Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:40 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:34 pm I...can't...take it.

https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1243670348211654664

President Trump at the White House just now talking about coronavirus: "You can call it a germ. You can call it a flu. You can call it a virus. You can call it many different names. I'm not sure anyone even knows what it is."

We know what it is you ignorant, over tanned, orange fuck. And for a hint, it has “virus” in the name.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:54 pm

President Trump at the White House just now talking about coronavirus: "You can call it a germ. You can call it a flu. You can call it a virus. You can call it many different names. I'm not sure anyone even knows what it is."

If he wants to call it so much, why doesn't he just reach out and touch it?

(You may now proceed with groans)

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 pm

That kind of remark, coming from someone like a President, is very calculated in my opinion. I don't think it's simply a dumb off the cuff remark. When you think about it, it's perfectly constructed to both troll his critics while also being easily digestible by his anti-intellectual base. I don't believe that's accidental.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 pm

It's intentional in the sense he is marginalizing his role but it is also has a component grounded in the truth that he truly is a fucking moron.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:10 pm

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243556939369496576

"[Trump is] so attentive to the scientific literature & the details & the data. I think his ability to analyze & integrate data that comes out of his long history in business has really been a real benefit” -- this is shocking, hackish stuff from Dr. Birx.

Dogstar · Post by **Dogstar** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:11 pm

I think Trump's comments of the past 48 hours mark the first time ever I've had to actively stay away from the news. Whether it was him opining he knows New York doesn't need that many ventilators or advising the public that it's fine to take drugs that have already been approved for other stuff, or it could be these things:

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status ... 6931272709
https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/ ... 88129?s=20
https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/ ... 91622?s=20

My anger, already simmering, is now nuclear.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:22 pm

Trump is a great doctor. A beautiful doctor. A perfect doctor.

This picture proves trump has plenty of willing TP on hand. If he needs more butt lickers he just has to walk into the Senate.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:59 pm

Grain of salt and all that but this is Trump so probably true.

https://twitter.com/CeFaanKim/status/12 ... 7204856832

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:11 pm

Also if you hear anymore 'it's the flu people' - we are going shoot past 500 dead per day tomorrow....maybe today...probably tomorrow. On the way *up* the curve and death is lagging.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:19 pm

I can't believe I'm sitting here in a reality in which a governor displeased the President, and the President retaliated by refusing aid during a crisis that could to millions of deaths. That's honestly beyond anything he's done before. Corruption, sure. Lying, abuse of power, interfering with an investigation, sure. I can at least imagine that happening. Intentionally letting Americans die for questioning him? What in the holy fuck? How is he not being dragged through the streets Mussolini style?

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:22 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:59 pm Grain of salt and all that but this is Trump so probably true.

https://twitter.com/CeFaanKim/status/12 ... 7204856832

I mean, he does have experience with injecting himself with stuff, so he's probably a credible medical resource, right?

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:03 am

Sounds like a movie...A-rod & A-hole. Maybe a new drink made with Corona beer.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:40 am

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:19 pm I can't believe I'm sitting here in a reality in which a governor displeased the President, and the President retaliated by refusing aid during a crisis that could to millions of deaths. That's honestly beyond anything he's done before. Corruption, sure. Lying, abuse of power, interfering with an investigation, sure. I can at least imagine that happening. Intentionally letting Americans die for questioning him? What in the holy fuck? How is he not being dragged through the streets Mussolini style?

And governors will kiss his ring in order to keep their people alive. Except maybe Cuomo. He gets props for counter-bullying.

Remember how disgusted we were when we learned that Nixon kept an enemies list? Trump's is updated daily on Twitter.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:29 am

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:19 pm How is he not being dragged through the streets Mussolini style?

That came at the end. We haven't suffered a crushing military defeat. Mussolini wasn't executed during his rise to power, he was executed when he had effectively lost power after being ousted by his own government and escaping imprisonment by his king.

Try dragging Trump out of the White House today and it won't end well for you. Wait until Putin busts him out of jail and sets him up as a puppet dictator over the collapsing Southern States of America. Then when the US defeat is all but signed for, then he'll be ripe for the picking and firing squad.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:48 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:29 am
Blackhawk wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:19 pm How is he not being dragged through the streets Mussolini style?
That came at the end. We haven't suffered a crushing military defeat. Mussolini wasn't executed during his rise to power, he was executed when he had effectively lost power after being ousted by his own government and escaping imprisonment by his king.

Try dragging Trump out of the White House today and it won't end well for you. Wait until Putin busts him out of jail and sets him up as a puppet dictator over the collapsing Southern States of America. Then when the US defeat is all but signed for, then he'll be ripe for the picking and firing squad.

There is always the Bernie Bros dream -- a French style revolution complete with guillotines on the national mall. At least that's what I heard from Chris Matthews before he apparated away.

gbasden · Post by **gbasden** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:56 am

I've seen this article being thrown around - Smoove, what are you thoughts?

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

From what I can glean the authors are arguing that there are far more asymptomatic carriers out there than we know about, which implies that the mortality rate is much lower, but that preventing people from being exposed is something of a lost cause.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:00 am

gbasden wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:56 amFrom what I can glean the authors are arguing that there are far more asymptomatic carriers out there than we know about, which implies that the mortality rate is much lower, but that preventing people from being exposed is something of a lost cause.

I believe these type of results are the is the basis of some of the Governor's making those claims of 40-60% exposure rates in their states. That said the *direct* mortality rate is something of a side story. This thing knocks over healthcare systems and the death rate then skyrockets from all causes.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:14 am

The US has surpassed China and Italy for total reported cases. We're number one! We're number one! (fortunately our death per million is still substantially lower than Italy or Spain so, yeah?)

Montag · Post by **Montag** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:24 am

LordMortis wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:14 am The US has surpassed China and Italy for total reported cases. We're number one! We're number one! (fortunately our death per million is still substantially lower than Italy or Spain so, yeah?)

With the third highest population in the world, we would be number one at some point regardless. I am not excusing the ineptitude of our government. There are known problems with the numbers anyway. China is not reporting asymptomatic cases. Weep for the people of India win they starting "winning." 1.3 billion people that could go down worse than Italy.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:39 am

gameoverman wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 pm That kind of remark, coming from someone like a President, is very calculated in my opinion. I don't think it's simply a dumb off the cuff remark. When you think about it, it's perfectly constructed to both troll his critics while also being easily digestible by his anti-intellectual base. I don't believe that's accidental.

Too
Much
Credit

It’s just a dumb off the cuff remark.

You’re looking at it backwards.

His base is a bunch of people that love stupid off the cuff remarks.

There is no hidden ‘genius’ at work here at all.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:42 am

LordMortis wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:14 am The US has surpassed China and Italy for total reported cases. We're number one! We're number one! (fortunately our death per million is still substantially lower than Italy or Spain so, yeah?)

On twitter folks are saying that if you compare "per capita" the US is down to #7 or #30 on the list of countries with the most deaths (depending on whether you include all countries big and small or just the countries with large populations). And because we're not #1 they're saying it's not that bad.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:51 am

gbasden wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:56 am I've seen this article being thrown around - Smoove, what are you thoughts?

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
From what I can glean the authors are arguing that there are far more asymptomatic carriers out there than we know about, which implies that the mortality rate is much lower, but that preventing people from being exposed is something of a lost cause.

Flattening the curve is about hospitals being overwhelmed.
In theory, we may all eventually get it. The distancing would make it so we don’t all need help at the same time.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:55 am

raydude wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:42 am
LordMortis wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:14 am The US has surpassed China and Italy for total reported cases. We're number one! We're number one! (fortunately our death per million is still substantially lower than Italy or Spain so, yeah?)
On twitter folks are saying that if you compare "per capita" the US is down to #7 or #30 on the list of countries with the most deaths (depending on whether you include all countries big and small or just the countries with large populations). And because we're not #1 they're saying it's not that bad.

Well, that is true, you really do need to look at it on a per capita basis, that is entirely valid. Just as you can't give Trump credit when he says we have the most testing - on a per capita basis, we are really very bad.

That said, I've been tracking the number of cumulative deaths for the last 2 to 3 weeks. For that time period the number of cumulative deaths have doubled roughly every 3 days. To show you the power of exponentials, IF the peak of the virus is 30 days out and this trend holds, we will be looking at 120,000+ deaths, and then if it trails off in the same manner we will be at about 200,000 for this round of the virus. Take that Obama, with your crummy 12,000 deaths from H1N1!

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:58 am

Unagi wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:51 am
gbasden wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:56 am I've seen this article being thrown around - Smoove, what are you thoughts?

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
From what I can glean the authors are arguing that there are far more asymptomatic carriers out there than we know about, which implies that the mortality rate is much lower, but that preventing people from being exposed is something of a lost cause.
Flattening the curve is about hospitals being overwhelmed.
In theory, we may all eventually get it. The distancing would make it so we don’t all need help at the same time.

Yes, containment long term is a lost cause, and people are going to die. But if we flatten the curve, hospitals are not overwhelmed and fewer people will die in the end due to lack of medical care. It also gives time for new treatment therapies to be developed before we get a vaccine.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:34 am

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:19 pmHow is he not being dragged through the streets Mussolini style?

Good news, 60% of Americans approve of his leadership through this crisis.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:40 am

Grifman wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:55 amWell, that is true, you really do need to look at it on a per capita basis, that is entirely valid. Just as you can't give Trump credit when he says we have the most testing - on a per capita basis, we are really very bad.

I'm going to disagree with you on this, but like, all gently and stuff.

In a normal course, with universal distribution of the virus, I would totally agree with you. But in this case, where the virus is really impacting pockets of the US, using the number of people living in areas not really impacted yet is kind of hiding the problem (like we do with crime statistics when projected nationally).

If we had per capita numbers, focused on the populations where the outbreaks are actually concentrated, that would be more meaningful to me.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 am

Unagi wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:51 amFlattening the curve is about hospitals being overwhelmed.
In theory, we may all eventually get it. The distancing would make it so we don’t all need help at the same time.

This. Our response is about preventing the collapse of our hospital system.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 am

gbasden wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:56 amFrom what I can glean the authors are arguing that there are far more asymptomatic carriers out there than we know about, which implies that the mortality rate is much lower, but that preventing people from being exposed is something of a lost cause.

There's two main points (I think) and I kinda remember seeing this early on. However the tone here shifted rather quickly from theorizing on prevalence (i.e. how many people already have it) to dealing with practicals (can we really do a lock down?). I'm of the mind it was absolutely here in January, circulating at low levels and moving under the radar. At some point then in late February / early March it was at high enough levels in places like NYC (with enough people getting visibly sick) that it's now a visible problem.

The math involved in figuring all that out is above my pay grade, but I do think once we're clear of this and we start combing through the death records, its likely we're going to puzzle together where this really started and how it spread unnoticed. I'd imagine at that point, the mathematical models will be either proven correct or tweaked based on actual data.

Regarding how many people will ultimately get it, I don't know if this study was the one (or the only one) that suggested the rough number, but I think the general consensus now is that it's correct. Without immunity, this apparently rips through human populations with ease. As pointed out, that's why we're sheltering in place - to minimize the number of people with it at any given time (in the biz we call it point prevalence), thereby minimizing hospitals from being overwhelmed. All we are doing is buying time and given the evidence suggesting how quickly and easily it spreads, it's the only viable solution in the short term (IMHO). By "short term" I mean from now until some point in May - because we have no way of preventing (most) people from being exposed (reliably and easily).

Regarding the mortality rate, it likely is much lower (on average), but there are some interesting trends developing in mortality rates in different countries. For example, Iran and Italy are far above the current global average. US mortality is below, but the average age of mortality is trending lower. This seems to be seriously impacting younger folks to a greater degree in the US than it was reported in China. Is this a true difference or was China not giving the whole story? The rates in Italy and Iran suggest something else is going on. Again, normally I find this stuff absolutely fascinating - the different "host" features than can potentially change disease outcomes. This time, not so much.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 am

Unagi wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:39 am
gameoverman wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 pm That kind of remark, coming from someone like a President, is very calculated in my opinion. I don't think it's simply a dumb off the cuff remark. When you think about it, it's perfectly constructed to both troll his critics while also being easily digestible by his anti-intellectual base. I don't believe that's accidental.
Too
Much
Credit

It’s just a dumb off the cuff remark.

You’re looking at it backwards.

His base is a bunch of people that love stupid off the cuff remarks.

There is no hidden ‘genius’ at work here at all.

This hit me hard in January, before the Coronavirus. Now it's off the charts. Trump's "genius" is that he's the same stupid but with power. He knows how to appeal to stupidity intuitively, then the malice comes afterwards...

“Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force. Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease. Against stupidity we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed – in such moments the stupid person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental. In all this the stupid person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for when dealing with a stupid person than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous.”

RunningMn9 wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 am
Unagi wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:51 amFlattening the curve is about hospitals being overwhelmed.
In theory, we may all eventually get it. The distancing would make it so we don’t all need help at the same time.
This. Our response is about preventing the collapse of our hospital system.

I hope most understand this by now, but I'm shown time and time again that the I'm out of touch with "most"

And welcome back.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:49 am

LordMortis wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 amI hope most understand this by now, but I'm shown time and time again that the I'm out of touch with "most"

And welcome back.

Based on my interaction on social media, I can confidently say the answer is no on that front. And it's good to be back, although I maintained my pipeline into the musings of LordMortis through my hiatus.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:05 am

The four possible timelines of returning to normal over at the Atlantic:

The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19 to stifle the disease’s spread from person to person. That is the end goal, although no one knows exactly how long it will take to get there.

There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored.

For the record, I'm firmly in timeline 3, second universe, but I haven't ruled out timeline 4 depending on what happens over next ~45 days.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:34 am

RunningMn9 wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:49 am
LordMortis wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 amI hope most understand this by now, but I'm shown time and time again that the I'm out of touch with "most"

And welcome back.
Based on my interaction on social media, I can confidently say the answer is no on that front. And it's good to be back, although I maintained my pipeline into the musings of LordMortis through my hiatus.

I don't have musings anymore. I've become angry and I hate myself for it.

Looking at my FB feed, I (a)mused myself on February 13th and that was for all one paragraph.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:57 am

I've suspected it might come to this - word on the street is that new mask recommendations are coming out via the CDC soon, basically encouraging use by the general public NOT as protection from the virus but as a way to minimize droplet spread out into the environment. How they plan to message this when there is currently a severe PPE shortage (and specifically after they told people to stop hoarding masks) having gone out of their way to discourage mask use, I'm not sure. I get it - in an emergency you have to adjust and try new things, but I fear if this is truly the message coming it's going to erode public trust even more.

EDIT: The Trump administration is denying this now, so that must mean it's true? I wish I was joking.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:57 am

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:05 am The four possible timelines of returning to normal over at the Atlantic:

The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19 to stifle the disease’s spread from person to person. That is the end goal, although no one knows exactly how long it will take to get there.

There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored.
For the record, I'm firmly in timeline 3, second universe, but I haven't ruled out timeline 4 depending on what happens over next ~45 days.

Thanks for sharing that article. And for all you are sharing.

On the same website - this article was also a good read: The President Is Trapped. Trump is utterly unsuited to deal with this crisis, either intellectually or temperamentally.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:10 pm

This one's good, too...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... nd/608719/

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:12 pm

I've been reading Ed Yong's stuff for a long time - he's a voice to be trusted.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:23 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:10 pm This one's good, too...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... nd/608719/

spoiler alert.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:41 pm

As per Governor Cuomo, daily ICU admissions and new hospitalizations in NYC dropped significantly on Friday vs Thursday of this week. It's only a single day of data, but if that trend continues for the next 3+ days, that could be indicative of social distancing / shelter-in-place is working. Encouraging.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:41 pm As per Governor Cuomo, daily ICU admissions and new hospitalizations in NYC dropped significantly on Friday vs Thursday of this week. It's only a single day of data, but if that trend continues for the next 3+ days, that could be indicative of social distancing / shelter-in-place is working. Encouraging.

That would at least be excellent news.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:18 pm

Trump Says He's Considering a Quarantine of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut
“I don’t even know what that means,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo responded when asked about Trump's suggestion.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/m7qn ... onnecticut