(Almost) Simple WW Game - Game Over

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat May 02, 2009 2:36 pm

withdraw Semaj

Unagi

mipe · Post by **mipe** » Sat May 02, 2009 3:15 pm

(

I seriously need to check this forum more often, I missed the game, AGAIN! )

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat May 02, 2009 3:52 pm

I got a question before we railroad Theo - would it be advisable for a wolf to immediately sound out their suspicions and point fingers. Been thinking this over, and this is not a defense of him but rather an analysis of my own suspicions on him. Reason I am suspiscious are twofold.

1. during the reveal of innocents we knew, I came out quickly after him nameing remus - he quickly pointed a finger at me, indicating my actions were odd.

2. Semaj - earlier he was trying to drag semaj around and get us sniffing at him.

The more I thought about point 1 if I was in his shoes and if i was innocent - i sure as heck would look at any piggyback claim of innocent as odd...because i as an innocent had just cleared someone. Wouldn't that make your hairs stick up a bit?

On point two - i think he was more refering to how semaj was getting a free pass.

Now for general wolf strategy woudl you come out with these two claims and pretty much parade them around? I mean there is a general deft touch one needs to have when tryin to get the vilalge to lynch someone and not them...and i dont think theohall displayed that. I think his accusations were clumsy and illfounded. I think a wolf would try to play more of a circle the prey mentality and kind of glide along with the herd.

Just my thinking right now. Am not prepared to vote right now.

If the following math is correct, please correct if wrong - we have three shots to nail 1 wolf, 4 shots to nail 2. I didn't take up the varible if the she wolf targets the he wolf.

Oh some quick math -
Day 1
9 villagers left
8 afer lynch

Day 2 - 2 wolves left
7 after night kill
6 - after lynch

day 3 - 2 wolves left
5 after nk
4 after lynch

VILLAGE LOSES

Oh some quick math - version 2 - if we hit one wolf
Day 1
9 villagers left
8 afer lynch

Day 2 - 2 wolves left
7 after night kill
6 - after lynch

day 3 - 1 wolves left
5 after nk
4 after lynch

Day 4 1 wolf left
3 after nk
2 after L

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat May 02, 2009 3:56 pm

theohall wrote:You will know it was piggbacking when I turn up villager.

You are either willfully ignoring this, or simply not getting it.

Theohall, no matter what you turn up as: From my point of view "piggybacking" isn't what Newcastle and Mr Bubbles did.

The term Piggybacking should be used to describe what the She-Wolf or He-Wolf might do with copying another person's claim.

The reason the He-Wolf or She-Wolf might piggyback, would be to share the blame of an accidental "He-Wolf" claim with some unlucky, but honest, Villager.

Anyone claiming the one dead person - has the appearance of picking that name for one very obvious reason: that person WILL NEVER turn up being the He-Wolf.

Let's, for the sake of discussion, just say that both Newcastle and Mr Bubbles are EVIL.

You came into the game and reported that you were given the name "Remus".

I would venture to say that Evil-Newcastle and Evil-MrB would pick the name "Remus" - NOT to share the blame with poor innocent you when/if Remus turns up being a Wolf.
No. The reason that an Evil-Newcastle and and Evil-MrB would pick the name "Remus" - would be the guarantee that person WILL NEVER turn up being the He-Wolf.

In any case, the He-wolf (and to a lesser extent, the She-wolf) have no need what so ever to piggyback.

Why, why, WHY would the He-Wolf bother to piggyback his claim? He can safely pick a villager's name and just ride it all out... if we lynch his claim - he'll look even better. If we lynch him, we'll grow all paranoid about "his claim" - and perhaps lynch the villager he "claimed" afterwards.

The She-wolf is another story all together. She does have a slight problem. She runs the VERY REAL RISK of randomly "claiming" her He-Wolf as the name she was given. This would be problematic for her - if we should ever decide to test her or her claim, and everything starts to unravel. The point here is that She may be very tempted to claim that she was told the name of the first night's kill...

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat May 02, 2009 4:00 pm

here's the another thing i am thinking. The hewolf knows who the shewolf is. So therefore, he is going to try to do his best to not get them lynched...how? maybe misdirect, try to focus in on other people quickly. So maybe look for someone who is tryin to avoid getting too much heat on someone else.

I think if i were the hewolf i would also try in some way signal to the shewolf that i recognize them...how and even if they try is up to the player. But I think if I were the hewolf, i would try to send some sort of messsage to them. The last thing I think i would want as the hewolf, is to be the night kill. They lose a dayl, and gives the villagers another chance at finding either of them.

Just my two cents right now.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat May 02, 2009 4:03 pm

Newcastle wrote:here's the another thing i am thinking. The hewolf knows who the shewolf is. So therefore, he is going to try to do his best to not get them lynched...how? maybe misdirect, try to focus in on other people quickly. So maybe look for someone who is tryin to avoid getting too much heat on someone else.

I think if i were the hewolf i would also try in some way signal to the shewolf that i recognize them...how and even if they try is up to the player. But I think if I were the hewolf, i would try to send some sort of messsage to them. The last thing I think i would want as the hewolf, is to be the night kill. They lose a dayl, and gives the villagers another chance at finding either of them.

Just my two cents right now.

So, ummm.... was this you signalling to Theohall that you are the he-wolf, and you know who he is ??

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat May 02, 2009 4:06 pm

unagi - you bring up an interesting thread of thought and i think one that was touched upon earlier.

Lets say your the shewolf - you have to make a claim of an innocent, before too much passes.

Do you sit and wait to claim someone as innocent?
- argument for - you can get a feel for the players, maybe someone strikes you as overtly innocent and you can peg em quickly; this requires a good sense of intuition and good profiling of hte players - people like this i think would be CR and Grund

Do you claim the dead body an innocent
-This is an easy way out, oops dead body; i have to be a villager here. Quick, easy way. However the downside is that it's so obvious that you have to withstand the villagers gaze initially.

Do you simply go with random as your innocent?
-here i actually think is hte smart choice, just choose anyone, anyone. If you end up hitting the hewolf...then they know that you screwd up so to speak, and they cant die.
-hwoever the beauty of this is that if the hewolf does indeed die, the shewolf can claim that they were indeed teh he wolf.
Somehow i think this would actually be the better avenue, they have built in excuse of the he-wolf, they dont look forced via claiming the last nights kill, and they let the name come out organically and not too late so they can avert some suspcions, and simply look like a villager tossing the name out.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat May 02, 2009 4:07 pm

Unagi wrote:
Newcastle wrote:here's the another thing i am thinking. The hewolf knows who the shewolf is. So therefore, he is going to try to do his best to not get them lynched...how? maybe misdirect, try to focus in on other people quickly. So maybe look for someone who is tryin to avoid getting too much heat on someone else.

I think if i were the hewolf i would also try in some way signal to the shewolf that i recognize them...how and even if they try is up to the player. But I think if I were the hewolf, i would try to send some sort of messsage to them. The last thing I think i would want as the hewolf, is to be the night kill. They lose a dayl, and gives the villagers another chance at finding either of them.

Just my two cents right now.
So, ummm.... was this you signalling to Theohall that you are the he-wolf, and you know who he is ??

oh you caught me unagi, i wanted some hot she wolven action, and theo is just the cats meow...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat May 02, 2009 6:16 pm

Unagi wrote:Why, why, WHY would the He-Wolf bother to piggyback his claim? He can safely pick a villager's name and just ride it all out... if we lynch his claim - he'll look even better. If we lynch him, we'll grow all paranoid about "his claim" - and perhaps lynch the villager he "claimed" afterwards.

Just back from taking the family for a Saturday in Lancaster County.

I've skimmed the thread, but haven't read carefully the posts made since my last remarks. In skimming, this popped out at me as sound, so I'm pausing to note that. I agree with Unagi's reasoning here. What he describes is the optimal way to play the He-Wolf (providing natural cover if his named innocent is killed and found innocent; casting heavy suspicion on that same innocent if the He-Wolf is killed and shown to be a fuzzball).

Napping (to recover from the drive) and then analyzing....

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sat May 02, 2009 10:46 pm

Since I only want to use "official" lists.....

Grundbegriff wrote:{Carrying forward to new page....}

Now that all the info is in, it looks as if we have three pawn islands-- three paths to get to the clearing of Remus West:

Grundbegriff --- clears Scoop20906 of She-Wolfdom
Scoop20906 --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom
(Semaj --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom)
Lassr --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom
(Unagi --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom)
Mr Bubbles --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Chaosraven --- clears Newcastle of She-Wolfdom
Newcastle --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Theohall --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Here's the same info sorted by name received:

Scoop20906 --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom
Semaj --- clears Lassr of She-Wolfdom

Lassr --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom
Unagi --- clears Mr Bubbles of She-Wolfdom

Chaosraven --- clears Newcastle of She-Wolfdom

Mr Bubbles --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom
Newcastle --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom
Theohall --- clears Remus West of She-Wolfdom

Grundbegriff --- clears Scoop20906 of She-Wolfdom

Here's a frequency chart of vouchings against She-Wolfitude:

Cleared thrice: Remus West (by Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall) (also confirmed by death)
Cleared twice: Mr Bubbles (by Lassr, Unagi); Lassr (by Scoop0906, Semaj)
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

Calculating....

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:We have several ways to attack this problem and several criteria that can be used to make a decision. I still think the three "recognitions" of a dead Remus West need to be follow up.
We have two leads: the piggybacking phenomenon and the not-cleared data.

The folks implicated via a lack of clearance are:
Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

The folks cleared only by someone not cleared are:
Newcastle, Scoop20906

The folks implicated in the piggybacking on Remus thing are:
Mr. Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall

So, who can we eliminate to gain the most information for tomorrow?

I'll start with those who have no she-wolf clearance at all:
Chaosraven
Grundbegriff
Semaj
theohall
Unagi

Both Chaosraven and Grundbegriff cleared others. Removing one of them (and they are villagers) proves that either myself or Newcastle are not the she-wolf. Other than guessing using piggybacking or other criteria, this is the most information we can get on Day one.

Unfortunately, both Chaosraven and Grundbegriff are very good players and if there are villagers we surely don't want to lose them.

So, since I know I am a villager this makes it more likely that Grundbegriff is a villager or He-wolf. So, from my perspective, the best vote for Day one is chaosraven

If Chaosraven shows to be a villager than we can assume that Newcastle is not a she-wolf.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 1:55 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Both Chaosraven and Grundbegriff cleared others. Removing one of them (and they are villagers) proves that either myself or Newcastle are not the she-wolf. Other than guessing using piggybacking or other criteria, this is the most information we can get on Day one.

Unfortunately, both Chaosraven and Grundbegriff are very good players and if there are villagers we surely don't want to lose them.

So, since I know I am a villager this makes it more likely that Grundbegriff is a villager or He-wolf. So, from my perspective, the best vote for Day one is chaosraven

If Chaosraven shows to be a villager than we can assume that Newcastle is not a she-wolf.

You are right Scoop - but as I read your last line, it makes me think about the ultimate value in that new bit of knowledge.

Can I ask everyone?

We have this list of claims. What is it we are trying to do with it really?

Are we really lynching people, in order to discover who's Claim is honest?

Or are we trying to find the She-wolf.

Even a proven honest claim has no value - none... That list is designed to potentially contain the other wolf.

Figuring out which names on the claim list are from liars or truth tellers is not gaining us a thing.

Finding the she-wolf on that list is the only real value that I can see. (the only hole being if the he-wolf did indeed risk claiming her name, so she's not on that list.)

I say, vote for Chaosraven if you feel that, out of the names on that list, he's the one you feel is playing the most She-wolfee.

Don't do it because you are going to learn something of value about Newcastle.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun May 03, 2009 6:51 am

Monday Vote Tally

theohall acc Semaj (1)
Scoop acc Grund (1)
Scoop wd Grund (0)
Lassr acc theohall (1)
Unagi acc theohall (2)
theohall wd Semaj (0)
theohall acc Unagi (1)
Scoop acc Chaosraven (1)

Votes needed = 5

Against theohall (2): Lassr, Unagi
Against Unagi (1): theohall
Against Chaos (1): Scoop

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sun May 03, 2009 10:24 am

my goal is finding the she-wolf right now. I feel theohall is most likely candidate but Chaos is on that list also. The info we get from Chaos if he is innocent is that Newcastle is not the she-wolf. If he's wolf then Newcastle is what? Most likely innocent since I can't imagine Chaos tying himself to the other wolf (unless sex was involved). But it does not 100% clear Newcastle.

I'm more inclined to go after the strongest candidate.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun May 03, 2009 11:42 am

I'm building a data set. If we kill theohall (and he is no wolf), we eliminate one villager. If we kill Chaosraven and he is a villager, we can assume that he is telling the truth about Newcastle not being a she-wolf. That reduces the she-wolf list by two.

As far as who I THINK is acting like a she-wolf? Well, I think I can make the vote more successfully tomorrow when I have knocked two names off that list.

Oh, and if Chaosraven ends up being a wolf, then I'm not so concerned what is says about Newcastle because I GOT A WOLF! Thats the goal here. I think I am making the right tactical vote today.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun May 03, 2009 11:52 am

Scenario if Chaosraven is a village and we kill him today:

Not She-wolf from my perspective
Mr Bubbles
Lassr
Scoop20906
Newcastle

Possible She-wolves
Grundbegriff
Semaj
theohall
Unagi

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 12:37 pm

You seem to be really pleased about building a nice list of "Not She-Wolf". I hope that serves you well this game.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun May 03, 2009 1:55 pm

I have specifically endorsed this plan, and made note that Grund should be relatively immune to Nighttime attacks (as it will winnow the She-Wolf pool by 2), she will need to kill either Lassr or Bubbles or winnow the pool further

Chaosraven

Please remember my Villager status does not exempt Newcastle from Hewolf status.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun May 03, 2009 2:05 pm

Unagi wrote:You seem to be really pleased about building a nice list of "Not She-Wolf". I hope that serves you well this game.

Although you seem to agree with me initially you then seem to be doing as much as you can to discredit my vote. If you think Theohall is a better choice then stick with your vote. I'm trying to put us in the best position for tomorrow's vote. Tomorrow is a better day for hunches.

I'd be more pleased if I was sure Chaosraven or Theohall was a wolf but I'm not sure about either. If you are positive Theohall is a wolf, I will put my vote on him tomorrow. If I'm not around tomorrow, then I hope you will have MORE information from which to work with.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 3:03 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
Unagi wrote:You seem to be really pleased about building a nice list of "Not She-Wolf". I hope that serves you well this game.
Although you seem to agree with me initially you then seem to be doing as much as you can to discredit my vote. If you think Theohall is a better choice then stick with your vote. I'm trying to put us in the best position for tomorrow's vote. Tomorrow is a better day for hunches.

I'd be more pleased if I was sure Chaosraven or Theohall was a wolf but I'm not sure about either. If you are positive Theohall is a wolf, I will put my vote on him tomorrow. If I'm not around tomorrow, then I hope you will have MORE information from which to work with.

I'm not trying to discredit your vote. It just seems, from the language you have used, you are not picking Chaosraven because you think he's a She-wolf, as much as you are picking Chaosraven because the person he claimed is still alive (Newcastle). And - that by killing Chaosraven, you then will learn something about Newcastle.

I am saying that is an illusion.

There is Nothing to be gained when/if we learn that Chaosraven was honest with his claim. You are not in agreement with me on that.

I'd rather you come here and say - "I have a hunch that Chaosraven is indeed the she-wolf, because he seems to be not sticking his neck out"... Or something to that effect.

So, we kill Chaosraven - and he turns up Evil. Fantastic. His claim is meaningless though - as it may or may not be a villager.
So, we kill Chaosraven - and he turns up Good. Crap. His claim is meaningless though - as it may or may not be a villager.

Do you not see that?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 3:05 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:I'd be more pleased if I was sure Chaosraven or Theohall was a wolf but I'm not sure about either.

No. No one is sure of anything - and no one ever will be.

We have no source of "Truth" in this game other than our hind-sight.

This game is going to be about "hunches" from start to finish.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 3:09 pm

Chaosraven wrote:I have specifically endorsed this plan, and made note that Grund should be relatively immune to Nighttime attacks (as it will winnow the She-Wolf pool by 2), she will need to kill either Lassr or Bubbles or winnow the pool further

Chaosraven

Please remember my Villager status does not exempt Newcastle from Hewolf status.

Really. This is you helping us?

Good grief.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sun May 03, 2009 4:06 pm

Unagi wrote: So, we kill Chaosraven - and he turns up Good. Crap. His claim is meaningless though - as it may or may not be a villager.

Do you not see that?

well, I somewhat disagree here. If Chaos is good then Newcastle is not the She-wolf. It would be one more small piece to the puzzle for next round as we search for her. But I also agree we should be going after the strongest candidates for she-wolfdom. Just killing to get a piece of the puzzle as we search for her may take too long. Is there anything about Chaos that makes him a better target than theohall besides finding out someone else who can't be the she-wolf.

The one factor that would get me to vote for Chaos or Grund would be their late responses on who they were clearing, and then they picking someone that had not been picked so not to clear a another person of being the she-wolf.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun May 03, 2009 4:35 pm

Unagi, you are doing your best to ignore what I am saying. Here it is again.

I'm voting for chaos today so my hunch vote tomorrow has a better chance of being correct. You are not correct also. If chaos is a villager than Newcastle can not be the she-wolf. Do you know of another way to prove that?

My hunch vote will be tomorrow and I will be a lot better informed tomorrow to make it.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 5:49 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Unagi, you are doing your best to ignore what I am saying. Here it is again.

I'm voting for chaos today so my hunch vote tomorrow has a better chance of being correct. You are not correct also. If chaos is a villager than Newcastle can not be the she-wolf. Do you know of another way to prove that?

My hunch vote will be tomorrow and I will be a lot better informed tomorrow to make it.

My point is that any one of us can be a wolf - even if we aren't the She-wolf.

I am 1 million times NOT ignoring what you are saying Scoop.

You are saying (if Chaos = Good) you will learn if Newcastle is or isn't the She-wolf.... That will help you tomorrow - when you continue your hunt for the She-wolf.

I get it.

How long are you going to look for the She-wolf before you start just looking for any wolf?

What if we had 40 players - 8 wolves, and we each got the name of someone who wasn't Wolf-#1.

Would we sit and focus on just catching Wolf-#1, based on the big list of people that weren't on anyones "Not Wolf #1" list.

I think that would be just what Wolf #2 - #8 would want.

Yes, I totally see how this is not as dramatic as that - but it's just the baby version of that.
(arguably, we would be given a list of who wasn't Wolf 1-4.... but - I feel my point still is valid)

My main point is simply that we need to find 2 wolves - and these lists are a distraction that could force us to not look at behaviour.

Let's not forget there is still a chance the He-wolf named the She-wolf as his claim. This would be game-over for us, if we hold to the "lets find the she-wolf" approach.

The BEHAVIOR of Theohall is what has my radar singing. The fact that he was the first to name the dead guy is just one small part of it.

Lassr wrote:well, I somewhat disagree here. If Chaos is good then Newcastle is not the She-wolf.

We are not disagreeing. I said that if Chaos is good, then Newcastle may or may not be a villager. You didn't disagree with that point - so I will assume we are not in disagreeemet, correct me if I am wrong.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun May 03, 2009 6:22 pm

This really is fascinating. Unagi, I do think the is a chance chaosraven is a wolf. That's why I voted for him. Things and hunches are not always what we think they are. You looked at a chain of events and picked theohall. I see what you are saying and I agree so ewhat about him but it's not very solid like the other theories that have been expressed. I feel very good about my vote and your comments have only made me think so.

I appreciate your opinions however.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sun May 03, 2009 6:54 pm

Unagi wrote:
Lassr wrote:well, I somewhat disagree here. If Chaos is good then Newcastle is not the She-wolf.
We are not disagreeing. I said that if Chaos is good, then Newcastle may or may not be a villager. You didn't disagree with that point - so I will assume we are not in disagreeemet, correct me if I am wrong.

Unagi wrote:There is Nothing to be gained when/if we learn that Chaosraven was honest with his claim.

this was what I was disagreeing with, that there is nothing to be gained. But I know what you mean so never mind.

As I said I'm concentrating on finding the she-wolf now because that has the least suspects to choose from. I know we will not know which wolf we kill though that's why I said I'd rather go after the one that is acting the most wolfie which happens to be theohall which happens to also fall in the she-wolf possibilities.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 03, 2009 10:39 pm

theohall wrote: withdraw Semaj

Unagi

When you are good Theohall, you are much better than this. I mean that as a compliment.

Why was Semaj, (and now - me,) a better "test lynch" than someone like Chaosraven?

The death of Semaj would have revealed what?

Good Semaj = Honest Semaj

But his claim that Lassr isn't the She-wolf is backed up by Scoop. So there is no need to test his honesty.

Same applies for me - as both Lassr and I have claimed Mr Bubbles.

The Chaosraven and Grund votes, at the very least, result in learning something about their Claim's chances of being 1 of the wolves (as Scoop has described, and is absolutely correct).

Personally, I find that information to be of slim value, but you Theohall had said it was important to "pick from the list"... So, I ask you Theohall - why Semaj?

(I would ask you, "Why Unagi", but it was clear that was a counter-attack. However, if you care to - you can explain "Why Unagi" if you want as well...)

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun May 03, 2009 10:43 pm

Analyzing....

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun May 03, 2009 10:53 pm

Should be an interesting week of discussion. See you all on Monday.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 04, 2009 12:35 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:We have several ways to attack this problem and several criteria that can be used to make a decision. I still think the three "recognitions" of a dead Remus West need to be follow up.
We have two leads: the piggybacking phenomenon and the not-cleared data.

The folks implicated via a lack of clearance are:
Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

The folks cleared only by someone not cleared are:
Newcastle, Scoop20906

The folks implicated in the piggybacking on Remus thing are:
Mr. Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall

I've just re-read the entire thread. My logical left and intuitive right brains agree that we don't know jacques. With that in view, Lefty tells me that this analysis remains our best and only lead. Maybe theohall is innocent, but he's uncleared as She-Wolf and cleared the dead guy. It's rational, says Lefty, to vote down the guy who fits the profile.

That said, my right brain was tweaked by a few things here and there. But Righty was really only freaked out in full measure by one thing, and that's this post:

Newcastle wrote:here's the another thing i am thinking. The hewolf knows who the shewolf is. So therefore, he is going to try to do his best to not get them lynched...how? maybe misdirect, try to focus in on other people quickly. So maybe look for someone who is tryin to avoid getting too much heat on someone else.

I think if i were the hewolf i would also try in some way signal to the shewolf that i recognize them...how and even if they try is up to the player. But I think if I were the hewolf, i would try to send some sort of messsage to them. The last thing I think i would want as the hewolf, is to be the night kill. They lose a dayl, and gives the villagers another chance at finding either of them.

Just my two cents right now.

Maybe that's just Newcastle, but Righty couldn't help noticing how Newc was belaboring the "if I were the hewolf" thing, and making sure he was seen openly strategizing as if he-wolfy, and talking about signals, and then including a bunch of typos that look signally.

And it isn't the first time Newcastle has shown a lot of interest in he-wolf tactics.

Lefty tells me that this all comes on so strong that it couldn't possibly be the actual He-Wolf trying to signal the She-Wolf to recognize him and not to kill him. But righty tells me that not everyone has the same sense of what's subtle and what's strained, so maybe Newc is the He-Wolf.

So yeah. I'm voting with my left brain against theohall

However, I'm bothered enough by Newcastle's oddity that I would like to know whether anyone else finds it troubling.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon May 04, 2009 1:58 am

Unagi wrote:
Newcastle wrote:here's the another thing i am thinking. The hewolf knows who the shewolf is. So therefore, he is going to try to do his best to not get them lynched...how? maybe misdirect, try to focus in on other people quickly. So maybe look for someone who is tryin to avoid getting too much heat on someone else.

I think if i were the hewolf i would also try in some way signal to the shewolf that i recognize them...how and even if they try is up to the player. But I think if I were the hewolf, i would try to send some sort of messsage to them. The last thing I think i would want as the hewolf, is to be the night kill. They lose a dayl, and gives the villagers another chance at finding either of them.

Just my two cents right now.
So, ummm.... was this you signalling to Theohall that you are the he-wolf, and you know who he is ??

I had the same read, but thought everyone would think I was silly.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 04, 2009 2:46 am

think of it what you will, no harm in hypothezising. Guess, I should've reread more carefully what i was saying. Maybe edit it a bit more, maybe simply remove a few if's. Just too darn logical with that there Grund, you found me. I was simply thinking out loud and how I would play the wolf if I were indeed the wolf (get that there Grundy, I put if in there...wonder how many more times I could slip it in there and it rock your radar...oops - could that have been a clue). Guess that's what i get for tryin to go down the unbeaten path (oh, was that a clue grund?)

In the pot calling the kettle black department (oops coudl that be a clue?) would be curious to see what Semaj has to say though. It seems pretty clear that most people feel (and i do think they are right) that we will gain some nuggets of knowledge by tossing Theo to the wolves (oh, was that a slip grund? - ok i am having way too much fun with this). Seems that lassr, GRund, Lassr, bubbles and unagi are headed that way. while Scoops going after CR. Who's not really known yet? Semaj and myself.

I think we are overlooking the fact that the He-wolf could easily have named the shewolf as an innocent.

My question then is this - if theo comes up innocent - how do we proceeded - we only have 3 misses in this game. We would be then down to two. Do we go after Grund and CR?

IF theo comes up guilty - do we go after CR & GRund then; or do we focus fire on someone who quasi defended him (me?). Where do we go from there?

or would it be more, cross that bridge when we get to it?

It's all nice and dandy that we are looking at the logical constructs here. But I think we can also look a bit at behavior too. And yes Theo did act a bit sketchy, I will not deny that.

I guess am a little leery of a premature bandwagon, before more eggs have been broken mr. grund. (Oh, was that a clue?)

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 04, 2009 3:08 am

Ya know, i just had a brain storm....

What is the one thing that wolves do not want to happen, that they can reasonably prevent from happening? -a night w/ no kill. There is nothing to gain from a night of no kill. The wolves lose a chance to winnow the field. They lose their power. It seriously bucks the trend, and gives the good guys more opportunities to find more knowledge (at least I think it does...anyway, my brains a sizzling with this idea)

Now, with that thought...how do you prevent that? Easy, the hewolf, names the she wolf as the innocent. What does this accomplish -
1. THey are then linked up with each other. They can read what the other is doing. They can try to work together, but from a distance.
2. They also have plausible deniability on both ends. The He-wolf can always claim or make the argument that it must have been the shewolf (if things go south)...was in actuality the he-wolf...ie he duplicilty switches roles w/ the slain wolf.

This is a risky move, but it does give the She-wolf a veneer of protection. The worse thing that the shewolf can have is no having any claim whatsoever, the he-wolf knows that he has a chance of being named as an innocent, the she wolf doesnt.

This also enables the wolves to stall the clock out. Granted the hewolf would have to argue his balls off, shoudl the shewolf actually be lynched.

Now how do we find this...easy...look at those people who have only 1 claim of innocence attached to them.

(copied from Grund earlier)

Cleared thrice: Remus West (by Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall) (also confirmed by death)
Cleared twice: Mr Bubbles (by Lassr, Unagi); Lassr (by Scoop0906, Semaj)
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

Who fits into the singular category - Grund & CR.

So therefore potential links of She/he-wolf are -
Grund - scoop
CR- Newc.

Simply something to ponder is all. And yeah, am tryin to think how a wolf would play it.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 04, 2009 3:10 am

Newcastle wrote:think of it what you will, no harm in hypothezising. Guess, I should've reread more carefully what i was saying. Maybe edit it a bit more, maybe simply remove a few if's. Just too darn logical with that there Grund, you found me. I was simply thinking out loud and how I would play the wolf if I were indeed the wolf (get that there Grundy, I put if in there...wonder how many more times I could slip it in there and it rock your radar...oops - could that have been a clue). Guess that's what i get for tryin to go down the unbeaten path (oh, was that a clue grund?)

In the pot calling the kettle black department (oops coudl that be a clue?) would be curious to see what Semaj has to say though. It seems pretty clear that most people feel (and i do think they are right) that we will gain some nuggets of knowledge by tossing Theo to the wolves (oh, was that a slip grund? - ok i am having way too much fun with this). Seems that lassr, GRund, Lassr, bubbles and unagi are headed that way. while Scoops going after CR. Who's not really known yet? Semaj and myself.

I think we are overlooking the fact that the He-wolf could easily have named the shewolf as an innocent.

My question then is this - if theo comes up innocent - how do we proceeded - we only have 3 misses in this game. We would be then down to two. Do we go after Grund and CR?

IF theo comes up guilty - do we go after CR & GRund then; or do we focus fire on someone who quasi defended him (me?). Where do we go from there?

or would it be more, cross that bridge when we get to it?

It's all nice and dandy that we are looking at the logical constructs here. But I think we can also look a bit at behavior too. And yes Theo did act a bit sketchy, I will not deny that.

I guess am a little leery of a premature bandwagon, before more eggs have been broken mr. grund. (Oh, was that a clue?)

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 04, 2009 3:11 am

just looked at timing of the claims....

but scoop claimed lass prior to Grund claiming scoop innocent

Newc claimed Remus, prior to CR claiming Newc as innocent.

Hmm, that damages my theory a bit since I would think that the shewolf would come up with the claim post their clearance.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 04, 2009 3:25 am

Grundbegriff wrote:

sa-wweeeeet! i got the boggle from Grund! I know what's coming...the choo-choo special delivery from Grund...get them bandwagons a rolling there Mr. Grund, this should be a good old time.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon May 04, 2009 4:34 am

If being the first to post a name is what makes one guilty, guess I should've waited and been a bandwagon jumper instead. It's not like getting home from work, reading the board and posting has anything to do with when the post was written.

Go ahead and steamroll the villager. Not my problem now since the train is already rolling. Enjoy your victory wolves. I'd be concerned about someone (Unagi) not wanting to gain any possible additional information about the She-Wolf when they could also possible get the He-Wolf as well by lynching a not-cleared suspect.

The village gains the absolute least by killing someone whose claim is doubly verified, but that apparently doesn't matter. How the heck would either wolf know that two others would make the same claim??? Being first wouldn't be smart then, especially if no one else made that claim. This is a point that's boggling my mind when others are insisting their hunches about me are correct.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon May 04, 2009 4:40 am

Newcastle wrote:just looked at timing of the claims....

but scoop claimed lass prior to Grund claiming scoop innocent

Newc claimed Remus, prior to CR claiming Newc as innocent.

Hmm, that damages my theory a bit since I would think that the shewolf would come up with the claim post their clearance.

What actually fits your theory would be you as the She-Wolf piggybacking on someone else's claiming Remus West innocent, then the He-Wolf (CR) naming you so you know who he is.

Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:21 pm - Theohall clears Remus West

Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:34 pm - Newcastle clears Remus West

Fri May 01, 2009 8:55 am - Chaosraven clears Newcastle

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Mon May 04, 2009 5:42 am

For those not in the know, it's 6am EST. and I ma going to bed. When you don't hear form me until like...o... 1 or 2pm EST, don't think I am not avoiding this place or any such nonsense, thats when I wake up....

I'll see you all then, and have apparently a shit-ton more reading than I expected over the weekend.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon May 04, 2009 7:17 am

Monday Vote Tally

theohall acc Semaj (1)
Scoop acc Grund (1)
Scoop wd Grund (0)
Lassr acc theohall (1)
Unagi acc theohall (2)
theohall wd Semaj (0)
theohall acc Unagi (1)
Scoop acc Chaosraven (1)
Chaosraven acc Chaosraven (2)
Grundbegriff acc theohall (3)

Votes needed = 5

Against theohall (3): Lassr, Unagi, Grund
Against Unagi (1): theohall
Against Chaos (2): Scoop, Chaos