(Almost) Simple WW Game - Game Over

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:45 pm

If we have all of the "Not SheWolf" info in, we should proceed.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:46 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:Grund, my vote is still on you because I am waiting for you to eventually change your clearing announcement and then explain why you gave a false clearance of me in the first place.
What?
I do not think you recognized me.

me no understand, I stoopid.

So Scoop are you saying you are the she-wolf and you are wondering why Grund is lying? So grund then must be the he-wolf. Case closed.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:46 pm

Chaosraven wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:>>>> It's worth noting that Mr Bubbles and Grundbegriff both first made some post before revealing who they cleared. Mr Bubbles made the interesting move of making several playful posts after seeing both Theohall and Newcastle clear Remus West before clearing him also.
Because of stuff like this

I think you are agreeing with me that Mr Bubbles is making a strong He-Wolf candidate. I think ....

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:49 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:>>>> It's worth noting that Mr Bubbles and Grundbegriff both first made some post before revealing who they cleared. Mr Bubbles made the interesting move of making several playful posts after seeing both Theohall and Newcastle clear Remus West before clearing him also.

Let us talk this one out.

Lassr and Unagi both claim that Mr Bubbles is not the She-wolf. Hence - there is 0% chance that Mr Bubbles is the She-wolf.

So, now we want to ask: Is Mr Bubbles the He-wolf?

The He-wolf knows 7 names this morning that he could very easily pick as "the name he got".

Put yourself in a "He Wolf's Place"... You need to name someone. You know that player "X" is the She-wolf....
Player "Y" was the night's kill. And Player "Y" was just named by two other players.

Wouldn't you, as the He-Wolf - make the choice to pick - anyone other than Player X or Y - as "the name you got".

I would.

If Mr. Bubbles was the He-Wolf - don't you think Mr Bubbles would have made less trouble for himself to simply name "any other villager"...

The naming of "Remus West", in Mr Bubbles context - makes him seem unlikely to be the He-wolf.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:50 pm

Lassr wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:Grund, my vote is still on you because I am waiting for you to eventually change your clearing announcement and then explain why you gave a false clearance of me in the first place.
What?
I do not think you recognized me.
me no understand, I stoopid.

So Scoop are you saying you are the she-wolf and you are wondering why Grund is lying? So grund then must be the he-wolf. Case closed.

Clicking on the Easy button only give me a slightly larger Easy button.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:51 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:>>>> It's worth noting that Mr Bubbles and Grundbegriff both first made some post before revealing who they cleared. Mr Bubbles made the interesting move of making several playful posts after seeing both Theohall and Newcastle clear Remus West before clearing him also.
Because of stuff like this
I think you are agreeing with me that Mr Bubbles is making a strong He-Wolf candidate. I think ....

I'm saying the "Not She-Wolf" stuff should be sorted out first, *then* behavior of a He-Wolf candidate.

From the rest of your POV:

Most likely She-Wolves
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

Next Tier most likely.
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)

So from my POV:
Most likely She-Wolves
Cleared not at all: Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi
Next Tier most likely.
Cleared once: Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)

Which means I would be most interested in examining the above 5 players.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:51 pm

Here's the sequence and timing in which folks were cleared as non-She-wolfy:

Unagi clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 03:42 pm)
theohall clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:21 pm)
Newcastle clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:34 pm)
Mr Bubbles clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:47 pm)
Scoop clears Lassr (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:19 pm)
Lassr clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:30 pm)
Grundbegriff clears Scoop (2009 Apr 30, Thu 11:48 pm)
Chaosraven clears Newcastle (2009 May 01, Fri 09:55 am)
Semaj clears Lassr (2009 May 01, Fri 12:49 pm)

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:52 pm

{Carrying forward to new page....}

Now that all the info is in, it looks as if we have three pawn islands-- three paths to get to the clearing of Remus West:

Grundbegriff --- clears Scoop20906 of She-Wolfdom
Scoop20906 --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom
(Semaj --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom)
Lassr --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom
(Unagi --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom)
Mr Bubbles --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Chaosraven --- clears Newcastle of She-Wolfdom
Newcastle --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Theohall --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Here's the same info sorted by name received:

Scoop20906 --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom
Semaj --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom

Lassr --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom
Unagi --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom

Chaosraven --- clears Newcastle of She-Wolfdom

Mr Bubbles --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom
Newcastle --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom
Theohall --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Grundbegriff --- clears Scoop20906 of She-Wolfdom

Here's a frequency chart of vouchings against She-Wolfitude:

Cleared thrice: Remus West (by Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall) (also confirmed by death)
Cleared twice: Mr Bubbles (by Lassr, Unagi); Lassr (by Scoop0906, Semaj)
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

Calculating....[/quote]

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:55 pm

Uh. Didn't I already post all this stuff? And with linkys?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:56 pm

Cleared thrice: Remus West (by Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall) (also confirmed by death)
Cleared twice: Mr Bubbles (by Lassr, Unagi); Lassr (by Scoop0906, Semaj)
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)
-----------------------------------
Most likely She-Wolves
Cleared not at all: Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi
Next Tier most likely.
Cleared once: Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)

From my POV, hanging Grund proves Scoop as "not Shewolf" and removes one from the list of four.

From the rest of your POV, hanging me proves Newcastle as "not Shewolf" and removes one from the list of five.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri May 01, 2009 2:59 pm

Unagi wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:>>>> It's worth noting that Mr Bubbles and Grundbegriff both first made some post before revealing who they cleared. Mr Bubbles made the interesting move of making several playful posts after seeing both Theohall and Newcastle clear Remus West before clearing him also.
Let us talk this one out.

Lassr and Unagi both claim that Mr Bubbles is not the She-wolf. Hence - there is 0% chance that Mr Bubbles is the She-wolf.

So, now we want to ask: Is Mr Bubbles the He-wolf?

The He-wolf knows 7 names this morning that he could very easily pick as "the name he got".

Put yourself in a "He Wolf's Place"... You need to name someone. You know that player "X" is the She-wolf....
Player "Y" was the night's kill. And Player "Y" was just named by two other players.

Wouldn't you, as the He-Wolf - make the choice to pick - anyone other than Player X or Y - as "the name you got".

I would.

If Mr. Bubbles was the He-Wolf - don't you think Mr Bubbles would have made less trouble for himself to simply name "any other villager"...

The naming of "Remus West", in Mr Bubbles context - makes him seem unlikely to be the He-wolf.

+1

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:04 pm

Unagi wrote:The He-wolf knows 7 names this morning that he could very easily pick as "the name he got".

Put yourself in a "He Wolf's Place"... You need to name someone. You know that player "X" is the She-wolf....
Player "Y" was the night's kill. And Player "Y" was just named by two other players.

Wouldn't you, as the He-Wolf - make the choice to pick - anyone other than Player X or Y - as "the name you got".

I would.

If Mr. Bubbles was the He-Wolf - don't you think Mr Bubbles would have made less trouble for himself to simply name "any other villager"...

The naming of "Remus West", in Mr Bubbles context - makes him seem unlikely to be the He-wolf.

That's an interesting argument. But the flipside is that the He-Wolf wants to stay alive, and the way a Werewolf stays alive is by opportunistically riding any wave of suspicion that seems viable. If the He-Wolf names Geraldine, he makes unlikely and perhaps prevents the framing of Geraldine.

In that sense, picking the Deader is safer, since it leaves open the possibility of framing anyone toward whom suspicion turns.

That said, I think I agree with you. Picking the Deader looks suspicious, and the He-Wolf can always name someone he considers relatively immune to framing anyhow. That's a small price to pay to avoid the fairly conspicuous tell of piling on the dead guy.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:04 pm

She-Wolf -
* If Night Kill is the He-Wolf, there is no death and they can PM freely until end of game.

Currently "Blind"
(Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi, Scoop20906)
(Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi, Scoop20906, Chaosraven, Newcastle)
--------------------------------------
He-Wolf -
* Is given the name of She-Wolf just before Sunrise on Monday Morning (his nose knows)

Knows the above
---------------------------------------
Villagers - Residents of a doomed little Village.
(8) -
#1 -Remus West
#2-#7 ??

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:04 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:

Clicking on the Easy button only give me a slightly larger Easy button.

It was increasy!

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:06 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Cleared thrice: Remus West (by Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall) (also confirmed by death)
Cleared twice: Mr Bubbles (by Lassr, Unagi); Lassr (by Scoop0906, Semaj)
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)
-----------------------------------
Most likely She-Wolves
Cleared not at all: Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi
Next Tier most likely.
Cleared once: Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)

From my POV, hanging Grund proves Scoop as "not Shewolf" and removes one from the list of four.

From the rest of your POV, hanging me proves Newcastle as "not Shewolf" and removes one from the list of five.

Lynching Grundbegriff (and is revealed as villager) clears Scoop20906 (not she-wolf) which then clears Lassr (not she wolf).

Lynching Chaosraven (and is revealed as villager) clears Newcastle (no she-wolf) which then clears Remus West (who is dead).

If we had to choose, Grundbegriff is the better candidate between these two.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:06 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:

Clicking on the Easy button only give me a slightly larger Easy button.
It was increasy!

AH! LOL!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:07 pm

Chaosraven wrote:So from my POV:
Most likely She-Wolves
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Semaj, theohall, Unagi
Next Tier most likely.
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven)

Which means I would be most interested in examining the above 5 players.

Relativized.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:08 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:The He-wolf knows 7 names this morning that he could very easily pick as "the name he got".

Put yourself in a "He Wolf's Place"... You need to name someone. You know that player "X" is the She-wolf....
Player "Y" was the night's kill. And Player "Y" was just named by two other players.

Wouldn't you, as the He-Wolf - make the choice to pick - anyone other than Player X or Y - as "the name you got".

I would.

If Mr. Bubbles was the He-Wolf - don't you think Mr Bubbles would have made less trouble for himself to simply name "any other villager"...

The naming of "Remus West", in Mr Bubbles context - makes him seem unlikely to be the He-wolf.
That's an interesting argument. But the flipside is that the He-Wolf wants to stay alive, and the way a Werewolf stays alive is by opportunistically riding any wave of suspicion that seems viable. If the He-Wolf names Geraldine, he makes unlikely and perhaps prevents the framing of Geraldine.

In that sense, picking the Deader is safer, since it leaves open the possibility of framing anyone toward whom suspicion turns.

That said, I think I agree with you. Picking the Deader looks suspicious, and the He-Wolf can always name someone he considers relatively immune to framing anyhow. That's a small price to pay to avoid the fairly conspicuous tell of piling on the dead guy.

He could join on any of the Multiples, even if the Shewolf was on it as well.
After "Bubba" states that "Mary" isn't the Shewolf, the Hewolf knows already whether Bubba is the Shewolf.
So does the Hewolf stay away from the chosen Name thrown out by the Shewolf?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:10 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:So from my POV:
Most likely She-Wolves
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Semaj, theohall, Unagi
Next Tier most likely.
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven)

Which means I would be most interested in examining the above 5 players.
Relativized.

Exactly.

As an added bonus, you and I are now relatively safe from being eaten by that logic, as it shrinks the pool as well.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:11 pm

Matter of fact, she has to eat either Lassr or Bubbles tonight.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:11 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Here's the sequence and timing in which folks were cleared as non-She-wolfy:

Unagi clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 03:42 pm)
theohall clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:21 pm)
Newcastle clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:34 pm)
Mr Bubbles clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:47 pm)
Scoop clears Lassr (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:19 pm)
Lassr clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:30 pm)
Grundbegriff clears Scoop (2009 Apr 30, Thu 11:48 pm)
Chaosraven clears Newcastle (2009 May 01, Fri 09:55 am)
Semaj clears Lassr (2009 May 01, Fri 12:49 pm)

Suppose we grant two premises:
(a) Anyone confirmed twice is not the She-Wolf.
(b) Anyone offering a name that has already been offered might be piggybacking

Based on those criteria, neither Bubbles nor Lassr is the She-Wolf, and
Newcastle might be piggybacking, and
Semaj might be piggybacking.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:12 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Uh. Didn't I already post all this stuff? And with linkys?

Yes, but when I do it, it's official.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:15 pm

Unagi wrote:
Unagi wrote:...
+1

You can't augment your own favorability!

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:15 pm

Ok, Unagi, I get your point (its a good one) but what are the odds that random.org gave THREE people the name of the first person killed by the she-wolf? Highly coincedental. I am willing to bet one of the three is a wolf.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:15 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Matter of fact, she has to eat either Lassr or Bubbles tonight.

Oooo, that sounds exciting...oh wait you mean....nevermind.

So, do we want to focus some attention on the ones that received no clearance for now?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:16 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:Uh. Didn't I already post all this stuff? And with linkys?
Yes, but when I do it, it's official.

ARRGGH! I can never argue with your logic.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:18 pm

I think Chaosraven made a solid case. We need to lynch the person that reveals the most information tomorrow. Killing Grundbegriff will clear me and lassr of being the she-wolf.

Unless we can identify another lynch that reveals more info I'm going with that.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:19 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Here's the sequence and timing in which folks were cleared as non-She-wolfy:

Unagi clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 03:42 pm)
theohall clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:21 pm)
Newcastle clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:34 pm)
Mr Bubbles clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:47 pm)
Scoop clears Lassr (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:19 pm)
Lassr clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:30 pm)
Grundbegriff clears Scoop (2009 Apr 30, Thu 11:48 pm)
Chaosraven clears Newcastle (2009 May 01, Fri 09:55 am)
Semaj clears Lassr (2009 May 01, Fri 12:49 pm)

Suppose we grant two premises:
(a) Anyone confirmed twice is not the She-Wolf.
(b) Anyone offering a name that has already been offered might be piggybacking

Based on those criteria, neither Bubbles nor Lassr is the She-Wolf, and
Newcastle might be piggybacking, and
Semaj might be piggybacking.

Couldn't Lassr be seen as piggybacking too? (and Mr B, I suppose - but I have him on a back-burner)

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:20 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: Killing Grundbegriff will clear me and lassr of being the she-wolf.

.

I'm already clear.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:20 pm

SCENARIOS:

#1 - Shewolf does not find Hewolf

Sunday Night
Remus (Villager)

Monday
-1 (leaves 8)

Monday Night
(-1) Villager (leaves 7)

Tuesday
-1 (leaves 6)

Tuesday Night
(-1) Villager (leaves 5)

Wednesday
-1 (leaves 4) **
Game Loss if Neither wolf Lynched

========================

#2 - Shewolf finds Hewolf

Sunday Night
Remus (Villager)

Monday
-1 (leaves 8)

Monday Night
(-0) Hewolf (leaves 8)

Tuesday
-1 (leaves 7)

Tuesday Night
(-1) Villager (leaves 6)

Wednesday
-1 (leaves 5)

Wednesday Night
(-1) Villager (leaves 4) **
Game Loss if Neither wolf Lynched

Either way, we have 3 Strikes.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:21 pm

Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Here's the sequence and timing in which folks were cleared as non-She-wolfy:

Unagi clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 03:42 pm)
theohall clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:21 pm)
Newcastle clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:34 pm)
Mr Bubbles clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:47 pm)
Scoop clears Lassr (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:19 pm)
Lassr clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:30 pm)
Grundbegriff clears Scoop (2009 Apr 30, Thu 11:48 pm)
Chaosraven clears Newcastle (2009 May 01, Fri 09:55 am)
Semaj clears Lassr (2009 May 01, Fri 12:49 pm)

Suppose we grant two premises:
(a) Anyone confirmed twice is not the She-Wolf.
(b) Anyone offering a name that has already been offered might be piggybacking

Based on those criteria, neither Bubbles nor Lassr is the She-Wolf, and
Newcastle might be piggybacking, and
Semaj might be piggybacking.
Couldn't Lassr be seen as piggybacking too?

Yes, I could be piggybacking as the he-wolf only.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:23 pm

Lassr wrote:
Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Here's the sequence and timing in which folks were cleared as non-She-wolfy:

Unagi clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 03:42 pm)
theohall clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:21 pm)
Newcastle clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:34 pm)
Mr Bubbles clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:47 pm)
Scoop clears Lassr (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:19 pm)
Lassr clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:30 pm)
Grundbegriff clears Scoop (2009 Apr 30, Thu 11:48 pm)
Chaosraven clears Newcastle (2009 May 01, Fri 09:55 am)
Semaj clears Lassr (2009 May 01, Fri 12:49 pm)

Suppose we grant two premises:
(a) Anyone confirmed twice is not the She-Wolf.
(b) Anyone offering a name that has already been offered might be piggybacking

Based on those criteria, neither Bubbles nor Lassr is the She-Wolf, and
Newcastle might be piggybacking, and
Semaj might be piggybacking.
Couldn't Lassr be seen as piggybacking too?
Yes, I could be piggybacking as the he-wolf only.

I suppose - in some sense, I should give you the same nod I am sorta giving Mr Bubbles too.

As, yes - you are twice cleared of She-wolf, and - as a He-wolf, you would have no need to piggyback (you could have safely named anyone - you didn't need to piggyback on me).

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:23 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Matter of fact, she has to eat either Lassr or Bubbles tonight.

It's tactically sound to eliminate trusteds/knowns, so this is correct. Of course, either could still be the He-Wolf, but if she kills one of them, we'll know he wasn't that one!

Come to think of it, if nobody dies tonight, we'll know he is one of these two.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:29 pm

Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Here's the sequence and timing in which folks were cleared as non-She-wolfy:

Unagi clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 03:42 pm)
theohall clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:21 pm)
Newcastle clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:34 pm)
Mr Bubbles clears Remus Dead (2009 Apr 30, Thu 04:47 pm)
Scoop clears Lassr (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:19 pm)
Lassr clears Bubbles (2009 Apr 30, Thu 05:30 pm)
Grundbegriff clears Scoop (2009 Apr 30, Thu 11:48 pm)
Chaosraven clears Newcastle (2009 May 01, Fri 09:55 am)
Semaj clears Lassr (2009 May 01, Fri 12:49 pm)

Suppose we grant two premises:
(a) Anyone confirmed twice is not the She-Wolf.
(b) Anyone offering a name that has already been offered might be piggybacking

Based on those criteria, neither Bubbles nor Lassr is the She-Wolf, and
Newcastle might be piggybacking, and
Semaj might be piggybacking.
Couldn't Lassr be seen as piggybacking too? (and Mr B, I suppose - but I have him on a back-burner)

Yes, but they're cleared as non-She-Wolf (by premise (a)).

Would the He-Wolf piggyback? The alternative is to name the She-Wolf or to name someone else not previously named.
Would the She-Wolf piggyback? The alternative is to name someone not previously named.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:32 pm

Lassr wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:Matter of fact, she has to eat either Lassr or Bubbles tonight.
Oooo, that sounds exciting...oh wait you mean....nevermind.

So, do we want to focus some attention on the ones that received no clearance for now?

I would.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:32 pm

grundbegriff

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:33 pm

That didn't come out right.

withdrawal grundbegriff

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:35 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:Matter of fact, she has to eat either Lassr or Bubbles tonight.
It's tactically sound to eliminate trusteds/knowns, so this is correct. Of course, either could still be the He-Wolf, but if she kills one of them, we'll know he wasn't that one!

Come to think of it, if nobody dies tonight, we'll know he is one of these two.

The odds would certainly favor it, logically.

To keep from winnowing out her own hiding place she should eliminate "known" players. In this game, "Not Shewolf" is as good as it gets until proven in death.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:36 pm

Unagi wrote:as a He-wolf, you would have no need to piggyback (you could have safely named anyone - you didn't need to piggyback on me).

I think we need to reason very carefully about the He-Wolf.

The He-Wolf can be anyone. Each of us who is not the He-Wolf knows his own innocence; that is the extent of our reliable knowledge about the He-Wolf.

All else equal, the Wolves want to leave as many people vulnerable as possible. This is why a He-Wolf might piggyback; from a lupine perspective, concentrating trust on a single individual (who can then be killed) is better than spreading trust around.

That said, there's no guarantee that the He-Wolf would optimize in this way. Here are reasons he might not:
(a) wants to signal the She-Wolf by naming her
(b) wants to avoid looking like he's piggybacking
(c) didn't think it through
(d) ?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri May 01, 2009 3:38 pm

We have several ways to attack this problem and several criteria that can be used to make a decision. I still think the three "recognitions" of a dead Remus West need to be follow up. Then Theohall made his reveal he had no idea that Newcastle and Mr Bubbles would follow. Is it possible that Theohall is the she-wolf, killed Remus West and made tactically sound move of naming a dead player. For all Theohall knew, he would be the only one recognizing Remus West.

Add to that that no one has recognized Theohall and we have a strong Day One Candidate.