Octopus Overlords

theohall wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:

theohall wrote:Grundbegriff, your tools don't work.

Tools are just tools. There is no "work" apart from the one employing them. If you don't like them, make your own.

I already did and they don't include your obfuscations.

What exactly do you find obfuscated? It seems quite clear to me, and I included no intentional obfuscation.

Wouldn't Gollum at least be sort of clear how his own ability works? I dunno if Grundbegriff is Team Shadow, but if he's Gollum he's got me fooled.

Grundbegriff wrote:

theohall wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:

theohall wrote:Grundbegriff, your tools don't work.

Tools are just tools. There is no "work" apart from the one employing them. If you don't like them, make your own.

I already did and they don't include your obfuscations.

What exactly do you find obfuscated? It seems quite clear to me, and I included no intentional obfuscation.

Your claim of hobbitude when you could be Gollum or something completely different. That's obfuscating the rest of us. Intentionally. Just like the supposed multiple Gollum theft attempts.

theohall wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:What exactly do you find obfuscated? It seems quite clear to me, and I included no intentional obfuscation.

Your claim of hobbitude when you could be Gollum or something completely different. That's obfuscating the rest of us. Intentionally. Just like the supposed multiple Gollum theft attempts.

No, it's different. If you look back at all the roster summaries I've ever made, I always include myself as innocent if I am.

I find the "I'm innocent and I know I'm innocent but I'm going to bracket that out for the sake of objectivity" maneuver to be distasteful, artificial, and potentially confusing.

I'm a hobbit, and I'm objectively a hobbit, so it would be nonsense for me to pretend otherwise, even for the sake of argument or false neutrality.

The question mark by Bubbles acknowledges the 1% chance that Evil is playing the situation the way I would play it (which would be to imprison someone who wasn't even Frodo precisely to turn all the attention there).

Grundbegriff wrote: The question mark by Bubbles acknowledges the 1% chance that Evil is playing the situation the way I would play it (which would be to imprison someone who wasn't even Frodo precisely to turn all the attention there).

In that situation, how do you explain the Fellowship not being in control of the ring the same turn as Bubbles being imprisoned?

I'll say this: you're on a roll this game.

Remus reminds me so much of Newcastle when El Guapo outed him in the Star Wars game that the chances of him being not evil are next to zero.

Also, why would evil out one of their own in this game?

triggercut wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote: The question mark by Bubbles acknowledges the 1% chance that Evil is playing the situation the way I would play it (which would be to imprison someone who wasn't even Frodo precisely to turn all the attention there).

In that situation, how do you explain the Fellowship not being in control of the ring the same turn as Bubbles being imprisoned?

I'll say this: you're on a roll this game.

Grund is way off this game, from saying Gollum can steal multiple times to calling Mr. Bubbles Bilbo.

triggercut wrote:In that situation, how do you explain the Fellowship not being in control of the ring the same turn as Bubbles being imprisoned?

Bubbles is Frodo. I've said as much from the dawn of this day. I don't feel threatened by leaving a 1% margin for possibilities I haven't conceived or construed.

pr0ner wrote:Grund is way off this game, from saying Gollum can steal multiple times to calling Mr. Bubbles Bilbo.

It was a Frodian Slip.

Grundbegriff wrote:

triggercut wrote:In that situation, how do you explain the Fellowship not being in control of the ring the same turn as Bubbles being imprisoned?

Bubbles is Frodo. I've said as much from the dawn of this day. I don't feel threatened by leaving a 1% margin for possibilities I haven't conceived or construed.

Right. But by rule the ring cannot corrupt Frodo until the final turn, so....?

Grund is making alot of mistakes this game. Gandalf should scan him next

I've pushed to lynch Grund twice before for making mistakes in games and both times he was good. I don't think he is our remaining evil, but may be trying to flush out info. I also think it would be a smart Gollum play to come out as an hobbit then to totally misquote the Gollum rules.

If I were anything other than a hobbit, I'd tell you so.

Grundbegriff wrote:If I were anything other than a hobbit, I'd tell you so.

Too funny.

theohall wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:If I were anything other than a hobbit, I'd tell you so.

Too funny.

I have the track record to back it up.

I believe technically Gollum was an Hobbit, just a very ancient one.

Leaving aside Grund's sincerity for the moment, I would like to get back to the more immediate question, RW or Q? Who do we send scouting first and why?

bb2112 wrote:I believe technically Gollum was an Hobbit, just a very ancient one.

I think the River Folk were like Hobbits, but not identical to them.

Leaving aside Grund's sincerity for the moment, I would like to get back to the more immediate question, RW or Q? Who do we send scouting first and why?

Let's bracket out the scenario in which theohall has found Witch-King and Uruk, and let's suppose that either RW xor Q is Saruman.

How would Saruman behave?

Consider Qantaga's tells.
(A) When good, he engages often, engages logically, and engages in a way others find useful.
(B) When evil, he engages less often but tries to put in an appearance in emulation of (A), and he engages logically but in a way that entails no commitment on his part.

What he's doing now is neither (A) nor (B), but rather (C): keeping a very low profile.

Something must account for that. Let's assume that in-game factors, rather than meta-factors, account for it. Being the WK would not induce such behavior, nor would being the Uruk-hai. Being Saruman might very well induce such behavior.

Odds are strong that Qantaga is Saruman.

The question, then, is whether it's more beneficial to force Frodo to deal with his Ring issues tonight or tomorrow. How long do we want to play hot potato? How many rounds of hot potato can we sustain without fumbling?

If we go with more nights by nuking Saruman now, then it'll be difficult to avoid giving the Ring to the wrong person, but at least we'll have time to deal with that crisis if/when it arises.

If we go with fewer nights by nuking Saruman tomorrow, then it'll be a bit easier to avoid giving the Ring to the wrong person, but we'll have less time to deal with that crisis if/when it arises.

Do we want extra time for remedies with higher odds of blundering?
Or do we want less time for remedies with lower odds of blundering?

I think less Ring passing is better.

theohall wrote:I think less Ring passing is better.

This is a double edged sword, as we have to pass some, but I agree with the thought that less is better. But we have to pass to ensure that team evil has no idea where the ring is at.

Grundbegriff wrote:

theohall wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:If I were anything other than a hobbit, I'd tell you so.

Too funny.

I have the track record to back it up.

Would that include claiming to be an Imperial Guard in the Star Wars game, while actually being a rebel?

Still, I think everyone except Mr. Bubbles has checked in. With no good reason for a hobbit to remain quiet, this puts Grund as our fourth hobbit... undoubtably part of the Sacksville-Baggins family.

Grundbegriff wrote:

pr0ner wrote:Grund is way off this game, from saying Gollum can steal multiple times to calling Mr. Bubbles Bilbo.

It was a Frodian Slip.

1) We HAVE to kill Saruman
2) We (probably) will need to find and kill Gollum
3) We don't necessarily need to kill WK or UH, or at least not until after Gollum.

Grund's analysis rings true, Q is probably Saruman laying low. We should take him out first and then see what happens with the ring.

 withdraw Remus West 
 


The logical thing is for Bubbles to pass it before Gollum can steal it, but since we don't know who Gollum is, we can't metagame him so there's no guarantee there. In other words we have to find Gollum. He knows we have to find him. We're in a pickle.

Do we go for Qantaga who seems more likely to be Saruman, or Remus West who seems to be calling for his own death? I prefer Qantaga, even with the additional ring passing (due to more time to react if Gollum manages to grab the ring after we free Frodo).

Assuming we have found (or do find) and kill Saruman, it all comes down to night 7 for team evil. If they grab any hobbit earlier, we scout them free. Gollum is the wildcard - when will he try for his grab? His best hope is to let us kill off a few folks, hope that the ring bearer is captured late game, and ASAP after we scout the ringbearer free Gollum makes his grab for the ring.

Who is Gollum? Who is the third evil? If the third evil is Saruman, we're still up a creek, looking for a wizard.
Gollum is out there, watching, waiting. He's hoping to stay under the radar, that only other folks will get scanned.
A-HA, we'll just look for folks calling for an innocent to be scanned... who has called for Grund to be scanned... oh. Everyone.

Not moving my vote from Remus cause at this point we are only speculating who owns which role.

Interesting analysis by Grundbegriff and agree that having Saruman hold the ring for safekeeping is an intriguing strategy for keeping ring-passes to a minimum.

The problem becomes that we are now in Chapter 3. Let's say we do not send Qantaga or Remus off to Scout today and choose another. Now....We then send Q off to scout on Chapter 4. What if Bubbles remains imprisoned? We then send Remus off to scout on Chapter 5. Same deal--what if Bubbles is still in Isengard?

Logic says that Gandalf is likely to be gone by then. How many scans will he have? Will he turn up the last Shadow by then and be able to share it? What will our pool of known/unknowns look like? I'm just fearful at sitting at Chapter 6 with Bubbles imprisoned and Gollum at large. That's the nightmare scenario right there, because:

1. If we do guess right and finally free Bubbles during Chapter 6 but Gollum is alive, then
2. Gollum seizes the ring at that Chapter and enters Journey 7 with likely no Shadow to hunt him and wins the game....or...
3. If we fail to free Frodo on Chapter 6, that brings up a big fat rules conundrum: can the Fellowship win even if they send Saruman scouting during Chapter 7? It frees Frodo....but leaves him in possession of the ring and if that turn is then over, he's unable to pass which is a victory condition for the bad guys.

Lagom: if Frodo has been imprisoned or captured while holding the ring and is freed by sending his captor to scout (or freed by Hunt Some Orc), is that the end of the Chapter? Specifically, if that happens while Frodo is the ringbearer in Chapter 7 (and his Imprisonment/Captured state obviously prevents him from passing the ring until being freed) does he get an opportunity to pass the ring upon being freed or is that considered the end of the chapter. That would leave Frodo in possession of the ring at the end of Chapter 7, and would result in a Shadow win, correct?

(If that ends up being what Lagom's interpretation is, I'm not sure we can wait on sending Qantaga or Remus scouting.)

triggercut wrote:Lagom: if Frodo has been imprisoned or captured while holding the ring and is freed by sending his captor to scout (or freed by Hunt Some Orc), is that the end of the Chapter? Specifically, if that happens while Frodo is the ringbearer in Chapter 7 (and his Imprisonment/Captured state obviously prevents him from passing the ring until being freed) does he get an opportunity to pass the ring upon being freed or is that considered the end of the chapter. That would leave Frodo in possession of the ring at the end of Chapter 7, and would result in a Shadow win, correct?

(If that ends up being what Lagom's interpretation is, I'm not sure we can wait on sending Qantaga or Remus scouting.)

Teh Rulez wrote:The Servants of the Eye wins if:
At the end of the 7th Journey: If the Servants of the Eye controls the One Ring, the Servants of the Eye wins.

If Frodo is still in jail at the start of Chapter 7 we are already done. There's no scout on day 7.

We have to choose someone to scout no matter what. It is not optional, so we basically have two choices here. Scout Remus or scout Qantaga. Either one could be Saruman or neither could be. I think we are overthinking this whole thing. Unless someone is suggesting we avoid both Remus and Qan and take a shot in the dark, I really dont think it matters much which one we pick. I think the odds are better that Qan is Saruman but the servants could be playing us either way. I say we roll the dice, choose one and let fate show us our path. We either hit Saurman or we dont and we make our plans accordingly. Agonizing over which one may be Saruman is getting us no where and in the end we cant possibly know who is until after we choose.
If the servants are trying to hide Saruman in shadows, then its likely Qan, if they are trying to hide him in plain sight by making us think its Qan, then its likely Remus. Frankly either one is just as likely so lets make a choice and move on.

coopasonic wrote:

triggercut wrote:Lagom: if Frodo has been imprisoned or captured while holding the ring and is freed by sending his captor to scout (or freed by Hunt Some Orc), is that the end of the Chapter? Specifically, if that happens while Frodo is the ringbearer in Chapter 7 (and his Imprisonment/Captured state obviously prevents him from passing the ring until being freed) does he get an opportunity to pass the ring upon being freed or is that considered the end of the chapter. That would leave Frodo in possession of the ring at the end of Chapter 7, and would result in a Shadow win, correct?

(If that ends up being what Lagom's interpretation is, I'm not sure we can wait on sending Qantaga or Remus scouting.)

Teh Rulez wrote:The Servants of the Eye wins if:
At the end of the 7th Journey: If the Servants of the Eye controls the One Ring, the Servants of the Eye wins.

If Frodo is still in jail at the start of Chapter 7 we are already done. There's no scout on day 7.

So that answers that. Thanks.

Basically, if we decide to let Saruman safe-keep Frodo for a Chapter, I think we are taking a calculated gamble that we've already identified Saruman, and/or that Gandalf will successfully scan him and be able share that knowledge before the forces of Shadow catch up to him. Not saying that it isn't a high-percentage gamble to take....but I think we need to assess which play is riskier.

Oh and dont assume we have any scans left. The Servants didnt get a successful hunt last nite. It is to their benefit to hunt since it would either capture someone, giving Frodo one less person to pass to if freed, or kill someone, possibly a special improving their odds substantially. Frankly I can see no good reason for the Servants not to hunt last night, so it is likely they were blocked. Even though the odds are not great it was Gandalf they targeted, it is possible. They may well kill him tonite in that case and we will have no scans left. Just figured we should be aware of the possibility that we have seen our last scan. Of course evil may not care about Gandalf scanning at this point because its just as likely that he finds Gollum, who is just as worrisome to them as he is to us. They may let him scan and take the risk, hoping he does find Gollum.

Interesting rule set here LL, theres even room for evil and good to work together to remove Gollum as a threat.

i am bothered by Q's silence. I am wondering if (as rshetts noted) he's trying to hide in plain sight and draw attention...and draw a lynch or if he's quiet hoping to skate through this chapter.

Then remus has been seriously off today; i'd expect him to do more squirming and finger pointing as well...so thats strange as heck....

So we got two evils.....and they are both acting peculiar.....to what end?

Its clear that no ones has contested Theodalf (see what i did there .....he's got to be Gandalf; which brings me to another question...why didnt evil even try to contest theo? At least spoof him for petes sake....why havent they.

Why the peculiar behavior? And why not contest Theo?

those two questions are bothering me.

As to wether we free saruman or not....right now its a crap shot with both of them i think...they each have a chance at being saruman....and they migh tnot be,,,,,actually...now that i think of it...maybe they are acting weird...because they WANT to get lynched....maybe neither of em are saruman...and they realize their deaths only serves to prolong the game in their favor. So if neither are saruman we'll be entering...what day 5, with 2 swings left to find evil....

I think its super important also folks that we try thinking who their partner could be...if we whiff on those two....we should at least be thinking of who else could be evil...because at best theodalf will be getting us 1 more scan for the circle of trust....

Going to back to do we lynch saruman or not question....lets say we do lynch him today ...that means we need 4 sucessful tosses....if we dont lynch him.....then we need 3 sucessful tosses between hobbits....i think its a toss up here.... if we toss it more...then if either of hte trusted hobbits (by my book truicy & bb)....turn out to be gollum we have a chance at getting it back...BUT gollum could very well toss it to anyone upon his death....and BOOM its out of our control.

I almost think getting the ring freed up ASAP gives us more wiggle room in case gollum steals it; the downside i can see is that it will most likely be in bubbles possession on 2 journeys...unless we can figure out an additional trusted hobbit.

And having just said that....i think 3 ring tosses gives us less room to maneuver, but also exposes us to less vulnerability....

upsides and downsides to both....actually i htink i changed my mind...IF we knew for sure who saruman was.....i think we should lynch him tomorrow.... i think it exposes the ring to less risk over the long term, we also have the chance of theo hall providing us w/ one more scan.....clearing hte field a bit more for us.

Also gollum has 1 attempt at pinching the ring as well...so its going to be a nervewracker on him....to swipe it....IF i were him, i would try to swipe the ring later in the journey than not...that would take a bit of guesswork as well. Actually why risk being lynched w/ the ring in tow.... i would think he would try to steal it as late in teh game as possible...

I think for now....i trust in Truicy & BB being hobbits....and not gollum....just the wway they've played, i've got more trust in them.....Grund not, but his early behavior raised red flags....today his behavior has changed drastically...for better or worse...who knows.

after having written all that up...i think if we can delay releasing bubbles by a day, that greatly benefits us.....if we can release bubbles tomorrow that is a good play. Its consevative but it also exposes us to less risk over the long term with the added advantage of theo possibly clearing another player.

So my vote will swing to whomever we think IS NOT saruman today.

 withdraw Qantaga 
 


I am honestly not sure who i think could be saruman between Qantaga & remus...both of their play is odd....
how they are acting is bothering me greatly...both screaming to be lynched....

We have to lynch either Remus or Q today....1 has to go down.

thinking it through a bit more...I'd think Q is saruman...based on his early game behavior...i think his actions today are an attempt muddy the waters.....he was acting earlier like ea ghost, just wafting through the game w/ no imprints.....

i think we lynch remus today.....am happy to vote that way also.........just dont want to vote yet to facilitate discussion.

All this speculation is great but the only problem is the Fellowship has no idea who Sauraman really is. Send Remus or Qantaga scouting those are our choices

triggercut wrote:Lagom: if Frodo has been imprisoned or captured while holding the ring and is freed by sending his captor to scout (or freed by Hunt Some Orc), is that the end of the Chapter? Specifically, if that happens while Frodo is the ringbearer in Chapter 7 (and his Imprisonment/Captured state obviously prevents him from passing the ring until being freed) does he get an opportunity to pass the ring upon being freed or is that considered the end of the chapter. That would leave Frodo in possession of the ring at the end of Chapter 7, and would result in a Shadow win, correct?

Correct. If the Ringbearer is captured or imprisoned at the end of Journey 7, Servants win.

Remus West (4) - theohall, coopasonic, rshetts2, triggercut, bb2112, Grundbegriff, tru1cy
Qantaga (2) - Grundbegriff, rshetts2, RMC, Newcastle


Majority is 7

Deadline is Friday October 21st, at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

We know we are voting for one of two people. So it's a 50-50 chance we hit Saruman, but only if one of them is Saruman.
We do not know if one of them is actually Saruman, so we might end up offing both of them and still not getting Saruman.

I guess I think we should take out the non-saruman first, as it gives us a little more wiggle room with passing the ring around. But we need to hope that Gandalf finds us more targets if neither of these are Saruman.

So I guess I am saying I will leave my vote where it is, but switch if you all want me to.

RMC wrote:We know we are voting for one of two people. So it's a 50-50 chance we hit Saruman, but only if one of them is Saruman.
We do not know if one of them is actually Saruman, so we might end up offing both of them and still not getting Saruman.

I guess I think we should take out the non-saruman first, as it gives us a little more wiggle room with passing the ring around. But we need to hope that Gandalf finds us more targets if neither of these are Saruman.

So I guess I am saying I will leave my vote where it is, but switch if you all want me to.

+1

We know we are going to take out one today, and most likely the other tomorrow. I say to cut down on the hot potato issue with the ring, we should try and take out the one we think is NOT Saruman first.

Based on that logic, I believe we should target Remus first then Q tomorrow. If I'm wrong, and RW is Saruman, then as Tru1cy stated, we will deal with it. If neither are Saruman, then we at least know where the ring is for a couple of days while we try to pinpoint him. Not ideal, but probably the best we are going to get under the circumstances.

BTW, does anyone else think Coop is acting a little strange?

bb2112 wrote:BTW, does anyone else think Coop is acting a little strange?

Nope. He's quieter than normal but he's doing his usual thing.

I really think we need to take out Saruman ASAP, make sure we got him and then start the hunt for Gollum. If we get Saruman today, I'm not even sure we need to take out the other identified evil. Unless we can completely eliminate evil, killing anyone other than Saruman doesn't seem to help much. Gollum becomes a bigger priority IMO.

coopasonic wrote:

bb2112 wrote:BTW, does anyone else think Coop is acting a little strange?

Nope. He's quieter than normal but he's doing his usual thing.

I really think we need to take out Saruman ASAP, make sure we got him and then start the hunt for Gollum. If we get Saruman today, I'm not even sure we need to take out the other identified evil. Unless we can completely eliminate evil, killing anyone other than Saruman doesn't seem to help much. Gollum becomes a bigger priority IMO.

There are 4 more Journeys. The Ring will successfully have to pass around 4 times if we free Frodo right now. What are the odds of doing that successfully without hitting Gollum, who then decides the game, or accidentally passing to a Free Person resulting in them serving Evil and acting accordingly? The fewer passes the better.

Does the ring HAVE to pass 4 times? Passing the ring is really just to avoid Gollum and Evil right? If Gollum gets his hands on it, we are in trouble and need as much time as we can get. On the other hand Gollum really only gets one shot unless we hand it to him. If Evil gets it, getting it back is fairly easy and they have to contend with protection.

Now that I am thinking about it, if Gollum gets the ring we are SOL. Even if we find and lynch Gollum he can pass the ring to anyone and he might not reward us for lynching him. Finding and lynching Gollum and then finding and lynching whoever he passes it to...

I've pretty much talked myself into leaving Bubbles imprisoned until Chapter 6, kill off who we *don't* think is Saruman and who we think might be Gollum and then do the ring dance we are discussing now in Chapter 6 rather than 3.

 Qantaga 
 


I prefer to have more time to react if problems occur during the freeing of the ringbearer. I think we're more likely to free the ringbearer by scouting Qantaga.

If there is a hobbit out there still keeping quiet, that hobbit is making incorrect decisions.
If someone passes the ring to someone other than {Mr. Bubbles|Grundbegriff|BB2112|Tru1cy} that someone is making incorrect decisions.
We can't incorrect-decision proof the game.

God Bless Us Everyone!