[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:18 pm

We were recently acquired, and our parent company is in Toronto. We were just told that they are all WFH until at least April 6.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:22 pm

was going to take son back to the Seattle art museum tomorrow, but got an email they're closing as of tomorrow - as are all the libraries.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:24 pm

jztemple2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:59 pm From what I'm reading from you folks (excellent information in your posts! keep it up) I'm picking today as the tipping point or threshold or whatever you want to call it, where now if your organization hasn't canceled your big concert/sporting event/festival you are insensitive and probably a villain. I predict major announcements from NASCAR, Disney and Universal within a few hours.

Unless I'm wrong of course

From my neck of the woods (Florida):

Turns out I wasn't wrong. Walt Disney World and Universal Florida will close this weekend, although their hotels will remain open. Disney has said their cast members will be paid. Disney is also cancelling all their cruises starting on Saturday.

NASCAR is still planning to run this weekend's Atlanta races but with no spectators, as is Indycar at St Pete. I wonder if that will hold through the next day or so. The Indycar race at Long Beach, California is cancelled because the governor has cancelled gatherings of 250 people or more.

Stefan Stirzaker · Post by **Stefan Stirzaker** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 pm

Chief Health Officer has recommended to Prime Minister and State Ministers, that all gatherings > 500 people be stopped. (Australia). And that's with a country with only 200 cases.

We had fireworks for our town for tomorrow and they are delayed now, not a large group of people, as they're spread out with > 2 m between everyone on the shores of our lake, but excess of caution i guess.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:29 pm

We went out to dinner at our favorite local cheese steak place and they are doing OK. They said they actually had a decent lunch crowd. They are a small time operation and probably wouldn't survive a big hit to income, but they do support a lot of take out orders.

Followed that up with dessert at a Culver's, custard sundaes (mmm

). They were also doing well.

Finally ended up shopping at a Publix in a more ritzy area than our local one. No TP

and surprisingly no ground beef, almost no eggs and few tomatoes. And a significant amount of empty shelves. Must be people stocking up.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:04 am

I only go out once a week so I don't have a sense of how much business restaurants are losing. Didn't seem significant as of last Tuesday. But if you're fond of a local (non-chain) restaurant and concerned about their survival, buy a gift certificate. Your money helps tide them over in the short term, and you get a free or discounted meal later on.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:59 am

I've seen mention of some medications that treat hypertension resting on the AT1R receptor which is the binding site for SARS coronavirus thus providing some protection against the bug. https://suzycohen.com/articles/natural- ... -covid-19/

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 am

jztemple2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:24 pm
*Just to lighten the mood, I'll point out that as an optimist my wife is the "glass half full" type, most pessimists would say a "glass half empty" but speaking as a retired engineer, I wonder why they designed the glass to be twice the size it needed to be

The glass was designed correctly. The user just didn't read the manual.

Kasey Chang · Post by **Kasey Chang** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:46 am

The /r/dollartree reddit reports from dollar tree employees that people are basically staking out their doors for any shipment of hand sanitizers and grabbing as many as they can. Any shipment they get can be sold out in a few hours. One reported that they didn't even have time to stock it. As soon as come off the truck they're sold.

Kasey Chang · Post by **Kasey Chang** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:58 am

Italy's panic means numbers are rising rapidly. 2313 new cases in 24 hours. Yikes. That's like a 25% gain day to day. And now all of its neighbors are reporting hundreds of new cases each.

Iran is holding the line at 958 new cases in past 24 hours.

US reported 291 new cases, another 30% gain day, and as more states test just about everyone that they deem a risk, this number will grow rapidly. And that's a lagged number. CDC's 1 day ahead number shows 1215 confirmed cases (that's almost 300 more than day before)

Several deaths in California were in Santa Clara county, which includes San Jose, south of San Francisco (about 1 hour drive away). CDC's latest briefing suggests that the deaths are seniors living in care facilities, and they are basically suggesting that the facilities stop all social activities and stagger meetings so no more than 10 attend at a time and keep social distances, and self-quarantine if necessary.

California governor Newsome just issued governor's executive order, asking EVERY county and city in California, as well as all public sector entities to stop ANY non-essential meetings of over 250 people until end of March, if not longer.

Newsome also said most of the CDC test kits are missing stuff... generally, the reagents (I think someone here discussed that before), but he's confident with two commercial labs and the existing state and county labs should allow 5000 tests a day.

The executive order also gave authorities power to commandeer facilities for medical or quarantine purposes.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:11 am

NPR was reporting today on how the virus survives outside hosts, with the following:

It can remain viable and alive in the air for at least 3 hours. They didn't test a duration longer than that.
It can survive on cardboard for up to 24 hours.
It can survive on plastics and stainless steel for up to 72 hours.

The test was done using live virus and cell cultures, and if the cultures got infected they knew the virus was still active.

One report I read yesterday said that "droplets" from a cough should fall to the floor, so I wonder how they kept the virus suspended in the air for hours.

Up here in Maine, our one case was a Navy member who returned from Italy. Not much more word on that.

Colleges are moving to online-only. No K-12 schools closing yet. I tried talking with my wife about when we might want to pull the kids out and she's of the opinion that we wait for the schools to tell us, not before. I also wanted to discuss maybe buying an extra "one" of some bulk food items we normally get, to have a reserve that might last us more than a couple weeks and she looked at me like I had suggested we load up our guns and bunker down; but she did agree to buy enough dog food to last a month, just in case.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:21 am

Our school district doubled Spring Break yesterday.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:33 am

https://twitter.com/PenmanMirror/status ... 7675616258

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:40 am

It's funny that they put that over the most overpowered card in the game.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:50 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:11 am I wonder how they kept the virus suspended in the air for hours.

Virus stability in aerosols was determined as described previously at 65% relative humidity (RH) and 21-23°C.15 In short, aerosols (<5 µm) containing HCoV-19 (105.25 69
TCID50/mL) or SARS-CoV-1 (106.75-7 70 TCID50/mL) were generated using a 3-jet Collison nebulizer and
71 fed into a Goldberg drum to create an aerosolized environment. Aerosols were maintained in the
72 Goldberg drum and samples were collected at 0, 30, 60, 120 and 180 minutes post-aerosolization on a
73 47mm gelatin filter (Sartorius). Filters were dissolved in 10 mL of DMEM containing 10% FBS. Three
74 replicate experiments were performed.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:50 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:11 am I wonder how they kept the virus suspended in the air for hours.

Virus stability in aerosols was determined as described previously at 65% relative humidity (RH) and 21-23°C.15 In short, aerosols (<5 µm) containing HCoV-19 (105.25 69
TCID50/mL) or SARS-CoV-1 (106.75-7 70 TCID50/mL) were generated using a 3-jet Collison nebulizer and
71 fed into a Goldberg drum to create an aerosolized environment. Aerosols were maintained in the
72 Goldberg drum and samples were collected at 0, 30, 60, 120 and 180 minutes post-aerosolization on a
73 47mm gelatin filter (Sartorius). Filters were dissolved in 10 mL of DMEM containing 10% FBS. Three
74 replicate experiments were performed.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 am

Looks like the panic dam has broken in my neighborhood.

On Wednesday I went to the grocery to buy fish for dinner, and everything was pretty normal. The toilet paper and sanitizer shelves had gaps but weren't empty, and the crowding was minimal.

Last night (Thursday) my wife went to the grocery around 9pm to pick up some essentials, but the parking lot was overflowing. This morning (Friday) she went again at the place was nearly as packed--30 minutes after opening at 6:00 am.

The crowd scene inside was unpleasant, even to the point of people cutting each other off in line for the register. My wife helped an elderly women move forward into place when someone tried to exploit her slowness, and the would-be exploiter wasn't too happy.

I guess we'll be gnawing the bones of our neighbors in a couple of weeks here.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:02 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:11 am NPR was reporting today on how the virus survives outside hosts, with the following:
It can remain viable and alive in the air for at least 3 hours. They didn't test a duration longer than that.

It might be theoretically possible, but there's no evidence yet to suggest it's actually happening. If the virus was truly airborne, the R0 numbers would be much higher - similar to measles (which incidentally is why measles is such a big concern). The mechanism for how the virus exits the body (cough, sneeze vs just breathing) is how you get from droplet spread vs airborne spread. Current theory for this is those droplets.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:14 am

Holman wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 amI guess we'll be gnawing the bones of our neighbors in a couple of weeks here.

We live in semi-rural area and our local supermarket was insane last night at 9:30pm (it closes at 10pm). I've never seen anything like it. The cashier was telling me there was a line 20+ deep around 5pm. I cannot imagine what more metro areas are like at this point. People are absolutely losing their minds.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:20 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:14 am
Holman wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 amI guess we'll be gnawing the bones of our neighbors in a couple of weeks here.
We live in semi-rural area and our local supermarket was insane last night at 9:30pm (it closes at 10pm). I've never seen anything like it. The cashier was telling me there was a line 20+ deep around 5pm. I cannot imagine what more metro areas are like at this point. People are absolutely losing their minds.

Most stores around here looked like a busy weekend. Nothing crazy which is probably a factor of grocery store saturation, at least in the northside. I got some odds and ends at lunch yesterday and it was mildly more crowded. Everyone was buying paper towels because I guess they maxed out on TP.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:24 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:14 am
Holman wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 amI guess we'll be gnawing the bones of our neighbors in a couple of weeks here.
We live in semi-rural area and our local supermarket was insane last night at 9:30pm (it closes at 10pm). I've never seen anything like it. The cashier was telling me there was a line 20+ deep around 5pm. I cannot imagine what more metro areas are like at this point. People are absolutely losing their minds.

Where I am in Central Jersey it is very different. The asian markets are pretty reasonable. My wife put a finger on it. People are scared/racist against these Chinese and Korean markets. I went at lunch yesterday to pick up some non-essentials and it was chill. I am curious what it looks like today. I expect my local Shoprite is mobbed.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:26 am

I think the trigger for us is that the next county over has been declared the center of the outbreak in Eastern PA. The governor has closed schools there and asked people to self-quarantine where possible.

The county line is just a couple of miles from my neighborhood. Probably the Infected were streaming in to exploit our groceries. I see no choice but to fortify the border. Hopefully we can stop them on the Schuylkill River.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:33 am

Governor Brown closed all schools here in Oregon through 3/31. Really not much more than doubling spring break, but still. There has been a cascade of cancellations, and there’s definitely a feeling of panic in the air. TP and other foodstuffs totally sold out at the local grocery store last night. Fun times.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:51 am

I was supposed to inspect polling places to determine whether they were accessible for the disabled and elderly for the Illinois primary on the 17th, but I just got word that the organization that is running the project has called it off. Since I got my request to do a mail-in ballot in under the wire yesterday, I'm feeling pretty good about that.

Kraken wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:04 am I only go out once a week so I don't have a sense of how much business restaurants are losing. Didn't seem significant as of last Tuesday. But if you're fond of a local (non-chain) restaurant and concerned about their survival, buy a gift certificate. Your money helps tide them over in the short term, and you get a free or discounted meal later on.

I also read somewhere that if you have the resources to be eating out these days, you should consider overtipping. Service workers are likely to be hit hard, either by the virus itself or by the economic impacts.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:51 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:14 am
Holman wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 amI guess we'll be gnawing the bones of our neighbors in a couple of weeks here.
We live in semi-rural area and our local supermarket was insane last night at 9:30pm (it closes at 10pm). I've never seen anything like it. The cashier was telling me there was a line 20+ deep around 5pm. I cannot imagine what more metro areas are like at this point. People are absolutely losing their minds.

We're planning to go out tomorrow morning at 6:00am and skip all the normal grocery stores and hit up a WalMart first thing, before insanity wakes up too much. Not to stock up on toilet paper and sanitizers, but just to make our normal bi-weekly shopping run. It should be ... interesting.

A small perk to living in a state with 1.3 million people spread out over 35,385 square miles is that insanity can only be so dense - and we're removed from population centers by an hour's drive north or south.

stimpy · Post by **stimpy** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:49 am

Just got confirmation that a conference I planned to attend in Dallas at the end of April has been cancelled.
Was taking Amtrak there, so now I have to fight with them over their cancellation fee.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:53 am

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:51 am I was supposed to inspect polling places to determine whether they were accessible for the disabled and elderly for the Illinois primary on the 17th, but I just got word that the organization that is running the project has called it off. Since I got my request to do a mail-in ballot in under the wire yesterday, I'm feeling pretty good about that.

Kraken wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:04 am I only go out once a week so I don't have a sense of how much business restaurants are losing. Didn't seem significant as of last Tuesday. But if you're fond of a local (non-chain) restaurant and concerned about their survival, buy a gift certificate. Your money helps tide them over in the short term, and you get a free or discounted meal later on.
I also read somewhere that if you have the resources to be eating out these days, you should consider overtipping. Service workers are likely to be hit hard, either by the virus itself or by the economic impacts.

I've been tipping more generously since my income went up last year. I used to figure 15% on the amount before tax. Now I do 20% on the bottom line, and even a bit more if the service is extraordinary or the server is cute.

I'm going to make an unscheduled grocery run this afternoon. We'll soon see if the panic is locally evident.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:55 am

Boston Marathon pushed back from April to Sept. And my own half-marathon for April has been canceled.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am

A friend of mine on Facebook made a big deal out of shaving off his beard "for the safety of others".

hentzau · Post by **hentzau** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am

I have a good friend who is a public school teacher in Michigan (Detroit suburbs). She's been told they are going to have to go to e-learning for a month.

She's a kindergarten teacher. How the hell do you do e-learning with a kindergartener? Just stream Sesame Street?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:15 am

pr0ner wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am A friend of mine on Facebook made a big deal out of shaving off his beard "for the safety of others".

Because....his beard is...I really don't understand. Is his beard somehow blocking washing his hands or coughing into his elbow?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:17 am

I've had trouble keeping up - is there any discussion of why Italy was hit so much harder than the rest of mainland Europe?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:17 am

pr0ner wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am A friend of mine on Facebook made a big deal out of shaving off his beard "for the safety of others".

I've heard of beards being threats to good fashion, but never public safety.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am

hentzau wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am I have a good friend who is a public school teacher in Michigan (Detroit suburbs). She's been told they are going to have to go to e-learning for a month.

She's a kindergarten teacher. How the hell do you do e-learning with a kindergartener? Just stream Sesame Street?

My granddaughter is in kg and she gets e-homework. I'm sure they can expand the program.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:15 am
pr0ner wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am A friend of mine on Facebook made a big deal out of shaving off his beard "for the safety of others".
Because....his beard is...I really don't understand. Is his beard somehow blocking washing his hands or coughing into his elbow?

Because "beards can carry pathogens".

Someone else on his post said "facial hair holds on to bacteria regardless of what the CDC said".

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:20 am

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:17 am I've had trouble keeping up - is there any discussion of why Italy was hit so much harder than the rest of mainland Europe?

See the Medium link posted earlier.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:25 am

pr0ner wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 amBecause "beards can carry pathogens".Someone else on his post said "facial hair holds on to bacteria regardless of what the CDC said".

I mean...I guess? But they also hold good bacteria and other useful organisms.

I guess he saw this and is now feeling good?

But in no shape or form is the CDC saying that hirsute individuals must part with their 'chin curtains' or 'ducktails' if they're in the path of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Unfortunately, this latest nonsense joins a long list of misinformation that public health authorities are already battling on a daily basis. Right now, it's everyone's duty not to share false information and faulty advice that could make matters worse.

surgical mask versus respirator cdc

I legit don't understand some people.

"Get a vaccine and protect yourself and others."
No way - I'm not getting a shot! That's ridiculous! It's my body!

"Don't shave - it has nothing to do with COVID-19"
Hello FaceBook - all hail me for I am cutting off my luxurious beard for the good of society!

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:27 am

Holman wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 am Looks like the panic dam has broken in my neighborhood.

On Wednesday I went to the grocery to buy fish for dinner, and everything was pretty normal. The toilet paper and sanitizer shelves had gaps but weren't empty, and the crowding was minimal.

Last night (Thursday) my wife went to the grocery around 9pm to pick up some essentials, but the parking lot was overflowing. This morning (Friday) she went again at the place was nearly as packed--30 minutes after opening at 6:00 am.

The crowd scene inside was unpleasant, even to the point of people cutting each other off in line for the register. My wife helped an elderly women move forward into place when someone tried to exploit her slowness, and the would-be exploiter wasn't too happy.

I guess we'll be gnawing the bones of our neighbors in a couple of weeks here.

Same here outside ATL. I am now hearing of stores that will be closing at noon today. I suspect this to be my last day at the office, already had a confirmed case across the street and they were locked down yesterday already. My neighborhood bar better stay open as there is zero chance I can be locked up with my wife and kid for 2+ weeks.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:25 am
pr0ner wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 amBecause "beards can carry pathogens".Someone else on his post said "facial hair holds on to bacteria regardless of what the CDC said".
I mean...I guess? But they also hold good bacteria and other useful organisms.

I guess he saw this and is now feeling good?

But in no shape or form is the CDC saying that hirsute individuals must part with their 'chin curtains' or 'ducktails' if they're in the path of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Unfortunately, this latest nonsense joins a long list of misinformation that public health authorities are already battling on a daily basis. Right now, it's everyone's duty not to share false information and faulty advice that could make matters worse.

surgical mask versus respirator cdc
I legit don't understand some people.

"Get a vaccine and protect yourself and others."
No way - I'm not getting a shot! That's ridiculous! It's my body!

"Don't shave - it has nothing to do with COVID-19"
Hello FaceBook - all hail me for I am cutting off my luxurious beard for the good of society!

Yeah, seeing that post this morning definitely made me go "WTF".

He's a bit of an oddball to begin with, so he likely did read an article somewhere saying that beards hold pathogens and that he needed to shave.

I won't be shaving off my beard.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:34 am

hentzau wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 am I have a good friend who is a public school teacher in Michigan (Detroit suburbs). She's been told they are going to have to go to e-learning for a month.

She's a kindergarten teacher. How the hell do you do e-learning with a kindergartener? Just stream Sesame Street?

ABC Mouse?