Octopus Overlords

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 3:11 am
I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

Unagi wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:00 am

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 3:11 am
I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 9:20 am Still, I think it's more likely that he gets probation and I think community service is a real possibility.

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 6:12 pm Trump’s sentencing date for July 11

Zarathud wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:58 am This is where Trumps contempt of court makes a lighter sentence difficult. No remorse, no acceptance of the process, a history of fraud, and a likelihood of reoffending. It might not be long, but if Martha Stewart can do jail time then Donald Trump can too.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:21 am

Unagi wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:00 am

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 3:11 am
I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

Half of the general public.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 5:34 pm We know this energizes him and his cultists, but my question is how will the shambling husk of what was the GOP respond? Will *this* be the moment they finally decide to try and shed their MAGA label and do what they can to salvage what's left of the party? Or do they double-down now for the final approach?

Grifman wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 5:10 pm This means he can’t vote, LOL!

Zaxxon wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 11:05 am

Zarathud wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:58 am This is where Trumps contempt of court makes a lighter sentence difficult. No remorse, no acceptance of the process, a history of fraud, and a likelihood of reoffending. It might not be long, but if Martha Stewart can do jail time then Donald Trump can too.

Yeah, I'm just a member of the public with no intimate knowledge of the justice system, but this case and this defendant seem designed specifically to end in jail time. In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

If this conviction ends in zero jail time, then jail time shouldn't even be among the allowable outcomes for a case like this (since clearly it's not meant to be used in any case).

Unagi wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:00 am

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 3:11 am
I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 9:20 am I think community service is a real possibility.

Kurth wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 11:52 am But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:27 pm

Kurth wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 11:52 am But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

This was more than just falsifying business records, though. It was falsifying business records as part of a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election. The election was close enough that it's not unreasonable to think that if the media were focusing on convicted felon Donald Trump's affair with a porn actress months after the birth of his latest child with anything close to the same zeal that they covered Hillary's e-mails, the end result might have been different.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 11:05 am In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:39 pm How about we start with one day for the first count, then double it for each subsequent count?

The Meal wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:43 pm numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

Zaxxon wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:46 pm I still think we're being harsh. Let's just go with one second for the first crime and double from there.

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:45 pm

The Meal wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:43 pm numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

numDaysBetweenJuly11andInaugurationDay + 1

The Meal wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:47 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:45 pm

The Meal wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:43 pm numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

numDaysBetweenJuly11andInaugurationDay + 1

I was just shooting for the symbolic optics of not letting him vote. I’d be fine if his ability to make the news was permanently disrupted.

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:51 am

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 6:12 pm Trump’s sentencing date for July 11

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:27 pm

Kurth wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 11:52 am But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

This was more than just falsifying business records, though. It was falsifying business records as part of a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election. The election was close enough that it's not unreasonable to think that if the media were focusing on convicted felon Donald Trump's affair with a porn actress months after the birth of his latest child with anything close to the same zeal that they covered Hillary's e-mails, the end result might have been different.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:49 pm So much can happen between now and 7/11. So much.

gilraen wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:38 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 11:05 am In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

Especially considering that Michael Cohen got jail time for his participation in the SAME scheme. The justice system as a general rule doesn't like jailing underlings and letting the boss walk free. So here's hoping.

Kurth wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:50 pm Ok, and maybe I’m wrong here, but my understanding is that there is nothing illegal about paying hush money to Stormy Daniels to buy her silence about a sexual encounter. Like, that’s not a crime. And it’s not like there’s a statute prohibiting “illegally influencing the 2016 election.” I thought the underlying crime that raised the falsification of business documents to a felony was that the records were falsified to cover up an illegal campaign contribution from Michael Cohen.

In other words, Trump’s real crime here is being a cheap bastard. If he had just paid Stormy Daniels with his own money from the start, there wouldn’t have been any issue.

So, again, we can call it “illegally influencing the 2016 election,” but it’s really kind of a nothingburger.

I’m ok with that. I have no problem that the feds finally nailed Al Capone and put him away for tax evasion. I’d be overjoyed if Trump gets jail time for this. But I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Why were the charges a felony?

Under New York law, falsification of business records is a crime when the records are altered with an intent to defraud. To be charged as a felony, prosecutors must also show that the offender intended to "commit another crime" or "aid or conceal" another crime when falsifying records.

In Trump's case, prosecutors said that other crime was a violation of a New York election law that makes it illegal for "any two or more persons" to "conspire to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means," as Justice Juan Merchan explained in his instructions to the jury.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 12:50 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 10:51 am

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 6:12 pm Trump’s sentencing date for July 11

Thursday, July 11: Trump Sentencing.
Monday, Jul 15 – Thursday, Jul 18: Republican National Convention.

He'll get a day in jail and storm onto the stage at the RNC in an orange jumpsuit with 47 on the back and Alice Cooper's No More Mr. Nice Guy blasting.

Unfortunately, on TV, the color of the jumpsuit will make him appear to be naked.

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 2:51 pm Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

Kurth wrote:But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant

Kurth wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 4:35 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 2:51 pm Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

That was the point I was trying to make above in the context of discussing the harm and who the victims of Trump’s crime were. My issue is, the underlying thing Trump did here - covering up the affair - wasn’t illegal. He had a right to cover up the affair. It only becomes illegal and runs afoul of campaign finance rules when he doesn’t disclose it. But had he just written Stormy a check from his own accounts, no issue.

Again, I hope he does time. But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant - you can argue that’s impossible and shouldn’t be our aim - then jail time for this low level offense (a misdemeanor that rises to a felony because of a technical violation of campaign finance disclosure rules) seems inappropriate.

YellowKing wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 4:50 pm

Kurth wrote:But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant

A normal defendant like Michael Cohen, who just served time for the same crime?

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 5:18 pm

Kurth wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 4:35 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 2:51 pm Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

That was the point I was trying to make above in the context of discussing the harm and who the victims of Trump’s crime were. My issue is, the underlying thing Trump did here - covering up the affair - wasn’t illegal. He had a right to cover up the affair. It only becomes illegal and runs afoul of campaign finance rules when he doesn’t disclose it. But had he just written Stormy a check from his own accounts, no issue.

Again, I hope he does time. But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant - you can argue that’s impossible and shouldn’t be our aim - then jail time for this low level offense (a misdemeanor that rises to a felony because of a technical violation of campaign finance disclosure rules) seems inappropriate.

I think your issue is with the laws of the state of NY, then. Those are the laws on the books that he violated that carry a potential prison sentence. I'm not inclined to brush that off as a technicality, as it seems to be working as intended.