Octopus Overlords

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:38 am What is a no fly zone? Does it mean if any Russian aircraft ,missal, or drone that enters air space will be shot down?

Yep.

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:38 amDoes it mean all aircraft from either side will be shot down?

Nope

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:38 amDoes this include medical, evacuation and supply transport?

Who's?
Russia's? Yeah, probably.
Poland's? Nope.

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:38 amI don't think you could have that with super powers. It would basically mean you are becoming an enemy of Russia and expect to have your air bases and defensive air assets attacked in your country or more.

That's the repercussions that would clearly come from engaging Russia's airforce... and yeah, since they have nukes and have declared they are ready to use them if needed, everyone is afraid to engage them.

Yeah, that's the whole issue with a no fly zone. It doesn't mean anything unless you are willing to shoot down Russian military jets. And obviously shooting down Russian jets is an act of war. So while declaring a no fly zone is not a declaration of war by itself, it would create 99.99% chance of war with Russia (unless Russia completely punks out and stops flying planes over Ukraine, which is not impossible but would be super unlikely).

Ukraine can probably hold its own on the ground. Russian artillery will still pummel cities but they will have a tough time actually taking them.

But with air superiority and cruise missiles flying free they have a decided advantage.

Yeah, I want Biden (and our allies) to be aggressive in giving Ukraine military supplies. I get that Russia definitely won't like that, and there's *some* risk of war there, but like...we've already crossed the Rubicon here in terms of pissing off Russia. So I don't think there's a particularly compelling reason to hold back on military supplies.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:46 pm I'll never forget that Hillary was telling us Trump was a Russian puppet long before any of us really knew wtf she was talking about.

I mean Mitt Romney was trying to say that Russia was a threat during the 2012 campaign and got brushed off as "meh" by Obama, so it's not like people in this country have taken Russia really seriously for a while.

raydude wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:40 am Eh, we're within 10 miles of the White House. I have no illusions of being in a position to suddenly need potassium iodide.

Pretty much part and parcel for those of us living near DC. That being said, things that are either out of my control or are very unlikely to happen don't keep me up at night.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:16 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:46 pm I'll never forget that Hillary was telling us Trump was a Russian puppet long before any of us really knew wtf she was talking about.

I mean Mitt Romney was trying to say that Russia was a threat during the 2012 campaign and got brushed off as "meh" by Obama, so it's not like people in this country have taken Russia really seriously for a while.

Yeah, that's true, and McCain was right about Putin for awhile too (characterizing Putin as a KGB guy through and through). But in this case Hillary was a little more specific - not just that Russia was a significant geopolitical threat, but talking specifically about the curious links between Russia and Trump.

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:39 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:21 am Kremlin Says Neutral Ukraine With Army Could Be Compromise
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kremlin- ... 43248.html
(Bloomberg) -- A proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral country but retain its own armed forces “could be viewed as a certain kind of compromise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday, hinting at possible progress in peace negotiations.

"We will stop if you agree not to join NATO"?

What game is this? Russia just wants time to do a do-over. Ukraine should be free to do whatever it can peacefully achieve for itself. Fuck Putin and his tyranny - this man needs to be put down, not given a cookie.

As I understand it, even if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, there is nothing to stop it from purchasing military hardware from the West. For example, they could purchase Patriot anti-missile systems without being part of NATO, correct?

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:30 am

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:16 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:46 pm I'll never forget that Hillary was telling us Trump was a Russian puppet long before any of us really knew wtf she was talking about.

I mean Mitt Romney was trying to say that Russia was a threat during the 2012 campaign and got brushed off as "meh" by Obama, so it's not like people in this country have taken Russia really seriously for a while.

Yeah, that's true, and McCain was right about Putin for awhile too (characterizing Putin as a KGB guy through and through). But in this case Hillary was a little more specific - not just that Russia was a significant geopolitical threat, but talking specifically about the curious links between Russia and Trump.

That's a good point.

raydude wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:31 am

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:39 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:21 am Kremlin Says Neutral Ukraine With Army Could Be Compromise
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kremlin- ... 43248.html
(Bloomberg) -- A proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral country but retain its own armed forces “could be viewed as a certain kind of compromise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday, hinting at possible progress in peace negotiations.

"We will stop if you agree not to join NATO"?

What game is this? Russia just wants time to do a do-over. Ukraine should be free to do whatever it can peacefully achieve for itself. Fuck Putin and his tyranny - this man needs to be put down, not given a cookie.

As I understand it, even if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, there is nothing to stop it from purchasing military hardware from the West. For example, they could purchase Patriot anti-missile systems without being part of NATO, correct?

If we deign to allow such tech to non-NATO allies. They would probably have to have MNNA status.

So Russia has broken past agreements with Ukraine and this has been the result. I see no problem with Ukraine negotiating whatever they can now to put a stop to the fighting. Join NATO a little down the road even if they agreed to stay neutral.

My hope would be peace now and Putin removed from power a little down the road. Would love for it to happen first which then leads to peace, but not sure how likely that is

Have any reputable journalists done digging into whether there are any links between Tucker Carlson and the Kremlin? It's easy to get too far afield from direct evidence on this stuff, but at the same time...most right wing folks have at least moderated their Putin fanboyism in response to Putin getting incredibly unpopular with the broader American public, but Tucker sure doesn't seem to be.

raydude wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:31 am

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:39 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:21 am Kremlin Says Neutral Ukraine With Army Could Be Compromise
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kremlin- ... 43248.html
(Bloomberg) -- A proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral country but retain its own armed forces “could be viewed as a certain kind of compromise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday, hinting at possible progress in peace negotiations.

"We will stop if you agree not to join NATO"?

What game is this? Russia just wants time to do a do-over. Ukraine should be free to do whatever it can peacefully achieve for itself. Fuck Putin and his tyranny - this man needs to be put down, not given a cookie.

As I understand it, even if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, there is nothing to stop it from purchasing military hardware from the West. For example, they could purchase Patriot anti-missile systems without being part of NATO, correct?

We give them Javelin missiles now , but Patriot missiles I’m not sure about the rules for. I don’t know where or how people draw lines with this arms dealing.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:46 pm Have any reputable journalists done digging into whether there are any links between Tucker Carlson and the Kremlin? It's easy to get too far afield from direct evidence on this stuff, but at the same time...most right wing folks have at least moderated their Putin fanboyism in response to Putin getting incredibly unpopular with the broader American public, but Tucker sure doesn't seem to be.

I can’t decide if he just feels that reversing course would be a sign of weakness, or if it’s just what being on the payroll looks like. Pretty certain it’s the latter.

I don’t know how it’s not a massive turn off to his viewers or advertisers at this point

Unless the Ukrainian military position is much stronger than I think you figure they would agree to a deal centered around peace for a 'neutrality' pledge. Ending the bloodshed and preserving independence would be a big win, and you figure the pledge wouldn't actually stop Ukraine from eventually joining NATO if its situation improves down the line.

I imagine the bigger issue is that presumably (from Russia's perspective) a deal along these lines would essentially leave Crimea and the separatist regions as part of Russia.

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:56 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:46 pm Have any reputable journalists done digging into whether there are any links between Tucker Carlson and the Kremlin? It's easy to get too far afield from direct evidence on this stuff, but at the same time...most right wing folks have at least moderated their Putin fanboyism in response to Putin getting incredibly unpopular with the broader American public, but Tucker sure doesn't seem to be.

I can’t decide if he just feels that reversing course would be a sign of weakness, or if it’s just what being on the payroll looks like. Pretty certain it’s the latter.

I don’t know how it’s not a massive turn off to his viewers or advertisers at this point

He could be betting on a Trump return to power via the 2024 election and figures he might as well stay the course at this point, I suppose.

I have to wonder how much of Putin's ego is involved in making ANY kind of compromise. It seems like he started this war cocksure he was going to come out the other side with complete victory within a matter of days. Now the overwhelming majority of the world hates him and he still hasn't taken their capital. Making any kind of compromise to end the war may seem like a blow to his ego at this point.

hepcat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:06 pm I have to wonder how much of Putin's ego is involved in making ANY kind of compromise. It seems like he started this war cocksure he was going to come out the other side with complete victory within a matter of days. Now the overwhelming majority of the world hates him and he still hasn't taken their capital. Making any kind of compromise to end the war may seem like a blow to his ego at this point.

He'll withdraw Russian troops, give back all territory and allow Ukraine to join NATO if everyone agrees that he's he smartest, coolest, and toughest leader on the planet. Also, a plaque at the Hague that says he's really good a Judo and totally not gay.

I wonder if he'd settle for a Denny's gift card and a signed photo of Walter Koenig?

One question is to what extent this is ideological for Putin. E.g., he published that essay last year about how Ukraine is really part of Russia properly understood, and there's a high chance that he actually believes that. So part of this is principled - he wants to reunite Ukraine with Russia. If that's the case, then Putin has to wonder - if I pack it in now, will I ever get another shot at this? And if so, even if he thinks that he only has a 5% or 10% or so chance of winning, it may still be rational for him to keep going.

This may also be the case if he figures that giving in now will endanger his hold on power in Russia, which is hard to quantify but not crazy.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:14 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:06 pm I have to wonder how much of Putin's ego is involved in making ANY kind of compromise. It seems like he started this war cocksure he was going to come out the other side with complete victory within a matter of days. Now the overwhelming majority of the world hates him and he still hasn't taken their capital. Making any kind of compromise to end the war may seem like a blow to his ego at this point.

He'll withdraw Russian troops, give back all territory and allow Ukraine to join NATO if everyone agrees that he's he smartest, coolest, and toughest leader on the planet. Also, a plaque at the Hague that says he's really good a Judo and totally not gay.

Trump already did that!

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:17 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:14 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:06 pm I have to wonder how much of Putin's ego is involved in making ANY kind of compromise. It seems like he started this war cocksure he was going to come out the other side with complete victory within a matter of days. Now the overwhelming majority of the world hates him and he still hasn't taken their capital. Making any kind of compromise to end the war may seem like a blow to his ego at this point.

He'll withdraw Russian troops, give back all territory and allow Ukraine to join NATO if everyone agrees that he's he smartest, coolest, and toughest leader on the planet. Also, a plaque at the Hague that says he's really good a Judo and totally not gay.

Trump already did that!

I'm not sure if a plaque at Mar-A-Lago is recognized as canon.

hepcat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:16 pm I wonder if he'd settle for a Denny's gift card and a signed photo of Walter Koenig?

But he might know about the Nuclear Wessels in Alameda?

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:17 pm One question is to what extent this is ideological for Putin. E.g., he published that essay last year about how Ukraine is really part of Russia properly understood, and there's a high chance that he actually believes that. So part of this is principled - he wants to reunite Ukraine with Russia. If that's the case, then Putin has to wonder - if I pack it in now, will I ever get another shot at this? And if so, even if he thinks that he only has a 5% or 10% or so chance of winning, it may still be rational for him to keep going.

This may also be the case if he figures that giving in now will endanger his hold on power in Russia, which is hard to quantify but not crazy.

Right he isn't crazy. His viewpoint on Ukraine is ahistorical, mostly self-made up, but I think many if not most decision makers think he believes it. The problem with Putin is his risk calculus/estimation of success is based on a constant feed of garbage information. It makes you wonder what is the best way to deal with him. Do you point out how blind he is? Do you try to wake up that his chances of success are so low that it makes this north worth it? It's hard to see that happening. There are no good answers because the man is ultimately incredibly amoral. It is perhaps best to wait until he is badly bloodied and hope he doesn't freak out. When you think through the scenarios there isn't any real good way to deal with it - other than keep pressure on him from all angles.

Putin is 69. How much longer does he have? Maybe he thinks he is running out of time and this is his chance to do or die so to speak. Winning cements him in Russian history. If he goes for it and loses then his time is short anyways so F it.

Unless he has a terminal illness we're not aware of, I doubt he's considering his own mortality.

Russia bombs theater were between 1000-1200 civilians were sheltering

It's hard to know what this growing list of atrocities is supposed to accomplish. Is Putin intentionally making it impossible to surrender? Do they think the tactics that worked in Syria are going to work with the world actually united against him?

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:38 pm Putin is 69. How much longer does he have? Maybe he thinks he is running out of time and this is his chance to do or die so to speak. Winning cements him in Russian history. If he goes for it and loses then his time is short anyways so F it.

We can only hope he does get cemented in Russian history.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:41 pm Unless he has a terminal illness we're not aware of, I doubt he's considering his own mortality.

Apparently he is obsessed with his mortality. He is old for a Russian male, most of his peers are dead now, and it has been thought to be the driving factor behind his 'long table' meetings. Several Kremlinologists have argued this entire war is something he has been building up to, it is almost entirely about his legacy, and his impending mortality.

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:50 pm Russia bombs theater were between 1000-1200 civilians were sheltering

It's hard to know what this growing list of atrocities is supposed to accomplish. Is Putin intentionally making it impossible to surrender? Do they think the tactics that worked in Syria are going to work with the world actually united against him?

From what I understand they are trying to drive everyone out and replace them with Russians. Just like they did in Donbas with the separatists. Civilian casualties aren't the primary goal but they are a means to an end. It's ethnic cleansing by replacement and if people die, it helps get to the goal.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:30 am
Yeah, that's true, and McCain was right about Putin for awhile too (characterizing Putin as a KGB guy through and through).

Daehawk posted a video of an ex spy refuting that Putin is any kind of KGB spy. He claimed he was a mid-tier bureaucrat in Dresden or somewhere. I found that interesting.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:50 pm

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:38 pm Putin is 69. How much longer does he have? Maybe he thinks he is running out of time and this is his chance to do or die so to speak. Winning cements him in Russian history. If he goes for it and loses then his time is short anyways so F it.

We can only hope he does get cemented in Russian history.

Nice one.

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:53 pm

raydude wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:31 am

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:39 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:21 am Kremlin Says Neutral Ukraine With Army Could Be Compromise
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kremlin- ... 43248.html
(Bloomberg) -- A proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral country but retain its own armed forces “could be viewed as a certain kind of compromise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday, hinting at possible progress in peace negotiations.

"We will stop if you agree not to join NATO"?

What game is this? Russia just wants time to do a do-over. Ukraine should be free to do whatever it can peacefully achieve for itself. Fuck Putin and his tyranny - this man needs to be put down, not given a cookie.

As I understand it, even if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, there is nothing to stop it from purchasing military hardware from the West. For example, they could purchase Patriot anti-missile systems without being part of NATO, correct?

We give them Javelin missiles now , but Patriot missiles I’m not sure about the rules for. I don’t know where or how people draw lines with this arms dealing.

The main problem with the Patriot system is they don't really know how to use it.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:58 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:30 am
Yeah, that's true, and McCain was right about Putin for awhile too (characterizing Putin as a KGB guy through and through).

Daehawk posted a video of an ex spy refuting that Putin is any kind of KGB spy. He claimed he was a mid-tier bureaucrat in Dresden or somewhere. I found that interesting.

You should watch the video I shared with Masha Gessen

Page 65

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:56 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:41 pm Unless he has a terminal illness we're not aware of, I doubt he's considering his own mortality.

Apparently he is obsessed with his mortality. He is old for a Russian male, most of his peers are dead now, and it has been thought to be the driving factor behind his 'long table' meetings. Several Kremlinologists have argued this entire war is something he has been building up to, it is almost entirely about his legacy, and his impending mortality.

He's paranoid, and rightfully so. Lots of people would like to see him dead. I don't think he ponders his own mortality other than to assessing threats to his own safety. Certainly not on an existential level.

Long tables mean distance from potential attackers. Distance equals time to stop them.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:03 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:56 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:41 pm Unless he has a terminal illness we're not aware of, I doubt he's considering his own mortality.

Apparently he is obsessed with his mortality. He is old for a Russian male, most of his peers are dead now, and it has been thought to be the driving factor behind his 'long table' meetings. Several Kremlinologists have argued this entire war is something he has been building up to, it is almost entirely about his legacy, and his impending mortality.

He's paranoid, and rightfully so. Lots of people would like to see him dead. I don't think he ponders his own mortality other than to assessing threats to his own safety. Certainly not on an existential level.

Long tables mean distance from potential attackers. Distance equals time to stop them.

The long tables were almost entirely about COVID. He also used them in meetings with people who were clearly not a threat. Julie Ioffe talked about his mortality fears in the PBS clip above too. You might be right but lots of people close to this think differently.

Edit: Another thing to keep in mind is that the 'long table' didn't make an appearance until February this year. That is why it is eliciting so much comment. Putin also gave a press conference with Orban where they were on opposite sides of a room. In any case, the idea that he was worried about threats from Macron or that it was some psychological trick abandons years and years of him not relying on such gimmicks.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:03 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:56 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:41 pm Unless he has a terminal illness we're not aware of, I doubt he's considering his own mortality.

Apparently he is obsessed with his mortality. He is old for a Russian male, most of his peers are dead now, and it has been thought to be the driving factor behind his 'long table' meetings. Several Kremlinologists have argued this entire war is something he has been building up to, it is almost entirely about his legacy, and his impending mortality.

He's paranoid, and rightfully so. Lots of people would like to see him dead. I don't think he ponders his own mortality other than to assessing threats to his own safety. Certainly not on an existential level.

Long tables mean distance from potential attackers. Distance equals time to stop them.

Also, last year there were multiple rumors that he had been diagnosed with MS.

These are clearly war crime level atrocities. But is anyone really going to hold Putin to war crimes?

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:23 pm These are clearly war crime level atrocities. But is anyone really going to hold Putin to war crimes?

It's more of a question of 'can anyone.'

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:04 pm

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:23 pm These are clearly war crime level atrocities. But is anyone really going to hold Putin to war crimes?

It's more of a question of 'can anyone.'

It's kind of an academic question at the end of the day. There can be no war crimes trial while Putin is in power obviously. But if he's overthrown, then he's first and foremost going to be worried about Russian justice essentially for failure to prevent a mutiny, not international justice.