Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

[xwraith]

I just took a look at GME Feb 19 300 put prices -- $156 -- and IV > 500

LOL

[xwraith]

Now I'm thinking buying puts... there is no way that this could go on for more than a month... right?

[Carpet_pissr]

Someone at work linked me to a site scraper for reddit investment threads and scores them. It is unfortunately on my work computer and I can't get the link without manually eyescraping it over. In any case, it appears they are attacking large short positions in retail which makes sense. They've been all shorted to hell. However, eventually people are going to sell out of these positions and may find there isn't anyone buying and the prices will just collapse. It's madness.

Scores them on probability of being the next target? I'd like to see that if you can access it when you get home. Though I guess you could also look up GME and the others, and see if there is any pattern to the madness (any order? Retail stocks with largest short positions, ranked by....?)

[LawBeefaroni]

KOSS is at $66.

About to take everything to cash.

[Carpet_pissr]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

The only thing I can think of as a counter-argument is that now that the company has access to all this new capital...they can get smart and pivot completely to a business model that ISN'T dying/dead. I mean, it really has the potential for a smart CEO to take advantage of the madness by doing something big that COULD actually make the company worth close to what it's currently trading at. Some day.

[pr0ner]

It's truly insane that stocks like GME, AMC, and KOSS (over 400% at the moment for KOSS is unbelievable) are up so big today while the broader market as a whole is down 2-3%.

Also, something strikes me as fishy if KOSS's high for the day was $69.69.

[malchior]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought. In the end, you run out of margin runway which is what this attack is going after in the end. Can you force them up against a wall and force them to close out? Or possibly run into their internal risk metrics that require them to close out. For bystanders, it is playing with fire.

The only thing I can think of as a counter-argument is that now that the company has access to all this new capital...they can get smart and pivot completely to a business model that ISN'T dying/dead.

There is not really any new "usable" capital. They theoretically have more borrowing capacity and other tools but no financial institution is going to care about these valuations.

I mean, it really has the potential for a smart CEO to take advantage of the madness by doing something big that COULD actually make the company worth close to what it's currently trading at. Some day.

The big problem is this becomes a major distraction from the business of fixing their companies. The former NASDAQ President was saying the CEO is now forced to address this situation which takes their eye off whatever plan they were actually trying to execute.

[Isgrimnur]

Are we really operating on the assumption that the CEO is 100% utilized and all unexpected events come with an opportunity cost?

[Carpet_pissr]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

[LawBeefaroni]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

It's very difficult to short now (huge margin requirements) and puts are way too expensive. Not sure how one would go about shorting.

[Zaxxon]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

It's very difficult to short now (huge margin requirements) and puts are way too expensive. Not sure how one would go about shorting.

Not to mention that there are more shares short than there are shares. Not a place I'd be comfortable betting cash monies, even if I agree that it's coming down at some point.

[LawBeefaroni]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

It's very difficult to short now (huge margin requirements) and puts are way too expensive. Not sure how one would go about shorting.

Not to mention that there are more shares short than there are shares. Not a place I'd be comfortable betting cash monies, even if I agree that it's coming down at some point.

I don't think that's the case now, Melvin and Citron have covered.

[Carpet_pissr]

Good points. I didn't go so far as to actually put an order in to see what the details were, so maybe it's completely moot.

[pr0ner]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

It's very difficult to short now (huge margin requirements) and puts are way too expensive. Not sure how one would go about shorting.

Not to mention that there are more shares short than there are shares. Not a place I'd be comfortable betting cash monies, even if I agree that it's coming down at some point.

I don't think that's the case now, Melvin and Citron have covered.

According to a group chat I'm in, that's "fake news". The exact message is "Yep SI/float is over 100% still. Fake news by the angry hedge funds."

[LawBeefaroni]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

It's very difficult to short now (huge margin requirements) and puts are way too expensive. Not sure how one would go about shorting.

Not to mention that there are more shares short than there are shares. Not a place I'd be comfortable betting cash monies, even if I agree that it's coming down at some point.

I don't think that's the case now, Melvin and Citron have covered.

According to a group chat I'm in, that's "fake news". The exact message is "Yep SI/float is over 100% still. Fake news by the angry hedge funds."

Maybe but I've seen enough pumps in my time. The evil short bogeyman is one of the oldest.




KOSS $86 AH.

[LawBeefaroni]

Me, I'm done for the day after flipping KOSS. Back to work..

My sell this morning was $3.95 for half. Put limit in for the other half at $4.49. My phone blew up with a bunch of partial fills around 2pm. All out.

It just hit $5.87. That's around $5K left on the table.

KOSS $95.

Make that $270K.

I get a vague queasiness looking at that but it's nothing compared to what is probably coming for a lot of reets and even some "pros."

[pr0ner]

Why would we all NOT be shorting GME at this point? Not a rhetorical question. I'm VERY tempted. At some point it will come back down to reasonable levels. Right?

That is what the hedge fund guys all thought.

That's what they thought when they originally went to short these stocks, is that what you meant? Because the math has...changed since then.

It's very difficult to short now (huge margin requirements) and puts are way too expensive. Not sure how one would go about shorting.

Not to mention that there are more shares short than there are shares. Not a place I'd be comfortable betting cash monies, even if I agree that it's coming down at some point.

I don't think that's the case now, Melvin and Citron have covered.

According to a group chat I'm in, that's "fake news". The exact message is "Yep SI/float is over 100% still. Fake news by the angry hedge funds."

Maybe but I've seen enough pumps in my time. The evil short bogeyman is one of the oldest.




KOSS $86 AH.

Oh, I don't actually believe the person who said that. He's all in on the GME $1000 idea. Just giving you an idea of what the people who actually went into GME (today!) think right now.

[Carpet_pissr]

.

There is not really any new "usable" capital. They theoretically have more borrowing capacity and other tools but no financial institution is going to care about these valuations. .

“AMC shares rose 301% Wednesday to nearly $20 apiece. In November, the stock was trading under $3 per share as the movie theater industry continued to be slammed by the coronavirus pandemic.

The company revealed in an SEC filling on Monday that it had raised $917 million of new equity and debt capital since December, which is enough financing to keep the company operating well into 2021.”

[pr0ner]

[malchior]

.

There is not really any new "usable" capital. They theoretically have more borrowing capacity and other tools but no financial institution is going to care about these valuations. .

“AMC shares rose 301% Wednesday to nearly $20 apiece. In November, the stock was trading under $3 per share as the movie theater industry continued to be slammed by the coronavirus pandemic.

The company revealed in an SEC filling on Monday that it had raised $917 million of new equity and debt capital since December, which is enough financing to keep the company operating well into 2021.”

That is almost certainly their treasury carrying out financing activities. However, the run up / run down in share price isn't going to help them much. At least I'd hope not. The banks / bond buyers would be looking at cash flow / capital management / reasonable valuations / etc. Not its current state in the casino though maybe they issued some shares in the madness though that'd be hard to time.

[LordMortis]

From March of last year



Same talk about what they were doing to Tesla in a down market and then extrapolate.

[malchior]

Interesting discussion about this topic today focused somewhat on WSB and GME. It's a long segment but by the end of it I think Chamath has staked out an interesting theoretical position. If I'm following him - his thesis is that the Hedge Funds opened themselves up to an attack that the regulators maybe should not have let happen in the first place (i.e. all the Hedges holding short positions that were ~140% of the shares in existence). He said if you want a free market this retail stuff happening is the consequence of the hedges taking these risk positions. I'm not 100% sold but there are ideas to think about here.

[malchior]

I missed it but Reddit forced /r/wallstreetbets to go private - they got a warning about not moderating stringently enough. Their discord was also shut down. That was fast. Capital strikes back.

[LawBeefaroni]

I missed it but Reddit forced /r/wallstreetbets to go private - they got a warning about not moderating stringently enough. Their discord was also shut down. That was fast. Capital strikes back.

I heard it's back up but maybe view only. It got overrun with pumpndumpers and mods couldn't keep up so they closed it down.

Interesting discussion about this topic today focused somewhat on WSB and GME. It's a long segment but by the end of it I think Chamath has staked out an interesting theoretical position. If I'm following him - his thesis is that the Hedge Funds opened themselves up to an attack that the regulators maybe should not have let happen in the first place (i.e. all the Hedges holding short positions that were ~140% of the shares in existence). He said if you want a free market this retail stuff happening is the consequence of the hedges taking these risk positions. I'm not 100% sold but there are ideas to think about here.

That's the simple version. The more accurate one is that Citadel, Blackrock and the rest of the usual suspects made 80% of the profit and flew behind WSB radar shadow. When there are congressional hearings in a year, WSB and Reddit will be in the hotseat and Citadel, et al, will be advising the legislators.



Blockchain trading, see Tzero, is the solution. But then the pros can't play their games.

[malchior]

That's the simple version. The more accurate one is that Citadel, Blackrock and the rest of the usual suspects made 80% of the profit and flew behind WSB radar shadow. When there are congressional hearings in a year, WSB and Reddit will be in the hotseat and Citadel, et al, will be advising the legislators.



Blockchain trading, see Tzero, is the solution. But then the pros can't play their games.

I'm tracking. I'm with you on the blockchain trading aspect - an "open order book" would be terrific. Even if it was delayed and you could audit it later. That's why it'll be fought against tooth and nail I expect.

The Blackrock/Citadel angle doesn't really counter the thesis either. I think the follow up would be if you don't want retail throwing up a smokescreen for these shenanigans - barring miraculous transparency - then we should not enable this level of systemic risk in the first place.

[Zaxxon]

[LawBeefaroni]

GME $460 premarket. I think this is the part where the short squeeze is over and people are just piling in expecting it to continue to run. Big/smart money will exit.

Lots of day traders taking advantage of all the froth too. I know one who jokingly said he broke his mouse button yesterday making so many trades.

[LordMortis]

R&P ahead. Maybe I should find the viral economy thread instead...

Spoiler:

As I wake up to see the up up up against short sellers in an otherwise slipping market, I'm becoming less and less certain of my feelings on this. The push back against these YOLOers is getting stronger and stronger and these conservative establishment destroyers over the last decade are now clamoring for regulation. No one clawed back against all the money that went to these market makers for the last 10 months and and the last 12 years as the billionaire class literally took control of government in 2016 but now we want to protect the YOLOers from themselves as they attack the billionaire class. As I learn more and more WSB, the bets part has always been key, it's founded in HOLD MY BEER! mixed with the expletive deleted sitting at home learning how billionaires who have never done anything but work on wallstreet make their money while finding ways to pay less and less back into the system the empowers them.

These people, in no small amount (you can't blanket everyone when it comes to millions, especially when there are pumpers and dumpers among them, though I don't think the pumpers and dumpers can control this), seem to know their going to get hurt but they're enjoying the ride and in some small way doing what Occupy couldn't and what Congress and the SEC won't.

Damned ignorant socialists attacking the free market with their collectivist collusion against free enterprise. Money was never meant to be used in this way.

[malchior]

R&P ahead. Maybe I should find the viral economy thread instead...

Spoiler:

As I wake up to see the up up up against short sellers in an otherwise slipping market, I'm becoming less and less certain of my feelings on this. The push back against these YOLOers is getting stronger and stronger and these conservative establishment destroyers over the last decade are now clamoring for regulation. No one clawed back against all the money that went to these market makers for the last 10 months and and the last 12 years as the billionaire class literally took control of government in 2016 but now we want to protect the YOLOers from themselves as they attack the billionaire class. As I learn more and more WSB, the bets part has always been key, it's founded in HOLD MY BEER! mixed with the expletive deleted sitting at home learning how billionaires who have never done anything but work on wallstreet make their money while finding ways to pay less and less back into the system the empowers them.

These people, in no small amount (you can't blanket everyone when it comes to millions, especially when there are pumpers and dumpers among them, though I don't think the pumpers and dumpers can control this), seem to know their going to get hurt but they're enjoying the ride and in some small way doing what Occupy couldn't and what Congress and the SEC won't.

Damned ignorant socialists attacking the free market with their collectivist collusion against free enterprise. Money was never meant to be used in this way.

Good idea - I responded over in that thread.

[LawBeefaroni]

R&P ahead. Maybe I should find the viral economy thread instead...

Spoiler:

As I wake up to see the up up up against short sellers in an otherwise slipping market, I'm becoming less and less certain of my feelings on this. The push back against these YOLOers is getting stronger and stronger and these conservative establishment destroyers over the last decade are now clamoring for regulation. No one clawed back against all the money that went to these market makers for the last 10 months and and the last 12 years as the billionaire class literally took control of government in 2016 but now we want to protect the YOLOers from themselves as they attack the billionaire class. As I learn more and more WSB, the bets part has always been key, it's founded in HOLD MY BEER! mixed with the expletive deleted sitting at home learning how billionaires who have never done anything but work on wallstreet make their money while finding ways to pay less and less back into the system the empowers them.

These people, in no small amount (you can't blanket everyone when it comes to millions, especially when there are pumpers and dumpers among them, though I don't think the pumpers and dumpers can control this), seem to know their going to get hurt but they're enjoying the ride and in some small way doing what Occupy couldn't and what Congress and the SEC won't.

Damned ignorant socialists attacking the free market with their collectivist collusion against free enterprise. Money was never meant to be used in this way.

If only it were as simple as "all the billionaires are getting burned and all the little guys are winning.".

A handful of hedge funds are getting smoked. Citadel, Robinhood, Blackrock, etc are all making money. Professional day traders are making money. Even some WSB instigators are probably making money. But the little guys adhering to the call to hold on and don't let the man take your shares haven't made a dime. Not until they sell. And the whole thing is founded on them not selling.

[xwraith]

So...uhh...I bought a GME put (APR 16 @ $60) for $23.79

This is pretty much a bet (with money I can afford to lose) that the stock is going to crash and crash hard into at least the $20 range. I'll only make money via intrinsic value as the huge IV is what's driving the option price and once the stock dives I bet IV will collapse. I bought farther out as to give time for things to happen.

[pr0ner]

GME $448, KOSS $144

[Carpet_pissr]

I looked up retail stocks with high short interest. If this attack continues, I’ve got to believe that Tanger Outlets is going to be on the agenda at some point. SKT

I never saw the WSB Reddit so I don’t know if you can see them discussing next targets, but damn that one sure seems to fit the MO.

Also, did they give up on Dillard’s? Another perfect one. That one launched like the others, but fizzled pretty quickly.

Fascinating from a human behavior perspective (maybe, but probably just some mundane boring reason )

[Carpet_pissr]

Doh! She stole my idea, but came up with a more clever name!

[LawBeefaroni]

I looked up retail stocks with high short interest. If this attack continues, I’ve got to believe that Tanger Outlets is going to be on the agenda at some point. SKT

I never saw the WSB Reddit so I don’t know if you can see them discussing next targets, but damn that one sure seems to fit the MO.

Also, did they give up on Dillard’s? Another perfect one. That one launched like the others, but fizzled pretty quickly.

Fascinating from a human behavior perspective (maybe, but probably just some mundane boring reason )

I think everyone is looking for their next target and because of that you don't have to be the next target to get a bump. Anything that fits the mold is seeing speculation. I just don't think they have enough capital to do this forever.


The trading group I'm in has some guys who specialize in low float, low volume stocks. That's how I found KOSS a month ago. We've seen a ton of unusual activity in everything on our screens. High short interest means more activity but isn't a requirement.

[Zaxxon]

Be sure to tell us about the next KOSS. That was a great find.

[LawBeefaroni]

Be sure to tell us about the next KOSS. That was a great find.

I thought it was great when I sold for a 40% gain. Shows what I know.

It was in the speculative bucket though so don't like to pump those bit I'll throw some more out with caveats as I get into them..



DOGE coin up 70% on WSB chatter.

[LordMortis]

Be sure to tell us about the next KOSS. That was a great find.

That's what I'm saying and it's not his first or second or third. I don't understand them but I love to follow them. I even have 100 shares of AOUT now.

[Zaxxon]

[LawBeefaroni]

Be sure to tell us about the next KOSS. That was a great find.

That's what I'm saying and it's not his first or second or third. I don't understand them but I love to follow them. I even have 100 shares of AOUT now.

Some of these low floaters, some days were the only ones in the market. Like we are small potatoes bit make up 50-100% of the volume. That why I'm cautious about mentioning them them.
I could literally see if someone is trying to buy on a recommendation. Whenn I find wider traded things like AOUT or POWW I give them a mention.



GME PM high of like $512, low in the mid-$200s. Currently low $300s. That's people getting ganked.