Octopus Overlords

Looking like circuit breakers on open for all exchanges.

I'm kicking myself for not buying some puts yesterday.

I'm tempted to somehow sneak in a limit buy-to-open order, but I doubt I'll get the price I want. But if the market is heading for a full on panic would it matter? Anyway looking at SPY 200 May through July puts -- trying to balance out volatility vs capital at risk. Nice thing about going out longer is Theta decay will be less so that's nice. More capital required though to buy out that time. Down side is that the deltas

60 Days 45.01%
90 Days 41.82%
120 Days 39.13%

Still roughly 3x-4x above normal....

Other option is trying to jump into something like SQQQ/SPXS for a pure short term hedge the day play. My broker wants me to sign off on something to do something with them and looking back at how it reacted on Monday there is probably no chance of getting in early.No point buying if price adjusts in the first second, but if there is an opportunity I guess jump on it. Suspect market will halt pretty early again.

Market is going to open limit down. I imagine the spread on my SQQQ calls will be $10-$15.

Jim Cramer is in CNBC laying out his federal policy and it's like he talking directly to Trump. Scary thing is there's a chance Trump is watching and will do what he says.

Got a moment to look at pre-market. I figured the overnight news would border panic but I think we're there. The bottom is on the horizon and it looks like it will be worse than thought. I really think this is a direct result of sporting events announcements.

One of my CDs just matured. I'm putting in a bunch of limit buys and see if I get any.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:06 am Jim Cramer is in CNBC laying out his federal policy and it's like he talking directly to Trump. Scary thing is there's a chance Trump is watching and will do what he says.

Were Kudlow and Cramer chumy?

stessier wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:19 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:06 am Jim Cramer is in CNBC laying out his federal policy and it's like he talking directly to Trump. Scary thing is there's a chance Trump is watching and will do what he says.

Were Kudlow and Cramer chumy?

Kind of. But they threw Kudlow under the bus this morning. "We had Larry on a week ago telling us everything was fine. It wasn't fine, it isn't fine..."

Think we just hit the first 15 minute pause

Down 1700!

Huge warning signs are flashing right now as liquidity has been an issue across multiple markets especially in bonds. The Fed stepped in and opened a loan window to help but it looks like major liquidity players are stepping away. The potential that this could be worse than 2008 is increasingly on the table. The Fed might have to step in and start making asset purchases to bring liquidity back into the market.

Note: The ECB just announced it is stepping up their version of QE and expanding loan programs to financial institutions. There was some surprise they didn't cut rates but I don't find that hard as it's essentially 0 with a negative interest rate on reserves. They don't have any gas left in that tank.

Cramer's spiel this morning included a 2-week market and tax holiday. Markets closed and no taxes for 2 weeks. Bailouts all over. Because we can't have a collapse from an illness. That just isn't right.

Since when has "right" mattered in capital markets?

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:56 pm Cramer's spiel this morning included a 2-week market and tax holiday. Markets closed and no taxes for 2 weeks. Bailouts all over. Because we can't have a collapse from an illness. That just isn't right.

Since when has "right" mattered in capital markets?

Government control are bad until they aren't. We don't need them until I am being badly hurt or exposed.

Fed Reserve bailing us out.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:04 pm Fed Reserve bailing us out.

and like that up we go. At least for now. Money grabs all around. Up and down. Stupid me jumped in pre-market with one of my CDs freshly maturing not knowing how bad it would get after the sports announcements one after another after close. At least they'll benefit for the moment.

I still don't think this is the bottom but I'm still buying because I'm an idiot. (This is anti me in 2007 as for the first time, I think this might his 2008 levels of collective drain. It we stop consuming that quick and we stop "saving" that quick and the safety next has holes everywhere...)

Edit and down. That was nuts!
Edit wow. I wish I had time to watch this.

Fed providing liquidity. Not solving any underlying problems.

I've heard there is such a thing as a "bull trap" in these market scenarios where everything looks like it's going to stabilize and then the rug gets pulled out from underneath again. That said I'm holding some overpriced puts that I was stupid enough to buy and will have to escape at some point -- fortunately I bought just a small position.

xwraith wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:50 pm I've heard there is such a thing as a "bull trap" in these market scenarios where everything looks like it's going to stabilize and then the rug gets pulled out from underneath again. That said I'm holding some overpriced puts that I was stupid enough to buy and will have to escape at some point -- fortunately I bought just a small position.

It happens when everything looks "cheap".

Most of the Fed bump is gone.

I am legit shocked at the number of real life friends who are today saying they have been "laid off" this week. I am officially in the "shit's real" category of investing. When people aren't working, business isn't working. Right after I put all that money in (Where it will stay). If you had told me in December, we're going to have pandemic shortly in the US that will shut down US sports spectators and this will be the nail that shatters our glass house stock market, I would have said "Interesting though, but even I'm not full of that much hyperbole."

Rolled out of the $21 calls to $30. Booking some profit but want that hedge on.

At the day low. Dow down 2100, over 15% this week.

I took my money from my 401(k) and moved it to my IRA last summer to get everything all in one place. When I did that it looked like a recession was on the way, so I kept out of stocks, kept it all in short term cash. The market kept going up and I kept wondering if I was missing out as the market continued to climb. But I just had this hunch and stayed put. I still have all my gains through the middle of the summer. Now I look like a freaking genius - better lucky than good I guess.

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:22 pm I took my money from my 401(k) and moved it to my IRA last summer to get everything all in one place. When I did that it looked like a recession was on the way, so I kept out of stocks, kept it all in short term cash. The market kept going up and I kept wondering if I was missing out as the market continued to climb. But I just had this hunch and stayed put. I still have all my gains through the middle of the summer. Now I look like a freaking genius - better lucky than good I guess.

I think I've documented it here but my dad couldn't sleep with money in the market a year and a half ago and asked me to move him to cash. He was about 70% cash as of last week.

I halved my 401k funds and sold most of my BA and DIS (two of my top 5 individual holdings) in Jan and Feb. My 401k is like 60% cash but my newer 403b is all funds.

This is what I was waiting for but I still feel over exposed.


The question now is how long to wait.

Future up 5%. Pointing to 1000 points on the Dow.

Huh, never knew that S&P Futures had a lock limit up.

At any rate looking to re-establish a SPY put position to hedge -- I suspect today may be a pop and slow drop, a lot is going to depend on volatility dropping though.

Cramer has Mnuchin's ear on CNBC right now. "We'll take that idea to the president..."

Fighting to stay in positive territory. Seems weird to say when the majors are all up 2% but that's how it feels.

I’ve cashed out.

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:03 pm I’ve cashed out.

[R&P]I'm surprised the market isn't full of this on the eve of speech about to occur[/R&P]

I have not cashed out and it hurts. In for a penny....

LordMortis wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:43 pm
[R&P]I'm surprised the market isn't full of this on the eve of speech about to occur[/R&P]

As usual there is complete uncertainty about the Trump press conference. Volatility is the only constant right now.

Fed band-aid not that helpful.

Stock futures plunged Sunday night even after the Federal Reserve embarked on a massive monetary stimulus campaign to curb slower economic growth amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Stock market futures hit “limit down” levels of 5% lower, a move made by the CME futures exchange to reduce panic in markets. No prices can trade below that threshold, only at higher prices than that down 5% limit.

Market ETFs (best proxy when futures are frozen) have major indices down 10%+.

What are folks' thoughts on when we might see the time to start sneaking back in? I'm not at all confident that we're at the bottom, but since this sure seems like something that will pass (ie COVID-19 is not a systemic change to the system--it's something we'll clearly get through and return to normal), when do we hit the point when the market collectively stops freaking out?

Sorry, had to try to move the conversation from the ever-depressing 'how much we down today, Jack?'

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:10 am Market ETFs (best proxy when futures are frozen) have major indices down 10%+.

That'd get us back to Friday. I think it might hit the 2nd breaker today. Everyone had a weekend to digest some of the China numbers which were dire (e.g. as an example new car sales for the quarter were down 92%). Plus all the political issues.

@Zaxxon - I don't think anyone would be able to guess at a bottom without a dart board. I wouldn't suspend auto-401K (might as well average down) but investing new money long is probably not a great idea.

It depends on your current cash situation and your goals.

For me, I'm still waiting for DOW 20,000 as a general guideline to even start looking. If it doesn't get there I'll reassess.

Still sitting on SQQQ calls.

malchior wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:16 am @Zaxxon - I don't think anyone would be able to guess at a bottom without a dart board. I wouldn't suspend auto-401K (might as well average down) but investing new money long is probably not a great idea.

That's where I'm at, too. Growing the cash pile at present and William Wallace (hoooolllddd!)ing.

Holy cow. Opened at the 1st breaker. Running close to the 2nd breaker already. We might be seeing a 3 breaker day.

Bought a little RGR.

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:19 am

malchior wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:16 am @Zaxxon - I don't think anyone would be able to guess at a bottom without a dart board. I wouldn't suspend auto-401K (might as well average down) but investing new money long is probably not a great idea.

That's where I'm at, too. Growing the cash pile at present and William Wallace (hoooolllddd!)ing.

Me, OTOH, after the first 5%, I bought at every step on the way down and need to reload cash.