Octopus Overlords

At this point I'd bet on Alaska by itself being able to defend itself against the Russian army.

I’ll try to find the links later to post but the Russians have had 3 major setbacks on the southern front, all verified, not rumor:

1). A Russian BTG was defeated and rendered combat ineffective when trying to take a village north of Mikolaiv, with over 100 dead, plus wounded
2). The Russians lost a significant number of helicopters and vehicles at the Kherson airport after a Ukrainian artillery strike
3). After all of this, the Russians appear weakened as the Ukrainians took a village halfway between Mikolaiv and Kherson, breaking the siege of Mikolaiv.

The question now is can the UA continue this and put pressure on Kherson or will they be driven back?

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:24 pm I’ll try to find the links later to post but the Russians have had 3 major setbacks on the southern front, all verified, not rumor:

1). A Russian BTG was defeated and rendered combat ineffective when trying to take a village north of Mikolaiv, with over 100 dead, plus wounded
2). The Russians lost a significant number of helicopters and vehicles at the Kherson airport after a Ukrainian artillery strike
3). After all of this, the Russians appear weakened as the Ukrainians took a village halfway between Mikolaiv and Kherson, breaking the siege of Mikolaiv.

The question now is can the UA continue this and put pressure on Kherson or will they be driven back?

I read that they also were able to free the kidnapped Melitopo Mayor.

Defeat north of Mykolaiv:

https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1504249966247751683?s=21

Kherson airport strike:

https://twitter.com/flexghost1/status/1 ... 971205?s=2

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1504 ... 03620?s=21

Please tell me someone has eyes on Vlad through a sniper scope in case he starts to get button happy if things start to lean even more towards Ukraine.

Drive on Kherson:

https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/sta ... 52004?s=21

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:40 am

Unagi wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:35 am That Russian vehicle seemed to survive that blast fairly well. I realize it seemed to do something that forced the driver off the road, but it appeared mostly intact and functional.

Kinda surprised that explosion didn’t push it more. (And do more damage).

I think this is a function that they are designed to penetrate armor first most so the force of the blast is mostly forward. It probably did a lot more damage than it looks or caused an injury that ended up causing the truck to crash. The hatch in the compartment blew open so I'm thinking the driver was in a bad way since that didn't look controlled.

Pretty much. Most anti-armor weapons are designed to concentrate their force to make a small hole and then propel 'stuff' (which varies - likely a a dense core superheated and fragmented) in through that hole. It's like drilling a small hole and then firing a giant shotgun with superheated pellets through the hole. It's intent is to crack the engine block, or to have the fragments bouncing around damaging internal components, hitting personnel, or setting off stored ammunition. There is very little 'impact', sort of like shooting an arrow through a watermelon will barely move the watermelon.

The whole thing of a rocket going off and blowing a vehicle into the air with a big explosion is Hollywood.

Depends on if you hit the fuel or ammunition.

Sure, but then it's the ammo cooking off causing the actual explosion.

I wonder how the Ukraine Legion mercs are doin?

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:58 pm Sure, but then it's the ammo cooking off causing the actual explosion.

With a little help.

Ive been watching Artur's videos for years. He is ex Estonian military. He does react and such type videos but has made a patriotic Ukrainian one. Im guessing those are fellow Estonian soldiers in the video.

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:54 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:40 am

Unagi wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:35 am That Russian vehicle seemed to survive that blast fairly well. I realize it seemed to do something that forced the driver off the road, but it appeared mostly intact and functional.

Kinda surprised that explosion didn’t push it more. (And do more damage).

I think this is a function that they are designed to penetrate armor first most so the force of the blast is mostly forward. It probably did a lot more damage than it looks or caused an injury that ended up causing the truck to crash. The hatch in the compartment blew open so I'm thinking the driver was in a bad way since that didn't look controlled.

Pretty much. Most anti-armor weapons are designed to concentrate their force to make a small hole and then propel 'stuff' (which varies - likely a a dense core superheated and fragmented) in through that hole. It's like drilling a small hole and then firing a giant shotgun with superheated pellets through the hole. It's intent is to crack the engine block, or to have the fragments bouncing around damaging internal components, hitting personnel, or setting off stored ammunition. There is very little 'impact', sort of like shooting an arrow through a watermelon will barely move the watermelon.

The whole thing of a rocket going off and blowing a vehicle into the air with a big explosion is Hollywood.

From the outside, meh. From the inside, spray of molten metal shrapnel and a concussive blast. At least your perforated internal organs get cauterized. You may live just long enough to crawl out and die on the roadside.

Those in back were probably injured from shrapnel and sound. The driver and cab pretty sure are dead and parts. It doesn't show what came next but I doubt they had one guy out there to shoot and run off. He would have been with a full squad who probably either killed those in back as they exited or took prisoner. Perhaps it was shot again.

Its like a drunk stupid bear stumbled into a cave full of honey badgers.

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:54 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:40 am

Unagi wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:35 am That Russian vehicle seemed to survive that blast fairly well. I realize it seemed to do something that forced the driver off the road, but it appeared mostly intact and functional.

Kinda surprised that explosion didn’t push it more. (And do more damage).

I think this is a function that they are designed to penetrate armor first most so the force of the blast is mostly forward. It probably did a lot more damage than it looks or caused an injury that ended up causing the truck to crash. The hatch in the compartment blew open so I'm thinking the driver was in a bad way since that didn't look controlled.

Pretty much. Most anti-armor weapons are designed to concentrate their force to make a small hole and then propel 'stuff' (which varies - likely a a dense core superheated and fragmented) in through that hole. It's like drilling a small hole and then firing a giant shotgun with superheated pellets through the hole. It's intent is to crack the engine block, or to have the fragments bouncing around damaging internal components, hitting personnel, or setting off stored ammunition. There is very little 'impact', sort of like shooting an arrow through a watermelon will barely move the watermelon.

Yeah, I was watching it on my phone (I couldn't even see the people in the back) and it looked more like it had exploded just outside the vehicle, less penetration... Watching the video now, it's pretty clear that it gets in there and explodes.

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:54 pm The whole thing of a rocket going off and blowing a vehicle into the air with a big explosion is Hollywood.

Is that right... Thanks

Having practiced with LAWs I was always disappointed by the explosion. Sure it penetrated the armor and probably kills most of the people inside but it just wasn't Hollywoodish.

Not to beat a dead Ural, but as the truck drifts into the pole it looks like there are some people on bicycles or motorcycles on the right edge of the frame. I don't know the significance, just seems like a curious place to be when nearby trucks are being hit by explosives.

It's a neighborhood. They could also be recon.

I'm just hoping that somehow Ukraine can break the siege on Mariupol. This is a city of about half a million people without food or water or electricity now and the Russians have cut off all escape paths and relief efforts.

This video is ten minutes long--an eternity by internet standards--but it's thoroughly worth watching.

EDIT: It's the Arnold Schwarzenegger message already posted in the video thread.

Unagi wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:12 pm Yeah, I was watching it on my phone (I couldn't even see the people in the back) and it looked more like it had exploded just outside the vehicle, less penetration... Watching the video now, it's pretty clear that it gets in there and explodes.

Sort of. It's more that there isn't much explosion at all. It's a super-focused blast (a shaped charge, essentially) rather than a big blast. The whole point is to create a pinpoint of intense heat and energy to melt/punch a hole. Any explosion beyond that is wasted.



The focus of the blast has to be precise for the energy to punch a hole and get inside. If you can force it to go off early - by, say, hitting a thin sheet of material a few inches away from the actual armor - it's not properly focused when it hits the actual armor, and just disperses across the surface. It's why some vehicles have thin metal a few inches away from their actual armor. Alternately, some tanks are actually covered in small explosives that detonate outward just as a round hits them. It disrupts the focus of the explosion (this armor looks like tons of tiny boxes all over the outside of the tank.)

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:53 pm The focus of the blast has to be precise for the energy to punch a hole and get inside. If you can force it to go off early - by, say, hitting a thin sheet of material a few inches away from the actual armor - it's not properly focused when it hits the actual armor, and just disperses across the surface. It's why some vehicles have thin metal a few inches away from their actual armor. Alternately, some tanks are actually covered in small explosives that detonate outward just as a round hits them. It disrupts the focus of the explosion (this armor looks like tons of tiny boxes all over the outside of the tank.)

And this is also what slat armor (such as a cage mounted a foot or so off the side of a vehicle) is for. The idea is to trick the warhead into discharging the initial blast early so that the follow-on energy isn't channeled through a small penetration into the interior but instead spreads out across the actual side armor.

Then you just put pointy things on the warheads.

paulbaxter wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:32 pm I'm just hoping that somehow Ukraine can break the siege on Mariupol. This is a city of about half a million people without food or water or electricity now and the Russians have cut off all escape paths and relief efforts.

I can't help but think about the siege of Douma in Syria. I am very much hoping it turns out better for the populace - after years of grinding them down the "Syrians" conducted a chemical attack on city. They were sieged for years at that point.

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:19 pm

paulbaxter wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:32 pm I'm just hoping that somehow Ukraine can break the siege on Mariupol. This is a city of about half a million people without food or water or electricity now and the Russians have cut off all escape paths and relief efforts.

I can't help but think about the siege of Douma in Syria. I am very much hoping it turns out better for the populace - after years of grinding them down the "Syrians" conducted a chemical attack on city. They were sieged for years at that point.

On the one hand, Russia can't hold out for years. On the other, that means they may just accelerate the timetable.

This is some authentically Canadian snark.

https://twitter.com/canadaun/status/1504464863510335488

Thank you @RussiaUN for your letter dated March 16.

Please see our suggested edits below.

Putin went off on his populace in a televised speech that some are calling Stalinesque. He called dissenters against the war traitors and signaled perhaps a return to the outright political repression of the darkest times of the Soviet Union.

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:24 pm The question now is can the UA continue this and put pressure on Kherson or will they be driven back?

Ukrainian strategy so far has not been to take and hold ground, but rather to inflict maximum damage and casualties and melt away. 'Course, if given a chance to break a siege, that's got to be tempting.

Kraken wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:28 pm

Grifman wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:24 pm The question now is can the UA continue this and put pressure on Kherson or will they be driven back?

Ukrainian strategy so far has not been to take and hold ground, but rather to inflict maximum damage and casualties and melt away. 'Course, if given a chance to break a siege, that's got to be tempting.

They might not try until they think they'll absolutely succeed and might try to time it so it'll maximally embarrass Putin.

The loony caucus on this issue isn't too expansive for once.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1504541545193783299

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:28 pm Putin went off on his populace in a televised speech that some are calling Stalinesque. He called dissenters against the war traitors and signaled perhaps a return to the outright political repression of the darkest times of the Soviet Union.

He also attacked those who (paraphrase) "made their wealth in Russia but prefer to live in Europe and enjoy Western luxuries."

There are various factions among the oligarchs in Russia, including some who gained wealth and influence during the Yeltsen days and who aren't completely beholden to Putin himself. These are the ones Putin is calling out.

Stalinistics suggest that there's some kind of purge incoming. What's disturbing is that none of it has much to do with Ukraine; it's just paranoid dictator stuff.

Oh, and there are also reports that Putin has just fired 1,000 members of his personal staff (hard to know whether this means household staff, "executive branch" employees, or both) in order to replace them with people he considers more loyal (i.e. less likely to poison his caviar).

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:32 pm The loony caucus on this issue isn't too expansive for once.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1504541545193783299

The Hateful Eight.

What no Cruz, Graham, Paul, Blackburn, or Hagerty? Are those little hottie tottie noobies out revulsioning the old hats?

Cruz is a Senator.

Daehawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:51 pm What no Cruz, Graham, Paul, Blackburn, or Hagerty? Are those little hottie tottie noobies out revulsioning the old hats?

Senators don't generally vote in the house.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:53 pm

Daehawk wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:51 pm What no Cruz, Graham, Paul, Blackburn, or Hagerty? Are those little hottie tottie noobies out revulsioning the old hats?

Senators don't generally vote in the house.

Didn't see that part.