Octopus Overlords

I refuse to have hope. Hope failed me in 2016.

Biden announced that he raised $80 million dollars last month, and half of those giving were new donors. Average online donation was $30.

Also of note is Trump’s favorite poll, Republican leaning Rasmussen, just came out, with Biden +12, 48 to 36. Trump won’t be tweeting this poll.

That said, the big question is the economy and how it will impact voters. Retail sales are way up, and jobs seem to be coming back. How much credit will Trump get after cratering the economy? And if the protests calm down, how will that impact Trump? Trump is considered a maste of chaos - that he creates and controls - but he could not control these three - virus, economy, and protests. If they subside or stabilize, how much does he benefit? Are his dipping poll numbers temporary or more permanent. That is the big unknown:

Retail sales are up because they crashed to record lows in the last few months when everything was closed; it could only increase as things opened up. But as a tweet I saw earlier said, a drop in retail sales of 50% and then a subsequent gain in retail sales of 50%, still means retail sales are down 25% from the start. Of course, Trump will try to spin it to mean things are great, but it's going to take awhile to get back to where we were before the shutdowns.

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:07 am Retail sales are up because they crashed to record lows in the last few months when everything was closed; it could only increase as things opened up. But as a tweet I saw earlier said, a drop in retail sales of 50% and then a subsequent gain in retail sales of 50%, still means retail sales are down 25% from the start. Of course, Trump will try to spin it to mean things are great, but it's going to take awhile to get back to where we were before the shutdowns.

This is similar to the job numbers situation. Jobs down massively, BLS makes a decision to count furloughed people as employed even though they are getting unemployment, boom, employment looks great...it is springing back already. Forget that they are furloughed instead of straight unemployed because of PPP, plus we have no idea how many will transition back into the workforce. Everything looks great! Everything is completely politicized to the point that the entire population is being gas lit by some faction.

Grifman wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:39 pm These are the type of people that are going to cost Trump the election:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics ... index.html

I want to say to all Republicans out there: It's OKAY to reject the morally repugnant monster in office right now. You don't need to specifically vote for Biden, but you don't HAVE TO vote for Trump. Write in Abraham Lincoln if you need to.

I think America should be a forced three-party minimum nation with ranked choice voting across the board. You'd probably see a shitload more consistency in the sanity in our leadership and a lot of people feeling more comfortable voting for the middle-ground people when they don't fall into the extremes on either side.

It seems pretty clear that having two sides waging constant war on each other for decades has devolved into something horrible.

Unfortunately, I think the 'two sides' are the ones that need to give up their power in order for the 3 choice change you would like to see happen, and they are not likely to give up their exclusive 'two seats' in the front of the car to make room for a third.

But I agree with you.

But I don't see how it will happen. We'd need for one of the two parties to Run On That - and then gain control of the 2 houses / executive - AND THEN have them actually invoke this thing they ran on....

Biden leads Trump, 50% to 36% in Sienna/NYT poll:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/us/p ... llege.html

Biden takes strong leads in EVERY battleground state:

MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upsh ... ounds.html

Furthermore, 55% across battlegrounds say there's "almost no chance" they'll support Trump.

I read today that Trump is running commercials in Texas, of all places. You know he is in trouble if he has to spend money in Texas.

Grifman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:35 pm I read today that Trump is running commercials in Texas, of all places. You know he is in trouble if he has to spend money in Texas.

What I love is that the Trump campaign is running ads in the metro D.C. area, with the only plausible justification being that they want Trump to see the ads and feel like they're doing something.

Grifman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:37 am Biden takes strong leads in EVERY battleground state:

MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upsh ... ounds.html

Furthermore, 55% across battlegrounds say there's "almost no chance" they'll support Trump.

But will all those people get their asses to the polls and vote Blue? Will they be allowed to?

Grifman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:35 pm I read today that Trump is running commercials in Texas, of all places. You know he is in trouble if he has to spend money in Texas.

There has been a pretty big migration from CA to TX (driven largely by some bigger corporations moving HQs) that is shifting things politically. I can't imagine TX going blue in 2020, but I guess it's ok to dream.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:52 pm

Grifman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:35 pm I read today that Trump is running commercials in Texas, of all places. You know he is in trouble if he has to spend money in Texas.

There has been a pretty big migration from CA to TX (driven largely by some bigger corporations moving HQs) that is shifting things politically. I can't imagine TX going blue in 2020, but I guess it's ok to dream.

TX is ultimately irrelevant to Trump's reelection either way, because if Trump is losing Texas then he's almost certainly losing enough states elsewhere to cost him the election regardless. So it's kind of a waste of money even if TX could be plausibly competitive.

But if Trump does lose Texas, that will help build the story of the Trump administration as a cautionary tale to parties considering embracing dangerous demagogues.

We've been getting flooded with Trump commercials here in AZ.

Also, a LOT of negative ads regarding Mark Kelly.

Brian wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:11 pm We've been getting flooded with Trump commercials here in AZ.

Also, a LOT of negative ads regarding Mark Kelly.

That's going really well so far.

https://twitter.com/timothypmurphy/stat ... 0772511755

Latest FOX News poll:

FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

Grifman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:02 pm Latest FOX News poll:

FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

Get ready for:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1276232457453481987

Biden on Trump: "Amazingly, he still hasn't grasped the most basic fact of this crisis: to fix the economy we have to get control over the virus. He's like a child who can't believe this has happened to him. All his whining & self-pity ... his job is to do something about it."

Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Yeah, that was a bombshell.

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:11 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Yeah, that was a bombshell.

Cue the "socialized medicine!" chorus.

Kraken wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:11 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Yeah, that was a bombshell.

Cue the "socialized medicine!" chorus.

He presented it in a way that didn't seem really scary, but yeah, that doesn't matter to the chorus.

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:28 pm

Kraken wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:11 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Yeah, that was a bombshell.

Cue the "socialized medicine!" chorus.

He presented it in a way that didn't seem really scary, but yeah, that doesn't matter to the chorus.

My first reply said "That's one small step for America...one giant leap for Joe Biden." But I deleted it because I'm an outlier.

Kraken wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:29 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:28 pm

Kraken wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:11 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Yeah, that was a bombshell.

Cue the "socialized medicine!" chorus.

He presented it in a way that didn't seem really scary, but yeah, that doesn't matter to the chorus.

My first reply said "That's one small step for America...one giant leap for Joe Biden." But I deleted it because I'm an outlier.

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Biden's supported the publicly supported the public option for a long time.

For example, from last year

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:52 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Who? Biden's supported the publicly supported the public option for a long time.

I thought there was some debate there, and that Biden had been attacked from the left for not supporting it.

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:55 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:52 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Who? Biden's supported the publicly supported the public option for a long time.

I thought there was some debate there, and that Biden had been attacked from the left for not supporting it.

You're confusing the "public option" (medicare available as an option to all, and in competition with private health insurance) with "Medicare for All" (No private health insurance, just medicare for everyone. At least, that's how it was used during the primary, although historically the term has meant other things, including the public option)

(For a second there I had thought maybe Trump had just announced his support... )

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:57 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:55 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:52 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Who? Biden's supported the publicly supported the public option for a long time.

I thought there was some debate there, and that Biden had been attacked from the left for not supporting it.

You're confusing the "public option" (medicare available as an option to all, and in competition with private health insurance) with "Medicare for All" (No private health insurance, just medicare for everyone. At least, that's how it was used during the primary, although historically the term has meant other things, including the public option)

(For a second there I had thought maybe Trump had just announced his support... )

Yup. Hell the public option was almost part of Obamacare in 2009. Would've been in the filibuster wasn't a thing.

Time to campaign on health care again:

Trump administration asks Supreme Court to invalidate Obamacare

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics ... index.html

Meanwhile

Biden, who is planning to make a new health care push on protecting the Affordable Care Act this week, was vice president when former President Barack Obama signed the bill into law in 2010. He is calling for strengthening it by making federal premium subsides more generous and allowing more people to qualify for subsidies. He would also add a government-run public option and would lower the Medicare eligibility age to 60.

The filings come a day after House Democrats unveiled a bill to enhance the landmark law. Similar to Biden's plan, it would make Obamacare policies more affordable by bolstering federal premium subsidies -- limiting monthly premiums to 8.5% of enrollees' income and allowing more middle class Americans to receive the subsidies by eliminating the income cap of four times the poverty level. It also tries to entice more states to expand Medicaid to low-income adults by covering 100% of the cost for the first three years.

They ought pound this point home in all of the swing states. There are a lot of Trump voters with ACA (and some who don't even know they have "Obamacare". If the vote is close, these are votes that could make a difference.

hepcat wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:00 pm I refuse to have hope. Hope failed me in 2016.

Term limits.

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:55 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:52 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm Wow. He just declared fully for a public option.

Who? Biden's supported the publicly supported the public option for a long time.

I thought there was some debate there, and that Biden had been attacked from the left for not supporting it.

I've seen some attacks from the left (as recently as yesterday!) due to Biden not supporting Medicare-for-all.

Trump's response to Hannity when asked about his second term agenda:

Well one of the things that will be really great: you know, the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It's a very important meaning. I never did this before, I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington I think 17 times, all of a sudden I’m the president of the United States, you know the story, I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, “This is great.” But I didn’t know very many people in Washington, it wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody. And I have great people in the administration. You make some mistakes, like you know an idiot like Bolton, all he wanted to do is drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people.

This is his answer?

In fairness, his agenda probably is to congratulate himself for simple things that aren’t accomplishments (like sleeping over in Washington, and hiring awful people for important jobs).

Grifman wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:51 am Trump's response to Hannity when asked about his second term agenda:

Well one of the things that will be really great: you know, the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It's a very important meaning. I never did this before, I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington I think 17 times, all of a sudden I’m the president of the United States, you know the story, I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, “This is great.” But I didn’t know very many people in Washington, it wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody. And I have great people in the administration. You make some mistakes, like you know an idiot like Bolton, all he wanted to do is drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people.

This is his answer?

It's remarkable that Trump walks into the friendliest imaginable tongue-bath of an interview without a single prepared answer.

Doesn't he know that Hannity's job is to toss him softballs so that he can generate soundbites? Work with him here, Donny!

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:08 am In fairness, his agenda probably is to congratulate himself for simple things that aren’t accomplishments (like sleeping over in Washington, and hiring awful people for important jobs).

But now he knows everybody. So he can swim in the swamp.

So his agenda is to meet people and listen to Jimi Hendrix?

The Trump campaign is now buying ads in Georgia as his support continues to bleed out.

I really really really hope that folks remember he won in the first place in large part due to embarrassingly low turn out. We need everyone to show the hell up and vote (whether showing up in person or via mail matters not).

Yes, turnout is the key - and Trump’s ad strategy shows he knows it too. This is an excellent article as to how Trump plans to depress turnout among key Democratic groups and win with just white voters:

https://crooked.com/articles/donald-tru ... an-to-win/

Remus West wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:44 pm I really really really hope that folks remember he won in the first place in large part due to embarrassingly low turn out.

Yup - running two disliked candidates does that. I think many folks know the stakes now and Biden is at least liked. That'll help.

We need everyone to show the hell up and vote (whether showing up in person or via mail matters not).

This is the barrier. The pandemic may cause issues with the election. SCOTUS has now repeatedly frustrated efforts to deal with the pandemic in red states so this is an area of concern.

Grifman wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:45 am Yes, turnout is the key - and Trump’s ad strategy shows he knows it too. This is an excellent article as to how Trump plans to depress turnout among key Democratic groups and win with just white voters:

https://crooked.com/articles/donald-tru ... an-to-win/

I think articles like this give Trump too much credit but maybe the 'secret point' of the article is to scare people into voting.

Though this is another area where Biden's 'lack of fight' or more accurately being competent at the devolved level of political rhetoric in the Trump era is a problem. He stepped right into a trap on the mental decline angle. I appreciate the irony of complaining that Biden doesn't have enough fight and then Biden takes a swipe at Trump on Russia. I think that he needs to be more agile about it or not engage in Trump's game. This is the part of his game that worries me most about him. He needs to not step into blinking bear traps. Hopefully he got charred enough to know that maybe this isn't the best way to win for him. He also got lucky that the story didn't blow wide about the demands for his 'cognitive tests'. At least yet. We'll see how that develops because the campaign had to backtrack and say his 'performance' was his cognitive test.