Octopus Overlords

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:22 pm I took my money from my 401(k) and moved it to my IRA last summer to get everything all in one place. When I did that it looked like a recession was on the way, so I kept out of stocks, kept it all in short term cash. The market kept going up and I kept wondering if I was missing out as the market continued to climb. But I just had this hunch and stayed put. I still have all my gains through the middle of the summer. Now I look like a freaking genius - better lucky than good I guess.

Same basic story, except I’ve been out of the market longer and missed some of the ride up. Still, having my 401K not in stocks right now is at least one thing not causing me stress.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:37 am

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:19 am

malchior wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:16 am @Zaxxon - I don't think anyone would be able to guess at a bottom without a dart board. I wouldn't suspend auto-401K (might as well average down) but investing new money long is probably not a great idea.

That's where I'm at, too. Growing the cash pile at present and William Wallace (hoooolllddd!)ing.

Me, OTOH, after the first 5%, I bought at every step on the way down and need to reload cash.

I did buy some more ARKK this am.

Kurth wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:43 am

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:22 pm I took my money from my 401(k) and moved it to my IRA last summer to get everything all in one place. When I did that it looked like a recession was on the way, so I kept out of stocks, kept it all in short term cash. The market kept going up and I kept wondering if I was missing out as the market continued to climb. But I just had this hunch and stayed put. I still have all my gains through the middle of the summer. Now I look like a freaking genius - better lucky than good I guess.

Same basic story, except I’ve been out of the market longer and missed some of the ride up. Still, having my 401K not in stocks right now is at least one thing not causing me stress.

That's not a choice here. Our controller insists our 401k is more robust than most but there is no real choice to turn the 401k to anything but funds based on securities and to a lesser extent bonds.

Also TSLA is back down the point where I'd think about buying more but as usual I'm in reload mode and "under 500" is still a lot of money and more than I technically thing they have in value and therefore still see as gambling.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:45 am

Kurth wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:43 am

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:22 pm I took my money from my 401(k) and moved it to my IRA last summer to get everything all in one place. When I did that it looked like a recession was on the way, so I kept out of stocks, kept it all in short term cash. The market kept going up and I kept wondering if I was missing out as the market continued to climb. But I just had this hunch and stayed put. I still have all my gains through the middle of the summer. Now I look like a freaking genius - better lucky than good I guess.

Same basic story, except I’ve been out of the market longer and missed some of the ride up. Still, having my 401K not in stocks right now is at least one thing not causing me stress.

That's not a choice here. Our controller insists our 401k is more robust than most but there is no real choice to turn the 401k to anything but funds based on securities and to a lesser extent bonds.

Surely you can buy a money market fund. What is the broker?

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:48 am Surely you can buy a money market fund. What is the broker?

johnhancock but it's a few levels deep when trying to find it through the Internet.

Look at that, there is a moneymarket way after the bonds paying .10%

And a guaranteed annual fund of --

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:45 am

Kurth wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:43 am

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:22 pm I took my money from my 401(k) and moved it to my IRA last summer to get everything all in one place. When I did that it looked like a recession was on the way, so I kept out of stocks, kept it all in short term cash. The market kept going up and I kept wondering if I was missing out as the market continued to climb. But I just had this hunch and stayed put. I still have all my gains through the middle of the summer. Now I look like a freaking genius - better lucky than good I guess.

Same basic story, except I’ve been out of the market longer and missed some of the ride up. Still, having my 401K not in stocks right now is at least one thing not causing me stress.

That's not a choice here. Our controller insists our 401k is more robust than most but there is no real choice to turn the 401k to anything but funds based on securities and to a lesser extent bonds.

Really? That seems crazy. I’m no expert in 401Ks, but I thought you always had a choice in terms of where you parked your withholdings. I also thought they always presented at least one very low risk option.

Mine isn’t in “cash” actually. It’s in a low risk stable value fund, similar to a money market.

Quick check in TSLA down to $450. Zaxxon you should have retired when I said so.

Ug-lee. I wish I had more money to throw down the drain but I'm tapped of all my reasonable funding. I guess we'll revisit at the end of the month.

Nothing's down the drain until you sell or civilization collapses. I trimmed when it was higher so I'm just riding it out. Company fundamentals are getting better, not worse.

This too shall pass.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:51 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:48 am Surely you can buy a money market fund. What is the broker?

johnhancock but it's a few levels deep when trying to find it through the Internet.

Look at that, there is a moneymarket way after the bonds paying .10%

And a guaranteed annual fund of --

That's "cash" in a 401K.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:46 pm That's "cash" in a 401K.

I don't remember even seeing those as an option when I re-organized before. It's buried in the Bond Funds for ultra conservative "income", which I don't accept as truth. How is it income if there is still substantial risk? But it is there. I'm not about to move my money now, but it's good to know.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:51 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:46 pm That's "cash" in a 401K.

I don't remember even seeing those as an option when I re-organized before. It's buried in the Bond Funds for ultra conservative "income", which I don't accept as truth. How is it income if there is still substantial risk? But it is there. I'm not about to move my money now, but it's good to know.

JHOXX?

Income funds target a dividend or other yield rather than appreciation. For a money market, there shouldn't be substantial risk which means there is very little income.

It’s basically a place to park your money when you are feeling risk averse. No upside, but not much risk either.

I admit that I feel a bit smug. I'm sure it will pass.

CNN says stocks are "set to surge" on open.

Futures point to an open around +1%. I may have a different definition of "surge" than CNN does.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:57 am CNN says stocks are "set to surge" on open.

Futures point to an open around +1%. I may have a different definition of "surge" than CNN does.

True dat, especially following New Black Monday. It's almost as if the market media thrives on providing insufficient context.

Stock headlines are trash. "Stocks drop/rise X% as investors <insert one current headline that may explain some portion of a very complicated system>" happens daily and is a load of horse shit every time. I rail on it for Tesla since I follow TSLA the closest, but it seems to be true pretty much industry-wide.

Aaaand, they're negative. DOW currently off half a percent.

First free moment I've had since very early this morning. Down, down, down. Except KR. I'm debating selling my 28 shares again, only this could go on a while.

I went to Aldi last night for my Monday post work grocery shop, There were four loaves of bread (I got one), no milk, no eggs, almost no frozen foods. Assuming all grocers are this way, I can see why KR is up up up.

Note: I am *not* an investor outside of my 401k (and employee stock plan where I generally sell ASAP, except this month -- yeah I'll be holding those shares for a while, oops).

401k is down 25% YTD. My employer is off 50% YTD, thinking about moving from the general fund to the employer tracking fund, which if everything recovers eventually would put me at 150%. The only thing holding me back is that we aren't close to the bottom so I could be missing a bigger opportunity. I have faith my employers stock will recover and have more upside than the market in general.

I'm still 15-20 years away from retirement and the world may end before then anyway. I'm a little skittish here because the numbers are big and the market is a mess...

Looking at +5% now, give or take depending on the index and minute to minute.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:08 pm Looking at +5% now, give or take depending on the index and minute to minute.

I think wild swings in the market are going to be the norm for a while. Go up any time there's decent news, go down any time there's no/bad news.

pr0ner wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:58 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:08 pm Looking at +5% now, give or take depending on the index and minute to minute.

I think wild swings in the market are going to be the norm for a while. Go up any time there's decent news, go down any time there's no/bad news.

Half a trillion in bank funding will do that. Trump has already made it clear that the market is his presidential scorecard.

Got a little BA at around $101.5. Buying small chunks because it is very uncertain down here. I had like 3.59 shares left (odd lot from DRIP).

Also got small amounts of DIS, DUK.

APRN up 124%. Crazy. Option premiums are out of control.

I was early to the Disney party. I thought 105 was a good buy in. I'm sure I'll be picking and choosing to pick up more at the end of the month. I did not see WFH and mandatory and voluntary quarantines happening like this on the way down. This is gonna last for about a minute, so I'm pretty confident the market will wait for pay day before deciding we are anything approaching the bottom.

Every account I have that is not a CD or money market is in brutal mode. Like year's worth of living expenses are currently not accounted for. I think I'm currently down about five year's living expenses total. Two of which are from my personal account that I plan to be my holdover between now an 59.5. Has anyone checked in on Scuzz? I can only imagine having just retired and seeing this. (I don't even want to imagine the "working poor" and paycheck to paycheck workers). I'm stressing because my retirement timeline is being exposed as fraudulent (which sucks because health reasons). I'm so thankful I can't empathize with not knowing how I'm going to pay my bills or eat or get shit paper today.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:41 am APRN up 124%. Crazy. Option premiums are out of control.

$17.67 Day's Change 11.12 (169.77%)

coopasonic wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:55 am Note: I am *not* an investor outside of my 401k (and employee stock plan where I generally sell ASAP, except this month -- yeah I'll be holding those shares for a while, oops).

401k is down 25% YTD. My employer is off 50% YTD, thinking about moving from the general fund to the employer tracking fund, which if everything recovers eventually would put me at 150%. The only thing holding me back is that we aren't close to the bottom so I could be missing a bigger opportunity. I have faith my employers stock will recover and have more upside than the market in general.

I'm still 15-20 years away from retirement and the world may end before then anyway. I'm a little skittish here because the numbers are big and the market is a mess...

I moved 40% to the company fund at close yesterday.

Bouncing between another 20-25% off today. May be moving another big chunk in today. There's still room for further drops.

coopasonic wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:46 pm There's still room for further drops.

Agreed, and yet here I am not moving. Stupid is as stupid does.

Bill Ackman is in CNBC right now. Love him or hate him or don't know who he is, it's worth a listen. Lessons there.

Looks like trading halted while I was in the phone. Circuit breaker. Guess President Market calmed no one.

My deep, deep March hedges are hitting. F $4.50 Puts.

Ugly.

F went as low as $3 in the 2008 era and that was after cutting dividends. That's kind of my guidance right now. It wasn't two weeks ago (when taught myself options and bought one at $7 for late April), but it is now. Paying over $15 a share in 2014 is just flat out painful.

.F200320P4.5 up 242%. Small consolation with the number of shares I'm sitting on.

But still a consolation.

Reports are emerging that Ford, GM, and Fiat Chrysler are going to shut down U.S. production. This is possibly a depression-level event. Not sure what the time frame is yet.

F is suspending dividend, accessing $15B in credit. 6 month "payment relief" for new car financing.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:09 am F is suspending dividend, accessing $15B in credit. 6 month "payment relief" for new car financing.

As of last week, even without the shutdowns that was just a question of time. More than two weeks ago, I couldn't tell for sure and of course by the time it's inevitable, it's too late to back out. The question will be when Ford tumlbes to $3 (and it will) will I be able to warrant buying more to try and offset some of my $15 shares, which is a price no likely to be seen again.

Storing it here so I don't lose it:

FEQIX sold at 49.26
FTEC sold at 60.725 and 60.875 (Roth and Rollover)
IVV sold at 255.5408
IVW sold at 160.585
RSP sold at 85.3247 and 85.571 (Roth and Rollover)
XAR sold at 76.9564

Rebalanced 401k to SPAXX:
Fid 500 Index $94.39
Fid Total Intl Idx $9.58
TRP Growth Stock $64.18
Vang MdCpGr Idx Adm $56.95
Vang SmCp Gr Idx Adm $54.55

My sister told me today on the phone that my niece lost $37,000 in investments in one day...yesterday. Thats her entire retirement.

Daehawk wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:23 am My sister told me today on the phone that my niece lost $37,000 in investments in one day...yesterday. Thats her entire retirement.

Is your niece retiring soon?

You all laughed at my Roth CDs while you were making the phat bucks. Who's laughing now? When interest rates briefly spiked last year, I locked in up to 3% for up to five years. My Roth is only about 15% of our retirement money, so I'm as ruined as everybody else, but I'm feeling smug about having at least some safe savings right now.