Octopus Overlords

An excellent analysis as to why Biden is going to win, countering every counter argument:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why- ... ing-to-win

That's good. I genuinely hope he's on target with his analysis - it's very well laid out. I keep telling myself I have PTSD and am unable to truly evaluate the data.

Grifman wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:07 pm An excellent analysis as to why Biden is going to win, countering every counter argument:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why- ... ing-to-win

Good article, but his rationale against “Trump/courts steal it” feels awfully thin.

That remains my largest fear, by a huge margin

Skinypupy wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:37 pm

Grifman wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:07 pm An excellent analysis as to why Biden is going to win, countering every counter argument:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why- ... ing-to-win

Good article, but his rationale against “Trump/courts steal it” feels awfully thin.

That remains my largest fear, by a huge margin

It's super thin and I'm really concerned about (post-)election day violence at this point. These people are parading around in convoys, intimidating folks, and the right is pumping them up with fraud is the only way we lose steroids. It really feels like we are on the edge of something here.

Republicans of stature have a responsibility to stand up right now against election interference whether official or unofficial.

I know we're supposed to like George W. Bush now for some reason, but he's an absolute coward for hiding behind aloof ex-presidential dignity.

They must be pissed they had to work on a Sunday.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:26 pm That's good. I genuinely hope he's on target with his analysis - it's very well laid out. I keep telling myself I have PTSD and am unable to truly evaluate the data.

Believe me, I have it too!

Everyday a new metaphor.

https://twitter.com/Olivianuzzi/status/ ... 4347445255

Low Energy!

Grifman wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:31 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:26 pm That's good. I genuinely hope he's on target with his analysis - it's very well laid out. I keep telling myself I have PTSD and am unable to truly evaluate the data.

Believe me, I have it too!

In the past two days I've had two Zoom sessions with friends and family, and all agree that our anxiety is off the charts. One of us will be watching election returns alone on Tuesday night, and we set up a telephone lifeline for her in case things go south. Sometimes misery needs company.

Holman wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:56 pm Republicans of stature have a responsibility to stand up right now against election interference whether official or unofficial.

I know we're supposed to like George W. Bush now for some reason, but he's an absolute coward for hiding behind aloof ex-presidential dignity.

He's PAINTING, dammit! Leave him alone!

malchior wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:32 pm https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 1402350592

He's using a bullhorn as his dog whistle now.

Biden maintains lead in Penn, but it has shrunk a bit:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-instit ... pa_110220/

Latest Economist forecast:

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/stat ... 21953?s=21

Yeah, but what are the projected totals at midnight on Tuesday?

Woah. Fivethirtyeight now has Biden "clearly favored to win the election", with the odds now 90% to 9%

Defiant wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:13 am Woah. Fivethirtyeight now has Biden "clearly favored to win the election", with the odds now 90% to 9%

I know this is different than when it was Trump vs Hillary, and I have hope, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Other biggy in my State is Jones vs Turberville for Senate. I hope there are enough intelligent folks in this state that sees how well Jones has done even if he is a democrat. Turberville is a huge idiot who knows nothing about politics, policies, laws, etc. But idiots tend to outnumber the intelligent people in this state. I always said Satan would win in this state if he was republican but I had a little hope when Doug Jones beat Roy Moore last time.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:06 am Yeah, but what are the projected totals at midnight on Tuesday?

I know PA will not reflect the accurate totals at midnight since they won't start counting early votes until the next day. Do we know which swing states are similar? I know Florida should have all the early votes tallied the day of, so I think we should at least have a decent idea about its winner.

NC should also have early votes counted on Election Day.

Election results timing, courtesy of 538.

Defiant wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:13 am Woah. Fivethirtyeight now has Biden "clearly favored to win the election", with the odds now 90% to 9%

To be clear that's a move from 89% to 90% over the past couple days, but 90% is the threshold for "clearly favored". They also have one last model run due tonight at midnight, which could swing things a point or two in either direction.

FWIW this is my current expectation for the final map in light of polls.



It's a little conservative for Biden relative to polling (he's currently favored in FL and GA as well, has decent shots at TX and IA), but I tend to assume that those states will be close enough that voting shenanigans may well swing things towards Trump.

We'll see, though!

It's still possible that all of our anxiety will have been for nothing and that this will go down like the clear win it looks to be. We might even know that before midnight.

If Trump loses Florida, he has no real path (barring an nearly impossible polling error in the upper Midwest). He could win PA/AZ/NC/IA/OH and still lose without Florida.

It's the same story for NC. Trump could win FL/PA/AZ/IA/OH and still lose without NC.

In fact it's the same story for AZ. Trump with FL/PA/NC/IA/OH but no AZ still gets Biden to 270.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:03 am

Defiant wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:13 am Woah. Fivethirtyeight now has Biden "clearly favored to win the election", with the odds now 90% to 9%

To be clear that's a move from 89% to 90% over the past couple days, but 90% is the threshold for "clearly favored". They also have one last model run due tonight at midnight, which could swing things a point or two in either direction.

It was 90% several times in the last day or so, and this is the first time I've seen "clearly" being added. I think it has to do with Trump dropping down to 9% (maybe it's got to be over 90%, and so 90-9 is the equivalent of 90.5%

Holman wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:09 am It's still possible that all of our anxiety will have been for nothing and that this will go down like the clear win it looks to be. We might even know that before midnight.

Oh, how wonderful that would be for my stress level.

I was lied to! But still with 80% in on election night in NC I'm hoping we'll have a pretty good idea where the race stands.

I think Trump will win Florida. The early voting is pretty evenly split between Dems and Repubs. And while you can't necessarily take that to mean much, I would still feel much more comfortable if Dems had a solid lead in that voting like they do in PA.

Defiant wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:11 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:03 am

Defiant wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:13 am Woah. Fivethirtyeight now has Biden "clearly favored to win the election", with the odds now 90% to 9%

To be clear that's a move from 89% to 90% over the past couple days, but 90% is the threshold for "clearly favored". They also have one last model run due tonight at midnight, which could swing things a point or two in either direction.

It was 90% several times in the last day or so, and this is the first time I've seen "clearly" being added. I think it has to do with Trump dropping down to 9% (maybe it's got to be over 90%, and so 90-9 is the equivalent of 90.5%

The top number obscures fraction of percentages, so possible that it was at 89.9% or something before.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1245131777

There are some disaster scenarios for Trump that result from relying heavily on election day turnout. Basically that Trump winds up getting weak turnout tomorrow due to a mix of COVID spikes + election day disruptions (ironically, probably heavily from Trump supporters) + Trump supporters thinking that he's doomed anyway.

We'll see, though. Everyone (who doesn't support Trump) needs to get out and vote.

Holman wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:09 am It's still possible that all of our anxiety will have been for nothing and that this will go down like the clear win it looks to be. We might even know that before midnight.

If Trump loses Florida, he has no real path (barring an nearly impossible polling error in the upper Midwest). He could win PA/AZ/NC/IA/OH and still lose without Florida.

It's the same story for NC. Trump could win FL/PA/AZ/IA/OH and still lose without NC.

In fact it's the same story for AZ. Trump with FL/PA/NC/IA/OH but no AZ still gets Biden to 270.

If Trump wins all of FL/PA/NC/IA/OH (and GA/TX) and Biden wins AZ (and the Clinton states) that gets us to the super delightful 269-269 tie. BUT Biden can win (270-268) if he wins either NE-2 or ME-2 (and I think he's favored in the former and the latter is a toss up).

Anyway, the upshot for Biden is that he has a lot of fallback plans for if he loses PA. Which also helps if Trumpian shenanigans manage to flip PA, as in a scenario where Biden is getting more votes in PA he should be winning in enough other states to endure PA shenanigans.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:41 am
If Trump wins all of FL/PA/NC/IA/OH (and GA/TX) and Biden wins AZ (and the Clinton states) that gets us to the super delightful 269-269 tie. BUT Biden can win (270-268) if he wins either NE-2 or ME-2 (and I think he's favored in the former and the latter is a toss up).

Anyway, the upshot for Biden is that he has a lot of fallback plans for if he loses PA. Which also helps if Trumpian shenanigans manage to flip PA, as in a scenario where Biden is getting more votes in PA he should be winning in enough other states to endure PA shenanigans.

Yeah, I was assuming a Biden win in NE-2 while Trump holds TX and GA.

Holman wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:44 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:41 am
If Trump wins all of FL/PA/NC/IA/OH (and GA/TX) and Biden wins AZ (and the Clinton states) that gets us to the super delightful 269-269 tie. BUT Biden can win (270-268) if he wins either NE-2 or ME-2 (and I think he's favored in the former and the latter is a toss up).

Anyway, the upshot for Biden is that he has a lot of fallback plans for if he loses PA. Which also helps if Trumpian shenanigans manage to flip PA, as in a scenario where Biden is getting more votes in PA he should be winning in enough other states to endure PA shenanigans.

Yeah, I was assuming a Biden win in NE-2 while Trump holds TX and GA.

One issue is that if Trump is winning PA / OH / IA, then there's a decent chance that he's winning in NE-2 as well.

Countdown to election:

1 Day!!!!!!

Trump is reduced to fortifying his bunker and having his minions attack bridges and buses.

One more dawn, one more day, one day more!*

Well maybe another week until we're definitely sure...

I won't breath easy until trump is out of office. Not just when he loses the election but when he is removed and we can begin to cleanse his stench from Democracy.

Jaymann wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:36 pm

Holman wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:17 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:37 pm

Jeff V wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:10 pm Bernie has been docile these past many months, so I imagine his future role is already determined. I hope the older party relics are given less visible appointments so younger folks have a chance to shine.

My wife just berated two of her cousins in Michigan who said they weren't voting because Bernie got screwed out of the nomination (again). She may have browbeaten them into voting, may not have. We're not sure.

My 14-year-old has decided that he's a communist ("You can't criticize what has never been tried, Dad!"), and he's fond of dumping on Biden/Harris as just more corporate capitalism.

I imagine most Bernie holdouts are somewhere similar.

Has he been reading Drazzil again?

Good lord I hope NO ONE under the age of 18 reads any of my stuff. It's badly written, poorly thought out and unfortunately correct.


I voted nililist it on my ballot and now I'm waiting to see where the rest of my fellow citizens fall. Fun times.

I'm so glad I was able to just drop off my ballet in a box. I'm hiding the next two days. I would have taken the whole week but I have too much going on with work.