[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[stessier]

What is ESPN going to do for the next month? I would guess Disney stock is going to take a beating.

[malchior]

The entire service industry is about to take an beating. Anything entertainment related - movie theaters, concerts, live shows, sporting events. All the hotels and restaurants associated with those events. I don't even think we've begun to understand the economic impact this is going to have.

A friend of mine only does live events. His employer lost live shows. Bad. Then Broadway shut down for a month earlier today. Really bad. Then Live Nation cancelled all tours. Disaster. He expects to be laid off today or tomorrow.

What is ESPN going to do for the next month? I would guess Disney stock is going to take a beating.

Not great. They are pretty diversified though so not existentially terrible.

[LawBeefaroni]

I'm on the board of an organization that funds most of its activities with a summer festival. Total revenue is over $400K and it is at risk (late summer). Not sure how to replace that.

Without this event our education grants to neighborhood schools dry up, our neighborhood beautification and security activities cease, etc. Plus we probably lay off one FTE.

[LawBeefaroni]

What is ESPN going to do for the next month? I would guess Disney stock is going to take a beating.

Not great. They are pretty diversified though so not existentially terrible.

Disney is screwed. Between resorts and ESPN they will lose a lot of revenue.

Their entertainment networks will probably do OK but won't offset the other stuff. I love the company (have always hated the resort exposure) but it's going back to $70-85.

[gameoverman]

Have you read this? Hunker down.

Wow that's depressing. Still, my wife and I are going to a local restaurant this evening; it is small and frankly usually pretty empty anyway when we go. I suspect they and a lot of other restaurants will be out of business soon.

I'm much more concerned about my local supermarket, we need to have food after all.

One reason I have the pessimistic view that it's too late to 'flatten the curve' is because the last couple of weeks people have been cramming together in stores and lines to stock up on toilet paper/etc. What good is a pack of masks going to do you when you had to stand in line for who knows how long with a bunch of other people in order to buy those masks? It's not like the virus didn't start spreading until the starter gun went off after everyone was prepared. Untold numbers of customers and employees were infected and passing it on during all that panic buying, that's my hypothesis. We'll see in the next week or two.

[malchior]

What is ESPN going to do for the next month? I would guess Disney stock is going to take a beating.

Not great. They are pretty diversified though so not existentially terrible.

Disney is screwed. Between resorts and ESPN they will lose a lot of revenue.

Their entertainment networks will probably do OK but won't offset the other stuff. I love the company (have always hated the resort exposure) but it's going back to $70-85.

That could be the right ballpark but they'll survive it which is what I was getting at. Short-term almost every industry is going to take a big whack. We are getting a sharp recession thrown at us now. Some of the demand is being shifted forward to now. Some will be delayed massively but there will be a huge 2-month gap in the GDP. It is going to sting for several years absent some big stimulus package.

[jztemple2]

From what I'm reading from you folks (excellent information in your posts! keep it up) I'm picking today as the tipping point or threshold or whatever you want to call it, where now if your organization hasn't canceled your big concert/sporting event/festival you are insensitive and probably a villain. I predict major announcements from NASCAR, Disney and Universal within a few hours.

Unless I'm wrong of course

[jztemple2]

I predict major announcements from NASCAR, Disney and Universal within a few hours.

Damn I'm good....
IndyCar and NASCAR to hold races without spectators this weekend

[malchior]

I'm seeing this in my amateur sports community. A few orgs cancelled events this weekend and then went on indefinite suspension. Then one person put up a list of all the events getting cancelled. This created peer pressure that has led to a steady stream of events cancelling and then Facebook pressure to fall in line. It is purely panic driven. I'm close to the person who created this list and I warned him he might be causing more harm than not. It created a feedback loop.

I would have greatly preferred a timed suspension. A good example would be how Broadway announced. They established a re-opening date of April 12th. It gives an expectation that the show will go on. I said to my team that we should suspend for *2 weeks* and re-evaluate a week at a time. Create the expectation that this might be short-term and return to normality as quickly as possible. Instead, due to the panic we have teams/events broadly cancelling. IMO this threw reason out the window for immediate action. It isn't necessarily bad as it does potentially help the situation but it may have long-term ramifications. A more reasonable approach could have gotten the same results but not done as much damage. I suppose time will tell. Perhaps this was the right approach and/or maybe there won't be long-term impact.

[malchior]

Shared from a friend's feed on FB:

Sharing in case this is helpful for those who are susceptible to lung inflammation, bronchitis, etc: I worked with health care provider today on preventive approaches to forestalling permanent damage or death if/when I am exposed to coronavirus. She prescribed Advair and Flonase 2x/day for the next 6 months and sinus mist throughout the day to reduce inflammation and clear nasal passages. And, of course, staying home if possible. Hope this helps!

[Lorini]

I'm seeing this in my amateur sports community. A few orgs cancelled events this weekend and then went on indefinite suspension. Then one person put up a list of all the events getting cancelled. This created peer pressure that has led to a steady stream of events cancelling and then Facebook pressure to fall in line. It is purely panic driven. I'm close to the person who created this list and I warned him he might be causing more harm than not. It created a feedback loop.

I would have greatly preferred a timed suspension. A good example would be how Broadway announced. They established a re-opening date of April 12th. It gives an expectation that the show will go on. I said to my team that we should suspend for *2 weeks* and re-evaluate a week at a time. Create the expectation that this might be short-term and return to normality as quickly as possible. Instead, due to the panic we have teams/events broadly cancelling. IMO this threw reason out the window for immediate action. It isn't necessarily bad as it does potentially help the situation but it may have long-term ramifications. A more reasonable approach could have gotten the same results but not done as much damage. I suppose time will tell. Perhaps this was the right approach and/or maybe there won't be long-term impact.

Frankly they have no idea what things are going to be like on April 12th. Why give false hope and a reason for everyone to make plans and then be mad? That's why the NBA and the other leagues are not giving a set date, they simply don't know.

[Defiant]

Also, this is likely the single most depressing thing I've read on Twitter today:

https://twitter.com/EmmaLBriant/status/ ... 9479063553

Well this is a tragic embarrassment. New York authorities say they can only shut schools during coronavirus as an absolute last resort because 114,000 of the school children are homeless & would have nowhere else to go. ⁦@nytimes⁩

What do they do in the summer/breaks?

[LawBeefaroni]

Advair is prescription only so you'd have to get a scrip.



BCBS informed us a few days ago that they'll start paying for telemed services. Idea being to reduce face to face exposure and overcrowded offices.

[LawBeefaroni]

What do they do in the summer/breaks?

Or evenings?

[stessier]

I'm thinking this answer from my governor will not age well.

OLUMBIA, S.C. (WIS) - At the State House on Wednesday, the governor said South Carolina’s economy must be resilient in the face of coronavirus.

There are 10 people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the state, the majority of whom are in Camden, in Kershaw County.

Gov. Henry McMaster said he’s been speaking to the business community, including manufacturers, and urging them to stay open as important contributors to the economy.

The governor also said he’s coordinating with people in the tourism industry.

McMaster named several events across the state that are important for tourism: “the Volvo Car Open in Charleston, the Heritage in Hilton Head and the country music festival in Myrtle Beach, among others." He did not say the events were certain to go on as planned, but he did say the events are important to the economy.

“There remains no cause for public alarm in South Carolina,” McMaster said. "Schools should continue to remain open and provide instruction. State government offices in all 46 counties will stay open. South Carolinians should remain calm and continue their daily normal routines and responsibilities.”

The governor urged people who are sick to stay home. He also said people should wash their hands “all day long” and follow CDC instructions to help not spread the virus.

[Smoove_B]

What do they do in the summer/breaks?

During the Obama administration they had federally funded programs that provided food to children via schools 12 months out of the year. Funding for those programs was revoked or in the process of being revoked currently. I am not sure if NYC was able to float the programs on their own.

[malchior]

I'm seeing this in my amateur sports community. A few orgs cancelled events this weekend and then went on indefinite suspension. Then one person put up a list of all the events getting cancelled. This created peer pressure that has led to a steady stream of events cancelling and then Facebook pressure to fall in line. It is purely panic driven. I'm close to the person who created this list and I warned him he might be causing more harm than not. It created a feedback loop.

I would have greatly preferred a timed suspension. A good example would be how Broadway announced. They established a re-opening date of April 12th. It gives an expectation that the show will go on. I said to my team that we should suspend for *2 weeks* and re-evaluate a week at a time. Create the expectation that this might be short-term and return to normality as quickly as possible. Instead, due to the panic we have teams/events broadly cancelling. IMO this threw reason out the window for immediate action. It isn't necessarily bad as it does potentially help the situation but it may have long-term ramifications. A more reasonable approach could have gotten the same results but not done as much damage. I suppose time will tell. Perhaps this was the right approach and/or maybe there won't be long-term impact.

Frankly they have no idea what things are going to be like on April 12th. Why give false hope and a reason for everyone to make plans and then be mad? That's why the NBA and the other leagues are not giving a set date, they simply don't know.

True but setting an expectation to return to normality is important. The impact downstream from these businesses is immense. Thousands of people are getting laid off due to the Broadway decision alone almost certainly. Sure April 1st may come around and they may have to push again but setting a date allows them to sell tickets, prepare for re-opening, etc. Open ended prevents any planning for restoration.

[Blackhawk]

One way or another, this is going to be a wake-up call to a lot of people.

[pr0ner]

NCAA has cancelled all remaining winter and spring championships, including March Madness.

[jztemple2]

True but setting an expectation to return to normality is important.

Agreed. I tend to be the rather pessimistic*/dark brooding type and I imagine that for a lot of folks, if there is just gloom and doom being posted it will be tough to sustain any positive outlook. I logically know that there is an end to this tunnel but it would be nice to hear some good news.

*Just to lighten the mood, I'll point out that as an optimist my wife is the "glass half full" type, most pessimists would say a "glass half empty" but speaking as a retired engineer, I wonder why they designed the glass to be twice the size it needed to be

[LawBeefaroni]

NCAA has cancelled all remaining winter and spring championships, including March Madness.

Bars will be crushed. Also all that assumed new sportsbook business in states with newly legalized gambling. This will hurt state coffers where that money has already been spent.

[LawBeefaroni]

*Just to lighten the mood, I'll point out that as an optimist my wife is the "glass half full" type, most pessimists would say a "glass half empty" but speaking as a retired engineer, I wonder why they designed the glass to be twice the size it needed to be

I tend to say, "Not enough beer."

[Smoove_B]

Bars will be crushed.

Jersey City mayor imposes curfew on bars:

Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop has declared a 10 p.m. curfew on any business with a liquor license, effective immediately, to reduce the number of large gatherings in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

..

“Logically, one would discuss an uncontrolled environment like a nightclub where you have 1,000 people coming at night,” Fulop said. “So, if we can minimize interaction in that sort of environment where it is difficult to track people, we think it is prudent to take those steps now.”

I've been teaching about this stuff for over a decade. I never thought I'd actually see it happening.

[malchior]

True but setting an expectation to return to normality is important.

Agreed. I tend to be the rather pessimistic*/dark brooding type and I imagine that for a lot of folks, if there is just gloom and doom being posted it will be tough to sustain any positive outlook. I logically know that there is an end to this tunnel but it would be nice to hear some good news.

*Just to lighten the mood, I'll point out that as an optimist my wife is the "glass half full" type, most pessimists would say a "glass half empty" but speaking as a retired engineer, I wonder why they designed the glass to be twice the size it needed to be

It's important for the psychological aspect for sure. I have worked several big incidents where there was existential risk to a company. One example was a well publicized ransomware outbreak that wiped out a manufacturing environment as an example. Even with the entire computing environment wiped out we had a restoration date announced. It wasn't close to accurate but that date drove activity forward. If you just cancel everything, then no one has an expectation for anything to continue. You literally can't plan for "when it's better". If you do, then "when it's better" happens you won't be ready to return to operations.

[pr0ner]

Maryland is closing all schools for 2 weeks starting Monday through the 27th, and gatherings of larger than 250 people are now banned.

[Daehawk]

*Just to lighten the mood, I'll point out that as an optimist my wife is the "glass half full" type, most pessimists would say a "glass half empty" but speaking as a retired engineer, I wonder why they designed the glass to be twice the size it needed to be

Doesn't matter.....either way it will be empty one day..

Added the smiley so it wouldn't sound dark lol.

[Zaxxon]

Can we, eh, can we get Disney to not be so tone-deaf?

"BUT ALL THE DOLLARS" is the only reason they could use to keep going. And a government exception for Disneyland? Crazy.

And Disneyland is closing as of Sunday. Nothing from WDW yet.

[$iljanus]

Our town and the surrounding school districts have now declared that schools are closed for two weeks. Even though there were no sick students, three people with family members in my town’s school system tested positive. Other surrounding towns have people who tested positive. Me thinks the supermarkets are going to be rather swamped now...

I hope this helps to get ahead of things.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Disneyland Closes Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

Disney has temporarily closed its California theme park — starting March 14 through the end of the month — because of the coronavirus outbreak. The move to shutter its park comes as the novel virus continues to rapidly spread across the country. Over the past week it has officially become a pandemic, with cases increasing in the U.S., Asia and across Europe.

Disneyland Resort hotels will remain open until March 16 so guests can make necessary travel accommodations.

It’s only the fourth time in history that Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif., has fully suspended operations. The other instances were Sept. 11 attacks, the morning after JFK’s assassination and the Northridge earthquake.

[RMC]

Our town and the surrounding school districts have now declared that schools are closed for two weeks. Even though there were no sick students, three people with family members in my town’s school system tested positive. Other surrounding towns have people who tested positive. Me thinks the supermarkets are going to be rather swamped now...

I hope this helps to get ahead of things.

Three weeks here in Ohio, the entire state is shutting down schools, k-12 for three weeks by order of the Governor.

[hentzau]

And they've just closed a second area of our campus because of exposure. Not someone who tested positive, but someone in contact with someone who tested positive. Think I'll be working from home on Monday.

[malchior]

Disneyland Closes Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

Disney has temporarily closed its California theme park — starting March 14 through the end of the month — because of the coronavirus outbreak. The move to shutter its park comes as the novel virus continues to rapidly spread across the country. Over the past week it has officially become a pandemic, with cases increasing in the U.S., Asia and across Europe.

Disneyland Resort hotels will remain open until March 16 so guests can make necessary travel accommodations.

It’s only the fourth time in history that Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif., has fully suspended operations. The other instances were Sept. 11 attacks, the morning after JFK’s assassination and the Northridge earthquake.

FWIW I just noticed the timing here matches up with Gov. Newsom's advisory. I expect them to track the State's guidance until they get the all clear.

[Kraken]

I haven't left the house since Monday, and don't expect to go anywhere until next Monday.

This is a completely normal week for me. Isolating for a couple of weeks isn't a challenge. It's routine, save for the missed trip to the grocery store.

"Social isolation" is normal for me, too. I do my packy run on Saturday, groceries on Sunday, and Wife and I go out to dinner one night each week. Apart from that, I'm voluntarily housebound.

Wife just got word that everybody is to work at home until further notice. There goes my solitude. But we both have plenty of work to keep us busy all day, so we won't be in each other's hair all that much.

[Zaxxon]

Disneyland Closes Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

Disney has temporarily closed its California theme park — starting March 14 through the end of the month — because of the coronavirus outbreak. The move to shutter its park comes as the novel virus continues to rapidly spread across the country. Over the past week it has officially become a pandemic, with cases increasing in the U.S., Asia and across Europe.

Disneyland Resort hotels will remain open until March 16 so guests can make necessary travel accommodations.

It’s only the fourth time in history that Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif., has fully suspended operations. The other instances were Sept. 11 attacks, the morning after JFK’s assassination and the Northridge earthquake.

FWIW I just noticed the timing here matches up with Gov. Newsom's advisory. I expect them to track the State's guidance until they get the all clear.

Also of note: Disney will pay all employees Cast Members for the duration of the closure.

[Daehawk]

It’s only the fourth time in history that Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif., has fully suspended operations. The other instances were Sept. 11 attacks, the morning after JFK’s assassination and the Northridge earthquake.

And that time the Griswalds showed up. Oh come on you know that was Disneyland.

[Kasey Chang]

San Jose firefighters may have a short-term staffing problem... 4 tested positive, and 77 more are in self-quarantine.

[Lorini]

I think it makes way more sense to say we'll revisit the situation every week or two weeks or whatever and give you an update. That seems more honest given the situation while still reassuring you that they care about whatever it is they've postponed and understand that it's important to you to know what's going on. In a week or two weeks they'll know more about a final date.

In ransomware, there's usually a precedent on how to deal with it, here there's no precedent that is relevant to this particular problem. The previous outbreaks in the last few years have been much milder, and the Spanish flu pandemic, medicine was in a much different place, they didn't even know about viruses then.

[Isgrimnur]

In ransomware, there's usually a precedent on how to deal with it, here there's no precedent that is relevant to this particular problem. The previous outbreaks in the last few years have been much milder, and the Spanish flu pandemic, medicine was in a much different place, they didn't even know about viruses then.

Wiki

The first evidence of the existence of viruses came from experiments with filters that had pores small enough to retain bacteria. In 1892, Dmitry Ivanovsky used one of these filters to show that sap from a diseased tobacco plant remained infectious to healthy tobacco plants despite having been filtered. Martinus Beijerinck called the filtered, infectious substance a "virus" and this discovery is considered to be the beginning of virology.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Hackers are spreading malware through coronavirus maps

The ongoing coronavirus outbreak has disrupted business operations across the globe but cybercriminals are showing no signs of slowing down as they attempt to capitalize on people's fears surrounding the virus.

Back in January, hackers used the coronavirus to launch email campaigns that infected users with malware and now they've begun to use coronavirus maps to do so as well.

Many organizations including John Hopkins University have created dashboards to keep track of the spread of the coronavirus and many people rely on these dashboards to stay up to date with the latest infection numbers.

However, security researcher at Reason Labs, Shai Alfasi has discovered that hackers are now creating fake versions of these dashboards to steal information including user names, passwords, credit card numbers and other data stored in users' browsers.

Unlike legitimate coronavirus dashboards, these fake websites prompt users to download an application to help them stay updated on the situation. This application doesn't even need to be installed to infect a user's computer with malware. As of now, the malware only affects Windows devices but Alfasi expects that hackers will find a way to develop a new version that can infect other operating systems as well.

Fake coronavirus maps
In a blog post detailing his findings, Alfasi explained that these fake coronavirus maps are using malicious software called AZORult to infect users' machines, saying:

“The new malware activates a strain of malicious software known as AZORult. AZORult is an information stealer and was first discovered in 2016. It is used to steal browsing history, cookies, ID/passwords, cryptocurrency and more. It can also download additional malware onto infected machines. AZORult is commonly sold on Russian underground forums for the purpose of collecting sensitive data from an infected computer.”

[dbt1949]

Well, the state of Arkansas has decided to go all in on the threat of the virus.
Got another call from the VA on my status.