Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Daehawk]

I wonder if there aren't a lot of people who get infected and either dont notice it at all or just have a small cough or some sneezing and go on about their life spreading it.

[Smoove_B]

For the record, it was Representatives Andy Biggs (AZ) and Ken Buck (CO) that voted against emergency funding for Coronavirus. The vote passed 415-2.

[Holman]

I wonder if there aren't a lot of people who get infected and either dont notice it at all or just have a small cough or some sneezing and go on about their life spreading it.

Yeah, that's the whole problem.

Something like Ebola actually doesn't spread all that widely because it's obvious when you have it. This one is a ticking time bomb that let's you carry it around and share the wealth for a while.

I just saw some stats out of South Korea. They've had 35 deaths, but most are people over 70, with none under 30. If nothing else, this suggests that the virus isn't that great at attacking infants and small children.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/timothypmurphy/stat ... 6310070272

[Unagi]

well, every who has kids in school. start making plans now for what to do when the schools are closed. Because they are going to close, its just a matter of time. Prep your house for two weeks of not being able to buy groceries.

This will be remembered by (my) children as the world most awesome virus EVER!

[Daehawk]

The local news has a segment called Restaurant Report Card. It shows the scores of places to eat and why they scored that. Anything under 70 is a failing. Lots of places have 90 and above with many 100s. But there are some really nasty ass places around here. And the biggest negative mark all these places seem to share is lack of hand washing. Even the scores in the 90s will have 'lack of hand washing' as the reason they didn't score better.

[Paingod]

Prep your house for two weeks of not being able to buy groceries.

Remember to think like a prepper, too. Canned goods, dry goods. Light on frozen and perishables.

We typically keep several pounds of dried grains we use for regular cooking (bought in bulk, cheaper) and dozens of different cans of things. No great hardship if we can't leave the house for a week, but after two weeks we'll get tired of barley.

[malchior]

Anger over continuing lack of capacity to test in WA

"We know there is huge demand out there for testing, we know there are a lot of people in our state who are sick and they want to know if they have Covid-19," Washington State Health Officer Kathy Lofy told a news conference. "I want to tell you we are doing everything possible to expand testing capacity here in our state."

Nurse practitioner Paula Ruedebusch asked patients not to take out frustrations on front-line medical staff.

"We have had patients presenting here, angry that they cannot be tested for COVID-19, yelling, cussing, throwing their dirty mask at us and even spitting their secretions on the floor and walls on their way out," Ruedebusch, who works at an urgent care clinic in the Seattle suburb of Monroe, wrote on Facebook.

Testing was delayed after a first round of kits sent by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) failed and it took weeks for replacements to arrive in states.

The CDC initially set narrow criteria on who could be tested but widened them in the last day to anyone who has symptoms of Covid-19, Lofy said.

Washington still faces capacity issues, with the state public health laboratory only able to test around 100 people a day, Lofy said. The state hopes to ramp up testing through commercial labs.

[Skinypupy]

I work for a major consultant firm and we just got guidance that generally discourages all travel (even domestic). There are prohibitions against any work travel to certain countries. Any other international travel has to be approved. Wow.

I have two consultants currently working with a US federal agency in Pakistan. They are headed to Afghanistan on Saturday to work there for three weeks. The medical directors in both locations downplayed any concerns and there are no restrictions. They both sounded shocked when we expressed concerns about coming, which was surprising.

Interestingly, that same agency cancelled another program we were scheduled to deliver in Cairo next week. Only "mission critical" personnel are being allowed onsite right now. I have a huge project in Kenya next month...really hoping that one doesn't go sideways too.

My company is discouraging, but not actively limiting, domestic travel (I'm writing this from a DC hotel room ). Any international engagements are decided on a case-by-case basis.

The agency in Afghanistan did an about-face this morning and cancelled everything due to coronavirus concerns. Kenya has done the same. They’re both basically locking down at this point.

In the last two days, I’ve lost 2/3 of my business this quarter to coronavirus. I used to be a salesman like you, then I took a coronavirus to the knee.

[malchior]

My main client - an O&G supermajor is incrementally locking down too but hasn't gone full turtle yet. Luckily I tend to work remote when I'm not traveling so I'm bunkered up. That's good. I still engage in risky behavior like referee sports but whatever. Slapping hands with a bunch of sweaty skaters last night was followed up by an immediate washing of my hands.

[Skinypupy]

I’ll be glad to get home from this trip. I’ll admit that a full day of Metro trains and airports has me more on edge than it should.

[Scraper]

Apart from the potential loss of life. (I put that it in case it wasn't obvious). My biggest worry is that we really haven't begun to see the effects this will have on the economy. Especially once states start declaring states of emergency, locking things down and shutting down any big events. Major league sports events, concerts, the cost to travel to those things, heck even children's sporting events and tournaments. The trickle down effect will be massive to hotels, restaurants, vendors, gas stations, etc. And it just starts there. All of the people that depend on those incomes will stop buying. It's the real trickle down effect.

From a selfish standpoint my son is supposed to have two different soccer tournaments in April that we had to book hotels for. I made sure to book with the option to cancel. If they have to cancel those events I don't want to be out the several hundred we would have spent on hotels.

[Octavious]

My daughter has a DC school trip next month that she's been waiting for all year. I don't want to say anything, but I think there's a solid chance they cancel it.

[El Guapo]

Anger over continuing lack of capacity to test in WA

"We know there is huge demand out there for testing, we know there are a lot of people in our state who are sick and they want to know if they have Covid-19," Washington State Health Officer Kathy Lofy told a news conference. "I want to tell you we are doing everything possible to expand testing capacity here in our state."

Nurse practitioner Paula Ruedebusch asked patients not to take out frustrations on front-line medical staff.

"We have had patients presenting here, angry that they cannot be tested for COVID-19, yelling, cussing, throwing their dirty mask at us and even spitting their secretions on the floor and walls on their way out," Ruedebusch, who works at an urgent care clinic in the Seattle suburb of Monroe, wrote on Facebook.

Testing was delayed after a first round of kits sent by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) failed and it took weeks for replacements to arrive in states.

The CDC initially set narrow criteria on who could be tested but widened them in the last day to anyone who has symptoms of Covid-19, Lofy said.

Washington still faces capacity issues, with the state public health laboratory only able to test around 100 people a day, Lofy said. The state hopes to ramp up testing through commercial labs.

Quick question - is there a difference between "spitting your secretions" and just "spitting"?

I'm supposed to go to Seattle in about a month for two days of witness interviews. Wonder whether that'll get nixed before then.

[El Guapo]

My daughter has a DC school trip next month that she's been waiting for all year. I don't want to say anything, but I think there's a solid chance they cancel it.

I don't totally understand the logic of stuff like that. Unless and until we're at the stage of basically not going out in public unless there's an emergency, what's the difference between being out in DC vs. being out in NY?

[malchior]

My daughter has a DC school trip next month that she's been waiting for all year. I don't want to say anything, but I think there's a solid chance they cancel it.

I don't totally understand the logic of stuff like that. Unless and until we're at the stage of basically not going out in public unless there's an emergency, what's the difference between being out in DC vs. being out in NY?

I'm seeing this a lot in many communities. Akin to 'I saw this big convention cancel therefore my small event will overreact and do so'. For example, I'm seeing rumbles of some sporting tournaments cancelling through April. I am skeptical because I think it's likely there "won't be an outbreak" because we won't know its happening.

[Defiant]

Light on frozen

Is there any reason to expect electricity (and for that matter water) outages? Or is just that that's ordinary emergency preparedness?

[El Guapo]

My daughter has a DC school trip next month that she's been waiting for all year. I don't want to say anything, but I think there's a solid chance they cancel it.

I don't totally understand the logic of stuff like that. Unless and until we're at the stage of basically not going out in public unless there's an emergency, what's the difference between being out in DC vs. being out in NY?

I'm seeing this a lot in many communities. Akin to 'I saw this big convention cancel therefore my small event will overreact and do so'. For example, I'm seeing rumbles of some sporting tournaments cancelling through April. I am skeptical because I think it's likely there "won't be an outbreak" because we won't know its happening.

This is also where an administration with credibility could make a big difference. BUT since Trump lacks credibility in general, and has obviously attempted to minimize coronavirus issues in particular, his administration probably couldn't help here (and any efforts by him to do so might be counter-productive).

[Paingod]

Light on frozen

Is there any reason to expect electricity (and for that matter water) outages? Or is just that that's ordinary emergency preparedness?

No reason at all to expect outages. I just don't want to pile up things that can't last a long time on their own. Personal preferences. My family doesn't eat much that's frozen.

[El Guapo]

Prep your house for two weeks of not being able to buy groceries.

Remember to think like a prepper, too. Canned goods, dry goods. Light on frozen and perishables.

We typically keep several pounds of dried grains we use for regular cooking (bought in bulk, cheaper) and dozens of different cans of things. No great hardship if we can't leave the house for a week, but after two weeks we'll get tired of barley.

Where does two weeks come from? Is the idea that if there's a severe localized outbreak, two weeks would be enough for that outbreak to play itself out?

[ImLawBoy]

Well along with continuing to make us work on Christmas and Thanksgiving, the children's hospital I work for us continuing to make us take care of patients.

We did get some extra wipes to clean stuff though so that's...exciting?

I'll probably get this thing and it probably won't make me very sick. Probably.
What you gonna do?

This is a super fun time to have a kid currently in the midst of an extended stay in the hospital (on day 9, expected to go into next week). I visit daily, but I'm gearing up for my full time shift over the weekend. On the plus side, he's in isolation so everyone gowns up when they come in - maybe that will protect us?

[ImLawBoy]

well, every who has kids in school. start making plans now for what to do when the schools are closed. Because they are going to close, its just a matter of time. Prep your house for two weeks of not being able to buy groceries. its not doomsday, power and water won't fail, but you may need to self quarantine when you get sick.


Japan is NOT a third world country with poor hygiene, and they closed all schools nationwide this week

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... mA4eahKhhE

As this continues to spread, everybody who can work from home, is going to have to work from home. Schools and offices will close, major events will close.

If it gets that far (and it's possible, although I don't think it's a foregone conclusion), I'm turning the one hour per day limit off of the twins' tablets.

[Paingod]

Where does two weeks come from? Is the idea that if there's a severe localized outbreak, two weeks would be enough for that outbreak to play itself out?

No idea where they got two weeks. I was just responding to Jaymon's post.

Personally, two weeks sounds short for hiding from the bug. From the moment you realize the virus is in your area, it'll probably take 2-4 weeks to peak and 4-6 weeks to start to trail off. It sounds like it takes 2 weeks for the alarm bells to actually start ringing. All conjecture, though. I don't think there's any sitting this one out. Even a nut that bunkers down and eats MRE's for 4 years is probably going to emerge and get infected by the 6th generation of the bug as it circles the globe again. More and more this is sounding like a permanent part of our lives.

Two weeks sounds like a government quarantine duration, though. Tell people to stay home, stay inside, avoid shopping for two weeks.

[El Guapo]

Where does two weeks come from? Is the idea that if there's a severe localized outbreak, two weeks would be enough for that outbreak to play itself out?

No idea where they got two weeks. I was just responding to Jaymon's post.

Personally, two weeks sounds short for hiding from the bug. From the moment you realize the virus is in your area, it'll probably take 2-4 weeks to peak and 4-6 weeks to start to trail off. It sounds like it takes 2 weeks for the alarm bells to actually start ringing. All conjecture, though. I don't think there's any sitting this one out. Even a nut that bunkers down and eats MRE's for 4 years is probably going to emerge and get infected by the 6th generation of the bug as it circles the globe again. More and more this is sounding like a permanent part of our lives.

Two weeks sounds like a government quarantine duration, though. Tell people to stay home, stay inside, avoid shopping for two weeks.

Yeah, I'm just leaning towards putting together a "stay in place" stockpile. Prompted by the coronavirus, although I'm skeptical that I'll wind up using it for this - I basically figure that it's worth having longterm even if I wind up not using it for this.

But then that just begs the question of how much stuff to get.

[Defiant]

I would think the two weeks come from the quarantine time length. But yeah, I think we'll be social distancing ourselves (but not completely isolating) for longer than that.

[Octavious]

My daughter has a DC school trip next month that she's been waiting for all year. I don't want to say anything, but I think there's a solid chance they cancel it.

I don't totally understand the logic of stuff like that. Unless and until we're at the stage of basically not going out in public unless there's an emergency, what's the difference between being out in DC vs. being out in NY?

I'm seeing this a lot in many communities. Akin to 'I saw this big convention cancel therefore my small event will overreact and do so'. For example, I'm seeing rumbles of some sporting tournaments cancelling through April. I am skeptical because I think it's likely there "won't be an outbreak" because we won't know its happening.

Her school is famous for overreacting to everything so I'm just making the assumption. I hope I'm wrong as she will be super upset. It's the big 8th grade trip that she's been looking forward to for years.

[LordMortis]

Isn't two week the quarantine time. Two weeks is how long you are supposed to isolate yourself if you think you are contagious. I would think you'd want two weeks of food in case you are asked to lock yourself away.

Also while I am not a prepper, I do buy goods in much greater than two week supplies, which is why I am woefully under fresh produced in my diet. The thing to remember is stuff goes bad. If you buy food that may sit on your shelf six months, make sure you check expiry dates, know what they mean, and then rotate your foodstuffs. Otherwise you get an annual purge where you are throwing food (which is also throwing away money).

[Defiant]

Something else to consider is if you show symptoms of the disease, in which case, IIUC, it can last two or three weeks (unless it's really bad, in which case you're probably going to be hospitalized) during which you will continue to stay quarantined. (IIUC, there's also an issue of whether you can continue to be courageous for some period after your symptoms subside).

[Smoove_B]

Exhibit A as to why we're collectively in trouble:

The Trump administration won’t be able to meet its promised timeline of having a million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators said after a briefing Thursday from health officials.

“There won’t be a million people to get a test by the end of the week,” Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida said. “It’s way smaller than that. And still, at this point, it’s still through public health departments.”

Scott and other lawmakers said the government is “in the process” of sending test kits out and people still need to be trained on how to use them. The entire process could take days or weeks, they said.

We are so far behind at this point it's quite troubling. More and more people are going to flood local ERs and their PCP's office. Some of them are going to have it and they're likely going to spread it while trying to be identified and receive care. Wish I had better news to report, but this is a huge red flag.

[Isgrimnur]

[geezer]

Both the wife and I make 100% of our income from large public events. We're so boned.

[Blackhawk]

"Two weeks" is a general disaster guideline, not a pandemic-specific guideline, along with three days of water, plus a means of cooking, light, communications, etc.

Part of it is the idea that it will be supplemented as well. If we get it and self-quarantine, we can have some basic supplies delivered by family (or even Amazon) to extend it. Part of it is to be able to deal with external disruptions, like rushes on stores, supply line problems (most store have enough to supply their community for less than a week if they can't resupply), stores shutting down, shorter outages as maintenance crews are reduced. It also gives a window of time in which you'll be able to subsist while outside assistance is organized and put into place. Most of it won't happen, but you don't prepare for best case scenarios, you prepare for worst.

Why two weeks, specifically? They probably looked at worst case scenarios, doubled it, and then considered what kind of resources (money, space) most people would actually be willing to invest.

[LordMortis]

Wait, the president has it under control, right? This is all a smear from the left and fake news to tank the economy for Democrats, right? So shouldn't his lapdog show no fear?

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/florida ... d=69396272

Rep. Matt Gaetz, a close ally of President Donald Trump who is serving in his second term, first tweeted a picture showing him wear a gas mask as he reviewed the bill in his office.

"Essentially the floor of the Congress is a Petri dish. We all fly into these dirty airports, we touch and selfie everyone we meet, and then we congregate together," Gaetz said.

[Isgrimnur]

He's new and from Floribama.

[LawBeefaroni]

I've got 2 weeks but kids will probably go feral after the fruit and candy is gone on day 6.

[Daehawk]

Supposedly kids cook fast and are tender. So win?

[ImLawBoy]

My kids are skinny and probably stringy. Pass. Plus my wife is vegetarian.

[Enough]

Both the wife and I make 100% of our income from large public events. We're so boned.

Oh my goodness, that's yikes!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[malchior]

Exhibit A as to why we're collectively in trouble:

The Trump administration won’t be able to meet its promised timeline of having a million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators said after a briefing Thursday from health officials.

“There won’t be a million people to get a test by the end of the week,” Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida said. “It’s way smaller than that. And still, at this point, it’s still through public health departments.”

Scott and other lawmakers said the government is “in the process” of sending test kits out and people still need to be trained on how to use them. The entire process could take days or weeks, they said.

We are so far behind at this point it's quite troubling. More and more people are going to flood local ERs and their PCP's office. Some of them are going to have it and they're likely going to spread it while trying to be identified and receive care. Wish I had better news to report, but this is a huge red flag.

I am skeptical because I think it's likely there "won't be an outbreak" because we won't know its happening.

The above is what I was unfortunately referencing here. Prepare to be *MASSIVELY GASLIT* on this topic. I've already heard it from friends who are talking about how out of proportion this whole thing is. "People die from the flu all the time". "It doesn't seem to be as bad as people think it was going to be."

[Scraper]

Exhibit A as to why we're collectively in trouble:

The Trump administration won’t be able to meet its promised timeline of having a million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators said after a briefing Thursday from health officials.

“There won’t be a million people to get a test by the end of the week,” Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida said. “It’s way smaller than that. And still, at this point, it’s still through public health departments.”

Scott and other lawmakers said the government is “in the process” of sending test kits out and people still need to be trained on how to use them. The entire process could take days or weeks, they said.

We are so far behind at this point it's quite troubling. More and more people are going to flood local ERs and their PCP's office. Some of them are going to have it and they're likely going to spread it while trying to be identified and receive care. Wish I had better news to report, but this is a huge red flag.

I am skeptical because I think it's likely there "won't be an outbreak" because we won't know its happening.

The above is what I was unfortunately referencing here. Prepare to be *MASSIVELY GASLIT* on this topic. I've already heard it from friends who are talking about how out of proportion this whole thing is. "People die from the flu all the time". "It doesn't seem to be as bad as people think it was going to be."

This one is pretty easy to debunk. The average seasonal Flu death rate is .1%, so far in the US the Covid 19 death rate is about 10%. Even if you go with the overall world average of about 3% that's still not even remotely comparable to the flu.