Ukraine

[Daehawk]

So truth is suppressed and the liars keep lying.

[stessier]

So truth is suppressed and the liars keep lying.

Kind of the definition of a dictatorship.

[Blackhawk]

On the bright side, Yakov Smirnoff will be relevant again.

[xwraith]

From awhile back:

[Isgrimnur]

BBC

The BBC is temporarily suspending its journalists' work in Russia, in response to a new law which threatens to jail anyone Russia deems to have spread "fake" news on the armed forces.

BBC Director-General Tim Davie said the legislation "appears to criminalise the process of independent journalism".
...
Responding to the legislation passed by the Russian authorities, BBC Director-General Tim Davie said: "It leaves us no other option than to temporarily suspend the work of all BBC News journalists and their support staff within the Russian Federation while we assess the full implications of this unwelcome development.

"Our BBC News service in Russian will continue to operate from outside Russia.

[Daehawk]

I think the Ukrainian army is better trained and maybe even equipped than the Russian army. Maybe.

On a side note you'd think the Russians would have learned their lesson with helicopters and stinger missiles in Afghanistan.

[Zaxxon]

Notice that the only people in that video who didn't immediately praise Putin and offer support were young people. The older people remember what it was like. And the younger people are starting to learn. You may know the truth, and you may oppose it, but you don't go on record with your opposition.

Or the old lady at the end...

[Max Peck]

BBC

The BBC is temporarily suspending its journalists' work in Russia, in response to a new law which threatens to jail anyone Russia deems to have spread "fake" news on the armed forces.

BBC Director-General Tim Davie said the legislation "appears to criminalise the process of independent journalism".
...
Responding to the legislation passed by the Russian authorities, BBC Director-General Tim Davie said: "It leaves us no other option than to temporarily suspend the work of all BBC News journalists and their support staff within the Russian Federation while we assess the full implications of this unwelcome development.

"Our BBC News service in Russian will continue to operate from outside Russia.

The CBC is doing likewise.

The CBC has joined the BBC in saying it will temporarily suspend all its reporting from the ground in Russia after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill introducing a prison sentence of up to 15 years for spreading information that goes against the Russian government's position on the war in Ukraine.

In an online statement, CBC/Radio-Canada said it is "very concerned about new legislation passed in Russia, which appears to criminalize independent reporting on the current situation in Ukraine and Russia."

The legislation, which was quickly rubber-stamped by both houses of the Kremlin-controlled parliament earlier Friday, criminalizes the intentional spreading of what Russia deems to be "fake" reports about the war.

The broadcaster said Friday it has temporarily suspended its reporting from the ground in Russia while it seeks "clarity on this legislation."

"We join other media in standing up for a free press and unimpeded access to accurate, independent journalism in Ukraine and Russia. Our journalists have been doing vital work to bring all elements of this story to Canadians and people around the world."

[Zaxxon]

Historically, it's the good guys that nuke the free press, right? Asking for a friend.

[Defiant]

Notice that the only people in that video who didn't immediately praise Putin and offer support were young people. The older people remember what it was like. And the younger people are starting to learn. You may know the truth, and you may oppose it, but you don't go on record with your opposition.

It might also be that younger people, who tend to be more tech-savvy, might also have more access to news sources from outside of Russia

[Defiant]

Historically, it's the good guys that nuke the free press, right? Asking for a friend.

Perhaps not the best phrasing, given all the worries about nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants.

[Zaxxon]

Historically, it's the good guys that nuke the free press, right? Asking for a friend.

Perhaps not the best phrasing, given all the worries about nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants.

[Defiant]

So, is he hacked or is he subtly blaming the US because the US is the great Satan, so he's really calling it an American war?

Because I don't think I could process a world where I agree with him on something.

[Max Peck]

Because I don't think I could process a world where I agree with him on something.

Here, this will explain everything.

Offering #Ukraine a membership in #NATO was only to pave the way for the implementation of the tripartite agreement between the United States, Russia, and China. They are redistributing the world among them. They never grant Ukraine any membership in NATO.

[Max Peck]

An interesting take on The Convoy...

Lady's and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle up for another installment of the "Mud and Truck Maintenance in Ukraine" feed.

And this one will be a doozy, because we are talking about Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv.

Spoiler:

I am going to expand on this earlier tweet on the satellite photo montage.

The Rasputitsa, bad tire maintenance, vehicle overcrowding, and lack of fuel have isolated most of this Russian Army column from its rear.

No matter what kind of fuel conservation techniques they engaged in. The 1st 17km or so of that 64 km Russian Army column is out of fuel.

They planned a 3-day operation which is in its 8th day.

And given the temperatures and radio use, those vehicles have dead batteries.

This is why that Russian 41st CAA general was killed.

He showed up at the head of the column to unscrew the logistical mess, screaming at people and waving his arms in the air in visual range of a Ukrainian Army Sniper.

As for why the Ukrainians haven't rolled up those Russian troops in a 'motti' yet. They were busy.

The Russian Hostomel airbase occupation force had to be annihilated to keep fuel from being airlifted in by helicopter.

The head of this 64km column ain't going anywhere. With or without fuel. The Russians can get neither fuel trucks nor wreckers there.

And this "drop dead effect" is proceeding along the column from south to north. The ONLY way that column will move at all is backwards first

This is assuming it moves at all before the Ukrainians destroy it.

The front and middle of the column showed up with food, fuel & ammo for 3-days, & we are 8-days into the war.

The column is packed so tight that you can only refuel about 100-200 meters of column at a time

via a--holes & elbow by jerry cans. Then carefully back out those refueled trucks in order to get to the next 100 meters with the refueling truck and jerry cans.

It would take a week a month from now, when the ground dries, to unf--k this mess.

The Russian Army will not be able to move trucks off road before then.

Nor in a lot of cases will the Russian Army tanks in that column be able to move off road.

The Russians have formed the world's longest POW camp. And the Ukrainians don't have to feed it.

There simply hasn't been anything like this in warfare since the Anglo-American Anzio beachhead in 1944.

The Russian troops in the 40-50 km of the traffic jam closest to Kyiv will run out of food before the jam can be cleared to them.

They'll have to abandon their vehicles and walk north just to get food.

The reason the Russian column got to be so long was due to Russian Army officers “fulfilling the plan”.

They might be shot by the chain of command for disobeying orders to advance into the traffic jam, but won’t be if they obey orders to fulfill the plan.

I'm not saying Ukraine will win or even that Ukraine can prevent Kyiv from being encircled.

I am saying the Russian Army troops in the first 50 kilometers of that 64 km column will have nothing to do with it.

End

PS.

The Ukrainians really do want to motti that column.

PPS

And the Ukrainians do have the means to hit the fuel trucks at the North end of the Kyiv column to prevent its unwinding before the mud season is over.

[Defiant]

[xwraith]

An interesting take on The Convoy...

Lady's and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle
<snip>A lot of commentary<\snip>

I was reading this thread too. What are the political consequences for Putin if the Russians lose an entire Army? Is this why he was more conciliatory with the German chancellor today?

[raydude]

An interesting take on The Convoy...

Lady's and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle up for another installment of the "Mud and Truck Maintenance in Ukraine" feed.

And this one will be a doozy, because we are talking about Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv.

Spoiler:

I am going to expand on this earlier tweet on the satellite photo montage.

The Rasputitsa, bad tire maintenance, vehicle overcrowding, and lack of fuel have isolated most of this Russian Army column from its rear.

No matter what kind of fuel conservation techniques they engaged in. The 1st 17km or so of that 64 km Russian Army column is out of fuel.

They planned a 3-day operation which is in its 8th day.

And given the temperatures and radio use, those vehicles have dead batteries.

This is why that Russian 41st CAA general was killed.

He showed up at the head of the column to unscrew the logistical mess, screaming at people and waving his arms in the air in visual range of a Ukrainian Army Sniper.

As for why the Ukrainians haven't rolled up those Russian troops in a 'motti' yet. They were busy.

The Russian Hostomel airbase occupation force had to be annihilated to keep fuel from being airlifted in by helicopter.

The head of this 64km column ain't going anywhere. With or without fuel. The Russians can get neither fuel trucks nor wreckers there.

And this "drop dead effect" is proceeding along the column from south to north. The ONLY way that column will move at all is backwards first

This is assuming it moves at all before the Ukrainians destroy it.

The front and middle of the column showed up with food, fuel & ammo for 3-days, & we are 8-days into the war.

The column is packed so tight that you can only refuel about 100-200 meters of column at a time

via a--holes & elbow by jerry cans. Then carefully back out those refueled trucks in order to get to the next 100 meters with the refueling truck and jerry cans.

It would take a week a month from now, when the ground dries, to unf--k this mess.

The Russian Army will not be able to move trucks off road before then.

Nor in a lot of cases will the Russian Army tanks in that column be able to move off road.

The Russians have formed the world's longest POW camp. And the Ukrainians don't have to feed it.

There simply hasn't been anything like this in warfare since the Anglo-American Anzio beachhead in 1944.

The Russian troops in the 40-50 km of the traffic jam closest to Kyiv will run out of food before the jam can be cleared to them.

They'll have to abandon their vehicles and walk north just to get food.

The reason the Russian column got to be so long was due to Russian Army officers “fulfilling the plan”.

They might be shot by the chain of command for disobeying orders to advance into the traffic jam, but won’t be if they obey orders to fulfill the plan.

I'm not saying Ukraine will win or even that Ukraine can prevent Kyiv from being encircled.

I am saying the Russian Army troops in the first 50 kilometers of that 64 km column will have nothing to do with it.

End

PS.

The Ukrainians really do want to motti that column.

PPS

And the Ukrainians do have the means to hit the fuel trucks at the North end of the Kyiv column to prevent its unwinding before the mud season is over.

They need to have this guy on CNN. He makes more sense than some of the retired Generals who have been talking about this convoy. The one doozy that stood out for me was when one general mentioned that "taking out the missile launchers would be the top priority because having a supply of missiles doesn't do you any good if you have nothing to launch them with". I was like, I'm not a military guy, but even I know that the ammo truck is a softer target than the armored vehicle that fires that ammo.

[Unagi]

Some of the weakness in the argument that the war is going not optimally but acceptable range for Putin is that there has been indicators that they are now shipping via train more and much older equipment from the far east of Russia. If true, it'll still take a week or more to get to staging and then has to get into Ukraine from there. That's a sign that they lost far more equipment than they expected.

He's got a few old archer units from the start of the game...

[Defiant]

He's got a few old archer units from the start of the game...

OMG, that rings so true.

[Daehawk]

War in Ukraine: The Russians leaving Russia for Finland

We spoke to one young Russian woman who was leaving for the West - one of the lucky ones who had an EU visa before the sanctions were announced. She was in despair at what has been happening.

"People in Ukraine are our people - our family," she said. "We shouldn't be killing them." Would she think of going back, I asked? "Not while our dreadful government is there. It is so, so sad."

She said most Russians don't want this war, but they risk going to jail if they try to stand up to Putin.

Another woman who has left Russia, this time for Istanbul, told us by phone she had been terrified of a return to life as it was under the Soviet Union.

"I'm 30, I haven't seen the worst... the repressions, the secret police," she said. "I had a very clear fear that if I'm not going to fly out right now, I will not be able to fly out ever."

"On the one hand, it seems this is the moment to get out. On the other, there is a legitimate fear that you will not be able to see your friends and family for God knows how long, if ever."

[Grifman]

A counter narrative - Overall, the Russian plan is working and the Russians are going to win:

[Carpet_pissr]

Which analysts are predicting that? That’s insane just based on sheer numbers alone.

I would accept “continue to repel, for longer, and better than expected”

I think the world writ large knows they are doomed to lose their country without external military help though, right?

[Max Peck]

I haven't seen anyone who I'd take seriously that is predicting that the invasion is going to be repelled in the absence of direct Western military intervention, although I'm sure they're out there, just that it's not going as well as expected and that the occupation will likely be difficult.

[Holman]

This is remarkable.



For *years* Bongino/Shapiro and various Fox personalities have dominated the top 10 FB list, with very little variation. Now, suddenly...

[Holman]

I haven't seen anyone who I'd take seriously that is predicting that the invasion is going to be repelled in the absence of direct Western military intervention, although I'm sure they're out there, just that it's not going as well as expected and that the occupation will likely be difficult.

The Clint Erlich posts point to a couple of high-performing threads that predicted a Russian collapse on the basis of logistics, but they hardly constitute majority opinion.

[raydude]

I haven't seen anyone who I'd take seriously that is predicting that the invasion is going to be repelled in the absence of direct Western military intervention, although I'm sure they're out there, just that it's not going as well as expected and that the occupation will likely be difficult.

The Clint Erlich posts point to a couple of high-performing threads that predicted a Russian collapse on the basis of logistics, but they hardly constitute majority opinion.

"imminent defeat" is kind of click-baiting the Erlich tweet though. Telenko's tweet merely mentions that, even if Russia were to surround Kyiv, the 40 mile convoy won't be playing a major role. I do think that, while the Russians are making gains in the south, it will get harder and harder to advance from the south to the north. Their supply lines will just get longer and longer, and I'm finding a new appreciation for the "rasputitsa" or mud season in Ukraine. I would have thought the Russians would be experienced with traveling over mud, but apparently not?

This analyst makes a good point that Ukraine's military is probably trading space for time in the south.

[$iljanus]

Nothing new you haven't seen in the news but my brother in law who has been involved in car runs to the outskirts of Kyiv to bring in humanitarian supplies and transport out families is seeing more destruction. Back in his home now but I don't know how long they'll be able to maintain that support. But as long as the roads are reletively safe in a war zone I think they'll go as long as they can. (as long as gasoline supplies hold out)

[Jaymann]

A counter narrative - Overall, the Russian plan is working and the Russians are going to win:

I don't think that word means what you think it means. (Clint, not Grifman).

[Blackhawk]

This is remarkable.



For *years* Bongino/Shapiro and various Fox personalities have dominated the top 10 FB list, with very little variation. Now, suddenly...

I am truly curious about how the loss of the Russian bots leading into the second half of 2022 are going to affect the midterms. Not hopeful - I'm past hopeful - but curious.

[Max Peck]

This Clint Erlich chap seems to be very popular with right-wing Americans, so I can only presume that he knows what he's talking about when it comes to gaslighting. I'm sure his analysis is not influenced by his apparent pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine view of the conflict. After scanning his Twitter feed, it seems like he's working very hard to portray the Ukrainian government as the bad guys.

[Kraken]

I am truly curious about how the loss of the Russian bots leading into the second half of 2022 are going to affect the midterms. Not hopeful - I'm past hopeful - but curious.

I hope voters punish the Trumputin wing candidates. A GOP landslide is less disastrous if it's mostly establishment types. However, I fear that by November Russia will have pacified Ukraine to the extent that the Trumputins can declare victory.

[IceBear]

I really feel that 2022 will be the last year in civilized human history with how things are going. Maybe it's seeing events in real time has me feeling bleaker than I did in the 70s and 80s

[Daehawk]

Is that Russian column really out of fuel? Did they, in modern times, pull a Battle of the Bulge move out of their play book?

[malchior]

This Clint Erlich chap seems to be very popular with right-wing Americans, so I can only presume that he knows what he's talking about when it comes to gaslighting. I'm sure his analysis is not influenced by his apparent pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine view of the conflict. After scanning his Twitter feed, it seems like he's working very hard to portray the Ukrainian government as the bad guys.

Yep - hate to judge the book by a cover but his profile banner has Tucker Carlson on it. Lie with the propagandists get branded as a propagandist and such. Some of the actual well respected experts on the Russian military think they'll win still but that they are only a couple of weeks from needing to call a general ceasefire to consolidate. Unfortunately the same goes for the Ukrainian defense.

[xwraith]

He's got a few old archer units from the start of the game...

Probably good for occupation forces though. You don't want your best tanks getting chewed up in a long term occupation, but a T-62/T-55 is adequate against lightly armed resistance. And if a few thousand conscripts die? Putin shrugs.

Need those T-90s sitting on the boarder with Poland, the Baltics and Finland for the next round.

[Isgrimnur]

This Clint Erlich chap seems to be very popular with right-wing Americans, so I can only presume that he knows what he's talking about when it comes to gaslighting. I'm sure his analysis is not influenced by his apparent pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine view of the conflict. After scanning his Twitter feed, it seems like he's working very hard to portray the Ukrainian government as the bad guys.

You mean the party of, “if it’s inevitable, you should just lie back and enjoy it”? I’m shocked.

[Daehawk]

They say Ukranian women are crossing into Poland to buy drones for the Ukranian army. I think they are using one in this video. Nothing like having a birds eye real time view of your targets and where your ranging shot lands.

[Daehawk]

Another thought to keep in mind is just like the Israeli / arab war that here the US and others are giving Ukraine valuable intel on troops movements and placements as well as make up.

[Blackhawk]

I am truly curious about how the loss of the Russian bots leading into the second half of 2022 are going to affect the midterms. Not hopeful - I'm past hopeful - but curious.

I hope voters punish the Trumputin wing candidates. A GOP landslide is less disastrous if it's mostly establishment types. However, I fear that by November Russia will have pacified Ukraine to the extent that the Trumputins can declare victory.

I'm thinking less about the blowback for the Putin-patting, and more about the effect of eight months without right wing social media being manufactured and hyper-promoted by Russia. Without the constant fear-mongering, hate-mongering, and reinforcement being shoved in their faces, how will the echo-chamber Republican voters change? That is to say, those who don't have their own extremist views, but have simply accepted the words of social media bots because that's all they've been hearing. Now that those voices have been silenced...