The Global Warming Thread

[Kraken]

Prepare for a "gray swan" climate

the way to think about climate change now is through two interlinked concepts. The first is nonlinearity, the idea that change will happen by factors of multiplication, rather than addition. The second is the idea of “gray swan” events, which are both predictable and unprecedented. Together, these two ideas explain how we will face a rush of extremes, all scientifically imaginable but utterly new to human experience.

Our climate world is now one of nonlinear relationships—which means we are now living in a time of accelerating change. Tiffany Shaw, a climate physicist at the University of Chicago, has studied how upper-level jet-stream winds will accelerate under climate change; each degree Celsius of warming will increase the speed of these winds by 2 percent, likely leading to a set of unpleasant impacts, including more turbulence on flights and more accelerated storm systems. Plus, the fastest winds will speed up more than 2.5 times faster than the average wind will. Slow winds won’t change nearly as much. In other words, the fastest winds will get faster, fastest.

Again and again, climate scientists are discovering these nonlinear relationships in the climate system. They recently found one for snow: Once warming hits a certain threshold, the snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere is set to diminish in nonlinear fashion with each additional degree of warming, disappearing faster and faster. Meanwhile, the already moist air in the tropics can hold more moisture because of warmer temperatures, and scientists have found that this relationship also responds nonlinearly to warming: With each additional degree of heat, wet places will get wetter in an accelerating fashion, leading to torrential downpours and flooding. In an offense to sensitive ears everywhere, scientists call this the “moist-gets-moister” response.
...
Among these new extremes will be gray-swan events. These are not like black-swan events, which Shaw described as completely “unpredictable or unforeseeable.” Instead, scientists will start to observe things that they can foresee based on physics, but that haven’t appeared in the historical record before. “As we reflect, as climate scientists, on events that we see emerging, there are these record-shattering, extreme events,” she said. “Events like that truly push the boundaries of what our models are capable of.”

More examples and projections follow. They are not encouraging.

[Daehawk]

Sounds like a movie.

[Smoove_B]

More examples and projections follow. They are not encouraging.

Yikes. I think I'm most curious (is that the right word?) to see if the wildfire situation in Canada is a problem for the air quality in the NE again this year, because it feels like maybe it's going to be a regular thing now.

[Pyperkub]

Suing your shareholders for trying to make the company sustainable is certainly an interesting thing to do...

ExxonMobil faces dozens of lawsuits from states and localities alleging the company lied for decades about its role in climate change and the dangers of burning fossil fuels. But now, ExxonMobil is going on the offensive with a lawsuit targeting investors who want the company to slash pollution that's raising global temperatures.

[Kraken]

More examples and projections follow. They are not encouraging.

Yikes. I think I'm most curious (is that the right word?) to see if the wildfire situation in Canada is a problem for the air quality in the NE again this year, because it feels like maybe it's going to be a regular thing now.

Zombie fires

The remnants of the most extraordinary wildfire season in recent Canadian history are still smoldering on a scale that experts say is unprecedented. The warm and dry winter, particularly in western Canada, has left more than 150 fires burning across British Columbia and Alberta, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center.

While it’s common that such hot spots — known as holdover or zombie fires — can smoke and smolder through the cold months, this amount of them is not.

“We’ve seen this before but never at this scale,” said Michael Flannigan, a wildfire expert and professor at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia. “I’ve been watching fire in Canada and abroad since the late ’70s. I’ve never seen anything like this.”

These winter fires burn underground, often consuming peat — thick layers of compacted organic matter, including sphagnum moss. Plumes of smoke seep out, even from beneath snowfields. The vast majority of them are deemed “under control” by Canadian authorities, but experts worry that the fires could spread when spring comes and winds pick up.

“The perimeters are thousands and thousands of kilometers long. [Firefighters] haven’t gone and put all these hot spots out,” Flannigan said. “These fires can grow.”

...

Further warm and dry conditions brought on by the El Niño weather pattern have heightened fears about what’s to come this summer.

Federal Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan warned this week that Canadians needed to be “prepared for the worst.”

“Early reporting suggests that this year’s wildfire season could be worse than the last,” Sajjan told reporters in Ottawa.

The Alberta government has already declared that fire season has started — before the traditional beginning in March — and the province’s forestry and parks minister is asking for funding to hire an additional 100 firefighters.

“The dice are loaded for a very active spring,” Flannigan said.

[Punisher]

I was just thinking we should all eat less, but your method would work too.

Actually if you think about it, global warming will eventually solve all our problems...

[Punisher]

We were supposed to have a world-ending blizzard here, and instead it's rain. They canceled school today in anticipation, and people around here are just like, "Wow! The weatherman lied again!!!! " Meanwhile, I'm screaming internally.

Does that really have anything to do with global warming though?
My understanding is that it's a relatively slow process, so you might have less snow then normal year to year but it wouldn't affect the actual day to day forecasts.
We've had a few of those near me where doom was predicted and nothing happened.
While I realize it's not an exact science i did think weather prediction technology has advanced enough to at least get real close.

[LordMortis]

Suing your shareholders for trying to make the company sustainable is certainly an interesting thing to do...

ExxonMobil faces dozens of lawsuits from states and localities alleging the company lied for decades about its role in climate change and the dangers of burning fossil fuels. But now, ExxonMobil is going on the offensive with a lawsuit targeting investors who want the company to slash pollution that's raising global temperatures.

Chamber of Commerce is now getting in on the action along with they usual suspects.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-chambe ... 024-03-14/

March 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said on Thursday it has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's new rules that require public companies to report climate-related risks.
The business lobbying group joins a list of entities challenging the securities regulator over rules aimed to standardize climate-related company disclosures about greenhouse gas emissions, weather-related risks and how they are preparing for the transition to a low-carbon economy.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/repub ... sure-rules

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey on Wednesday announced that a coalition of Republican leaders in 10 states is suing to block the SEC’s just-released rules requiring companies to disclose their carbon emissions.

Morrisey (R) said he and the Georgia attorney general filed a petition for review in the US Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit with support from Alabama, Alaska, New Hampshire, Indiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Wyoming and Virginia. Morrisey called the SEC’s rules “a back door move to undermine the energy industry.”

I also see the price of gas went up 50 cents a gallon this week. It must be election season. Ironically, every time they use energy as a leveraging chip, it helps the cause of Nuclear, renewables, and energy consumption that is less reliant on fossil fuels. Hopefully, one day it will start in on plastics.

[Isgrimnur]

While I realize it's not an exact science i did think weather prediction technology has advanced enough to at least get real close.

Weather prediction is based on observations and modeling of past events. If the events are new, there are no models that can accurately predict them.

[Punisher]

While I realize it's not an exact science i did think weather prediction technology has advanced enough to at least get real close.

Weather prediction is based on observations and modeling of past events. If the events are new, there are no models that can accurately predict them.

Hmm.
Don't think I realized that. I really thought it was more strict science like sensors and radars snd such and less interpretive dance.

[Isgrimnur]

In this case, past performance is a good guide to future events. We’re writing ourselves out of past performances.

[Blackhawk]

While I realize it's not an exact science i did think weather prediction technology has advanced enough to at least get real close.

Weather prediction is based on observations and modeling of past events. If the events are new, there are no models that can accurately predict them.

Hmm.
Don't think I realized that. I really thought it was more strict science like sensors and radars snd such and less interpretive dance.

It is a data driven science, yes, but the predictive aspect involves a lot of matching current data to existing patterns. Barometer does this, temperature does that, and in 274 out of the last 300 times it was like that, there was [weather] that resulted. Now some of the traditional factors are behaving differently, and there are new factors in play, and things changing that were constants before. I don't know how much of a factor it is, but as a top-of-my-head example, the salinity of seawater is changing. That wasn't really much of an issue before, but it can alter the dynamics of the oceans themselves, including the temperature. Is that an issue? Monitor it for the next decade and compare the salinity changes to the way the weather behaves. Until then, there is a little more of a chaos factor in the predictions. Now add in another hundred factors like that...

[pr0ner]

I also see the price of gas went up 50 cents a gallon this week. It must be election season. Ironically, every time they use energy as a leveraging chip, it helps the cause of Nuclear, renewables, and energy consumption that is less reliant on fossil fuels. Hopefully, one day it will start in on plastics.

Oh, come on. The price of gas is up, but it's not due to it being election season.

TLDR: It's mostly due to refineries shutting down for maintenance to switch over to summer gasoline blends.

[Pyperkub]

I also see the price of gas went up 50 cents a gallon this week. It must be election season. Ironically, every time they use energy as a leveraging chip, it helps the cause of Nuclear, renewables, and energy consumption that is less reliant on fossil fuels. Hopefully, one day it will start in on plastics.

Oh, come on. The price of gas is up, but it's not due to it being election season.

TLDR: It's mostly due to refineries shutting down for maintenance to switch over to summer gasoline blends.

Yeah, but ALL the usual misinformation machinery suspects (foreign and domestic) are spamming social media saying it's Biden's fault, and the usual rubes are buying it (and repeating it) as part of their cult membership .

[LordMortis]

CNBC is on this morning blaming pricing on US producers not being able to produce due to Bidenomics driving global prices up and the advantage being taken by Russia.

[pr0ner]

CNBC is on this morning blaming pricing on US producers not being able to produce due to Bidenomics driving global prices up and the advantage being taken by Russia.

Maybe it's past time to be sole sourcing your news from CNBC.

[LordMortis]

CNBC is on this morning blaming pricing on US producers not being able to produce due to Bidenomics driving global prices up and the advantage being taken by Russia.

Maybe it's past time to be sole sourcing your news from CNBC.

I agree. I'm looking for something better. I don't know where to turn.

[Isgrimnur]

[LordMortis]

Thanks. I might have to leave this on in the background and see if it's any good...

https://schwabnetwork.com/

I will try to remember tomorrow morning.

[LordMortis]

Tried this morning. It's how to do option trading. "Morning Trading Live" and it's not even live. It's from 16:00 last night.

[Kraken]

Record temperature jump in Antarctica is "simply mind-boggling"

n 18 March, 2022, scientists at the Concordia research station on the east Antarctic plateau documented a remarkable event. They recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured at a meteorological centre on Earth. According to their instruments, the region that day experienced a rise of 38.5C above its seasonal average: a world record.

This startling leap – in the coldest place on the planet – left polar researchers struggling for words to describe it. “It is simply mind-boggling,” said Prof Michael Meredith, science leader at the British Antarctic Survey. “In sub-zero temperatures such a massive leap is tolerable but if we had a 40C rise in the UK now that would take temperatures for a spring day to over 50C – and that would be deadly for the population.”

This amazement was shared by glaciologist Prof Martin Siegert, of the University of Exeter. “No one in our community thought that anything like this could ever happen. It is extraordinary and a real concern,” he told the Observer. “We are now having to wrestle with something that is completely unprecedented.”

For the Celsius-challenged (like myself), that's 101 F. 50C is 122F.

A lengthy explanation of the potential consequences follows. It's not a feel-good story.

[GreenGoo]

For the Celsius-challenged (like myself), that's 101 F. 50C is 122F.

A lengthy explanation of the potential consequences follows. It's not a feel-good story.

Note: 38.5C above its seasonal average

What was the temperature? Who knows? I couldn't find it while skimming the article, which is probably because the article they are referencing also appears to be missing this detail.

An increase of nearly 40C is, as Kraken points out, a HUGE increase. But I want to know what the average is and what the measured temperature was.

If anyone wants to do more than skim the articles, or are just better skimmers than I am, and find the numbers being used, please let us (me) know. Thanks.

[disarm]

Quick search says that the typical temperature for Antarctica in March is -55 to -69C. It's a crazy leap in temperature for one day, but the weather was still far below freezing.

[Blackhawk]

For the Celsius-challenged (like myself), that's 101 F. 50C is 122F.

A lengthy explanation of the potential consequences follows. It's not a feel-good story.

Note: 38.5C above its seasonal average

What was the temperature? Who knows? I couldn't find it while skimming the article, which is probably because the article they are referencing also appears to be missing this detail.

An increase of nearly 40C is, as Kraken points out, a HUGE increase. But I want to know what the average is and what the measured temperature was.

If anyone wants to do more than skim the articles, or are just better skimmers than I am, and find the numbers being used, please let us (me) know. Thanks.

[GreenGoo]

And that's why you want the information to come from the article. We have 3 sources of information, 1 leaves the actual temperature out completely, and the other two don't match, and one leaves us to do the math ourselves. It's not that the math is hard, it's that it's basic article writing to actually provide the information, not force the reader to go elsewhere.

Annoying.

[Alefroth]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68768598

A group of older Swiss women have won the first ever climate case victory in the European Court of Human Rights.
The women, mostly in their 70s, said that their age and gender made them particularly vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves linked to climate change.The court said Switzerland's efforts to meet its emission reduction targets had been woefully inadequate.
It is the first time the powerful court has ruled on global warming.

They launched their case nine years ago.

[Kraken]

The Guardian asked 380 climate scientists how they feel about our prospects. "Hopeless and broken" is typical of the answers.

An exclusive Guardian survey of hundreds of the world’s leading climate experts has found that:

77% of respondents believe global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above preindustrial levels, a devastating degree of heating;

almost half – 42% – think it will be more than 3C;

only 6% think the 1.5C limit will be achieved.

The task climate researchers have dedicated themselves to is to paint a picture of the possible worlds ahead. From experts in the atmosphere and oceans, energy and agriculture, economics and politics, the mood of almost all those the Guardian heard from was grim. And the future many painted was harrowing: famines, mass migration, conflict. “I find it infuriating, distressing, overwhelming,” said one expert, who chose not to be named. “I’m relieved that I do not have children, knowing what the future holds,” said another.

Meanwhile, we're facing an election between a president who is committed to advancing green energy and climate mitigation policies versus a man who says climate change is a Chinese hoax, and the denier is leading in the polls. Americans support addressing the crisis, but it's clearly not in our top political concerns.

[Unagi]

I took a continuing education class at NWU on climate change with like 8 different lecturers across a number of fields (like biologist with insect/plant forecasts and civil engineers with infrastructure plans).


my take aways:
New York will be fine. $$$ and bedrock
Florida is completely screwed.
There is going to be some real class division ahead of us. And corporate control.

[hitbyambulance]

The Guardian asked 380 climate scientists how they feel about our prospects. "Hopeless and broken" is typical of the answers.

An exclusive Guardian survey of hundreds of the world’s leading climate experts has found that:

77% of respondents believe global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above preindustrial levels, a devastating degree of heating;

almost half – 42% – think it will be more than 3C;

only 6% think the 1.5C limit will be achieved.

The task climate researchers have dedicated themselves to is to paint a picture of the possible worlds ahead. From experts in the atmosphere and oceans, energy and agriculture, economics and politics, the mood of almost all those the Guardian heard from was grim. And the future many painted was harrowing: famines, mass migration, conflict. “I find it infuriating, distressing, overwhelming,” said one expert, who chose not to be named. “I’m relieved that I do not have children, knowing what the future holds,” said another.

Meanwhile, we're facing an election between a president who is committed to advancing green energy and climate mitigation policies versus a man who says climate change is a Chinese hoax, and the denier is leading in the polls. Americans support addressing the crisis, but it's clearly not in our top political concerns.

The Guardian is one of the 'excessively alarmist' publications when it comes to this topic. here's a more sober take: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Yes ... -achieve-o

[GreenGoo]

lol. Sorry. I saw quora and thought it was an "ask quora".

Still, I find it hard to call any organization "alarmist" when it comes to climate change. No one is meeting their climate goals (repeatedly failing), which were only aimed at slowing things down until magic science happens anyway.

Can someone point me to a country that is equaling or exceeding their pledges?

[Jaymann]

lol. Sorry. I saw quora and thought it was an "ask quora".

Still, I find it hard to call any organization "alarmist" when it comes to climate change. No one is meeting their climate goals (repeatedly failing), which were only aimed at slowing things down until magic science happens anyway.

Can someone point me to a country that is equaling or exceeding their pledges?

Luxembourg is doing a bang up job.

[Kraken]

Carbon emissions are still growing every year, as renewable energy isn't coming online fast enough to offset the growth in electricity usage, primarily from EVs and data centers (AI) in the developed economies and from electrifying developing economies. We have already lost the battle for 1.5 C, and 2.0 is baked in, even if we magically hit all of our numbers on time (we won't). As the Guardian survey shows, many climate scientists believe that we're destined for 2.5 or beyond. That's going to be a radically different world from the one we evolved in.

It's the old boiling frog problem. Nations face too many pressing immediate problems to concentrate on the slow-motion background crisis, and by the time the climate emergency muscles its way to center stage, it will be too late to stop it. It may already be too late; there are climate tipping points and feedback loops that we are still learning about the hard way. But as one scientist said, every tenth of a degree matters.

[Blackhawk]

It doesn't help that power follows the money, and we're in a time when the money pours only from a few wells - wells that get their money by abusing the environment, and would lose some of that if it were more regulated.

[Isgrimnur]

Venezuela is first Andean country to lose all of its glaciers

For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.

However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain.

The International Climate and Cryosphere Initiative (ICCI), a science advocacy organization, recently declared that the Humboldt Glacier — also known as La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish — is already "too small to be classified as a glacier.” In March, Venezuelan scientists had warned that the glacier had dramatically shrunk.
...
Although there is no universal consensus on how large an ice mass must be to be considered a glacier, the USGS states that a commonly accepted standard is about 25 acres.
...
Between 1952 and 2019 alone, Venezuela’s glacier surface went from 2,317 square kilometers to just 0.046 square kilometers, according to a 2020 study.

[Unagi]

pfft. The Humboldt Glacier was a loser.

[stessier]

I'm sure this will be fine.

ivers and streams in Alaska are changing color – from a clean, clear blue to a rusty orange – because of the toxic metals released by thawing permafrost, according to a new study.

The finding surprised researchers from the National Park Service, the University of California at Davis and the US Geological Survey, who conducted tests at 75 locations in the waterways of Alaska’s Brooks Range. The rivers and streams in the range appeared to rust and became cloudy and orange over the past five to 10 years, according to the study published in the journal Communications: Earth & Environment.

The discoloration and cloudiness are being caused by metals such as iron, zinc, copper, nickel and lead, the researchers found – some of which are toxic to the river and stream ecosystems – as permafrost thaws and exposes the waterways to minerals locked away underground for thousands of years.

...

Alaska is not the only state experiencing this phenomenon. Another study, published just a month before researchers in Alaska made their findings public, details how Colorado’s Rocky Mountains are seeing similar effects from, among other things, a warming climate.

The study, published by Water Resources Research, notes an increase of metal concentrations – namely sulfate, zinc and copper – across 22 of Colorado’s mountain streams in the past 30 years. Researchers found a reduced streamflow accounted for half of the increase, while the other half, they say, is from the thawing of frozen ground that allows for minerals to leach out of the bedrock.

These studies have extended beyond the US in the past. Similar research on increases in metal and rare earth element concentrations in mountain rivers and streams has been done in the Chilean Andes, the European Alps and the Pyrenees in northern Spain.

[Kraken]

So, how's humanity doing these days? We must have at least bent the curve, right?

Wrong. Not even close.

CO2 hits new record level

This May, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere hit nearly 427 parts per million, which is an increase of about 3 parts per million compared to last year’s peak. That’s one of the largest annual jumps on record, scientists say.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been steadily increasing since scientists began routine measurements in 1958. At that time, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 313 parts per million, slightly higher than in the 19th century, when the Industrial Revolution sparked the widespread consumption of fossil fuels.

But in recent years, growth of CO2 in the atmosphere has accelerated. In the first four months of this year, the CO2 concentration increased more quickly than it has during the first four months of any previous year on record, according to scientists at NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of San Diego.

...

In the U.S., greenhouse gas emissions fell slightly last year but those declines do not put the country on track to meet climate targets set by the Biden administration.

Remember when 400 ppm set off alarm bells? Those were the days.

[Victoria Raverna]

Texas gone woke?

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-asks-peo ... rs-1909517

Texas officials are urging residents in some areas to use different modes of transportation other than their cars on Friday as ozone pollution in the state reach concerning levels.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has declared an Ozone Action Day for the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Galveston and Brazoria areas because of high levels of ozone, also known as smog. Officials suggested that to help reduce the pollution, people should minimize the use of their vehicles.

"Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing high levels of ozone pollution in the Houston, Galveston, and surrounding areas on Friday," the alert posted by the National Weather Service (NWS) said. "You can help prevent ozone pollution by sharing a ride, walking, riding a bicycle, taking your lunch to work, avoiding drive through lanes, conserving energy and keeping your vehicle properly tuned."

[Blackhawk]

Not a chance.

There are always a few agencies whose job requires a modern mindset. In places where a modern mindset isn't favored, those agencies tend to be neutered. And here, at the end of the day, they didn't legislate giant pickup trucks, they didn't provide incentives, they didn't budget for improved green infrastructure.

They gave the public a suggestion.

[Isgrimnur]

More than 1,000 hajj pilgrims die amid temperatures approaching 52C in Mecca

The death toll from this year’s hajj has exceeded 1,000, with more than half of the victims unregistered worshippers who performed the pilgrimage in extreme heat in Saudi Arabia.

The new deaths reported on Thursday included 58 from Egypt, according to an Arab diplomat who provided a breakdown showing that of 658 Egyptians who died, 630 were unregistered pilgrims.
...
Each year tens of thousands of pilgrims try to join the hajj through irregular channels as they cannot afford the often costly official permits.

Saudi authorities reported clearing hundreds of thousands of unregistered pilgrims from Mecca this month, but it appears many still participated in the main rites which began last Friday. This group was more vulnerable, because without official permits they could not access air-conditioned spaces provided for the 1.8 million authorised pilgrims to cool down.
...
A 2019 study by the journal Geophysical Research Letters said because of the climate crisis, heat stress for hajj pilgrims would exceed the “extreme danger threshold” from 2047 to 2052 and 2079 to 2086, “with increasing frequency and intensity as the century progresses”.