Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[YellowKing]

Still think we're overthinking this. Unless this thing comes down to the wire and there's some sliver of realistic expectation that 1 or 2 states could decide this, Trump has no case and even his own party is going to be ready to move on. All of these nightmare scenarios depend on this Kool-Aid drinking army of Trump loyalists that will risk their own careers to engage in his shenanigans. I just don't think that's reality.

[malchior]

Still think we're overthinking this. Unless this thing comes down to the wire and there's some sliver of realistic expectation that 1 or 2 states could decide this, Trump has no case and even his own party is going to be ready to move on. All of these nightmare scenarios depend on this Kool-Aid drinking army of Trump loyalists that will risk their own careers to engage in his shenanigans. I just don't think that's reality.

Depending on the state they aren't risking their careers by supporting Trump - even unsuccessfully. It's quite the opposite. Support him or risk being primaried. Though I generally agree that this is unlikely unless it's very tight.

[Jaymann]

Countdown to election:

7 Days

Apparently Trump is focused on suburban housewives as a voting bloc.

Biden holds a lead of 59 percent to 36 percent among women likely to vote

[Carpet_pissr]

Still think we're overthinking this. Unless this thing comes down to the wire and there's some sliver of realistic expectation that 1 or 2 states could decide this, Trump has no case and even his own party is going to be ready to move on. All of these nightmare scenarios depend on this Kool-Aid drinking army of Trump loyalists that will risk their own careers to engage in his shenanigans. I just don't think that's reality.

Agree. Even Putin seems to be pivoting toward Biden (although he may also just be doing that to hedge). Much easier for his nefarious goals, to have a reasonable relationship with Biden, vs trying to literally change the election results for Trump. The man is not stupid (Putin, not Trump).

[YellowKing]

I confess part of my reluctance to play into the "Trump is going to find a way to steal this thing" narrative is that I refuse to be suckered by Trump's con game. If you think about it, he's practiced this con his entire life. The Teflon Don. He can get away with anything. He's a comeback kid. He's always got something up his sleeve, etc.

Sure, he actually pulled it off in 2016, with a lot of factors breaking his way. But that doesn't make him a god. It makes him lucky one time in his life.

Unfortunately, he's managed to convince Democrats, the media, and just about everyone except the pollsters that he can somehow win the lottery twice despite all indications to the contrary.

And yes I know he has gotten away with violating norms that other people would not have. And that's a strong argument in the favor of "Well if he can get away with that, then he can get away with this." But I think we're looking at this too myopically because we're in the moment. The fact is he really hasn't gotten away with it...yet. The American people curtailed him in 2018 by handing the House to the Democrats, and they very well may give him the boot in a few days. If they do, then the system held and Trump failed.

If I'm wrong, then I'll admit he's the three-dimensional chess player.

[Octavious]

I'm just worried that there's no limits to what he will try and there are WAY too many people that are going along with it. If it's remotely close I'm terrified of what shit they pull and likely get away with. I just can't wait for this to be over.

The other thing that I'm VERY worried about is what the Trump supporters do if he loses. His base is fanatical about him and I 100% promise there will be at least some violence from the results as you know he will just egg them on. There's a guy down the street from my work who has like 8 million Trump signs. When have you ever seen that kind of rabid fan base for any president? They won't just toss up their hands in the air and move on.

[Little Raven]

Trump barely, BARELY managed to eek out a win in 2016. It's really difficult to properly conceptualize just how narrow that win actually was. In the 4 years that he's held office, he has done nothing to broaden his appeal, and he has done just about everything humanly possibly to actively repulse large segments of the voting population. He's overseen the largest economic collapse since the Great Depression, and has actively damaged our nation's ability to combat a virus that has killed thousand and thousands of Americans, most of whom fall into his most loyal demographics. On top of that, Americans love the myth of "the political outsider" coming into Washington and shaking things up, and Trump absolutely played that story to the max in 2016. But we've all had 4 years of painful lessons in what happens when you confuse myths for reality.

I don't think he can do it again. Admittedly, I didn't think he could do it the first time, but I really, REALLY don't think he can do it now.

[malchior]

If I'm wrong, then I'll admit he's the three-dimensional chess player.

The thing is he doesn't have to be a 3D chess master to do amazing amounts of damage. He isn't that master chess player. He is a know nothing moron. The worst leader of a major nation in modern history. Negligent murderer of six figures of his countrymen. He can't even get out of his own way anymore. Yet he still has a not insignificant chance of prevailing. We have a system that has become dangerously unbalanced.

And the trouble we have with Trump isn't that he will mastermind his way into stealing an election. The very real problem we face is that by definition whatever tumbles out of his idiot mouth or what he tweets out is the de facto policy of the United States until January 20, 2021. And there is an army of politicos, lawyers, and other people who will scramble to make it so. He has 30-40% of the people locked up in a personality cult. So it is definitely time to worry. Let's talk absolute worst case here imaginable as a thought experiment. Trump decides on his last day to launch a nuke at Tehran. Nothing stops him. Nothing at all. He can do that. He can use temporary war powers to do other things as well. I'm not expecting this to happen but we have to some clarity on what's possible. And it is clear that it is more than we can imagine and there is a very good chance this won't go like we expect.

Edit with relevant example:

You might think. Sure he said that before but keep in mind it isn't just his campaign hearing that message. It's not an order but the indication is that the policy of the United States government is that an extended vote count is inappropriate. That can be interpreted and acted in many or few ways. It is however a unique risk we've never faced. Uncertainty is sky high.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1321142155721793539

[Archinerd]

I'm less worried about Trump winning, I'm more worried about what he's going to do when he loses.

[Yojimbo]

I see that the Economist has reports a 93% chance of Biden winning PA (2020) to get to that 95% overall number. It looks to me like Oct 27, 2016 538 had Hillary winning PA at a 86.4% (I didn't see exactly what the Economist said on this date then).

So, it really looks like victory in PA would VERY hard for Trump - unless there is all kinds of messing with numbers going on (like voters being shy, herding by pollsters, etc.).

I'm not on board with the conspiracy theories that Trump won't leave office - with his ego I think he will be seriously hurt if we don't "love him" enough to confirm his incumbency (its the exception for an incumbent President to lose). He may quit early in a rage like an office worker given 30 days redundancy notice leaving us to cover it with Pence or Pelosi.

Now get ready for the theories that Biden's frequent subconjunctival hemorrhages are instead proof that he's part of the lizard ruling class (overheard last week at the market). People would have a lot more sympathy if they spent any time on serious blood thinners - only slightly worse, in my book, than what they are designed to prevent.

[Isgrimnur]

Wake me up when November ends.

[Defiant]

Wake me up when 2020 ends.

FTFY

[Archinerd]

Wake me up when 2020 ends.

FTFY

First I need to be able to fall asleep.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

There are two main differences between 2016 and 2020: 1) Biden has much more support than Clinton and that support is relatively stable, and 2) Trump has the power of the government at his disposal. The election is going to turn on how those two things play out. This most likely scenario in my mind is that, if Trump wins, it will not be because he lucked into it (which definitely happened in 2016), but because he can leverage the courts to rule in his favor.

[Yojimbo]

...because he lucked into it (which definitely happened in 2016), but because he can leverage the courts to rule in his favor.

It was a lot like luck for Trump in 2016. What I saw was the media prop him up until the end because they knew that they had a coup de grâce in the Billy Bush tape. Its just that that didn't stick to him because of the thick film of spray tan (note: I have never touched President Trump to verify this).

He does have the power of the government to some extent. However, huge swaths of the executive branch are still populated by people who are very anti-Trump and I don't think he has any ability to do anything remotely covert or "clean".

For example: Hunter's laptop contained emails that have been harvested and cataloged by at least 2 different intelligence tools (who had those messages stored as they left the IMAP server (does anyone use POP3 anymore?)). And yet, Trump allies had to get a hold of the actual laptop and get it to a newspaper to get the message out? This is not a state level operation in 2020 - this looks more like a whistle blower action from 1989 to me.

I hope nothing ends up in the courts like you suggest, If that is the case wake me up in 2022.

[Carpet_pissr]

Trump has the power of the government at his disposal. The election is going to turn on how those two things play out. This most likely scenario in my mind is that, if Trump wins, it will not be because he lucked into it (which definitely happened in 2016), but because he can leverage the courts to rule in his favor.

This is our concern, Dude.

It's not even just the power of the executive (referencing Yojimbo's point) and maybe/probably now the SC. It's state governors who apparently worship him, it's Senators and AG's, apparently The Police (not the band) and Reps and everything in between. His support may be narrow, but it's also in VERY powerful places. Places that can create and effect change when things don't shake out the way they like.

My only hope wrt that specific nightmare, is that a LOT of his supporters (in positions of power) are seemingly supporting him (according to Michael Steele and others like him) because they are afraid of the bully. Nasty tweets. Name calling. Or they are just riding the Trumpmania wave. If they see him stumble, HOPEFULLY they will take that opportunity to escape the madness that they have participated in. If fear of public shaming is really a factor for these people, hopefully they are tired of living in cowardice and fear for four years, and will dump him if they have the (safe) opportunity.

That's where we, the people come in. We need to give the enablers that opportunity, show them the way, and that the way is no longer with Trump (find another host, you cowardly sacks of shit).

OR, they actually think he's awesome, and we're all fucked. One of those two things.

[noxiousdog]

Trump has the power of the government at his disposal. The election is going to turn on how those two things play out. This most likely scenario in my mind is that, if Trump wins, it will not be because he lucked into it (which definitely happened in 2016), but because he can leverage the courts to rule in his favor.

This is our concern, Dude.

It's not even just the power of the executive (referencing Yojimbo's point) and maybe/probably now the SC. It's state governors who apparently worship him, it's Senators and AG's, apparently The Police (not the band) and Reps and everything in between. His support may be narrow, but it's also in VERY powerful places. Places that can create and effect change when things don't shake out the way they like.

My only hope wrt that specific nightmare, is that a LOT of his supporters (in positions of power) are seemingly supporting him (according to Michael Steele and others like him) because they are afraid of the bully. Nasty tweets. Name calling. Or they are just riding the Trumpmania wave. If they see him stumble, HOPEFULLY they will take that opportunity to escape the madness that they have participated in. If fear of public shaming is really a factor for these people, hopefully they are tired of living in cowardice and fear for four years, and will dump him if they have the (safe) opportunity.

That's where we, the people come in. We need to give the enablers that opportunity, show them the way, and that the way is no longer with Trump (find another host, you cowardly sacks of shit).

OR, they actually think he's awesome, and we're all fucked. One of those two things.

Some of it is for show and will rapidly deteriorate. I've been getting a kick out of our local State Representative Gary Gates. While he shows Republican on his website, it's nowhere to be found in his in the wild marketing. He clearly doesn't want to be identified with the party even though he's very ideologically conservative.

[LordMortis]

I'm just worried that there's no limits to what he will try and there are WAY too many people that are going along with it.

That's how he's lived his life, ru(i)n his businesses, and he's never paid the price. And his support adore him for it. It's somehow the model of being a good business person to legally ruin everything, leave others holding the bag, and walk out none the worse. They want government run like business. So their unspoken conclusion is they want the lawmakers, interpreters, and enforcers to be the business people who live lives bending the law to their will at the expense of others. I continue to be amazed at volume of support and the logical connections that just can't be seen by it. I'm not trying to be over the top.

Ask the faithful

What do you think of Trump's bankruptcy's and tax games? Do you doubt these truth of these things?
What is Trump's strength as the executive of the highest office of the land?

How do these two things combine?...

[Zaxxon]

We have now crossed 50% of 2016's vote count. With a full week to go. Yegads.

TX is at 86%, FL/GA/AZ over 2/3.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/Yair_Rosenberg/stat ... 5888522240

[malchior]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/s ... 9778779136

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/s ... 4220809217

[Zaxxon]

Popehat had a good tweet on that...

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1321 ... 24577?s=20

[Scraper]

The rural Ohio county that I live in has passed the 50% mark on early voting when compared to total number of voters from the 2018 November election. That's actually surprising to me because there is still a healthy dose of Covid denial here (We're still under 200 total confirmed cases) and the Republican to Democrat break down is probably close to 60%R to 30%D with about 10% truly independent.

[Paingod]

Soooo .... Elderly people are dying to line up so Trump can kill them with COVID?

[LawBeefaroni]

Soooo .... Elderly people are dying to line up so Trump can kill them with COVID?

Like everything in the administration, these campaign rallies are pure amateur hour. Half assed planning, totally unprofessional. And people are harmed.

[Holman]

Soooo .... Elderly people are dying to line up so Trump can kill them with COVID?

Like everything in the administration, these campaign rallies are pure amateur hour. Half assed planning, totally unprofessional. And people are harmed.

There was at least one other rally where the pick-up buses failed to arrive because the organizer's credit card bounced. It just didn't make news because the weather wasn't hazardous.

[Carpet_pissr]

I keep seeing stats about the massive numbers of voters relative to prior years. Maybe because I have bias to the left, I also get the sense that the sources making these claims assume that those huge crowds (certainly most) are voting D.

Massive early voting crowds could be highly motivated voters for both parties, no?

I catch myself making that same assumption, probably out of hope for our country. I prefer accuracy, though, especially with something this important.

[Zaxxon]

I keep seeing stats about the massive numbers of voters relative to prior years. Maybe because I have bias to the left, I also get the sense that the sources making these claims assume that those huge crowds (certainly most) are voting D.

Massive early voting crowds could be highly motivated voters for both parties, no?

I catch myself making that same assumption, probably out of hope for our country. I prefer accuracy, though, especially with something this important.

It's not an assumption (at least not an assumption that the bulk of the early voters are registered D--could be voting the other way, of course). The data is incomplete but there's a lot of it, and the total numbers thus far among the 35.5 million early votes with party registration data show a 47.7% D to 29.3% R split.

[Little Raven]

Maybe because I have bias to the left, I also get the sense that the sources making these claims assume that those huge crowds (certainly most) are voting D.

Historically, massive turnout is just good for Democrats generally. The Democratic party is larger than the Republican party and has been for decades, but Democrats vote far less reliably. So whenever we see massive crowds, the talking heads assume Democrats are going to do well, and there's plenty of data to back that assumption up.

But it's also true that Trump breaks all rules, and we won't know for sure until the 3rd.

[Carpet_pissr]

we won't know for sure until the 3rd.

...of...?
Only half jk.

[Little Raven]

...of...?
Only half jk.

Oh we'll know on the 3rd whether or not the historic pattern has held. We're seeing truly unprecedented numbers of early voters. If there's even the slightest doubt about who has won on the night of the 3rd, then we'll know that once again Trump has defied all the odds.

[LawBeefaroni]

If we hit 80% before Nov 3, probably don't even have to go to the polls at all. It's in the bag!

[Zaxxon]

If we hit 80% before Nov 3, probably don't even have to go to the polls at all. It's in the bag!

[Little Raven]

If we hit 80% before Nov 3, probably don't even have to go to the polls at all. It's in the bag!

[Jaymann]

Countdown to election:

6 Days

Covid19 cases continue to surge. Trump going through the motions as he tumbles in the polls and his supporters suffer.

[Paingod]

Covid19 cases continue to surge. Trump going through the motions as he tumbles in the polls and his supporters suffer.

You know what would help his numbers? A few more superspreader events. He needs to get the message out there.

[NickAragua]

Covid19 cases continue to surge. Trump going through the motions as he tumbles in the polls and his supporters suffer.

You know what would help his numbers? A few more superspreader events. He needs to get the message out there.

While he's at it, he ought to help his supporters toughen up some more by leaving them without a ride home after the rally ends.

[pr0ner]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffFlake/st ... 9992683521

[LawBeefaroni]

Good points but would it kill him to use question marks?

[Zarathud]

While he's at it, he ought to help his supporters toughen up some more by leaving them without a ride home after the rally ends.

Metaphor for Trump’s presidency and business strategy — if it doesn’t work out, tough on you. I take no responsibility.