Octopus Overlords

Nevada is highly mormon and conservative, plus Trump should have pull among Vegas workers accustomed to the ridiculous showiness. Both Cruz and Rubio are technically non-white, and I speculate that may have been a factor.

Still, I expected Cruz to benefit from the demographics more and Rubio from the establishment coalition. This lets Trump claim momentum, but he still needed to have an organization to win Super Tuesday. I fear Trump may have enough help from these wins to overcome that weakness, but it's still something to be tested. If Trump wins with the same margins, it's game over unless he implodes suddenly.

GreenGoo wrote:
In a discussion with my wife this morning, my position was pretty similar to Rip's. If he gets in the office, there is enough process involved in getting anything done that nothing truly outrageous (if he even tries the whacky things he says he'll do) will make it through. He's not going to burn down the country in 4 years (or 8 years).

I don't think it's far-fetched to have him throw a tantrum when he doesn't get his way, possibly to the extent of taking his ball and going home. He seems utterly vindictive. That would probably tank his stature as a businessman though, so maybe it's more unlikely than I think.

I don't think he's been an actual businessman in any real sense of the word in ages. He's a brand only. And yes, I totally see him flying off the handle every single time someone insults even his hair if he gets elected. We don't need a 10 year old with thin skin running the show.

Alefroth wrote: I don't think it's far-fetched to have him throw a tantrum when he doesn't get his way, possibly to the extent of taking his ball and going home. He seems utterly vindictive. That would probably tank his stature as a businessman though, so maybe it's more unlikely than I think.

Why ever would you say that?

Read a Vanity Fair piece over lunch that was part indulgent writing and part quotes. Writer was in West Virginia (as the state with the most Trump support apparently) moving around counties to interview people on their thoughts.

I was amazed at how angry everyone seemed. Lots of anger (economy based I'd say), some "he's a businessman, he'll run it like a business (like this is a good thing)" and some "he's successful, so he must be smart". And a sprinkling of "he don't take shit from nobody, he speaks his mind, like me".

Not a single person who liked his political ideas or anything specific. Just "he's a cowboy, and boy-howdy, that seems like a good idea to me".

It's like if you run for the Presidency you are automatically legit so I won't bother vetting him personally. Weird.

GreenGoo wrote:Read a Vanity Fair piece over lunch that was part indulgent writing and part quotes. Write was in West Virginia (as the state with the most Trump support apparently) moving around counties to interview people on their thoughts.

I was amazed at how angry everyone seemed. Lots of anger (economy based I'd say), some "he's a businessman, he'll run it like a business (like this is a good thing)" and some "he's successful, so he must be smart". And a sprinkling of "he don't take shit from nobody, he speaks his mind, like me".

Not a single person who liked his political ideas or anything specific. Just "he's a cowboy, and boy-howdy, that seems like a good idea to me".

It's like if you run for the Presidency you are automatically legit so I won't bother vetting him personally. Weird.

If he ran the US like a business, he'd probably lay off all of his supporters and declare bankruptcy.

I am aware. Then he'd borrow from china and buy up all the real estate that he just deflated and build a casino with the best, most luxurious copper you have ever seen.

I forgot to mention that more than one interviewee expressed some embarrassment for supporting Trump. That didn't stop them from supporting him though, just that they seemed to "know" other people thought they were being dumb and so didn't want to spread the knowledge that they support Trump around. Like, "sssh, don't tell anyone, but yeah, Trump seems like a good idea. I think others think I'm dumb to have that opinion though, so don't tell anyone" which was kind of hilarious.

There's a lot of people who would go into that voting booth, pull the handle for Trump, and tell everyone they voted for Hillary.

Do I think Trump will be the next president? No, but I'm really careful about overestimating the intelligence and common sense of the American people. History is littered with people who said "that could never happen" right before it did.

Apparently Trump supporters don't care for 19th century mainstream Republicans either.

In fairness, given the phrasing of the question, it says more about the stupidity of the American people than about the racism of the American people. It reminds me of the Bullshit! segment where they sent someone to an Earth Day rally with a petition calling for the removal of Di-Hydrogen Monxide from drinking water.

YellowKing wrote:There's a lot of people who would go into that voting booth, pull the handle for Trump, and tell everyone they voted for Hillary.

Do I think Trump will be the next president? No, but I'm really careful about overestimating the intelligence and common sense of the American people. History is littered with people who said "that could never happen" right before it did.

Heck THIS FORUM is littered with people that said he had no chance to get the nomination, so I take predictions of his unelectability in the general with a huge grain of salt.

We're also basing his electability on right now. What happens if a major scandal hits Hillary's campaign at the last minute? Or an ISIS attack on US soil has everyone calling for blood? There are a lot of little things that could nudge the needle from "not very likely" to "did that just happen?"

If Hillary was a stronger candidate, or someone that people actually liked, I'd jump on the "not a chance in hell" bandwagon.

One thing's for sure, a Trump vs Hillary debate is going to be TV GOLD.

Jeff V wrote:

Alefroth wrote: I don't think it's far-fetched to have him throw a tantrum when he doesn't get his way, possibly to the extent of taking his ball and going home. He seems utterly vindictive. That would probably tank his stature as a businessman though, so maybe it's more unlikely than I think.

Why ever would you say that?

Maybe Don Trump would be more appropriate than Donald.

Yes, he ranks right up there with the last two stiffs who didn't get elected.

YellowKing wrote:
One thing's for sure, a Trump vs Hillary debate is going to be TV GOLD.

Hillary will come out all cool and factual and wonky, and Trump will ridicule her for being polished, and each one's supporters will think they won.

I've been saying for a long time that Clinton will lose if it comes down to her and Trump, and I'm standing by that.

I just wish I could see a Biden v. Trump debate. That would be entertaining.

Mitt Romney thinks there's a bombshell in Trump's tax returns because he avoids discussing them.

Trump v. Sanders would be a show, too. I'm not sure Bernie wouldn't end up decking Trump.

I like Bernie. Just not his politics!

hepcat wrote:We don't need a 10 year old with thin skin running the show.

I agree. Eight years of that has been quite enough!

Jeff V wrote:Yes, he ranks right up there with the last two stiffs who didn't get elected.

He does better than rank up there with them.

163K more votes than McCain and 108K more than Romney.

They did both win the nomination as well, which he seems to have nearly wrapped up already.

RLMullen wrote:

hepcat wrote:We don't need a 10 year old with thin skin running the show.

I agree. Eight years of that has been quite enough!

Are you adding in Bush's last year? Or just didn't do the math?

Smoove_B wrote: Is it possible that they believe the problem (with his popularity) is that perception that he's a maverick (yeah I said it) on the bleeding edge of what real Americans want to hear? In order to fully kill any chance he has, if he's embraced by the GOP then he won't seem as fringe and sexy? I'm really out of ideas here. I fully believe we've collectively moved into some type of alternative reality...

It is a type of alternate reality. If you fracture something into enough pieces the "fringe" element will become the majority - Anarchy 101.

Likely, the only hope of overcoming trumpageddon will be a unifying, fear factor that unfortunately, will need some kind of serious global event to distract the disgruntled, fringe majority.

Well, with stuff like SU-30s and F-15s continuing to fly the same airspace in Syria, the odds are constantly improving.

Zarathud wrote:Nevada is highly mormon and conservative, plus Trump should have pull among Vegas workers accustomed to the ridiculous showiness. Both Cruz and Rubio are technically non-white, and I speculate that may have been a factor.

Still, I expected Cruz to benefit from the demographics more and Rubio from the establishment coalition. This lets Trump claim momentum, but he still needed to have an organization to win Super Tuesday. I fear Trump may have enough help from these wins to overcome that weakness, but it's still something to be tested. If Trump wins with the same margins, it's game over unless he implodes suddenly.

Not sure what being Mormon has to do with it. Seriously. Was it a factor for Romney? Yes. For trump? I don't think Mormons support trump any more than any other group. Conservative in general? Yes. But trump supporters? Um not sure what you're getting at.

If anything it should have helped Rubio since his family is Mormon and he had Mormon roots. But it didn't.

RLMullen wrote:

hepcat wrote:We don't need a 10 year old with thin skin running the show.

I agree. Eight years of that has been quite enough!

I've never heard this complaint about Obama. Does he really strike you as reflexively petulant? You might not like his policies, but he is always cool.

PLW wrote:

RLMullen wrote:

hepcat wrote:We don't need a 10 year old with thin skin running the show.

I agree. Eight years of that has been quite enough!

I've never heard this complaint about Obama. Does he really strike you as reflexively petulant? You might not like his policies, but he is always cool.

GOP ODS SOP is to insist on the opposite of whatever is true about Obama: e.g., in reality Obama is a very good orator, so Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh push the "teleprompter" meme.

I'm surprised they haven't already tried to brand Trump as the return of wisdom and maturity to the White House.

PLW wrote:

RLMullen wrote:

hepcat wrote:We don't need a 10 year old with thin skin running the show.

I agree. Eight years of that has been quite enough!

I've never heard this complaint about Obama. Does he really strike you as reflexively petulant? You might not like his policies, but he is always cool.

Petulant? That is too strong a term, and one that wasn't used.

Thin skinned? Absolutely!!

Obama is cool when he has a prepared speech. When he speaks off the cuff he reveals his true self, like anyone else. His true self is most certainly "thin skinned", and that is indeed a quality he shares with Trump.

Teleprompter joke in 5...4...3...

Chrisoc13 wrote:

Zarathud wrote:Nevada is highly mormon and conservative, plus Trump should have pull among Vegas workers accustomed to the ridiculous showiness. Both Cruz and Rubio are technically non-white, and I speculate that may have been a factor.

Still, I expected Cruz to benefit from the demographics more and Rubio from the establishment coalition. This lets Trump claim momentum, but he still needed to have an organization to win Super Tuesday. I fear Trump may have enough help from these wins to overcome that weakness, but it's still something to be tested. If Trump wins with the same margins, it's game over unless he implodes suddenly.

Not sure what being Mormon has to do with it. Seriously. Was it a factor for Romney? Yes. For trump? I don't think Mormons support trump any more than any other group. Conservative in general? Yes. But trump supporters? Um not sure what you're getting at.

If anything it should have helped Rubio since his family is Mormon and he had Mormon roots. But it didn't.

All the Mormon's I know* liked Rand Paul. It's hard to say who they will side with in the end, but Trump has not been favorably mentioned.

*not actually all I know, my sample size is 3 Mormons.

The only thing Trump and Obama share is that they're both carbon based lifeforms.

...although in the case of Trump, I do believe that he's been genetically modified to have thinner skin than most humans (a side effect of the eugenics program he was involved in was hair loss, unfortunately). His father wanted the perfect killing machine...but his handwriting sucks so the form he filled out for the scientists was misinterpreted as a request for the perfect yelling machine.

I really need to see Game of Thrones, as I'm sure I'd get it even more, but...

Winter is Trumping

RLMullen wrote:Thin skinned? Absolutely!!

Obama is cool when he has a prepared speech. When he speaks off the cuff he reveals his true self, like anyone else. His true self is most certainly "thin skinned", and that is indeed a quality he shares with Trump.

Not being thick skinned does not make someone thin skinned. Can you point me at a couple of examples where Obama flew off the handle and threaten to take down someone's family because they were critical of him? Or decided to comment on someone's looks because they were asking hard questions? I mean, there has to be examples where any normal human being wouldn't act in the exact same way, right?

What are they?

I'm not a big supporter of Obama at this point and he certainly has his weaknesses, but to hear that he's thin skinned in the same way as Trump is beyond absurd.

Defiant wrote:I really need to see Game of Thrones, as I'm sure I'd get it even more, but...

Winter is Trumping

I saw that last night. While it's got some funny moments, I still think Darth Trump is funnier.

So if Trumps runs the table on Super Tuesday is the primary fight basically over? I keep watching this train wreck and imagine if this is what it was like in Germany back in the late 20's and 30's during Hitler's rise.

Not trying to be hyperbolic here, but Trump strikes me as the same type person. He was cute , adorable and funny when he was a reality star, but if he wins the Primary he is technically one step away from leading the most powerful nation on this planet. if that doesn't scare people...

I still believe the old guard in the RNC wields enough power, numbers and influence to stop this at some point.

...or should I say hope?

Alternatively - if there's one person that can unite Congress and force them to work with one another, it would be President Trump...mainly to stop him. So we have that going for us. I guess Ted Cruz also has that going for him, unless his peers are just faking their hatred.

His peers fear the far right wing Cruz represents. That's why Obama's SCOTUS nomination has been blocked. If the GOP was going to stand up to Trump, they would have done so already.

The Republicans and Democrats would have joined forces to resist a true outsider like Ross Perot. Not anymore.

tru1cy wrote:So if Trumps runs the table on Super Tuesday is the primary fight basically over? I keep watching this train wreck and imagine if this is what it was like in Germany back in the late 20's and 30's during Hitler's rise.

Not trying to be hyperbolic here, but Trump strikes me as the same type person. He was cute , adorable and funny when he was a reality star, but if he wins the Primary he is technically one step away from leading the most powerful nation on this planet. if that doesn't scare people...

I've heard that the nature of the late, winner-take-all states means that Rubio can pull off a win IF Cruz drops out early enough and IF most of the non-Trump vote goes to Rubio in the right places. (I don't know the math, but it's probably not hard to find. I think 538 and Slate have done some stories on this.)

It's really Cruz who makes Trump inevitable right now. I'm surprised we're not seeing more open pressure from the Old hands to force him out. Possibly they fear that too-obvious pressure will shift Cruzians to Trump.

One wonders if Cruz is now hoping to be Trump's VP.

Is there anyone who might go independent and leech votes from Trump in the general election just to stop him from winning? It would I think have to be someone to the right of Trump to avoid having the ploy backfire.

They'd become a party pariah for handing the White House to Hillary. And the GOP base is not currently in a forgiving mood.

Isgrimnur wrote:They'd become a party pariah for handing the White House to Hillary. And the GOP base is not currently in a forgiving mood.

Not if most of the base actually opposes Trump (or has the good sense to be embarrassed by him). Trump hasn't been winning anywhere with >50% of the vote. But yeah, it could be falling on one's sword. I'm thinking someone who doesn't have future presidential aspirations but still some cred, like perhaps John McCain.

Jeff V wrote:

Isgrimnur wrote:They'd become a party pariah for handing the White House to Hillary. And the GOP base is not currently in a forgiving mood.

Not if most of the base actually opposes Trump (or has the good sense to be embarrassed by him). Trump hasn't been winning anywhere with >50% of the vote. But yeah, it could be falling on one's sword. I'm thinking someone who doesn't have future presidential aspirations but still some cred, like perhaps John McCain.

He hasn't been drawing 50% because there are so many in the race. Drop it to three and he is banging right at that. It is his to lose, and the best thing the others can do is hold their nose and pull the lever for him. It was true when it was an establishment mouthpiece and it is still true now.

If they betray that approach now they risk it becoming true the next time they select a Romney or McCain.