Octopus Overlords

Yeah, that sounds an awful lot like the 'promise' that Collins got.

I, for one, welcome this development. Any delay will only being is closer to the truth, even if by a millimeter.

Once this delay happens, we'll see what happens.

tjg_marantz wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:03 pm I, for one, welcome this development. Any delay will only being is closer to the truth, even if by a millimeter.

Once this delay happens, we'll see what happens.

IF the delay happens. He says he has some sort of deal, but no one knows anything about it. Also, what I've generally heard is that for any expanded check to happen the White House has to order it - does Flake have a deal with the WH? Unlikely.

The good news is that Flake has some wiggle room to still vote no on the ultimately confirmation vote. Not that I expect that he'll take it, but he has it (and if more stuff blows up before the confirmation vote, that might push him to vote no).

Whatever assurances they gave Flake privately, I'll believe there will be an investigation when I see one.

Isn't Drumpf the one who has to order a followup investigation? If that's the case: good luck with that.

Flake knows he's a villain, and wants desperately to be a hero, but has no clue how to do it. What a coward.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:09 pm

tjg_marantz wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:03 pm I, for one, welcome this development. Any delay will only being is closer to the truth, even if by a millimeter.

Once this delay happens, we'll see what happens.

IF the delay happens. He says he has some sort of deal, but no one knows anything about it. Also, what I've generally heard is that for any expanded check to happen the White House has to order it - does Flake have a deal with the WH? Unlikely.

The good news is that Flake has some wiggle room to still vote no on the ultimately confirmation vote. Not that I expect that he'll take it, but he has it (and if more stuff blows up before the confirmation vote, that might push him to vote no).

His best chance at forcing an FBI investigation was to vote no today. I'm not sure how asking for an FBI investigation while you vote to move the process forward actually accomplishes anything.

msteelers wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:11 pm His best chance at forcing an FBI investigation was to vote no today. I'm not sure how asking for an FBI investigation while you vote to move the process forward actually accomplishes anything.

He may have an agreement with Murkowski and Collins to insist upon an investigation before moving forward. Let's wait and see before launching broadsides as hard as that may be. Sometimes people surprise you, rare as it may be.

Sepiche wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:09 pm Whatever assurances they gave Flake privately, I'll believe there will be an investigation when I see one.

Isn't Drumpf the one who has to order a followup investigation? If that's the case: good luck with that.

If he can't get his candidate through without one, well, what''s he going to do?

Watched the whole Flake thing at the gym. Needs to be seen to be believed. He calls for an investigation but says he'll vote Yes, Grassley calls for a vote to advance the nomination, Feinstein and others are confused about what the vote is for...

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:16 pm

Sepiche wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:09 pm Whatever assurances they gave Flake privately, I'll believe there will be an investigation when I see one.

Isn't Drumpf the one who has to order a followup investigation? If that's the case: good luck with that.

If he can't get his candidate through without one, well, what''s he going to do?

If you're not wary of promises from Republicans and this White House by now, I'm not sure what to tell you. They lost any benefit of the doubt long ago.

If Flake really wanted an investigation, as msteelers said, the path was to vote no in committee until the investigation is complete.

FWIW Nate Silver is more positive on Flake's move:

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:54 am Also, Bob Corker is a turd.

When I read

"I know it took courage..."

I see

One good thing about a week's delay is that all of this came to light in about a week and a half. There is the possibility that a week will bring more (and better) skeletons out of the closet.

Flake is an absolute coward. He doesn't need an agreement. He can just vote no.

Sepiche wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:22 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:16 pm

Sepiche wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:09 pm Whatever assurances they gave Flake privately, I'll believe there will be an investigation when I see one.

Isn't Drumpf the one who has to order a followup investigation? If that's the case: good luck with that.

If he can't get his candidate through without one, well, what''s he going to do?

If you're not wary of promises from Republicans and this White House by now, I'm not sure what to tell you. They lost any benefit of the doubt long ago.

In this case the promise would have to be fulfilled before the final vote took place. Pretty easy to hold them to a promise.

I'm sure the FBI is going to be thrilled to have this handed to them. Assuming it actually is. Well, maybe we'll all get a chance to see what corroborating evidence might turn up. I hope so.

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:15 pm

msteelers wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:11 pm His best chance at forcing an FBI investigation was to vote no today. I'm not sure how asking for an FBI investigation while you vote to move the process forward actually accomplishes anything.

He may have an agreement with Murkowski and Collins to insist upon an investigation before moving forward. Let's wait and see before launching broadsides as hard as that may be. Sometimes people surprise you, rare as it may be.

Called it. Murkowski just came out saying she backs Flake in asking for an FBI investigation. But we'll see if they stick to their guns after Trump starts coming after them.

The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Kurth wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:45 pm I'm sure the FBI is going to be thrilled to have this handed to them. Assuming it actually is. Well, maybe we'll all get a chance to see what corroborating evidence might turn up. I hope so.

I do wonder what the FBI can ultimately do with this. They almost certainly can't *prove* the allegations. They can theoretically either disprove or fail to disprove the allegations. Where the rubber meets the road is what kind of report the FBI produces, and who gets to see said report.

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:48 pm
The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Their only interest is getting another reliable conservative vote on the bench. Nothing else matters, including potentially losing the Senate this election as a result of this.

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:41 pm Flake is an absolute coward. He doesn't need an agreement. He can just vote no.

Him voting no in committee doesn't mean anything. McConnell could still bring it to the floor. For his talk to have teeth, though, he has to be ready to vote no on the floor if there's not an investigation. If there's one thing Flake has proven to have, teeth wouldn't be it.

However, now with Collins and Murkowski indicating the same, it seems like some kind of investigation will have to happen. I'm sure they're just looking for cover to vote yes, and a pro forma investigation that doesn't turn up anything new would be just what they want. On the other hand, Kavanaugh did not want an inquiry and Ford did, so maybe something else will turn up that harms him. If the investigation is on the level (big if).

As Blackhawk says, the delay does open the door for more stories emerging, and polls to be released indicating how the public reacted to the hearing. If Kavanaugh's numbers drop a lot (maybe unlikely in these polarized times), that might give those GOP senators pause.

I'm afraid what we're going to get is a hamstrung, time-constrained farce of an investigation. One that will almost certainly produce no conclusive results, particularly in regard to he said/she said. Then when it's time for a vote, Flake et al can vote aye with a clean conscience because they did their "due diligence" with this kangaroo court.

Captain Caveman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:52 pm If Kavanaugh's numbers drop a lot (maybe unlikely in these polarized times)

Some info regarding that, with lots of caveats:


(I think 1 day means the polls just on that day, while 3 day means the 3 day average)

Also, Kavanaugh would be the confirmation of the least favorable SC justice candidate.

YellowKing wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:53 pm I'm afraid what we're going to get is a hamstrung, time-constrained farce of an investigation. One that will almost certainly produce no conclusive results, particularly in regard to he said/she said. Then when it's time for a vote, Flake et al can vote aye with a clean conscience because they did their "due diligence" with this kangaroo court.

This seems like the likeliest outcome to me. I'd absolutely love it if something solid was turned up, because this dude seems like he has a huge closet full of skeletons. But it seems more likely that what they can turn up in a week, especially if there's pressure from the President and rest of the GOP to slow walk and limit the scope of the investigation, will be enough for the GOP senators looking for cover to say "well, the FBI investigated just like the Democrats wanted, and didn't find anything irrefutable and concrete either way, so I have to vote yes."

I guess what this really comes down to is if an investigation is ordered, how independent and thorough is the FBI in practice, and with limited time to work?

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:15 pm

msteelers wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:11 pm His best chance at forcing an FBI investigation was to vote no today. I'm not sure how asking for an FBI investigation while you vote to move the process forward actually accomplishes anything.

He may have an agreement with Murkowski and Collins to insist upon an investigation before moving forward. Let's wait and see before launching broadsides as hard as that may be. Sometimes people surprise you, rare as it may be.

Called it. Murkowski just came out saying she backs Flake in asking for an FBI investigation. But we'll see if they stick to their guns after Trump starts coming after them.

The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Well, you can impeach and then remove a supreme court justice. However, that that's only happened once in the history of our country should tell you how tough it is to do.

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:01 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:15 pm

msteelers wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:11 pm His best chance at forcing an FBI investigation was to vote no today. I'm not sure how asking for an FBI investigation while you vote to move the process forward actually accomplishes anything.

He may have an agreement with Murkowski and Collins to insist upon an investigation before moving forward. Let's wait and see before launching broadsides as hard as that may be. Sometimes people surprise you, rare as it may be.

Called it. Murkowski just came out saying she backs Flake in asking for an FBI investigation. But we'll see if they stick to their guns after Trump starts coming after them.

The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Well, you can impeach a supreme court judge. However, that that's only happened once in the history of our country should tell you how tough it is to do.

The requirement of a 2/3 vote in Congress (or something like that) pretty much makes impeachment of anyone, SCOTUS justice or President, a completely theoretical option in the current political atmosphere. There's no way, even in the bluest of blue waves, that the Dems get 2/3 in either house, and there's no way that any of GOP reps or senators break from their party to vote with the dems.

One thing the FBI can try to do is determine whether there were attempts by Team Kav to contact the witnesses and shape their responses. That wasn't 35 years ago but this week.

They can also determine whether Kav was in on the Ed Whelan thing, etc.

Defiant wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:51 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:48 pm
The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Their only interest is getting another Pwn the Libs vote on the bench. Nothing else matters, including potentially losing the Senate this election as a result of this.

FTFY!

All I know from watching yesterday was that it was rather obvious both Kavanaugh and the GOP didn't want the FBI involved in any capacity. Even when specifically questioned, Kavanaugh didn't answer yes or no regarding his support of an investigation. That alone tells me this needs to happen.

I imagine several potential witnesses are suddenly getting free, weeklong trips abroad.

Pyperkub wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:05 pm

Defiant wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:51 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:48 pm
The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Their only interest is getting another Pwn the Libs Clinton Deep State Believervote on the bench. Nothing else matters, including potentially losing the Senate this election as a result of this.

FTFY!

And I hate Clinton more than the next guy but going to that well is mind blowing to me. You'd think Bill and Hillary = Vlad according to this regime and the no small support base feedback loop took the Senate, stole the House, and wields the presidency like a loaded gun.

Look guys, you wanted an investigation, now you got one - maybe. Let's wait and see. There are a number of former high school and college classmates that have made public statements regarding Kavanaugh's testimony regarding his lack of veracity. Maybe some will come forward after they've seen his testimony and had a chance to reflect. Let's see what happens. You shouldn't get what you asked for, and then start whining about it. You start looking like Republicans

Chaz wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:04 pm

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:01 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:15 pm

msteelers wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:11 pm His best chance at forcing an FBI investigation was to vote no today. I'm not sure how asking for an FBI investigation while you vote to move the process forward actually accomplishes anything.

He may have an agreement with Murkowski and Collins to insist upon an investigation before moving forward. Let's wait and see before launching broadsides as hard as that may be. Sometimes people surprise you, rare as it may be.

Called it. Murkowski just came out saying she backs Flake in asking for an FBI investigation. But we'll see if they stick to their guns after Trump starts coming after them.

The Republicans really are foolish (yes, I know). Suppose Kavanuagh gets on the court and even more allegations come out - which is entirely possible. What are they going to do then? A further investigation only protects their own interests.

Well, you can impeach a supreme court judge. However, that that's only happened once in the history of our country should tell you how tough it is to do.

The requirement of a 2/3 vote in Congress (or something like that) pretty much makes impeachment of anyone, SCOTUS justice or President, a completely theoretical option in the current political atmosphere. There's no way, even in the bluest of blue waves, that the Dems get 2/3 in either house, and there's no way that any of GOP reps or senators break from their party to vote with the dems.

If it helps, it's only 2/3rds in the Senate. It's a majority vote in the House.

But of course you can get over 1/3rd of the Senate with something like 10% of all voters (if that), so.....

Wow, those are like "a tv reality star gets elected President of the United States" odds!

I for one do not want an investigation. There will be no justice for Ford, and that's the only reason to go forward with an investigation.

Grif, he's clearly not SCOTUS material. No investigation required.

Yet people are supposed to hang their hopes on an investigation? Ridiculous.

He's a lying partisan hack with neither the impartiality or presence of mind for the job.

When was the last time a nominee created this kind of split? Do you lay that at the feet of the Dems being unreasonable? It's because he's a terrible candidate for the highest office in the land. An office that once he's there the only way off is retirement or death.

But sure, let's investigate further, because up until now he's been an ideal nominee.

Grifman wrote:Look guys, you wanted an investigation, now you got one - maybe. Let's wait and see.

I think the push back is that none of us have any confidence that the investigation will be given the time or resources to be conducted in any way that is meaningful.

But I agree, let's wait and see. It's certainly a better outcome than his confirmation simply being pushed through. We've gone from the very narrow chance that the vote fails to a wider variety of chances that could derail the confirmation.

Chaz wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:03 pm November is going to be a test of how strong those gerrymandered levees actually are.

From what I read, it's more about Russian hackers vs. Chinese. The Chinese are considered more skilled, so...yay?

YellowKing wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:53 pm I'm afraid what we're going to get is a hamstrung, time-constrained farce of an investigation. One that will almost certainly produce no conclusive results, particularly in regard to he said/she said. Then when it's time for a vote, Flake et al can vote aye with a clean conscience because they did their "due diligence" with this kangaroo court.

Sounds like a plan.

Looks like a reply.

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:20 pm Looks like a reply.

Looks like snark.