The Global Warming Thread

[Kraken]

And someone will call for us to go back to high-sulfur fuel.

Manchin has some coal to sell you.

[malchior]

Meanwhile at Pravda for oligarchs. The last refuge of the climate change skeptics.

[Zaxxon]

Because we definitely have time left for sensible discussion and debate.

[malchior]

Yeah especially when chuckleheads like this delay change to protect oligarch rents. We've now got the US government and UK governments ACCELERATING oil permitting right now in the midst of obvious impacts. It's pure madness. And on the other side of the balance sheet we have forces *delaying* efforts to green up the economy. For instance, lawsuits to slow down off-shore wind power here in NJ or the endless permitting process blocking access to copper, nickel, manganese, and other metals in Alaska (aka the Ambler access road project).

[GreenGoo]

Because we definitely have time left for sensible discussion and debate.

And they've been so quick to agree to come to the table in the first place, 20 years ago.

If they were truly willing, they would ignore the headlines and create their own about action committees and policy suggestions. But no. "it's not as bad as everyone says. They are trying to manipulate us". Good lord.

"they are trying to manipulate us" might as well be a hypno-psychology trigger for making people unthinking resisters.

Beyond unethical writing, imo.

[Kraken]

Do we have a global warming thread in EBG? I didn't find one. Should we? I'd say >75% of what we post here isn't political unless one believes that the very existence of GW is a hot potato, and I don't see anyone on OO believing that. I think it's silly to still be posting science stories in R&P because science is a liberal plot.

I'll refrain if you think an EBG thread would quickly get political. Just tossing out the idea.

[gilraen]

Do we have a global warming thread in EBG? I didn't find one. Should we? I'd say >75% of what we post here isn't political unless one believes that the very existence of GW is a hot potato, and I don't see anyone on OO believing that. I think it's silly to still be posting science stories in R&P because science is a liberal plot.

I'll refrain if you think an EBG thread would quickly get political. Just tossing out the idea.

Well, since there's the weather thread that started out as a wildfires/hurricanes(?) thread, that's sort of a catch-all.

And also the science thread.

[Blackhawk]

It's perfectly fine to make more threads. Thread consolidation is something that some extremely busy forums obsess with, but we don't have that kind of traffic problem here (we had what, 4 COVID threads split between two forums? And a quick search shows that we have more than 100 Morrowind threads.) I do think that a lot of global warming issues end up going political. While the immediate effects of global warming aren't political, the world's response to it has been 100% political (well, financial, filtered through politics.) Beyond discussing weather phenomenon themselves, any other discussion pretty much has to touch on politics. And the impacts it has on society tends to go there, too.

I wonder how long it will be before the entire equatorial region starts walking toward the poles, creating a humanitarian and immigration crisis the likes of which we've never seen. And the Middle East? I think global warming is going to solve that problem for us in a few decades as whole nations become uninhabitable, possibly during some of our lifetimes.

[Kraken]

I decided to just stick with the weather thread. Climate discussion is still political; the weather that it creates usually isn't. For example, the post that I made today about southern New England's snow cover is just plain factual. One could politicize it, but in and of itself, it's cold hard statistics.

[Isgrimnur]

Judge sides with young activists in first-of-its-kind climate change trial in Montana

A Montana judge on Monday sided with young environmental activists who said state agencies were violating their constitutional right to a clean and healthful environment by permitting fossil fuel development without considering its effect on the climate.

The ruling following a first-of-its- kind trial in the U.S. adds to a small number of legal decisions around the world that have established a government duty to protect citizens from climate change.

District Court Judge Kathy Seeley found the policy the state uses in evaluating requests for fossil fuel permits — which does not allow agencies to evaluate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions — is unconstitutional.

Judge Seeley wrote in the ruling that "Montana's emissions and climate change have been proven to be a substantial factor in causing climate impacts to Montana's environment and harm and injury" to the youth.

However, it's up to the state Legislature to determine how to bring the policy into compliance. That leaves slim chances for immediate change in a fossil fuel-friendly state where Republicans dominate the statehouse.

[Kurth]

As we are virtually trapped inside in 106 degree heat today — in Portland, Oregon — I applaud this verdict.

I think between the horrible Maui fire and the heat wave in continental US and around the world, things are feeling even bleaker than usual.

[hitbyambulance]

things are feeling even bleaker than usual.

i raise you late summer 2020 (early September) with the heatwave, dangerously high levels of wildfire smoke all during full-fledged pandemic

[Smoove_B]

This article is pretty insane:

It has been a grueling summer, with relentless heat breaking multiple records in many places around the world. In fact, June through August was the planet’s hottest documented three-month period, with July ranking as the hottest month ever recorded. A new analysis by the nonprofit organization Climate Central finds that more than 3.8 billion people were exposed to extreme heat that was worsened by human-caused climate change from June through August, and at least 1.5 billion experienced such heat every day of that period. Nearly every person on Earth saw high temperatures that were made at least twice as likely by global warming.

Politics:

The G20 is meeting this weekend in India. At the briefing, Otto said that as long as these countries continue to burn fossil fuels and subsidize the fossil fuel industry, “they kill their populations; they kill the vulnerable populations in the world. We have to stop burning fossil fuels.”

It is clear this summer is a harbinger of things to come. Not every summer will be as hot as this one, but today’s record summer heat will be the average in a few decades. “This is not a problem that’s going to go away,” Pershing says. “We know it’s going to get worse.”

[Kraken]

I read a report a couple of days ago that quoted a climate scientist saying that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is out the window -- this summer was already over that mark -- and 2 degrees is also unrealistic. He says we need all hands on deck to stay under 3 degrees in this century, which will be devastating.

All hands are not on deck. It's a good thing all of us will be safely dead before then.

[GreenGoo]

Amen to that.

Good luck kids! Sorry about the mess.

[Blackhawk]

All hands are not on deck. It's a good thing all of us will be safely dead before then.

Our children won't. Our grandchildren won't.

I can't let myself feel relief at not having to deal with this at its worst when I know that my kids are going to be living with a potential nightmare scenario.

[Zaxxon]

All hands are not on deck. It's a good thing all of us will be safely dead before then.

Our children won't. Our grandchildren won't.

I can't let myself feel relief at not having to deal with this at its worst when I know that my kids are going to be living with a potential nightmare scenario.

+1

[GreenGoo]

Trust me, they'll be happier when our generation is gone to dust.

[LawBeefaroni]

More than 3,000 people are believed to have died in devastating floods across eastern Libya, the country's health minister said Tuesday.

Another 10,000 people are believed to be missing, according to Tamer Ramadan, Libya envoy for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

https://abcnews.go.com/International/20 ... =103096728

Thousands dead and counting.




https://www.reuters.com/world/mediterra ... 023-09-12/

ATHENS/LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Storm Daniel, which wrought devastation across the Mediterranean in the past week, killed 15 people in central Greece where it dumped more rain than previously recorded before sweeping across to Libya where over 2,500 died in a huge flood.

As the storm moved along the North African coast, Egypt's authorities sought to calm its worried citizens by telling them Daniel had finally lost its strength. "No need to panic!" Al Ahram newspaper wrote in its online English-language edition.

But global warming means the region may have to brace in future for increasingly powerful storms of this kind, the Mediterranean's equivalent of a hurricane known as a "medicane".

"There is consistent evidence that the frequency of medicanes decreases with climate warming, but the strongest medicanes become stronger," said Suzanne Gray from the meteorology department at Britain's University of Reading, citing a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

We now have "medicanes". Sigh.

[Blackhawk]

ATHENS/LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Storm Daniel, which wrought devastation across the Mediterranean in the past week

Wasn't Trump supposed to pay it off years ago? He must have gotten confused again.

[GreenGoo]

We now have "medicanes". Sigh.

I prefer "Mediterranicanes".

[Pyperkub]

Our infrastructure is not going to do well with Climate Change. We had Dam issues in CA a year or 2 ago, here's Massachusetts:

No civilian injuries have been reported from the North Attleborough flooding, but a firefighter was injured overnight and was in stable condition, Coleman said Tuesday.

She also said the massive flooding that hit various regions of Massachusetts “severely impacted” two dams, damaged railroad tracks and forced a number of seniors to be evacuated by boats in the middle of the night.

“One of those dams has been shored up already and the other will be shored up by the end of the day,” said Healey, who toured the damage on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, here's the potential cost - Libyan Dams break:

More than 5,000 people are presumed dead and 10,000 missing after heavy rains in northeastern Libya caused two dams to collapse, surging more water into already inundated areas.

[Kraken]

Nothing to worry about, keep going about your business. Antarctic sea-ice at "mind-blowing" low

The sea-ice surrounding Antarctica is well below any previous recorded winter level, satellite data shows, a worrying new benchmark for a region that once seemed resistant to global warming.

"It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

(A graph that I can't copy makes this readily apparent)

"Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds.

While it might just be a weird alignment of natural variability factors, "It's potentially a really alarming sign of Antarctic climate change that hasn't been there for the last 40 years. And it's only just emerging now."

[Kraken]

"We've lost control" -- West Antarctic ice sheets are doomed.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet will continue to increase its rate of melting over the rest of the century, no matter how much we reduce fossil fuel use, according to British Antarctic Survey (BAS) research published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change. A substantial acceleration in ice melting likely cannot now be avoided, which implies that Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise could increase rapidly over the coming decades.

Fortunately, we have 50-100 years for this to play out. The linked article doesn't say how much the oceans will rise, but I know it's measured in meters. Ending carbon emissions can still save the larger and more consequential East Antarctic ice.

[Isgrimnur]

Ending carbon emissions can still save the larger and more consequential East Antarctic ice.

Narrator: But they won't

[Blackhawk]

Ending carbon emissions can still save the larger and more consequential East Antarctic ice.

Narrator: But they won't

The narrator is fine, but the plot has grown predictable.

[Max Peck]

Surprising nobody...

2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record

The year 2023 has been confirmed as the warmest on record, driven by human-caused climate change and boosted by the natural El Niño weather event.

Last year was about 1.48C warmer than the long-term average before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels, the EU's climate service says.

Almost every day since July has seen a new global air temperature high for the time of year, BBC analysis shows.

Sea surface temperatures have also smashed previous highs.

The feel-good version of that headline is 2023 confirmed as world's coolest year for the rest of our lives.

[Eel Snave]

We were supposed to have a world-ending blizzard here, and instead it's rain. They canceled school today in anticipation, and people around here are just like, "Wow! The weatherman lied again!!!! " Meanwhile, I'm screaming internally.

[Blackhawk]

We haven't had a normal winter here in years. Indiana winters used to mean snow - and a fair amount of it. I've only picked up my snow shovel once in the past five years.

[Octavious]

This week was the 1st time I had to shovel in 2 years. When I first bought the house in 2004 (Jesus) we would get like a million snow storms a season. I'd have snow piled so high I could barely see to get out of the driveway.

[Kraken]

The climate denial needle has moved, at least on YouTube.

Instead of rejecting the fact that the Earth is warming, they’re now focusing on skepticism of climate solutions, as well as scientists and activists and altogether the idea that climate change will cause harm, according to a new report from the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a nonprofit organization that researches digital hate speech and misinformation.

The organization’s analysis suggests that the outright dismissal of climate change is no longer as convincing an argument, so climate skeptics are shifting the ideological fight to how seriously humanity must take climate change or what ought to be done about it. The report also claims that the content policies of YouTube’s parent company, Google — which are supposed to block advertising money from content that rejects the scientific consensus about the existence and causes of climate change — are ineffective and ought to be updated.

“A new front has opened up in this battle,” Imran Ahmed, the organization’s CEO, said at a news conference. “They’ve gone from saying climate change isn’t happening to now saying: ‘Hey, climate change is happening, but there is no hope. There are no solutions.’”
...
Kotcher said his research suggests that those interested in action on climate change agree with a set of key facts — that climate change is real, that humans are the primary cause, that scientists agree about those two ideas, that it has negative impacts today, that others care about it and that solutions exist today.

“Calling a truce on one of those key battlefields — just the existence of climate change — it does move the needle slightly farther in what I would argue is the right direction, getting people to have a more fact-based understanding of the issue,” Kotcher said.

[Blackhawk]

those interested in action on climate change agree with a set of key facts — that climate change is real, that humans are the primary cause, that scientists agree about those two ideas, that it has negative impacts today, that others care about it and that solutions exist today.

To be honest, I'm not convinced on the last one beyond the technical level. I mean, solutions absolutely exist, but it's been made abundantly clear that the world will not adopt those solutions, effectively rendering them irrelevant.

[Kraken]

those interested in action on climate change agree with a set of key facts — that climate change is real, that humans are the primary cause, that scientists agree about those two ideas, that it has negative impacts today, that others care about it and that solutions exist today.

To be honest, I'm not convinced on the last one beyond the technical level. I mean, solutions absolutely exist, but it's been made abundantly clear that the world will not adopt those solutions, effectively rendering them irrelevant.

Doesn't negate their existence. Technically.

[Blackhawk]

Sure, just like there is technically a simple solution to Gaza: Israel and Hamas hug it out, promise never to do it again, and rebuild hand-in-hand.

[stessier]

Sure, just like there is technically a simple solution to Gaza: Israel and Hamas hug it out, promise never to do it again, and rebuild hand-in-hand.

With that out of the way, could you tackle world hunger?

[Blackhawk]

Sure, just like there is technically a simple solution to Gaza: Israel and Hamas hug it out, promise never to do it again, and rebuild hand-in-hand.

With that out of the way, could you tackle world hunger?

Sure. The problem with world hunger is no longer about our ability to solve it, it's about the cost vs profitability. All you need to do is take the top 10% of wealth owners in the world, and have them place the good of humanity above their own interests. After that, between relocating surpluses, providing infrastructure, and creating high-yield crops suitable for different environments*, solving world hunger is just a matter of a few years.

*We'd also need to ask to the 'frankenfoods' people to stop interfering.

[stessier]

I was just thinking we should all eat less, but your method would work too.

[Montag]

Sure, just like there is technically a simple solution to Gaza: Israel and Hamas hug it out, promise never to do it again, and rebuild hand-in-hand.

With that out of the way, could you tackle world hunger?

Sure. The problem with world hunger is no longer about our ability to solve it, it's about the cost vs profitability. All you need to do is take the top 10% of wealth owners in the world, and have them place the good of humanity above their own interests. After that, between relocating surpluses, providing infrastructure, and creating high-yield crops suitable for different environments*, solving world hunger is just a matter of a few years.

*We'd also need to ask to the 'frankenfoods' people to stop interfering.

The greater problems are the stupid wars and corrupt governments. Of course this does not prevent the work you stated in the more peaceful countries.

[Isgrimnur]

[Zaxxon]

Oldie, but a goodie.