Octopus Overlords

Kurth wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:20 pm That's not how I took her comments. I didn't watch the video

“I don’t care if they were involved or not,” she told a CNN reporter when confronted about her involvement in Russia-backed events organized by the Being Patriotic Facebook page. “That’s the least important thing.”

Rip wrote: blame idiots that think a few stupid troll ads got Trump elected.

The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.

The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.

Moliere wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:31 pm The Backfire Effect

The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.

The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.

Works great for religion too.

Across all experiments, we found no corrections capable of triggering backfire, despite testing precisely the kinds of polarized issues where backfire should be expected. Evidence of factual backfire is far more tenuous than prior research suggests. By and large, citizens heed factual information, even when such information challenges their ideological commitments.

Further there is evidence that to some extent people not only ignore facts, they may think that facts are not important. They may conclude that the specific fact they are being presented is not relevant to their ideological belief. Or they may believe that facts in general are not important.

What that generally means is that they dismiss facts as being biased and subjective. You have your facts, but I have my facts, and everyone is entitled to their opinion – meaning they get to choose which facts to believe.

Of course all of this is exacerbated by the echochamber effect. People overwhelmingly seek out sources of information that are in line with their ideology.

I think it is very important to recognize that the backfire effect is a small or perhaps even nonexistent phenomenon. The problem with belief in the backfire effect is that it portrays people as hopelessly biased, and suggests that attempts at educating people or changing their mind is fruitless. It suggests that the problem of incorrect beliefs is an unfixable inherent problem with human psychology.

Certainly there are psychological effects strongly at play when it comes to how people form their beliefs, but immunity to facts is not necessarily one of them. Rather, it seems that culture and behavior play a large role, and those are modifiable variables.

Kurth wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:24 pmWe're quickly headed to a place where the only "real" opinions are those that align more or less with our own perspective.

A judge on Thursday rejected a motion from former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort to modify the terms of his bail agreement.

U.S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson wrote in court documents that Manafort's proposal to pledge his property in Alexandria, Va., as part of his $10 million bond was "unsatisfactory" as the property is already pledged as collateral for a loan on one of Manafort's other properties.

Berman also ruled that Manafort must prove he is current with his mortgage payments on another property located on New York's Fifth Avenue in order for it to be pledged as part of his bond.

A federal judge has released former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort from house arrest on $10 million bail.

Manafort will be allowed to live at his home in Florida and will be under curfew and GPS monitoring.

He'll be able to travel to Washington for court appearances and to meet with his legal team, but he otherwise must stay in two counties in Florida.

Manafort can't go near any airports, train stations or bus stations unless he gets approval for travel from the judge in advance. Manafort already surrendered his passports when he was arrested, and now his wife Kathleen will surrender hers, according to the judge's order.
...
To back his bail, Manafort offers four homes as collateral, including the one in Florida, plus his apartment in Alexandria, Virginia, and two properties in New York. His wife will secure his bail by placing $5 million an account, and his daughter Andrea Manafort Shand will place $2 million in another account.

Manafort struggled for the last seven weeks to secure a change to his bail conditions, which his lawyers said "severely impacted his ability to earn a living," according to an earlier filing.

The special counsel's office sought proof that his real estate properties were worth the $11 million-plus he said they were. The prosecutors also attempted to kill a proposed change to his bail last week after they discovered he had worked on an op-ed for a Ukrainian English-language newspaper that praised his political efforts in Ukraine.

Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and a former associate were indicted for a second time on new charges including failure to report income to tax authorities, in a move that could increase the pressure on them to cooperate with the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
...
In the superseding indictment filed on Thursday in federal court in Washington, they face new charges of tax evasion and bank fraud.

Prosecutors say that more than $75 million flowed through offshore accounts controlled by Manafort. Manafort, with Gates’s help, laundered more than $30 million in income that he had concealed from the U.S. Treasury Department and Justice Department, they said. Gates collected about $3 million in income that he, too, concealed, they said.
...
The pressure on Manafort heightened further in a court filing unsealed on Feb. 16. Prosecutors said in the document that he engaged in a “series of bank frauds and bank fraud conspiracies” not charged in his indictment. Those frauds relate to a mortgage on a Virginia property that Manafort seeks to pledge to secure his $10 million bail, according to the filing.

Manafort “provided the bank with doctored profit and loss statements” from his company for 2015 and 2016, while “overstating its income by millions of dollars,” prosecutors said.

Gates, meanwhile, brought in a new defense team after three lawyers sought to quit on Feb. 1, without publicly citing their reasons.

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:21 pm "Could" increase the pressure? I doubt there's any question about that...

hepcat wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:41 pm Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

Jeff V wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:27 am

hepcat wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:41 pm Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

Remus West wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:33 am

Jeff V wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:27 am

hepcat wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:41 pm Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

At this point there is probably a pee tape out there with a Trump-impersonator that would get him there.

Remus West wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:33 am

Jeff V wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:27 am

hepcat wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:41 pm Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

At this point there is probably a pee tape out there with a Trump-impersonator that would get him there.

malchior wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:26 pm Gates' lawyer must have been like plea guilty...it is your only hope.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:33 pm So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

Holman wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:15 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:33 pm So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

Is it known whether Mueller has interviewed Kushner or Don Jr.?

Obviously the Trump Tower meeting is of major interest to the investigation, but I don't recall hearing that the participants (other than Manafort) have been brought in.

Holman wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:15 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:33 pm So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

Is it known whether Mueller has interviewed Kushner or Don Jr.?

Obviously the Trump Tower meeting is of major interest to the investigation, but I don't recall hearing that the participants (other than Manafort) have been brought in.

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial are too much. I will better serve my family moving forward by exiting this process.”

Enough wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:33 pm ABC obtained a letter from Gates that pretty much definitively indicates dude is a cooperating witness,

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial, along with the high probability that I will otherwise spend a decade or two in federal pound-you-in-the-ass prison, are too much. I will better serve my family, and my own interest in not spending a very long time in jail, moving forward by exiting this process.”

Paingod wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:40 pm I thought federal prisons were resorts that kept your family out for you so you can get some peace and quiet.

State prisons, on the other hand...

Enough wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:33 pm ABC obtained a letter from Gates that pretty much definitively indicates dude is a cooperating witness,

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial are too much. I will better serve my family moving forward by exiting this process.”

pr0ner wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:13 pm

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial are too much. I will better serve my family moving forward by exiting this process.”

Adam Schiff wrote:Some time ago, Republicans on our committee released a declassified memo that omitted and distorted key facts in order to mislead the public and impugn the integrity of the FBI.

We can now tell you what they left out: