The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[LordMortis]

I don't necessarily think a rubber stamp on authoritarianism is the concern we should be worried about.

It's exactly what I'm concerned with. And it's not something I've ever been concerned with in my nearly half century on the planet.

[Grifman]

Combine Republican purist jurists--say that three times fast--with the continuously worsening political environment and I think there is an argument to be had that it is problematic.

Why do you think conservative judges are more likely support authoritarianism? I think you'll need some evidence here.

[malchior]

It isn't that they are more authoritarian. It is that single party control creates the conditions even if incidentally.

[El Guapo]

The NRA Is Part of the Trump–Russia Scandal Now.

Russian intervention in the 2016 campaign has a number of complex threads. But the latest development is simple and old-fashioned. McClatchy reports that the FBI is investigating whether a Kremlin-linked Russian banker funneled money through the National Rifle Association to help elect Donald Trump. American law prohibits foreign campaign donations.

The banker, Alexsandr Torshin, has close ties to Vladimir Putin, and the sort of shady connections one expects from an oligarch in the Putin circle. (He has been charged with money laundering overseas and links to mobsters.) Torshin is also a lifetime member of the NRA, hosted NRA delegations visiting Russia, has attended several NRA conventions, and has spoken with gun enthusiast Donald Trump Jr.

Torshin is not the only link between the NRA and Putin. Last February, Tim Mak profiled Maria Butina, a gun-rights activist who has worked in American right-wing politics. At one Washington party immediately after the election, Butina “brazenly claimed that she had been part of the Trump campaign’s communications with Russia, two individuals who were present said. On other occasions, in one of her graduate classes, she repeated this claim,” Mak reported.

Both Butina and Torshin have also worked with Paul Erickson, a veteran Republican operative and gun rights activist who has cultivated close ties to Russia. Erickson has called the alliance between the NRA and “Right to Bear Arms,” its Russian counterpart, a “moral-support operation both ways.” There is a genuine ideological connection between the right-wing ideology of the NRA and of many Russian nationalists, a strand of violence-obsessed authoritarian pan-European nationalism. Of course, if the support given Trump by Russians was not merely moral but also financial, it would violate the law.

It is also worth contemplating the effect any legal trouble for the NRA would have upon the Republican Congress. There is no more untouchable faction of the Republican Party than the NRA. Already, Trump’s allies have coalesced behind him and used their investigative power to support his wild claims that the FBI is part of a sinister deep-state conspiracy against him. If the NRA is swept up in Robert Mueller’s probe, the pressure on Republicans to fire or hamstring his investigation would ramp up to overwhelming levels.

[Sepiche]

House Intel Committee just released the transcript of it's interview with Glenn Simpson:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/document-fu ... -interview

Probably be the same as the Senate Intel transcript: no groundbreaking information, but evidence a number of Republican claims around the Steele Dossier are untrue.

[malchior]

That's ok - the new drumbeat in the Republican alternative universe is a Top Secret 'memo' that they are demanding be released that exposes 'FISA abuses'.

I followed this story a long way down the rabbit hole. It is crazy sauce with extra hot crazy sauce on top but worth a read if you want to see how truly crazy the right has become. I was left to wonder if it is a full-on assault on truth to prepare the base for results from the Mueller investigation. They literally are talking about top officials at the FBI and DOJ going down over the Russia investigation. It is plain nuts.

Also an interesting note is that overnight a hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo has been blasting away. 1M tweets overnight. I guess deplorables don't sleep.

[Holman]

Also an interesting note is that overnight a hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo has been blasting away. 1M tweets overnight. I guess deplorables don't sleep.

Well, the bots are on Moscow time.

[pr0ner]

Hannity used that FISA stuff to open his show last night by telling Mueller that his witch-hunt is over and that it's time to close the doors.

[Holman]

link

[El Guapo]

I wonder what happens if Trump tries to fire Mueller during a shutdown.

[LordMortis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9N5Kun2sJPA

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2015/dec/0 ... r-adviser/

"Felix Sater, boy, I have to even think about it," Trump said, referring questions about Sater to his staff. "I'm not that familiar with him."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/13/trump-d ... -ties.html

In a 2013 deposition, Trump had distanced himself from Sater, saying, "I don't know him well at all," and "if he were sitting in the room right now, I really wouldn't know what he looked like."

No Collusion.

[malchior]

Rolling Stone is all over the insanely obviously and disturbing Russian angle on #Releasethememo.

CNN however seems to have missed that story and is instead focused on the horse race and is not helpfully just spinning this as just the usual partisan bickering.

The real congratulations need to go out to the Russian bots and the right-wing underground for pushing another fringe divisive item forward into the mainstream to chew away at our democracy. It is almost like there is a game plan.

[Isgrimnur]

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson got his orders:

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) on Tuesday shared additional text messages sent by FBI agent Peter Strzok, who was removed from special counsel Robert Mueller’s team last summer over anti-Trump text messages he sent during the presidential race.

During an appearance on a Milwaukee radio show, Johnson read some of the texts exchanged between between Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, and called for the FBI to track down five months worth of missing messages between the two.

The newly released messages were sent two days after Mueller was appointed to investigate Russian election meddling.

Strzok, who was having an affair with Page, told Page in the newly released text messages that he was torn about whether to join Mueller’s team or take his career in another direction. He referred to it as “maybe the most important case of our lives.”
Page, however, said multiple times she didn’t think Strzok should join the investigation.

“You shouldn’t take this on. I promise you, I would tell you if you should,” she wrote.
...
The FBI notified lawmakers late last week that it was unable to preserve text messages exchanged between Strzok and Page.

Messages sent between Dec. 14, 2016, and May 17, 2017, were not maintained because of issues with many of the mobile phones given to agents. The FBI did not provide a specific number of texts that were missing.

[El Guapo]

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson got his orders:

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) on Tuesday shared additional text messages sent by FBI agent Peter Strzok, who was removed from special counsel Robert Mueller’s team last summer over anti-Trump text messages he sent during the presidential race.

During an appearance on a Milwaukee radio show, Johnson read some of the texts exchanged between between Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, and called for the FBI to track down five months worth of missing messages between the two.

The newly released messages were sent two days after Mueller was appointed to investigate Russian election meddling.

Strzok, who was having an affair with Page, told Page in the newly released text messages that he was torn about whether to join Mueller’s team or take his career in another direction. He referred to it as “maybe the most important case of our lives.”
Page, however, said multiple times she didn’t think Strzok should join the investigation.

“You shouldn’t take this on. I promise you, I would tell you if you should,” she wrote.
...
The FBI notified lawmakers late last week that it was unable to preserve text messages exchanged between Strzok and Page.

Messages sent between Dec. 14, 2016, and May 17, 2017, were not maintained because of issues with many of the mobile phones given to agents. The FBI did not provide a specific number of texts that were missing.

You cut off the part before the texts that I assume Johnson was stressing as key:

“You shouldn’t take this on. I promise you, I would tell you if you should,” she wrote.

Strzok later said he feels he has “a sense of unfinished business."

“Now I need to fix and finish it," he wrote.

However, Strzok expressed skepticism about whether the case would uncover any wrongdoing.

“You and I both know the odds are nothing. If I thought it was likely, I’d be there no question. I hesitate in part because of my gut sense and concern there’s no big there there,” Strzok wrote.

Ah Ha! The FBI agent joining the investigation thought, before joining the investigation, that the investigation targets might not be guilty! BUSTED!!!

[LordMortis]

GATO REALASETHEMEMO

[Isgrimnur]

You cut off the part before the texts that I assume Johnson was stressing as key:

Message number 5 will shock you!

[Isgrimnur]

Politico

Joe Biden said Tuesday that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stopped the Obama administration from speaking out about Russian interference in the 2016 campaign by refusing to sign on to a bipartisan statement of condemnation.

That moment, the former Democratic vice president said, made him think “the die had been cast ... this was all about the political play.”

He expressed regret, in hindsight, given the intelligence he says came in after Election Day. "Had we known what we knew three weeks later, we may have done something more,” Biden, a potential 2020 presidential candidate, said.
...
Biden said he and former President Barack Obama worried that without a united front of bipartisanship, speaking out before the election would undermine the legitimacy of the election and American institutions in a way that would play into the Russians’ larger ambitions.
...
McConnell’s office disputed this account, pointing to a letter signed by all four congressional leaders in September 2016 and sent to the president of the National Association of State Election Directors, urging cybersecurity precautions in light of reports of attempted hacking.

[malchior]

Multiple fronts are opening up at once to undermine the Mueller investigation mostly via corruption at the FBI.

Republicans are ramping up talks about FBI 'bias' and misconduct.

Ron Johnson actually went on record pushing a #pizzagate worthy conspiracy theory that members of the Senate were hearing details about a 'secret society' at the FBI.

Edit: As a fun aside you can see Gowdy react to his colleague mentioning #secretsociety live on the air with Fox News.

https://twitter.com/flightcrew/status/9 ... 2197086208

On the #Releasethememo front:

Congressional Dems are pushing Facebook and Twitter to deliver quick reports on #Releasethememo because they suspect Russian interference continues.

Some Internet researcher of unknown quality are claiming that Russian influence operations are behind the spike at the end of last week.

Breitbart is reporting that internal Twitter analysis shows that 'American' accounts are behind the sudden surge. As the TechCrunch noted in their article though:

We should know by now that 1) these companies aren’t particularly good at conducting comprehensive internal analyses on foreign disinformation campaigns and 2) tons of fake news and political propaganda is generated domestically too. Still, the more info on this kind of stuff that Congress can wring out of Facebook and Twitter, the better.

[YellowKing]

No coincidence that the GOP frenzy is coming right at the moment Mueller's investigation is known to be reaching the top of the food chain.

[Holman]

Fox is urging Trump to "declare war" on the FBI, and it's openly pushing the secret-society/shadow-government/Deep-State/Illuminati fantasy of a conspiracy at the very top to undermine the administration. Some GOP pols are lining up to support these claims because they know their version of the party won't survive Trump's fall.

Dangerous times. I hope to God that Mueller moves swiftly.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Dangerous times. I hope to God that Mueller moves swiftly.

Sounds like he is trying to. I assume Trump would be one of the last persons to be interviewed, so maybe it's a sign that things are coming to head sooner rather than later.

[El Guapo]

Fox is urging Trump to "declare war" on the FBI, and it's openly pushing the secret-society/shadow-government/Deep-State/Illuminati fantasy of a conspiracy at the very top to undermine the administration. Some GOP pols are lining up to support these claims because they know their version of the party won't survive Trump's fall.

Dangerous times. I hope to God that Mueller moves swiftly.

Scary shit, no doubt. If congressional republicans are willing to affirmatively throw in their lot with Trump (and almost all of them are), then there aren't that many real limits on Trump's power. I do take some solace from the fact that Richard Burr does appear to be conducting a real investigation (unlike his House counterparts). But ultimately when this all goes down one way or another, we're kind of counting on at least two Republican senators being willing to stand up to protect Mueller (and the country), and I wish I was more confident that that would happen.

I will say that the fact that Mueller's interviews are now focused at the Trump / Sessions / Bannon suggest that the endgame is in sight, one way or another.

[Kraken]

It is a given that Trump will lie, whether intentionally or not. I honestly don't think he can distinguish objective truth from the version in his head. So what happens after Trump lies under oath to the special prosecutor? Boom!

[El Guapo]

It is a given that Trump will lie, whether intentionally or not. I honestly don't think he can distinguish objective truth from the version in his head. So what happens after Trump lies under oath to the special prosecutor? Boom!

I doubt that Mueller would want to move on Trump with just a "lying to the special prosecutor" charge by itself, with no other underlying charge. Republicans would 100% protect Trump from that without hesitation.

[Holman]

It is a given that Trump will lie, whether intentionally or not. I honestly don't think he can distinguish objective truth from the version in his head. So what happens after Trump lies under oath to the special prosecutor? Boom!

That's why Trump's lawyers are calling the interview a "perjury trap." Is this a slam at Mueller or at their own client?

(In the end I suppose it all depends on what the meaning of "is" is...)

[El Guapo]

It is a given that Trump will lie, whether intentionally or not. I honestly don't think he can distinguish objective truth from the version in his head. So what happens after Trump lies under oath to the special prosecutor? Boom!

That's why Trump's lawyers are calling the interview a "perjury trap." Is this a slam at Mueller or at their own client?

(In the end I suppose it all depends on what the meaning of "is" is...)

Mr. Fed has written on Popehat about how aggressive prosecutors / agents can set up perjury / lying to the FBI charges even without underlying substantive violations. So this isn't entirely unfair - no attorney would want their client to sit for an interview like this if they don't have to, especially when it's unclear what Trump has to gain from it.

[Rip]

Fox is urging Trump to "declare war" on the FBI, and it's openly pushing the secret-society/shadow-government/Deep-State/Illuminati fantasy of a conspiracy at the very top to undermine the administration. Some GOP pols are lining up to support these claims because they know their version of the party won't survive Trump's fall.

Dangerous times. I hope to God that Mueller moves swiftly.

Seems like it may actually exist. Should make for some interesting testimony. Would seem to be special counsel worthy.

Republican Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson told Fox News Tuesday that an “informant” confirmed the existence of an anti-Trump “secret society” within the Department of Justice and FBI.

House Oversight Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy raised eyebrows Monday describing how FBI agent Peter Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page described a “secret society” that met off-site at the FBI.

Strzok and Page, both of whom were involved in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into election interference, are being investigated for disparaging texts exchanged about President Trump. The existence of the texts gives further evidence to Republican claims that the Muller probe is biased against Trump.

Strzok was removed from working on the investigation by Mueller before the texts became public.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/01/23/ron-j ... t-society/

[PLW]

Seems like it may actually exist. Should make for some interesting testimony. Would seem to be special counsel worthy.

It's true! And I got an exclusive look at the membership list.

[noxiousdog]

Or maybe he was talking crazy.

[hepcat]

Rip, here's a hint: before you post links to wild stories, wait about an hour to see if they suddenly take it all back.

edit: no need to with Trump though. The man child is mentally incapable of admitting he's wrong. That's what makes him such a good sociopath.

[Sepiche]

You know... it's one thing for the deplorables to watch Fox News all day long and regurgitate it's ignorance to all their Facebook friends, but it swiftly moves to dangerous territory when a Senator, who should know better, starts watching and parroting those lies... especially lies from the fantasy land that Hannity and Dobbs dwell in now.

[Captain Caveman]

Dangerous times. I hope to God that Mueller moves swiftly.

Sounds like he is trying to. I assume Trump would be one of the last persons to be interviewed, so maybe it's a sign that things are coming to head sooner rather than later.

Mueller recently interviewed Sessions and is set to interview Bannon later this week. Arranging an interview now with Trump sounds like it's focused on the obstruction piece, which might be coming to a head now. I imagine the broader aspects of the investigations-- collusion, money laundering, etc.-- are going to keep going for a while.

These of course are not separate issues. Obstruction happens for a reason, and why Trump and others have been so motivated to mislead, derail, and even shut down ongoing investigations suggest that there is much more under the surface than just obstruction of justice.

[El Guapo]

Dangerous times. I hope to God that Mueller moves swiftly.

Sounds like he is trying to. I assume Trump would be one of the last persons to be interviewed, so maybe it's a sign that things are coming to head sooner rather than later.

Mueller recently interviewed Sessions and is set to interview Bannon later this week. Arranging an interview now with Trump sounds like it's focused on the obstruction piece, which might be coming to a head now. I imagine the broader aspects of the investigations-- collusion, money laundering, etc.-- are going to keep going for a while.

These of course are not separate issues. Obstruction happens for a reason, and why Trump and others have been so motivated to mislead, derail, and even shut down ongoing investigations suggest that there is much more under the surface than just obstruction of justice.

It's really hard to imagine Mueller proceeding with obstruction charges (or an obstruction referral) against Trump while still going on other matters. You have to figure as soon as Mueller brings any charges / referrals against Trump, it's Defcon 1 time, for better or worse, so I can't imagine Mueller planning on doing more investigating beyond that point.

[Captain Caveman]

Yeah, for an obstruction charge to have any impact it's going to have to be accompanied by some evidence of what the obstruction was designed to conceal. Mueller must know that absent that, an obstruction charge will be hand-waved away by the GOP as manufactured Deep State nonsense. It likely will be hand-waved away by them regardless but if the evidence is overwhelming and public opinion is swayed than perhaps it will have an impact. Still, Democrats really need to win in 2018 for their to be any potential consequences for Trump (though others like Sessions may be more vulnerable regardless... the GOP will gladly sacrifice anyone to escape blame for Trump)..

[El Guapo]

But I'm still dying to know what Mueller views as his endgame. Indictment against Trump? Referral (with a mammoth report and a list of potential charges) to Congress?

[malchior]

I'd bet money that if the Nunes memo gets declassified then the Schiff one won't despite having the same information.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 6369419264

[El Guapo]

I'm pretty sure that Schiff (or one of his democratic colleagues) could simply read his memo on the floor of the House. Note that Nunes could get his memo out that way as well if he were so inclined.

[Holman]

I'm pretty sure that Schiff (or one of his democratic colleagues) could simply read his memo on the floor of the House. Note that Nunes could get his memo out that way as well if he were so inclined.

Ah, but that would undercut the vague and crucial implication that powerful Deep State forces are somehow preventing the memo's release.

[malchior]

Well it is classified - so theoretically it'd be a crime. Yet nothing matters anymore so who knows how it'd play.

[PLW]

I don't think it's actually classified. They distributed it to every Repubican MoC, and most of them don't have clearance. It's just garbage.