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We may not lynch him, no high visibility means he could be hiding as the seer.El Guapo wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:06 pm I'm assuming that there was probably one wolf on the Moliere vote and one wolf off.
The question is why Vorret on the night kill. Vorret doesn't attract much lynch attention usually, and didn't say a *ton* on day 1, so maybe just a choice that wasn't likely to get lynched anyway and doesn't tell us all that much?
That would suck.Lassr wrote:We may not lynch him, no high visibility means he could be hiding as the seer.El Guapo wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:06 pm I'm assuming that there was probably one wolf on the Moliere vote and one wolf off.
The question is why Vorret on the night kill. Vorret doesn't attract much lynch attention usually, and didn't say a *ton* on day 1, so maybe just a choice that wasn't likely to get lynched anyway and doesn't tell us all that much?
I would be surprised if that was a reason.. wolves have no powers so it would have been a shot in the dark if they killed him because he was a seer. There would be no way for them to tell until the seer revealed himself.. and since roles are random, Vorrent wouldn't be chosen for the seer because he doesn't attract much lynch attention.Lassr wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:22 pmWe may not lynch him, no high visibility means he could be hiding as the seer.El Guapo wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:06 pm I'm assuming that there was probably one wolf on the Moliere vote and one wolf off.
The question is why Vorret on the night kill. Vorret doesn't attract much lynch attention usually, and didn't say a *ton* on day 1, so maybe just a choice that wasn't likely to get lynched anyway and doesn't tell us all that much?
I think the idea is that there's no sense in targeting villagers who the wolves think are likely to be lynch targets, because (if said person turns out to be the seer), the village may wind up exposing them and doing the wolves' work for them. Whereas a less likely lynch target, if they turned out to be the seer, could otherwise last most of the game (and screw the wolves by getting in 3+ good scans).Punisher wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:05 pmI would be surprised if that was a reason.. wolves have no powers so it would have been a shot in the dark if they killed him because he was a seer. There would be no way for them to tell until the seer revealed himself.. and since roles are random, Vorrent wouldn't be chosen for the seer because he doesn't attract much lynch attention.Lassr wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:22 pmWe may not lynch him, no high visibility means he could be hiding as the seer.El Guapo wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:06 pm I'm assuming that there was probably one wolf on the Moliere vote and one wolf off.
The question is why Vorret on the night kill. Vorret doesn't attract much lynch attention usually, and didn't say a *ton* on day 1, so maybe just a choice that wasn't likely to get lynched anyway and doesn't tell us all that much?
I know it is long, but read this. Especially Holman.Holman wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:45 pm One Wolf was chosen, and in retrospect I think it would be smart play to choose El Guapo, bb2112, or Lassr. Since *both* bb2112 and Lassr voted El Guapo at one point, I think at least one of them isn't a Wolf.
Aren't El G and bb2112 the only two who voted for each other? Good cover, and they did it when there was little risk of follow-through.
bb2112
Hey, now: I wouldn't go so far as to call it "logic."bb2112 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:14 am Holman, based on your own logic, El Guapo seems to fit the wolfy vibe slightly better than me, so then why would you vote for me over El Guapo if you believe both of us to be evil?
El Guapo wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:13 pmI think the idea is that there's no sense in targeting villagers who the wolves think are likely to be lynch targets, because (if said person turns out to be the seer), the village may wind up exposing them and doing the wolves' work for them. Whereas a less likely lynch target, if they turned out to be the seer, could otherwise last most of the game (and screw the wolves by getting in 3+ good scans).Punisher wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:05 pmI would be surprised if that was a reason.. wolves have no powers so it would have been a shot in the dark if they killed him because he was a seer. There would be no way for them to tell until the seer revealed himself.. and since roles are random, Vorrent wouldn't be chosen for the seer because he doesn't attract much lynch attention.Lassr wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:22 pmWe may not lynch him, no high visibility means he could be hiding as the seer.El Guapo wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:06 pm I'm assuming that there was probably one wolf on the Moliere vote and one wolf off.
The question is why Vorret on the night kill. Vorret doesn't attract much lynch attention usually, and didn't say a *ton* on day 1, so maybe just a choice that wasn't likely to get lynched anyway and doesn't tell us all that much?
And why do you think that? Not saying you are wrong, just want to understand why.Scoop20906 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:25 am I said I thought both wolves are on the Moliere vote before the night kill and they subsequently killed the player on the vote with the least heat. I think this was a calculated decision to try us throw us off.
I still think both wolves were on that vote. I think my vote for bb2112 as the beta wolf is a good one.
you used an awful lot of brain power on that.bb2112 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:14 amI know it is long, but read this. Especially Holman.Holman wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:45 pm One Wolf was chosen, and in retrospect I think it would be smart play to choose El Guapo, bb2112, or Lassr. Since *both* bb2112 and Lassr voted El Guapo at one point, I think at least one of them isn't a Wolf.
Aren't El G and bb2112 the only two who voted for each other? Good cover, and they did it when there was little risk of follow-through.
bb2112
Premises:
1. If Holman's logic is true, and I and El Guapo are evil and voted for each other while there not being a lot of chance of day 1 follow through, then that would put me and El G as suspect #1 and suspect #2. (This is not true since I know I'm not a wolf, but you guys do not.)
2. If we can assume there was most likely one wolf off the Moliere vote, then that would leave El Guapo, Punisher and Lassr as the top suspects from that analysis point.
3. You say it would be a good move for the wolf to choose El Guapo, bb2112 or Lassr as a wolf. That in your mind puts the three of us as your top suspects.
4. Holman also points out that Lassr and I most likely are not both wolves as we both voted for El Guapo. Meaning one (or both) of us are most likely innocent. (Again, I know I am, but you do not.)
5. Probably the weakest point, but I did put the final vote on Moliere. That makes me stand out and not blend in. Not typically a wolf move, but I have stood out as a wolf before, so I get why this is not the best argument where I'm concerned.
Conclusion:
1. El Guapo intersects points 1, 2, & 3 of potential wolfiness, Whereas I intersect points 1 & 3, and Lassr intersects points 2 & 3.
2. In point 4 if you believe Lassr to be innocent and a good WW player, and he saw something in El Guapo to vote for him, then doesn't it stand to reason there should be some weight in his opinion? Since you point out that Lassr and I are most likely not both evil, and you voted for me, then I have to assume you have exonerated Lassr (at least for now) in your own mind.
Holman, based on your own logic, El Guapo seems to fit the wolfy vibe slightly better than me, so then why would you vote for me over El Guapo if you believe both of us to be evil?
you used an awful lot of brain power on that.
When has someone else ever stopped you from being chaotic scoop?Scoop20906 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:37 pm I feel a bit muted, Newcastle. Moliere is one of my usual foils but he was muted himself. No Unagi to constantly be suspicious of. No one gunning for my head? What am I susposed to do? Lol
Lassr - what we absloutely know 100% Vorret was innocent. We also know moliere was innocent. But Vorret helps shape the game, because it was the wolves moves. I kind of like to try to disect their moves. That was their big move...now why? Its an interesting choice. I dont think i am over reacting, instead I am trying to figure out their mindset a bit more. Its the one main clue we have that has their paw prints on it.Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm I've said it before, we are all well seasoned enough at this that it is harder and harder to catch someone without a little luck. Sure there are wolf signs there but you usually don't see them until after the game.
The trick is picking which thing is actually a sign.
So, El Guapo I think would make a good partner.
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Newcastle felt like he was "over acting" the Why Vorret angle.
Scoop is...Scoop
So that is a few things that have stood out to me. Are any of those signs? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not...
Finally!!!Newcastle wrote:When has someone else ever stopped you from being chaotic scoop?Scoop20906 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:37 pm I feel a bit muted, Newcastle. Moliere is one of my usual foils but he was muted himself. No Unagi to constantly be suspicious of. No one gunning for my head? What am I susposed to do? Lol
/arches eyebrow
fine
withdraw punisher
scoop
I feel like it was a reaction to my post about the two of them being on the Moliere vote or like you said offing a player that will have lasting power.Newcastle wrote:Lassr - what we absloutely know 100% Vorret was innocent. We also know moliere was innocent. But Vorret helps shape the game, because it was the wolves moves. I kind of like to try to disect their moves. That was their big move...now why? Its an interesting choice. I dont think i am over reacting, instead I am trying to figure out their mindset a bit more. Its the one main clue we have that has their paw prints on it.Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm I've said it before, we are all well seasoned enough at this that it is harder and harder to catch someone without a little luck. Sure there are wolf signs there but you usually don't see them until after the game.
The trick is picking which thing is actually a sign.
So, El Guapo I think would make a good partner.
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Newcastle felt like he was "over acting" the Why Vorret angle.
Scoop is...Scoop
So that is a few things that have stood out to me. Are any of those signs? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not...
/tips hatScoop20906 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:06 pmFinally!!!Newcastle wrote:When has someone else ever stopped you from being chaotic scoop?Scoop20906 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:37 pm I feel a bit muted, Newcastle. Moliere is one of my usual foils but he was muted himself. No Unagi to constantly be suspicious of. No one gunning for my head? What am I susposed to do? Lol
/arches eyebrow
fine
withdraw punisher
scoop
Actually that was offense, not defense.Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Couple things..Newcastle wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:05 am I'm also trying to wrap my head around who i think could be guilty and who could be innocent. And I can't come up with anything clean one way or another. Some people i think are acting a bit odd, but it could be benign reasons. I think scoop is a bit muted believe it or not. BB is acting off, El Guapo brain isn't present yet that i am use to. Lassr i dont know about. Holman i feel is flyign under the radar. punisher too laizes faire. And man that's all who's playing. Wow.
I really can't fault anyone for yesterdays vote either. And that is kind of bothering me, that i cant get a real read on the game, since I can make a solid case against everyone and no really exonerate anyone. Hmm, what to do what to do.
/scratches head in puzzlement
/taps fingers melodically on the hardwood walls
I cant think of a game where there were any obvious signs of wolfishness on day 1.. There just isn't enough data.Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm I've said it before, we are all well seasoned enough at this that it is harder and harder to catch someone without a little luck. Sure there are wolf signs there but you usually don't see them until after the game.
The trick is picking which thing is actually a sign.
So, El Guapo I think would make a good partner.
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Newcastle felt like he was "over acting" the Why Vorret angle.
Scoop is...Scoop
So that is a few things that have stood out to me. Are any of those signs? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not...
While they definitely weren't wolves, I'm not sure if I would call them innocent..Newcastle wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:04 pmLassr - what we absloutely know 100% Vorret was innocent. We also know moliere was innocent. But Vorret helps shape the game, because it was the wolves moves. I kind of like to try to disect their moves. That was their big move...now why? Its an interesting choice. I dont think i am over reacting, instead I am trying to figure out their mindset a bit more. Its the one main clue we have that has their paw prints on it.Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm I've said it before, we are all well seasoned enough at this that it is harder and harder to catch someone without a little luck. Sure there are wolf signs there but you usually don't see them until after the game.
The trick is picking which thing is actually a sign.
So, El Guapo I think would make a good partner.
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Newcastle felt like he was "over acting" the Why Vorret angle.
Scoop is...Scoop
So that is a few things that have stood out to me. Are any of those signs? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not...
While I am not now, nor have I ever been a wolf, I'm not sure anyone can say I've never been evil.Scoop20906 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:15 pmI feel like it was a reaction to my post about the two of them being on the Moliere vote or like you said offing a player that will have lasting power.Newcastle wrote:Lassr - what we absloutely know 100% Vorret was innocent. We also know moliere was innocent. But Vorret helps shape the game, because it was the wolves moves. I kind of like to try to disect their moves. That was their big move...now why? Its an interesting choice. I dont think i am over reacting, instead I am trying to figure out their mindset a bit more. Its the one main clue we have that has their paw prints on it.Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm I've said it before, we are all well seasoned enough at this that it is harder and harder to catch someone without a little luck. Sure there are wolf signs there but you usually don't see them until after the game.
The trick is picking which thing is actually a sign.
So, El Guapo I think would make a good partner.
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Newcastle felt like he was "over acting" the Why Vorret angle.
Scoop is...Scoop
So that is a few things that have stood out to me. Are any of those signs? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not...
I think it is interesting that it avoids the usual suspects. Take on face value that points directly at our resident newb. I don’t think Punisher has ever been evil has he?
Punisher, you got something to get off your chest?
Punisher wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:42 pm bb and laser..
Any particular reason for those votes or just trying to kill off Moliere's Alt?
Lassr wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:04 pm
So, El Guapo I think would make a good partner.
BB2112 used a lot of brain power when he had 2 votes on him. Defensive wolf trying not to get lynched?
Newcastle felt like he was "over acting" the Why Vorret angle.
Scoop is...Scoop
So that is a few things that have stood out to me. Are any of those signs? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not...
I'm curious - why did you drop your vote on me?