Octopus Overlords

Defiant wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:12 am I would assume that for these specific vaccines we don't know yet, but what happens in other vaccines that require two doses and the second dose is delayed? Does it significantly lower their effectiveness?

These vaccines are a triumph. In large-scale trials with tens of thousands of participants, both demonstrated around 95 percent efficacy in preventing Covid-19 — a stunning number exceeding our best hopes.

Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.

If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve.

But to get there — to test this possibility — we must act fast and must quickly acquire more data.

For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.

That raises the question of whether we should already be administrating only a single dose. But while the data is suggestive, it is also limited; important questions remain, and approval would require high standards and more trials.

malchior wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:19 am

Defiant wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:12 am I would assume that for these specific vaccines we don't know yet, but what happens in other vaccines that require two doses and the second dose is delayed? Does it significantly lower their effectiveness?

There was a piece about this in the NY Times a few weeks ago. The authors actually proposed delaying/ditching the second dose in favor of giving as many people a 1st dose as possible. The UK just announced today that this will be their path for now. The authors of this op ed argued that 90+% effectiveness across double the people may be better than 95% in 100%. The math sounds right but this is definitely a debate that belongs at the Fauci level to validate it.

These vaccines are a triumph. In large-scale trials with tens of thousands of participants, both demonstrated around 95 percent efficacy in preventing Covid-19 — a stunning number exceeding our best hopes.

Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.

If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve.

But to get there — to test this possibility — we must act fast and must quickly acquire more data.

For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.

That raises the question of whether we should already be administrating only a single dose. But while the data is suggestive, it is also limited; important questions remain, and approval would require high standards and more trials.

gilraen wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:58 pm So I'm not a microbiologist or anything - but if they are haphazardly vaccinating only a small percentage of the population, with some people getting only 1 dose, is there a risk that it would only push the virus to mutate faster? Kinda like when you don't finish your full regimen of antibiotics, you can end up with resistant bacteria.

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:29 pm i've now heard both 'vaccinations will selectively push viruses to be more transmissible in a declining non-immune population' and 'letting virus infections run rampant allows more genetic drift to occur, thus possibly making them more transmissible'

Jeff V wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:44 pm

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:29 pm i've now heard both 'vaccinations will selectively push viruses to be more transmissible in a declining non-immune population' and 'letting virus infections run rampant allows more genetic drift to occur, thus possibly making them more transmissible'

I've heard it said before that viruses tend to mutate towards being less lethal, as killing ones host is considered an evolutionary dead-end. Which makes this new strain rather interesting from that perspective.

Defiant wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:54 pm

Jeff V wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:44 pm

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:29 pm i've now heard both 'vaccinations will selectively push viruses to be more transmissible in a declining non-immune population' and 'letting virus infections run rampant allows more genetic drift to occur, thus possibly making them more transmissible'

I've heard it said before that viruses tend to mutate towards being less lethal, as killing ones host is considered an evolutionary dead-end. Which makes this new strain rather interesting from that perspective.

I thought the new strain is just more infectious. Is it more lethal, too? (other than keeping the hospitals more full, thus eliminating the availability of healthcare)

The Beijing Institute of Biological Products created an inactivated coronavirus vaccine that was put into clinical trials by the state-owned Chinese company Sinopharm. On Dec. 30, Sinopharm announced that the vaccine had an efficacy of 79.34 percent, leading the Chinese government to give it approval. The company has yet to publish the detailed results of their Phase 3 trial.

Acting on a tip, Channel 3 returned to the Riverpark after dark to find cars leaving the property. The people in those vehicles told Channel 3 family members or friends who were helping to administer the vaccines called to tell them there were extra doses and they should come to receive a dose.

“We have connections,” exclaimed one driver when asked how he was able to get a vaccine. The driver told Channel 3 all seven people in the vehicle received a vaccination. It’s not clear if those individuals met the CDC or the Health Department's criteria to receive this round of available vaccines.

Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:06 pmNot the take I was expecting.

Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:06 pm (2) in his opinion, there have been insufficient studies of how these COVID vaccines behave when they’re administered to people who have already been exposed to the virus and have developed anti-bodies;

Union County Freeholders COVID Response Team (just to piss off Smoove!) wrote:If someone’s had Covid-19 before and already has antibodies, should they still get the vaccine?

The recommendations right now are likely going to be that you still get the vaccine. The reason is that while being naturally infected with the virus gives you some degree of immunity and protection, it’s not necessarily targeted. The vaccines are optimized specifically to neutralize the virus and its infection and how it causes disease, whereas with your own natural infection, you will produce antibodies, but they’re more scattershot. They’ll target some of the parts of the virus that cause infection, but they’ll target other parts that don’t necessarily interfere with its reproduction cycle. So it’s very likely that most people, even if they have gotten sick with this, it would be useful for them to still get vaccinated.

Defiant wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:05 am As bad as we're doing in terms of vaccinating people, it looks like most of the world is doing worse than us. Per capita, we're the 4th most covid-vaccinated country (counting only single doses, of course) of the 20+ being tracked on this page:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Of the 265,000 doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that have been delivered to New Jersey, 72,657 residents had been given a shot by Thursday afternoon.

Despite months of planning, state officials said Wednesday a lack of personnel, along with logistics and timing issues were to blame.

"We are in the process of setting up hundreds of these [vaccination] locations. Some of them are going to be mega sites, and we have to schedule," Gov. Phil Murphy said at his briefing. "Remember, you need health care workers to do this. I'm not qualified to deliver these vaccines."

State Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said the rollout of the Moderna vaccine in particular has been slow because it was delivered just before Christmas.

"There were no vaccinations on the 25th, and on the other days people didn't want to be sick, they were concerned they were not going to feel well for the holidays," she said. "So it's ticked up again. We look at it, obviously, daily. We need to do some work on Moderna."

Persichilli said 57% of the state's stockpile of Pfizer doses had been administered as of Wednesday, calling it "one of the highest percentages that I've seen nationally."

Distribution has been difficult in other states as well. About 21% of the vaccines distributed nationally had been administered by Wednesday, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control.

Amid a sputtering vaccine rollout and fears of a new and potentially more transmissible variant of the coronavirus, Britain has quietly updated its vaccination playbook to allow for a mix-and-match vaccine regimen. If a second dose of the vaccine a patient originally received isn’t available, or if the manufacturer of the first shot isn’t known, another vaccine may be substituted, health officials said.

Some scientists say Britain is gambling with its new guidance. “There are no data on this idea whatsoever,” said John Moore, a vaccine expert at Cornell University. Officials in Britain “seem to have abandoned science completely now and are just trying to guess their way out of a mess.”

Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin has been recommended for conditional approval by the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) based on Phase 3 immunogenicity data for 24,000 volunteers after the first dose, and for 10,000 volunteers after the second dose, say top sources. The two shots are given 28 days apart. The data that has reportedly been submitted to the drug controller is, however, not in the public domain.

The vaccine became a source of controversy after a letter, signed by ICMR chief Balram Bhargava, came to light on 2 July. In the letter, he asked principal investigators to conclude all trial phases for a rollout by 15 August.

The ICMR later denied having set a deadline, saying, “Our internal communication is being misinterpreted. We only said that we envisage to have a vaccine by 15 August and it is not a deadline.”

On 28 December, ThePrint reported that Bharat Biotech advised principal investigators (PIs) to encourage volunteers by telling them that enrolling in the phase three trial could give them immunity against Covid-19.

“It may take many months for the subjects above the age of 50 years to be immunised for Covid-19 vaccine,” said the document given to the PIs, which added, “Hence, it will be advisable to participate in the Phase 3 Efficacy Trial for Covaxin and get vaccinated to protect yourself against Covid-19.”

On Saturday, the SEC recommended that the vaccine be given restricted emergency use access despite not having released any efficacy data — meaning, so far, any data proving the vaccine’s efficacy has not been published in the public domain, including any results of an interim analysis.

Bharat Biotech first applied for EUA on 7 December, and was asked by the government’s expert panel, appointed by the Drugs Controller General of India, to return with additional data from its ongoing phase 3 trial on several occasions.

As Indian regulators consider emergency approval of a Covid-19 vaccine from the Serum Institute of India, consumer groups are urging authorities to release key documents – such as the clinical trial protocol and study data – amid concerns over transparency and adverse events.

An independent panel of experts set by the Drug Controller General of India meets on Friday to consider the vaccine, which is the Serum Institute’s version of a shot originally co-developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. Earlier this month, the panel delayed its decision while waiting for U.K. regulators to grant emergency use for the AstraZeneca version, which occurred this week.

Consumer advocates, however, maintain Indian regulators should disclose more details before proceeding, especially since the Indian Council of Medical Research – a government entity – is providing support for a so-called bridging trial that is being conducted in the Indian population. Consumer groups are concerned that it is not clear whether the Serum Institute has submitted all safety and immunogenicity data from analyses of the bridging study to regulators, according to a letter sent today to government officials.

malchior wrote:Somehow this is a stopping point for him.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 2978293762

Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 4.28 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 3.17 million doses have been given,

Vaccination in New York City is basically only occurring during regular business hours. Very little on weekends. Almost none on holidays.

We are in a war-like situation. We need to be vaccinating TWENTY FOUR-SEVEN. We are losing precious time.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:01 pm https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/statu ... 1269649408

Vaccination in New York City is basically only occurring during regular business hours. Very little on weekends. Almost none on holidays.

We are in a war-like situation. We need to be vaccinating TWENTY FOUR-SEVEN. We are losing precious time.

100% agree, but I have no idea how to make it happen as the people that would be vaccinating the public are currently under siege.

Defiant wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:08 pmHow much training would be necessary to train someone to perform vaccinations?

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:16 pm

Defiant wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:08 pmHow much training would be necessary to train someone to perform vaccinations?

I don't even think we need to go down that route. From the ideas that Mitt Romney floated (that I linked in the other thread) we already have pools of trained people -- retired practitioners, medical students, veterinarians, former military with medical experience all sitting idle. I've never provided a shot to someone, but I have actual experience running community vaccination clinics; I'm also sitting idle and I know I'm not alone.

Providing the shot is clearly a critical element, but it's not the only reason we're already behind. At the end of the day, this effort requires actual manpower and coordination of resources.

The U.S. government is considering giving some people half the dose of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine in order to speed vaccinations, a federal official said on Sunday.

Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine program, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that officials were in talks with Moderna and the Food and Drug Administration about the idea. Moderna’s vaccine requires two injections.

“We know that for the Moderna vaccine, giving half of the dose to people between the ages of 18 and 55, two doses, half the dose, which means exactly achieving the objective of immunizing double the number of people with the doses we have,” Slaoui said.

“We know it induces identical immune response” to the full dose, he added.

Moderna and the FDA could not immediately be reached for comment.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it had administered 4,225,756 first doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Saturday morning and distributed 13,071,925 doses.

The U.S. has also approved a vaccine from Pfizer, which like Moderna’s requires two shots. Vaccinations have fallen far short of early targets, as officials had hoped to have 20 million people vaccinated by the end of the 2020.

Slaoui said he was optimistic vaccinations would continue to accelerate. He rejected the suggestion that officials should prioritize giving more people a single shot, rather than holding back doses for the second shot, saying that cutting Moderna vaccine doses in half was “a more responsible approach that would be based on facts and data.”

Slaoui said it would likely not be known until late spring whether vaccinated people can still spread the disease to others.

Max Peck wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:31 am Is there any data to indicate that this is in any way a good idea?