sold it.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:32 pm

LawBeefaroni on Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:24 pm wrote:Sold 2/3 of my POT today. Riding 100% free shares now, and some cash on standby.

Sold that 2/3 at $132 and change. Still have the last 1/3. It was tempting to unload that in the mid $140s but I didn't.

Carpet_pissr wrote:PS - Lawbeef: still holding POT? (snicker) I saw it mentioned in some articles the other day...do you see much growth left at these levels?

If you listen to the Ag bulls, they'll tell you there is still plenty of room (MOS, MON, POT, AGU etc). Some guy was saying today that fuel and food are almost interchangable as commodities now. I think it was the MON guy. Rise in commodities prices, global expansion and even a possible US recession all favor POT.

My friend and I were talking about POT in late 2006. I thought it was way too high at what was then about $50 split adjusted (it split 3:1 about 7 months later at $220 pre-split or $71 at today's prices). Last week it hit $146. So I'm probably not the best person to call the top. I thought the same with AAPL when it was at $90.

I'm comfortable with the decision to take some profits but I'm also comfortable with my current position. Personally it would take quite a pullback for me to reload.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 16, 2008 4:12 pm

787 delivery now officially pushed back to 2009. Uncertainty lessened, delay priced in. I'm watching closely to get back into BA.