[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Kurth]

Paging Smoove: one-on-one play dates for kids? Yes or no? I’m seeing conflicting “expert” advice on this.

What I'm seeing is that hanging out in an outdoor environment (going to a park for example) is low risk. Skiing (in theory) would be low risk except for the crowd situations at the base of the mountain, in the lodge, waiting for the chair lift, etc...

I'm on record for being aggressive with my recommendations, yes.

No play dates.

Thanks. One more for you: After we cancelled our Disney cruise scheduled for 3/20-3/25, we consoled ourselves with a 3 day get away at a secluded beach town on the Washington coast (well south of Seattle - Grays Harbor County). We rented a house, and the plan was to just head up there and chill out - walks on the beach, weather permitting, and lots of hanging out and playing cards/games. Unfortunately, a big part of the fun is also going out to the local bar/pub and the pizza place.

My current thinking is, we could still do the trip and just not go out. Eat our meals at home and just practice good social distancing up there. Any flaws in that plan?

[Unagi]

Let me guess the answer.

The flaw is you are still insisting on going out and hitting up another localities gas stations, grocery stores, etc.

It’s like two or three weeks here where we are asking everybody to understand the answer to all of this is mostly just ‘no’.

Why not play games with the whole family in the house this one year?


I’d also have some concern you could run into supply problems to feed yourself anywhere right now.

/shrug

[Zaxxon]

Yup, pretty much if it involves leaving your home and going anywhere but 'outside, well away from people' the answer's likely no.

[Smoove_B]

My current thinking is, we could still do the trip and just not go out. Eat our meals at home and just practice good social distancing up there. Any flaws in that plan?

In theory, sure it could work if you're all self-contained and not interacting with others. The only flaw is whether or not there will be domestic travel restrictions put in place this week making travel to/from more complicated. Could you be stopped, questioned and ordered to return home? Absolutely. Would that happen? I have no idea.

My tolerance for risk is probably much lower than a normal person, so I would not be leaving my home right now, my precious. But as long as you're social distancing (as a family) in a different location (and everyone understands what that means), I guess it could work? I would probably be doing more research to where we planned on going (see what the town is saying they're doing) and speak with rental agency to verify they're not encouraging people reschedule and offering a credit to do so. I'd be worried about having enough stuff and that all my stuff is at home. I have lots of...stuff.

My daughter's 14th birthday is tomorrow and my wife and I have been married 20 years this coming Wednesday. We might celebrate by sitting on the deck if the weather is nice.

[mori]

California is like the 4th state closing all restaurants, brewpubs, and taprooms. How is this possible" This is 'Merica. Did the President saying this is a national emergency give this power to politicians. Seems if I was a publican I could just say fuck it and be open for business as usual. Sure I would have to lawyer up for inevitable litigation, but at least I am still in business. Or just throw my hands up and say fuck it and shutter? This is as anti-commerce as the 18th Amendment.

[Smoove_B]

Read up on Jacobson Vs. Massachusetts. In short, the Supreme Court is on the side of public health and has been for over a century.

“Upon the principle of self-defense, of paramount necessity, a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members.” (From the Supreme Court ruling in Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 197 U.S. 11 (1905))

[Blackhawk]

It looks like the Rest of the World just passed China in cases.

[morlac]

Clinical trial for vaccine beginning tomorrow.

[mori]

Must be fallout from the Spanish-American War because the Spanish flu was more than a decade coming.

[Smoove_B]

Awesome story out of France:

LVMH is prepping its perfume and cosmetics production sites to manufacture hydroalcoholic gel in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, the company announced Sunday.

The factories that produce perfume and makeup for brands like Christian Dior and Givenchy will be making hand sanitizer starting on Monday.

The French luxury conglomerate will deliver the free disinfectant to French authorities and the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, the largest hospital system in Europe.

To quote Mr. Rogers:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, "Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.”

F-ing genius, he was. A true treasure.

[Zaxxon]

[Smoove_B]

Then we follow up with more sobering news stateside:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is urging people across the U.S. to cancel or postpone any events with 50 or more attendees for the next eight weeks to try to contain the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak, the agency said in revised guidance issued Sunday.

The CDC said individuals and organizations should reschedule large events and that gatherings of any size should be reconsidered unless organizers can protect vulnerable populations, ensure proper hand hygiene and social distancing.

“Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities,” the CDC said. It cited conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of events as examples of gatherings that should be postponed.

The guidance doesn’t apply to schools, universities or businesses, the CDC said.

[em2nought]

Must be fallout from the Spanish-American War because the Spanish flu was more than a decade coming.

I don't get it?

Interesting thing I didn't know until yesterday was that the Spanish Flu was the "Spanish" flu because Spain was the first to report on it. It originated in Kansas, and wasn't report on here because of the war effort.

[Kasey Chang]

Heard a rumor, allegedly from someone with connections to someone from San Francisco mayor's office of emergencies or something like that. Mayor Breed will be ordering shutdown of ALL restaurants and venues sometime in the coming week, probably Monday, only to-go orders will be allowed. No more dine-in, in order to head off any sort of public meetings. No idea how much to believe in this.

Amazon Prime now San Francisco is out of delivery slots for the next 48 hours.

[Smoove_B]

No idea how much to believe in this.

I will quote myself from earlier today:

but I'm telling everyone - widespread disruption is coming. Prepare.

[malchior]

My town just ordered any retail business with capacity over 75 people to close at 10 PM. 9 PM for any business with a liquor license. They just shut down public access to municipal buildings and non-essential municipal workers are not to report to the office.

[dbt1949]

Soon, everyone in the country is going to be an agoraphobic just like me.

[hepcat]

I’m supposed to be moving in two weeks. I wonder how all this will affect that.

[Zaxxon]

https://staythefuckhome.com/

[hitbyambulance]

No idea how much to believe in this.

I will quote myself from earlier today:

but I'm telling everyone - widespread disruption is coming. Prepare.

i anticipate this happening in Seattle in the next few days

[Daehawk]

Trouble with me is I 'could' wait a week to go get what I need but I know for a fact the truck delivers Tuesday and if I dont go then Im in the same spot I was in last Friday but with nothing here at home. So I really have to go out Tuesday even though I have enough to last until Friday.

[hepcat]

https://staythefuckhome.com/

Hopefully, since I’m simply moving to the apartment below me, my landlord will extend my current lease a month or two if it comes to that. I’ve got movers booked, but now I’m wondering if they’ll all be scaling back/stopping business for a few weeks.

I’m not trying to imply it’s all about me, I’m just understandably perplexed at how this will play out now.

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, that's a tough position to be in.

[LawBeefaroni]

We're limiting all non-emergent/urgent surgeries, postponing wellness and annual visits, and limiting on-campus contact. Like it is recommended not to go to someone's office just to talk to them and clinical areas are off limits except for clinical staff assigned there. Cafeteria is limited to essential staff.

Yet I still have to go in. That may change starting Tuesday when it's clear I have no one to do business with. OTOH every new and usually half-thought-through federal and CMS mandate (telemed, testing, waivers...) means I have to figure out what it means to the organization. And they just keep coming.

The preschool is difficult, lots of essential providers have kids there so having school supports the doctors but it may also be a way to get Covid-19 into their homes. It's open tomorrow but might be a moot by Tuesday if the governor adds preschools and daycare to the mandatory closure list.



So a double Macallan 18 and then I'm hitting the hay. Kids are anticipating the 3 week break. Wife is in the corner mumbling to herself something about cabin fever and how we barely survived the cold snap of winter '19.

[Kraken]

Must be fallout from the Spanish-American War because the Spanish flu was more than a decade coming.

I don't get it?

Interesting thing I didn't know until yesterday was that the Spanish Flu was the "Spanish" flu because Spain was the first to report on it. It originated in Kansas, and wasn't report on here because of the war effort.

Actually, it originated on a naval base in Boston. Otherwise, you're right: the Spanish didn't censor the news because they weren't wrapped up in the war, and so it became Spanish flu.

Tonight we started to hear rumors that MA might shut down restaurants and bars as early as tomorrow, so we moved up our last outing by a day. While we were finishing our meal word went around that everything ends on Wednesday. Patrons didn't get all social, because that's not how New Englanders roll. But we all sensed that we are in a fin de siecle. I got comped a beer and left a 30% tip, which is unheard-of for me. Being male, our server didn't qualify for the butt bonus, but he had a magnificent beard so I invented a beard bonus.

We promised to use the restaurant's Door Hub or whatever it's called to get takeout. If the clampdown lasts long enough, we might even actually do that. Our weekly night out is the high point of my week, and I'm going to miss it a lot. If I weren't in the high-risk group I'd go out again tomorrow and Tuesday, because who knows when our favorite places will reopen, if they survive at all? But we're over 60 and Wife already has a respiratory infection, so that's out. We're locked in as of now.

[msteelers]

I think I’m on the verge of panic. In January I started running an entertainment company for bars and restaurants. The company is doing great, it’s been established for nearly 10 years, and had enough weekly events where we could lose some of our biggest clients and still be ok.

How the hell do we survive losing everyone all at once?

Governor Desantis didn’t seem into the idea of closing all bars and restaurants. But even if everyone is allowed to stay open, trying to entice people to gather in one spot in large numbers is the exact opposite of what we should be doing. But if we don’t host events, we go out of business. And the CDC is recommending this for 8 weeks?

How do you find a job to pay the bills when you can’t leave your house?

Oh, and I found out this week that my wife is expecting our first child. And my dog was diagnosed with IVDD, and we almost had to put him down because he was suffering so much. Luckily we got that under control, but still. He’ll likely never fully recover. And holy crap I’m going to be a father.

So yeah. This past week I found out I’ll be raising a kid during the collapse of society, I might be heading towards financial ruin, and my dog almost died.

Can’t wait to see what happens this week.

[Kraken]

Without delving into the political ins and outs, there will be government support in some form for idled/unemployed workers. I hope it's robust, that it comes thru soon, and that it will get you through.

[Max Peck]

Britons could be forced to put their lives on hold for THREE MONTHS under coronavirus 'battle plan' that would see troops on the streets, police ignoring minor crime and patients turfed out of hospitals amid warning that one-in-five workers could go sick

As the number of confirmed UK cases passed 50, it revealed police could ignore low-level crime and troops could be deployed on the streets if officers are incapacitated through illness.
...
The report stresses that the response is still in the 'containment' phase, with just 39 confirmed cases in this country so far.

That article is well out of date. The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard currently shows 1395 cumulative confirmed cases in the UK, with 35 deaths and 21 recovered.

The impression that I have from the BBC is that the UK has not yet implemented many of the measures that we're seeing going into action in North America in the last few days.

Coronavirus: What is the 'delay' stage of the UK's plans?

The UK government is attempting to delay the spread of coronavirus and reduce the epidemic's peak (when the number of cases is highest).

It says that from Friday:

• All people with flu-like symptoms - a fever above 37.8C or a persistent cough - should self-isolate (stay at home, away from other people) for seven days
• Schools should not take trips abroad
• Older people and those with pre-existing health conditions should avoid cruises

Further measures will be taken as the number of coronavirus infections moves towards its peak:

• Everyone over 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period
• If someone in your home falls ill, the whole household will be told to isolate itself for 14 days

It is hoped these steps could significantly reduce the number of infections and cut deaths by up to a third.

Could schools close and public gatherings be banned?

The government has other powers it could use to protect people from infection:

• School closures and - once a new law is passed - allowing bigger class sizes if there are teacher shortages
• Restrictions on the use of public transport
• Stopping big gatherings
• Troops supporting the emergency services
• Police focusing on the most serious crimes and maintaining public order
• New legal powers to make people stay in quarantine

Some other countries like Italy have already taken some of these measures, but they tend to have more cases.

And officials in the UK have concerns about how effective they will be.

For example, while school closures could reduce the peak, forcing parents to stay at home would be a problem. It could reduce the number of health workers available, or mean grandparents - one of the at-risk groups - stepping in.

Maybe I'm missing something, but that sounds like the initial response is to do not much of anything for now. Waiting until they are approaching peak infections to take more meaningful action seems like it will work better for thinning the herd than it will for delaying the spread of the disease.

[hitbyambulance]

No idea how much to believe in this.

I will quote myself from earlier today:

but I'm telling everyone - widespread disruption is coming. Prepare.

i anticipate this happening in Seattle in the next few days

should have predicted 'by the end of this evening':

https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/12 ... 6129282048

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMnFRzVAAA ... =4096x4096

[LawBeefaroni]

And holy crap I’m going to be a father.

Congrats! It has a weird way of putting everything in perspective but also making things seem way more urgent than they are. Stay safe, stay ready, it's a great ride.



A shutdown like this is unprecedented. There have been promises of aid for people put out or work and companies with significant lost revenue. Hopefully it all comes through and you're on the receiving end if needed.

[Daehawk]

A husband and wife return to here in town from the UK today. They said they would have had no idea anything was going on if they didn't see the news. The only thing they saw was more hand sanitizer being used over there. Stores, crowds, bars, all the same and crowded. Said here though stores are empty. Said its weird. They also said they weren't tested at all.

[ImLawBoy]

Oh, and I found out this week that my wife is expecting our first child.

Congrats! Nice to have some good news in all of this!

[Zaxxon]

Oh, and I found out this week that my wife is expecting our first child.

Congrats! Nice to have some good news in all of this!

Seconded.

[gameoverman]

My current thinking is, we could still do the trip and just not go out. Eat our meals at home and just practice good social distancing up there. Any flaws in that plan?

I'm not a fear monger but I would not be willing to leave for some distant place. The problem is not so much that you'd go to the store up there, or spread the virus stopping for gas, it's that right now I'd consider the situation fluid. Nothing is certain right now. Travel, even within a state, could be shut down at any time. You could find yourself and family stuck up there for who knows how long. To me that wouldn't be worth the gamble.

There are probably parks near your home. You could do that same thing, I'm sure you could even have a picnic at one if you wanted to. I'm planning to go to a couple of local parks, they even have a lake, and just walk around. I can stay away from people yet still be out of the house. I understand that's not the same as getting away from it all but I think that's the point. There is no getting away from it all until further notice.

[Skinypupy]

A couple in our neighborhood contracted Mrs Skinypupy months ago to do their wedding cake. Their reception is scheduled for Tuesday evening.

I was a little surprised to see her starting to bake tonight. Said she checked with the couple and the reception is still a go. They have apparently put out a communication that they “will be accepting elbow bumps and air hugs only”, but everything’s still going forward as planned.

I was honestly shocked that a) they would still be willing to do it and b) the reception center was even allowing them to do it. Thankfully, she can just drop the cake off before things even start and then get out. Even that makes me super uncomfortable.

[msteelers]

I also DJ weddings. We had two events this weekend, but the rest that we have on the books for April are likely going to be postponed. One already delayed it an entire year, and another bride emailed me this evening about potential dates in the fall.

The venue I was at yesterday canceled all upcoming events. I’m sure more venues will take the decision out of the bride and grooms hands.

[Kurth]

My current thinking is, we could still do the trip and just not go out. Eat our meals at home and just practice good social distancing up there. Any flaws in that plan?

I'm not a fear monger but I would not be willing to leave for some distant place. The problem is not so much that you'd go to the store up there, or spread the virus stopping for gas, it's that right now I'd consider the situation fluid. Nothing is certain right now. Travel, even within a state, could be shut down at any time. You could find yourself and family stuck up there for who knows how long. To me that wouldn't be worth the gamble.

There are probably parks near your home. You could do that same thing, I'm sure you could even have a picnic at one if you wanted to. I'm planning to go to a couple of local parks, they even have a lake, and just walk around. I can stay away from people yet still be out of the house. I understand that's not the same as getting away from it all but I think that's the point. There is no getting away from it all until further notice.

I agree. Not worth the risk. My biggest concern was always crossing the OR/WA border and being unable to get back in. Seems unlikely, but who knows? Especially given how fast things are moving and Governor Inslee’s announcement tonight about WA lockdown.

[hitbyambulance]

i'm on this amateur radio net right now and a aged 50-something operator is describing the covid-19 symptoms they're currently experiencing. it sounds... pretty unpleasant (including the 'increasingly aggressive chest pains'). they also caught it just by standing in front of a clearly sick person for a few seconds

from the wikipedia article on the disease ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 ) :

"Long-term health consequences

On 12 March, the Hong Kong Hospital Authority announced they had found a drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in two to three of around a dozen people who had recovered from the disease. The people who recovered gasp if they walk more quickly. Lung scans of the nine people infected at Princess Margaret Hospital suggested they had sustained organ damage."

[Kasey Chang]

The guy who tried to gouge 17000 pieces of sanitizer just gave them all away to avoid charges of price gouging. Apparently 2/3rd went to a local church, and the rest were taken by state authorities, some were returned to Kentucky where they were originally purchased, to be distributed.

Apparently someone doxed him and came knocking on his door Saturday night. Amazon and eBay both suspended him, and even his storage locker landlord kicked him out. And Tennesse AG's office is investigating him.

Guy who hoarded 17700 bottles of sanitizer just gave them away

[Kasey Chang]

Germany is closing its borders, in addition to several Latin American countries. France is about to panic right after Italy.

EDIT: NYT piece about "Numbering the Trump lies about COVID-19" was a real eyeopener about how many things we failed to do to cut off COVID-19, despite public warnings from experts. I'm not going to repeat the Trump lies, because I never liked him.

Trump Administration was warned back in late January that this will get bad, VERY BAD. by ex-CDC head and other experts. Nothing happened.

The first CDC COVID-19 test kits launched in early February were flawed, but Trump Administration didn't want to import and license the working one from WHO. It also failed to suspend regulations that would have allowed private labs and hospitals from creating their own tests.

And basically, the entire Trump Administration could have acted more than a month earlier, but NOTHING HAPPENED, because Trump wants to pretend it's nothing to worry about.