Octopus Overlords

Lagom Lite wrote:

Holman wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:Actually, reading through the thread

 El Guapo 
 
comes off as non-committal.

Committed (or not) to what?

Often, you get wolves who sneak around the edges, trying to seem like they're participating while not actually adding anything of substance nor committing to a vote.

That's my general MO in these games, really - I play the Iago fretting about one player and then the next. Often eventually there's a string of votes while I'm out and someone gets strung up. Think of me as the anti-theohall in that respect.

I get your reasoning, but if you care to go back and look at past WW games I've been in you'll get what I'm saying.

Qantaga wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote: It's entirely possible that the wolves are trying to make us focus on your (Vorret, Holman, bb2112) involvement in that debacle, getting us to lynch you guys.

Another option is that bb2112 was on to something, or someone (RMC was it?).

RMC wrote:Not sure why they would kill BB off, unless he was on somewhat of a good track.

I find it interesting that both Lagom (a very experienced player) and RMC (an experienced player) don't mention the most likely reason for bb's death.

Wouldn' it go something like this:
- bb kills theo without waiting to hear if theo had something to say.
- Wolves gamble that bb is Seer who knew theo's death wouldn't hurt the village (even if theo is Shooter, the shot doesn't always help the village anyway) and that bb was happy to get to night and get his first scan.
- With little else to go on, wolves target bb as possible Seer.

Qantaga's guess seems pretty reasonable to me. The other thought I had going into the night is that bb was probably the *least* likely wolf. bb casting the killing vote on theo on day 1 without waiting for him to talk would be an incredibly stupid thing for a wolf to do, as it would make him look bad AND draw a lot of attention to him. So maybe that was the idea - off him because his stupidity would make him look the least wolfy?

It is the wolf's job this early in the game to find the seer. Kills at night just to frame someone is dumb unless they also think that person is the seer.
As the seer had not had a scan on day 1 then about the only clue they may have had is BB's reckless vote. As Q stated, BB voted as if he knew it wouldn't hurt the village.

Lassr wrote:It is the wolf's job this early in the game to find the seer. Kills at night just to frame someone is dumb unless they also think that person is the seer.
As the seer had not had a scan on day 1 then about the only clue they may have had is BB's reckless vote. As Q stated, BB voted as if he knew it wouldn't hurt the village.

So... let's say we count BB vote as a pure mistake.
Mine + Holman as a pure newbie move
We're left with Pr0ner who was the 5th vote (and not talking much).

Is that it? Am I missing something here?

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:It is the wolf's job this early in the game to find the seer. Kills at night just to frame someone is dumb unless they also think that person is the seer.
As the seer had not had a scan on day 1 then about the only clue they may have had is BB's reckless vote. As Q stated, BB voted as if he knew it wouldn't hurt the village.

So... let's say we count BB vote as a pure mistake.
Mine + Holman as a pure newbie move
We're left with Pr0ner who was the 5th vote (and not talking much).

Is that it? Am I missing something here?

Newbies add to the mix, as they would be more likely as a wolf to 'pile' on at the end and get away with it. <shrug>

But the wolf on BB, if there is one, is most likely one of the first few.

Theohall (8) - Remus West, Lagom Lite, Qantaga, RMC, Proner, Holman, Vorret, BB2112,

So most likely not RW, as he is too wiley as a wolf to be the first vote.

If we ignore the last two not BB [For the newbie factor]

That leaves: Lagom Lite, Qantaga, RMC, Proner

So one of the four of us is most likely a wolf. Q wants to point the finger at myself and LL. I want to point the finger at Proner. I know I am not a wolf.

<shrug>

But I think one of the three left(4 for everyone else, if you like my logic) is a wolf:

Lagom Lite, Qantaga, or Pr0ner

I say Pr0ner, since he is quiet.

 Pr0ner 
 


That's the rest of the story, pardner.

Since RMC is (and others may be) basing decisions on voting sequence, let's clear something up before it goes much further:

Newcastle truncated an early theohall vote and recorded it as thus:

Newcastle wrote:Votes -

Scoop (1) - Holman,
Qantaga (1)- Mr. Bubbles,
Holman (2)- Truicy, Vorret,
Theohall (1) - Qantaga,
RMC (2) - Scoop, Theohall,
Theohall (2) - Remus West, Lagom Lite,
Proner (1) - El Guapo,

Majority is 8

No Votes Cast - Proner, Lassr, RMC, BB2112,


If I missed anything or if there any corrections to be made, please let me know.

As you can see, he had theohall as receiving one vote from me and two from Remus and Lagom.

While this is a minor clerical point, it should be noted that the correct chronology of the theohall execution was:

Qantaga, Remus West, Lagom Lite, RMC, pr0ner, Holman, Vorret, bb2112.

Qantaga wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote: It's entirely possible that the wolves are trying to make us focus on your (Vorret, Holman, bb2112) involvement in that debacle, getting us to lynch you guys.

Another option is that bb2112 was on to something, or someone (RMC was it?).

RMC wrote:Not sure why they would kill BB off, unless he was on somewhat of a good track.

I find it interesting that both Lagom (a very experienced player) and RMC (an experienced player) don't mention the most likely reason for bb's death.

Wouldn' it go something like this:
- bb kills theo without waiting to hear if theo had something to say.
- Wolves gamble that bb is Seer who knew theo's death wouldn't hurt the village (even if theo is Shooter, the shot doesn't always help the village anyway) and that bb was happy to get to night and get his first scan.
- With little else to go on, wolves target bb as possible Seer.

Really? That's the most likely reason for bb2112's death? That's the dumbest thing I've heard in this thread yet.

First, if bb2112 was the Seer he wouldn't go out of his way to attract attention to himself like that - he made himself a prime lynch target for today. I don't buy the double bluff idea - it's too convoluted. I don't think bb2112 is that complex.

Second, if bb2112 knew theohall was innocent he wouldn't have voted for him.

Thirdly, bb2112 didn't know of theohall's innocence (or guilt) because, as Lassr, pointed out, the Seer didn't get a scan before Day 1.

Seeing El Guapo agreeing with you makes me feel better about my vote for him.

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:It is the wolf's job this early in the game to find the seer. Kills at night just to frame someone is dumb unless they also think that person is the seer.
As the seer had not had a scan on day 1 then about the only clue they may have had is BB's reckless vote. As Q stated, BB voted as if he knew it wouldn't hurt the village.

So... let's say we count BB vote as a pure mistake.
Mine + Holman as a pure newbie move
We're left with Pr0ner who was the 5th vote (and not talking much).

Is that it? Am I missing something here?

It would be awesome if Vorret and Holman are wolves.

RMC, killing pr0ner because he's quiet is like killing Scoop because he's not.

I also disagree with RMC concerning Remus West... I'm not writing him off at all, as he's a very difficult player to read.

Qantaga wrote:Since RMC is (and others may be) basing decisions on voting sequence, let's clear something up before it goes much further:

Newcastle truncated an early theohall vote and recorded it as thus:

Newcastle wrote:Votes -

Scoop (1) - Holman,
Qantaga (1)- Mr. Bubbles,
Holman (2)- Truicy, Vorret,
Theohall (1) - Qantaga,
RMC (2) - Scoop, Theohall,
Theohall (2) - Remus West, Lagom Lite,
Proner (1) - El Guapo,

Majority is 8

No Votes Cast - Proner, Lassr, RMC, BB2112,


If I missed anything or if there any corrections to be made, please let me know.

As you can see, he had theohall as receiving one vote from me and two from Remus and Lagom.

While this is a minor clerical point, it should be noted that the correct chronology of the theohall execution was:

Qantaga, Remus West, Lagom Lite, RMC, pr0ner, Holman, Vorret, bb2112.

My apologies. Qantaga's correction is correct.

Lagom Lite wrote:First, if bb2112 was the Seer he wouldn't go out of his way to attract attention to himself like that - he made himself a prime lynch target for today. I don't buy the double bluff idea - it's too convoluted. I don't think bb2112 is that complex.

It's not a matter of bb wanting to draw attention to himself. It's that, with a lack of any other evidence to go on, the wolves would gamble that bb had made a mistake in his eagerness to make sure he lived to see the night.

This exact scenario has played out before as the reason for a player's death... and I think you know it.

I'm hopeful that bb is not the Seer. All i'm saying is that the reason bb died is because the wolves were hoping bb was the Seer, with no other guesses to go by.

Lagom Lite wrote:Second, if bb2112 knew theohall was innocent he wouldn't have voted for him.

Thirdly, bb2112 didn't know of theohall's innocence (or guilt) because, as Lassr, pointed out, the Seer didn't get a scan before Day 1.

Where did I ever say bb2112 knew that theohall was innocent? I think bb was hopng that theo was a wolf. I said the the wolves' assumption would be that bb2112 knew that theohall's death would not hurt the village.

El Guapo wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:

Holman wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:Actually, reading through the thread

 El Guapo 
 
comes off as non-committal.

Committed (or not) to what?

Often, you get wolves who sneak around the edges, trying to seem like they're participating while not actually adding anything of substance nor committing to a vote.

That's my general MO in these games, really - I play the Iago fretting about one player and then the next. Often eventually there's a string of votes while I'm out and someone gets strung up. Think of me as the anti-theohall in that respect.

I get your reasoning, but if you care to go back and look at past WW games I've been in you'll get what I'm saying.

That's an interesting response. Instead of explaining your actions, you're (falsely) interpreting your own general behavior. Did I hit a nerve there?

Lagom Lite wrote: Really? That's the most likely reason for bb2112's death? That's the dumbest thing I've heard in this thread yet.

Oh, and thanks!

Qantaga wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:First, if bb2112 was the Seer he wouldn't go out of his way to attract attention to himself like that - he made himself a prime lynch target for today. I don't buy the double bluff idea - it's too convoluted. I don't think bb2112 is that complex.

It's not a matter of bb wanting to draw attention to himself. It's that, with a lack of any other evidence to go on, the wolves would gamble that bb had made a mistake in his eagerness to make sure he lived to see the night.

This exact scenario has played out before as the reason for a player's death... and I think you know it.

I'm hopeful that bb is not the Seer. All i'm saying is that the reason bb died is because the wolves were hoping bb was the Seer, with no other guesses to go by.

Lagom Lite wrote:Second, if bb2112 knew theohall was innocent he wouldn't have voted for him.

Thirdly, bb2112 didn't know of theohall's innocence (or guilt) because, as Lassr, pointed out, the Seer didn't get a scan before Day 1.

Where did I ever say bb2112 knew that theohall was innocent? I think bb was hopng that theo was a wolf. I said the the wolves' assumption would be that bb2112 knew that theohall's death would not hurt the village.

Alright, I misunderstood what you were saying but I get it now.

Qantaga wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote: Really? That's the most likely reason for bb2112's death? That's the dumbest thing I've heard in this thread yet.

Oh, and thanks!

Yeah, yeah, sorry about that.

Trending good:
Qantaga
RMC
Mr Bubbles

Lagom Lite wrote:I also disagree with RMC concerning Remus West... I'm not writing him off at all, as he's a very difficult player to read.

I was not saying he was not a wolf, just playing the odds. But since he was really the second vote, and not the first, then that puts him into my triad of possible wolfyness and takes Q out.

But my vote is staying on Pr0ner, if he is a silent villager he becomes someone else for the wolves to hide behind.

If he is a wolf, then good I found one.

Of course, I can be swayed to change my vote easy enough.

I can't vote yet. I just don't see enough.

Keep it coming!

I want to test  Remus West 
 


Unless the seer is a rookie, there is a good chance Remus will not get scanned since he is often an early lynch target. Better safe than sorry. He was on my short list in round 1 and I see no reason to remove him from my list.

Lassr wrote:I want to test  Remus West 
 


Unless the seer is a rookie, there is a good chance Remus will not get scanned since he is often an early lynch target. Better safe than sorry. He was on my short list in round 1 and I see no reason to remove him from my list.

While I won't jump on just yet, this is a vote I can get behind. Remus West, 2013.

RMC wrote:

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:It is the wolf's job this early in the game to find the seer. Kills at night just to frame someone is dumb unless they also think that person is the seer.
As the seer had not had a scan on day 1 then about the only clue they may have had is BB's reckless vote. As Q stated, BB voted as if he knew it wouldn't hurt the village.

So... let's say we count BB vote as a pure mistake.
Mine + Holman as a pure newbie move
We're left with Pr0ner who was the 5th vote (and not talking much).

Is that it? Am I missing something here?

Newbies add to the mix, as they would be more likely as a wolf to 'pile' on at the end and get away with it. <shrug>

But the wolf on BB, if there is one, is most likely one of the first few.

Theohall (8) - Remus West, Lagom Lite, Qantaga, RMC, Proner, Holman, Vorret, BB2112,

So most likely not RW, as he is too wiley as a wolf to be the first vote.

If we ignore the last two not BB [For the newbie factor]

That leaves: Lagom Lite, Qantaga, RMC, Proner

So one of the four of us is most likely a wolf. Q wants to point the finger at myself and LL. I want to point the finger at Proner. I know I am not a wolf.

<shrug>

But I think one of the three left(4 for everyone else, if you like my logic) is a wolf:

Lagom Lite, Qantaga, or Pr0ner

I say Pr0ner, since he is quiet.

 Pr0ner 
 


That's the rest of the story, pardner.

So you want to vote for me because I was on the Theohall vote and because I'm quiet?

That's some good logic there.

pr0ner wrote:

RMC wrote:

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:It is the wolf's job this early in the game to find the seer. Kills at night just to frame someone is dumb unless they also think that person is the seer.
As the seer had not had a scan on day 1 then about the only clue they may have had is BB's reckless vote. As Q stated, BB voted as if he knew it wouldn't hurt the village.

So... let's say we count BB vote as a pure mistake.
Mine + Holman as a pure newbie move
We're left with Pr0ner who was the 5th vote (and not talking much).

Is that it? Am I missing something here?

Newbies add to the mix, as they would be more likely as a wolf to 'pile' on at the end and get away with it. <shrug>

But the wolf on BB, if there is one, is most likely one of the first few.

Theohall (8) - Remus West, Lagom Lite, Qantaga, RMC, Proner, Holman, Vorret, BB2112,

So most likely not RW, as he is too wiley as a wolf to be the first vote.

If we ignore the last two not BB [For the newbie factor]

That leaves: Lagom Lite, Qantaga, RMC, Proner

So one of the four of us is most likely a wolf. Q wants to point the finger at myself and LL. I want to point the finger at Proner. I know I am not a wolf.

<shrug>

But I think one of the three left(4 for everyone else, if you like my logic) is a wolf:

Lagom Lite, Qantaga, or Pr0ner

I say Pr0ner, since he is quiet.

 Pr0ner 
 


That's the rest of the story, pardner.

So you want to vote for me because I was on the Theohall vote and because I'm quiet?

That's some good logic there.

No one listens to me because I am always wrong. So don't worry about it too much.

Lagom Lite wrote:

El Guapo wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:

Holman wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:Actually, reading through the thread

 El Guapo 
 
comes off as non-committal.

Committed (or not) to what?

Often, you get wolves who sneak around the edges, trying to seem like they're participating while not actually adding anything of substance nor committing to a vote.

That's my general MO in these games, really - I play the Iago fretting about one player and then the next. Often eventually there's a string of votes while I'm out and someone gets strung up. Think of me as the anti-theohall in that respect.

I get your reasoning, but if you care to go back and look at past WW games I've been in you'll get what I'm saying.

That's an interesting response. Instead of explaining your actions, you're (falsely) interpreting your own general behavior. Did I hit a nerve there?

Heh, no nerve, just something I've observed about myself in past WW games.

I wasn't in many games (this is my 2nd) but the Remus suspiscion is hillarious. Is it really that bad?

Vorret wrote:I wasn't in many games (this is my 2nd) but the Remus suspiscion is hillarious. Is it really that bad?

If I recall correctly, Remus ended up being a wolf in like 4 games in a row. I was famous for saying dumb things like.."What are the odds that he is a wolf again?"

So I actually started voting for him whenever he appeared in a game.

Lassr wrote:I want to test  Remus West 
 


Unless the seer is a rookie, there is a good chance Remus will not get scanned since he is often an early lynch target. Better safe than sorry. He was on my short list in round 1 and I see no reason to remove him from my list.

So, your reasoning for voting me today is that I haven't done anything in the single day and night we have had to earn your trust?

RMC wrote:

Vorret wrote:I wasn't in many games (this is my 2nd) but the Remus suspiscion is hillarious. Is it really that bad?

If I recall correctly, Remus ended up being a wolf in like 4 games in a row. I was famous for saying dumb things like.."What are the odds that he is a wolf again?"

So I actually started voting for him whenever he appeared in a game.

I thought it was a Mara Jade hang over.

Remus West wrote:

Lassr wrote:I want to test  Remus West 
 


Unless the seer is a rookie, there is a good chance Remus will not get scanned since he is often an early lynch target. Better safe than sorry. He was on my short list in round 1 and I see no reason to remove him from my list.

So, your reasoning for voting me today is that I haven't done anything in the single day and night we have had to earn your trust?

and the way you kept harping on the "villager thinking a trap has been set and letting the village know" scenario yesterday felt wolfy.

You need some time off to reset everyone's memory ++

Remus West wrote:

RMC wrote:

Vorret wrote:I wasn't in many games (this is my 2nd) but the Remus suspiscion is hillarious. Is it really that bad?

If I recall correctly, Remus ended up being a wolf in like 4 games in a row. I was famous for saying dumb things like.."What are the odds that he is a wolf again?"

So I actually started voting for him whenever he appeared in a game.

I thought it was a Mara Jade hang over.

hehehe... Hey that game worked out for me to be on the winning side. I love that mechanic, but it does add a level of who to trust at the end game.

Here.. Just coming off my Superbowl high.


I'll catch up and post more tonight

Just to add quickly bb2112 was a odd choice since he dropped the hammer on Theohall without letting him speak. He would have been hard pressed on this and mostly likely voted off


So did he hint at something?

Seems like a newbie wolf thing to do

right,  Holman 
 

tru1cy wrote:Just to add quickly bb2112 was a odd choice since he dropped the hammer on Theohall without letting him speak. He would have been hard pressed on this and mostly likely voted off


So did he hint at something?

Seems like a newbie wolf thing to do

right,  Holman 
 

Except I wasn't the last vote--I wasn't even second-to-last.

I jumped on that train because I didn't see how we could know anything at all before the first night was done. We needed a lynching, and the pile was on.

Oh--scratch that. You're talking about killing bb, not Theohall.

Votes -
Majority is 7

El Guapo (1)- Lagom Lite,
Holman (2) - Vorret, Truicy,
Proner (1) - RMC,
Remus West (1)- Lassr,



No Votes Cast - Remus West, Qantaga, Mr. Bubbles, Holman, Scoop, El Guapo, Proner

tru1cy wrote:Just to add quickly bb2112 was a odd choice since he dropped the hammer on Theohall without letting him speak. He would have been hard pressed on this and mostly likely voted off


So did he hint at something?

More often than not I wouldn't go with this line of thinking, because if it was the case then the pirates would go back and comb through his messages. If he was on target I think they would leave him alone, but then again, maybe they panicked and did worry about his insight.

Mr Bubbles wrote:

tru1cy wrote:Just to add quickly bb2112 was a odd choice since he dropped the hammer on Theohall without letting him speak. He would have been hard pressed on this and mostly likely voted off


So did he hint at something?

More often than not I wouldn't go with this line of thinking, because if it was the case then the pirates would go back and comb through his messages. If he was on target I think they would leave him alone, but then again, maybe they panicked and did worry about his insight.

But they didn't... his insight was to kill theo and that didn't turn out so well... (for both of them!)
I still have a good feeling about my vote (strangely, Tryc1 is also still voting for him). Maybe not so much for what was said today (since I kinda did misread it) but for what was said on the first said, it feels... out of place. So for now, my vote stais with Holman.

Vorret wrote:
But they didn't... his insight was to kill theo and that didn't turn out so well... (for both of them!)
I still have a good feeling about my vote (strangely, Tryc1 is also still voting for him). Maybe not so much for what was said today (since I kinda did misread it) but for what was said on the first said, it feels... out of place. So for now, my vote stais with Holman.

I can't figure out what you mean here, and I can't figure out why you think I'm a wolf!

In any case, I've decided that I think you and Tru1cy (who is also voting against me) are *not* wolves, since I think wolves would leave noobs alone and go for experienced players first, as they have clearly done so far.

On the suspicion that the wolves have decided to lie low this time, I will add my vote for:

 Pr0ner 
 

Lassr wrote:

Remus West wrote:

Lassr wrote:I want to test  Remus West 
 


Unless the seer is a rookie, there is a good chance Remus will not get scanned since he is often an early lynch target. Better safe than sorry. He was on my short list in round 1 and I see no reason to remove him from my list.

So, your reasoning for voting me today is that I haven't done anything in the single day and night we have had to earn your trust?

and the way you kept harping on the "villager thinking a trap has been set and letting the village know" scenario yesterday felt wolfy.

You still do not see what I was saying at all. Lets try one more time. The idea is that when I looked at what scoop did I did not think "trap". I thought "weird". Your mindset said "trap". To me, wolves look for "traps", I don't look at behaviors as though they might be traps when I'm a villager - thus you looking at Scoop's behavior as though it is a trap makes me think you are worried about stepping in a trap. It had nothing to do with letting people know or not. It had to do with what you are looking for in the original post.