Octopus Overlords

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:04 pm

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:00 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:52 pm Yes, American is ambiguous at best, but we tend to refer to ourselves as Canadian and American to mean anyone from the United States, but really American could mean anyone from the New World

You should start referring to yourself at "Texans", "Californias", "Quebecois" and so on. It would really help when encountering Americans abroad over here. I mean I could probably abide by Vermonters, but I'd like to freely exercise my anti-American prejudices on West Virginians.

When I was in Europe a lot the people there had oddly specific knowledge about states in the US. I'll never forget when someone was gushing about Bruce Springsteen (since I'm from NJ). They were surprised when I said I was indifferent to him and not a fan. They seemed sad they couldn't share a love of 'The Boss' with a true NJ native.

When I was in Ireland I was trying to explain where in Michigan I was from. They had no idea what Michigan was, let alone Arbor. I asked, "Do you know where Detroit is?" one guy said, "Oh, sure, that's where they're after throwin' women off that bridge!" This was in 1995, prior to any internet to speak of and they knew of a very specific incident that had happened a few days before (in fact that conversation is where I learned about it, albeit with several errors). And of course they thought it was an every day occurrence in Detroit.

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:00 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:52 pm Yes, American is ambiguous at best, but we tend to refer to ourselves as Canadian and American to mean anyone from the United States, but really American could mean anyone from the New World

You should start referring to yourself at "Texans", "Californias", "Quebecois" and so on. It would really help when encountering Americans abroad over here. I mean I could probably abide by Vermonters, but I'd like to freely exercise my anti-American prejudices on West Virginians.

for a number of states it would have to be even more specific (e.g. Western Washington is very different from Eastern Washington. California would have to be at least Northern, Central, Southern and maybe even Inland)

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:00 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:52 pm Yes, American is ambiguous at best, but we tend to refer to ourselves as Canadian and American to mean anyone from the United States, but really American could mean anyone from the New World

You should start referring to yourself at "Texans", "Californias", "Quebecois" and so on. It would really help when encountering Americans abroad over here. I mean I could probably abide by Vermonters, but I'd like to freely exercise my anti-American prejudices on West Virginians.

As a Texan, I'm Canadian when in Europe

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:13 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:04 pm

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:00 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:52 pm Yes, American is ambiguous at best, but we tend to refer to ourselves as Canadian and American to mean anyone from the United States, but really American could mean anyone from the New World

You should start referring to yourself at "Texans", "Californias", "Quebecois" and so on. It would really help when encountering Americans abroad over here. I mean I could probably abide by Vermonters, but I'd like to freely exercise my anti-American prejudices on West Virginians.

When I was in Europe a lot the people there had oddly specific knowledge about states in the US. I'll never forget when someone was gushing about Bruce Springsteen (since I'm from NJ). They were surprised when I said I was indifferent to him and not a fan. They seemed sad they couldn't share a love of 'The Boss' with a true NJ native.

When I was in Ireland I was trying to explain where in Michigan I was from. They had no idea what Michigan was, let alone Arbor. I asked, "Do you know where Detroit is?" one guy said, "Oh, sure, that's where they're after throwin' women off that bridge!" This was in 1995, prior to any internet to speak of and they knew of a very specific incident that had happened a few days before (in fact that conversation is where I learned about it, albeit with several errors). And of course they thought it was an every day occurrence in Detroit.

So, you could have gone full Robocop, as necessary

Putin isn't an insane evil supervillain, no. But Putin is living in a system of his own creation that places him in an echo chamber is the echoiest known to man. That leads to... I guess 'rational delusion' is the best term, brought on by misinformation has, as others have said, given him a distorted view of things and made his decisions detached from reality at times. At the same time, his own political style has made him utterly paranoid to the point that he trusts nobody (probably for good reason.)

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:30 pm Putin isn't an insane evil supervillain, no. But Putin is living in a system of his own creation that places him in an echo chamber is the echoiest known to man. That leads to... I guess 'rational delusion' is the best term, brought on by misinformation has, as others have said, given him a distorted view of things and made his decisions detached from reality at times. At the same time, his own political style has made him utterly paranoid to the point that he trusts nobody (probably for good reason.)

His mistress and their 4 youngest kids are bunkered in Switzerland. He's solo now and pretty much ready for an extended stretch.

Putin is evil. I don't know if he's crazy or not. I do, however, think he has a higher tolerance for the risk of nuclear war, and is willing to push that risk if he thinks that it's advantageous.

But war isn't always predictable. For that matter, miscommunications and accidents have caused nuclear close calls even when there was no war.

And then add in that Putin's judgement does not appear to be the best (whether it's his own judgement or caused by being surrounded by yes men) given the invasion, so that makes me worry about his judgement of what the risks of nuclear war are, including after he raises that risk for fun and profit.

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:12 pm Agreeing to those terms now only postpones the fight a few years. Russia needs to lose this war badly enough to be deterred from coming back for a long time.

Putin needs an Ender to his Stilson.

The last couple of times they were in negotiations there were updates before now saying that the talks were done for the day. I'm choosing to take that I haven't seen a report to that effect to mean that they're still talking and that's a good thing? Still with all the lies from Russia lately it would be hard to accept any agreements made

USA Today

A third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended Monday without any significant breakthroughs, although Ukrainian officials said there were slight shifts on safe passages for civilians attempting to flee to war-torn country.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said without elaboration that “there were some small positive shifts regarding logistics of humanitarian corridors.” He said that consultations will continue on ways to negotiate an end to hostilities.
...
Russia’s top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said he expects that humanitarian corridors in Ukraine will finally start functioning Tuesday. He said no progress has been made on a political settlement, but he voiced hope that the next round could be more productive.

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:30 pm Putin isn't an insane evil supervillain, no. But Putin is living in a system of his own creation that places him in an echo chamber is the echoiest known to man. That leads to... I guess 'rational delusion' is the best term, brought on by misinformation has, as others have said, given him a distorted view of things and made his decisions detached from reality at times. At the same time, his own political style has made him utterly paranoid to the point that he trusts nobody (probably for good reason.)

Putin's behavior honestly doesn't seem delusional to me. The Ukraine invasion has gone all kinds of wrong for him, of course, and was reckless and risky, but that's not really out of character for him.

He's done this kind of thing before, after all. It's not irrational to assume that the West would care little if Ukraine was annexed. Russia already had annexed part of Ukraine to little or no reaction, and had done similar things in other countries over the past fifteen years. This time, the reaction from the West snowballed, and President Zelenski managed to mobilize a fighting spirit that took the Russians by surprise.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:44 pm

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:37 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:27 pm (not American but close enough)

Canadian? Well if I'm "European" you're American, buddy.

Heh, I try not to refer my nationality as American because America is Bi-Continental. However my ignorance abounds. I had no idea Sweden does not consider itself European, again, as I consider that a continental identification. I'm a bit confounded now.

I've mentioned this before, but when I was living in Argentina, the brother in the family I was staying with was constantly chafed about Americanisms. "You guys HAVE to put an AMERICAN FLAG in EVERY MOVIE YOU MAKE?!?!" (at least for a loong time after that, I couldn't stop trying to "spot the flag!" in every movie I watched...and by God, he wasn't wrong!)

But more than that, he would complain about Americans claiming that title as if it were their country name (or possibly even upset that the country was NAMED United States of AMERICA, I can't remember now), as if no one else lived in the Americas that mattered. "You call yourselves Americans, but we are Americans, too!"

I saw his point at the time, but I also thought he was overreacting, as if it was a conscious, pompous and presumptuous decision to call ourselves that - as if to show we were the only Americans that mattered, vs just an easy way of identifying ourselves as "The United States of Americans" or "USAnians" or somesuch. Brevity is a thing!

USofAnians
Usanians
USAmericans
USAs (\'OOH-suz)
USAssians (ooh-SASS-iens)

I kinda like that last one

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:19 pm USA Today

A third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended Monday without any significant breakthroughs, although Ukrainian officials said there were slight shifts on safe passages for civilians attempting to flee to war-torn country.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said without elaboration that “there were some small positive shifts regarding logistics of humanitarian corridors.” He said that consultations will continue on ways to negotiate an end to hostilities.
...
Russia’s top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said he expects that humanitarian corridors in Ukraine will finally start functioning Tuesday. He said no progress has been made on a political settlement, but he voiced hope that the next round could be more productive.

Thanks. I had only been checking the cnn main page as that's where I saw it the last two times.

Honestly, I think the main reason I'm in such a panic is because I can't seem to stop looking, in real time, what's going on. Never did that before...ignorance would be bliss :/

You need to take some time away. Go saddle the moose and wander the permafrost for a few days.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:05 pm And here I think your claim to fame is The Misfits.

You probably don't want to know what Michale Graves was doing this weekend, then.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:47 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:05 pm And here I think your claim to fame is The Misfits.

You probably don't want to know what Michale Graves was doing this weekend, then.

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:34 pm

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:30 pm Putin isn't an insane evil supervillain, no. But Putin is living in a system of his own creation that places him in an echo chamber is the echoiest known to man. That leads to... I guess 'rational delusion' is the best term, brought on by misinformation has, as others have said, given him a distorted view of things and made his decisions detached from reality at times. At the same time, his own political style has made him utterly paranoid to the point that he trusts nobody (probably for good reason.)

Putin's behavior honestly doesn't seem delusional to me. The Ukraine invasion has gone all kinds of wrong for him, of course, and was reckless and risky, but that's not really out of character for him.

He's done this kind of thing before, after all. It's not irrational to assume that the West would care little if Ukraine was annexed. Russia already had annexed part of Ukraine to little or no reaction, and had done similar things in other countries over the past fifteen years. This time, the reaction from the West snowballed, and President Zelenski managed to mobilize a fighting spirit that took the Russians by surprise.

Also this could have worked out for him - his plan wasn't that crazy at least on paper. Like imagine if the decapitation strike had worked - like Russian forces take the Kyev airport (Homstosel or whatever it's called) day 1, airlift in forces, Zelenski is captured / killed, and the Russians round up a few pro-Russian Ukrainian lawmakers and have them sign a capitulation treaty.

In that scenario: (1) while Ukrainians certainly aren't happier with Putin under this scenario, it's not hard to imagine them losing hope and not fighting as bitterly; and (2) a lot of people in the west would be arguing "well, it certainly sucks that Putin did that, but what's done is done", so while there would definitely be *some* sanctions on Russia they probably wouldn't be as dire as what has been imposed.

I think it was last Monday that I gave Zelensky until last Friday before a Putin assassin got to him. You go boi! Extra lives!

Rolling in late to some recent comments:

On renting in AirBnB in Ukraine:

I hate to be a downer here, but I think our money is better spent on direct contributions to aid groups. Most AirBnB hosts are probably on the up and up, but there's a definite possibility of scammers, plus you're filtering your contribution through an individual's real-estate investment rather than taking advantage of the economies of scale that aid groups enjoy.

On Putin and Nukes:

I agree with Lagom that Putin is probably a rational actor and therefore unlikely to destroy the country he claims to love. He's a dictator but not a deluded fanatic, so he's very unlikely to be motivated by some dream of martyrdom and afterlife. In addition, it's still impossible for him to launch nuclear weapons all by himself--he'd require the cooperation of a whole chain of command. (It wouldn't even be the first time that Russian missile officers declined to launch when instructed.)

What Putin fears most is being overthrown and dying under torture (Gaddafi) or being hanged by jeering captors (Saddam). Maybe if he thinks that's imminent he'll attempt something apocalyptic and desperate, but if things get that far then he'll probably be incapable of giving orders anyway.

I know that there are plenty of variables, and I don't intend to sound certain. But in contrast to someone earlier who proposed that nuclear war was 100% certain, I think it's more like 5%. I hope that there are people on both sides working to ensure that we don't roll that d20.

I found myself idly wondering last week, what would happen if any neighboring country just decided to take advantage of the situation to start claiming Russian territory. I don't know who would do this, but I could only imagine that it would be pretty easy pickings since the whole military is engaged elsewhere, and the result would certainly be disillusionment with Putin domestically.

I dont think the Baltics like them. But then again I dont think the Baltics have any ability to act on it.

When the local lunatic is going ape-shit nuts on someone at the bar ... that may be the best time to sneak a sip of his beer, but I can't imagine anyone is thinking he's the best person to be sipping beers off of.

paulbaxter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:28 pm I found myself idly wondering last week, what would happen if any neighboring country just decided to take advantage of the situation to start claiming Russian territory. I don't know who would do this, but I could only imagine that it would be pretty easy pickings since the whole military is engaged elsewhere, and the result would certainly be disillusionment with Putin domestically.

I've seen talk that the Russian military still has vast reserves and that the best units still haven't been committed to Ukraine. It definitely wouldn't be easy pickings for anyone.

Plus the only border countries with militaries that could scratch paint are NATO members or China. I suppose North Korea could make a rush at Vladivostok, but it wouldn't go well.

Daehawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:33 pm I dont think the Baltics like them. But then again I dont think the Baltics have any ability to act on it.

I don't think ANY of their neighbors like them aside from the puppet government in Belarus.

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:39 pm

paulbaxter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:28 pm I found myself idly wondering last week, what would happen if any neighboring country just decided to take advantage of the situation to start claiming Russian territory. I don't know who would do this, but I could only imagine that it would be pretty easy pickings since the whole military is engaged elsewhere, and the result would certainly be disillusionment with Putin domestically.

I've seen talk that the Russian military still has vast reserves and that the best units still haven't been committed to Ukraine. It definitely wouldn't be easy pickings for anyone.

Plus the only border countries with militaries that could scratch paint are NATO members or China. I suppose North Korea could make a rush at Vladivostok, but it wouldn't go well.

It's a great time for cyber attacks though. I bet their banks are ripe. The pivot to Chinese processors and ruble panic probably opens some holes. Definitely lots of social engineering opportunities.


Industrials too with so many partners pulling out and them scrambling for new ones.

To lighten the mood.

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:39 pm I suppose North Korea could make a rush at Vladivostok, but it wouldn't go well.

HQ of the Pacific Fleet? What could possible go wrong?

Daehawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:17 pm To lighten the mood.

That's being passed around as some kind of happy, inspiring video but it's incredibly sad to me. She's in a bomb shelter in the middle of a war zone and stands a relatively high chance of being killed in the coming days or weeks. But we'll send some aid and implement partial sanctions!

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:47 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:05 pm And here I think your claim to fame is The Misfits.

You probably don't want to know what Michale Graves was doing this weekend, then.

The Misfits never had any other singer than Glen Danzig, and then they didn't exist for like 30 years, so no, I don't want to know.

And my axe.

Vladamir Putin has now single handedly paid for my coin collection. If I were to sell it today I would make a tiny profit because of the spike in gold and silver. Thanks pootie poot!

I had to fix the Russian gymnast's outfit

That gif is exceptionally apt.


Also, please note that Ukraine is being unfriendly to Russia.

Max Peck wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:05 pm This Clint Erlich chap seems to be very popular with right-wing Americans, so I can only presume that he knows what he's talking about when it comes to gaslighting. I'm sure his analysis is not influenced by his apparent pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine view of the conflict. After scanning his Twitter feed, it seems like he's working very hard to portray the Ukrainian government as the bad guys.

Yup. I scanned his Twitter feed today. He definitely has picked a side, and it ain't the country that's being invaded. The cherry on top is he's insinuating that US foreign policy has driven Russia to invade Ukraine.

Daehawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:17 pm To lighten the mood.

In what world does that lighten the mood.
Damn.

raydude wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:47 am

Max Peck wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:05 pm This Clint Erlich chap seems to be very popular with right-wing Americans, so I can only presume that he knows what he's talking about when it comes to gaslighting. I'm sure his analysis is not influenced by his apparent pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine view of the conflict. After scanning his Twitter feed, it seems like he's working very hard to portray the Ukrainian government as the bad guys.

Yup. I scanned his Twitter feed today. He definitely has picked a side, and it ain't the country that's being invaded. The cherry on top is he's insinuating that US foreign policy has driven Russia to invade Ukraine.

You will never see me picking Russia's side since I've long been convinced that the old guard Soviets (ie Putin) never truly abandoned their original positions. The Soviet Union was merely rebranded so that they could suck in US aid and trade to get them through the economic crisis in the 1990s, and they have been waiting and trying to figure out a way to re-boot since then.

That being said -- The US did shadow fund the Coop in 2014 to oust an elected pro-Russian, anti-NATO leader in Ukraine. The elections that put him there had international observers that deemed them to be fair. Russia has been planning this war ever since. Therefore, the United States does not have clean hands on this matter.

Right.



Because Pro-Russia == Pro-Democracy.
I think you’ll find the ‘dirt’ on our hands here was actually soap.