JLA The Revenge of the Crime Syndicate GAMEOVER

[Lassr]

0 Vorret - Hawkwoman
0 stessier - Hawkman
Unagi-Wonder Woman

Remaining:
0 Grundbegriff
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------

Possibly 2 somewhat proven normals above.

those numbers look good for us

[Unagi]

Unagi cross dressing reveal

The patriotic bikini is probably what was creeping me out.

Oh, suuuuure.

[Lassr]

0 Vorret - Hawkwoman
0 stessier - Hawkman
Unagi-Wonder Woman

Remaining:
0 Grundbegriff
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------

Possibly 2 somewhat proven normals above.

plus MM in that group, that pretty much can assure a victory for the good guys wouldn't it?


those numbers look good for us

[Unagi]

Something else I forgot to mention... I asked Chaosraven about this earlier in the game, and it would hold true for my Normal scan. This player was not converted to Haley on the night I scanned him because my scan protects from attack, and the Joker's 'conversion' is an attack that they can then turn into a conversion. So, there was perhaps a conversion (no kill), OR I kept my 'Normal' scan from being converted or killed. Point just being that for now, my Normal is I think the only proven-not-converted we have.

[El Guapo]

Something else I forgot to mention... I asked Chaosraven about this earlier in the game, and it would hold true for my Normal scan. This player was not converted to Haley on the night I scanned him because my scan protects from attack, and the Joker's 'conversion' is an attack that they can then turn into a conversion. So, there was perhaps a conversion (no kill), OR I kept my 'Normal' scan from being converted or killed. Point just being that for now, my Normal is I think the only proven-not-converted we have.

I myself am glad that we do not have to worry about that.

[El Guapo]

We could get lucky and MM could contact a villain when killed.

That's true, although my inclination is not to count on that.

[El Guapo]

0 Vorret - Hawkwoman
0 stessier - Hawkman
Unagi-Wonder Woman

Remaining:
0 Grundbegriff
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------

Possibly 2 somewhat proven normals above.

plus MM in that group, that pretty much can assure a victory for the good guys wouldn't it?


those numbers look good for us

Indeed.

I'm inclined to go with

 Grundbegriff 
 


He's quiet, he's (probably) not a special....at a minimum it would be nice to spur some analysis from him.

[Lassr]

 Grundbegriff 
 


I think this is a good option right now.

[triggercut]

Well.

THAT was eventful.

Not that we needed it, but we have double confirmation MM is in the game. Unagi says he scanned him, Hawkman says he talked to him.

Here's the other thing: Unagi I think has to be considered proven. Hawkman knows the MM's identity. Unagi says he does too. That'd be a real easy test of Wonder Woman...

[triggercut]

0 Vorret - Hawkwoman
0 stessier - Hawkman
Unagi-Wonder Woman

Remaining:
0 Grundbegriff
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------

Possibly 2 somewhat proven normals above.

plus MM in that group, that pretty much can assure a victory for the good guys wouldn't it?


those numbers look good for us

This is very interesting.

Let's dive in. There are three who I think we can call proven, leaving us with a set of 6 non-proven players.

I know that I am not a badguy.

Unagi says that he scanned a normal, so that person is one of the 6. Maybe that's me. Maybe it isn't, I don't know.

The Martian Manhunter is in that group of 6 too. We know he had contact with one other player besides Hawkman.

They may be able to double confirm one another because they both scanned or contacted the same player.

They may have two separate contacts, too. If they have the same, MM + Unagi's normie (presumably MM's night one contact) takes the trusted list to 4, 5 if we add MM to it.

If they made separate contacts, we have 6 kind of trusteds. But....there's a fly in the ointment.

[triggercut]

The fly in the ointment is this: someone was converted last night.

That person retains their powers. So any of our trusted players could be converts. Unagi could be WW converted to Harley. Same for Vorret and stessier, right? Either could be Harley, happy to shoot RMC.

And while both Unagi and stessier claim to know the role of MM, perhaps he was converted.

Let's not call anyone trusted, just yet.

Here then is the dilemma. We can trust that the two Hawks and Unagi and MM were not converted. Unagi can reveal his normie scan. MM can de-cloak, and he can tell us who he scanned on night one (stess says that he was contacted on night 2, and neither Unagi or Vorret claims to have talked to MM). If we buy that MM wasn't converted, his night one scan is also clean--else MM would have been the night two target.

*In this case, The Village wins.*

But hold your tickets. Here's the problem. The badguys didn't convert on night one. They converted on night two.

If that's the actual case, then the badguy team is Lex Luthor (scans) and The Joker (converts).

Did the badguys decide to wait a night on their conversion until they could get a scan? Seems very plausible.

And then they converted on night two, based off that scan is a scenario.

Indeed, here are our scenarios for Night Two:

1. The badguys scanned on night one, found a juicy target (a powered goodguy) and converted.
2. The badguys scanned on night one, didn't find a juicy target, but got scared that Joker might be hanged soon and decided to just convert someone, anyone.
3. The badguys may not have Lex or the Joker and simply tried to kill Unagi's night two target and that target was protected by the lasso.

I then submit: if Unagi, Vorret, or stessier has been converted to Harley Quinn...I just don't see how the village will win.

But there's a ray of light!

[triggercut]

Here's the thing folks: if any one of our outed superheroes is actually Harley Quinn, the badguys know the identity of Martian Manhunter, right?

Unagi scanned him on night one. On night two, stessier claims contact, and probably has told Vorret. All three of them know the MM's identity. If any of those three were converted, the badguys now know who the MM is, right?

Has to be.

If any of those three were converted, we're hosed anyway. Unagi can give us his normie he scanned on night two, but that could just as likely be a badguy.

I mean, what do we do here? It comes down to some cold math.

MM and at least one normie, perhaps two that can be named are in the group of 6. That leaves us with 4 remaining players housing 3 badguys perhaps...but only two misses. What happens if we miss the first time? Do we scrap it and declare no one trusted?

And if Unagi is converted, it doesn't matter, right? he can give us a fellow villain as a normie, and then they stand a good chance of killing MM and a normie that night and ending the game outright there.

It kind of all comes down to Unagi, right? He's either lying, and the badguys have won. Or he's telling the truth, and MM and Unagi's normie and even perhaps MM's other contact can be named, and the goodguys win.

So you "trusteds"...how do you want to play it?

[bb2112]

0 Vorret - Hawkwoman
0 stessier - Hawkman
Unagi-Wonder Woman

Remaining:
0 Grundbegriff
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------

Possibly 2 somewhat proven normals above.

Everyone should come out. That would be 5 knowns to 4 unknown.

Day/Night	Known	Unknown	Notes
Today	5	3	Lynch an Unkown
Night	4	2	Assuming they kill MM and an innocent

At this point WW will scan another of the unknowns. As long as WW and MM don't scan the same person, then that would drop the unknown pool to 1.

However, it is very likely that MM will not be the target because he could be talking to a villain and that would kill off a team bad member. A much more likely scenario would be the villains kill WW to prevent anymore scans. WW is out now, so she is the main target. This is a very small pool for the villains to hide. This is more likely.

Day/Night	Known	Unknown	Notes
Today	5	3	Lynch an Unknown
Night	4	3	WW meets her maker
Following Day	4	2	Lynch an Unknown
Following Night	3	1	Kill MM and 1 Unknown

Assuming all the knowns are good, we win. If they aren't, then we are pretty much screwed anyway.

[bb2112]

And the second scenario where MM gets killed tomorrow night also assumes worst case scenario where he is talking to a good guy and not a villain.

[Vorret]

Unagi scanned him on night one. On night two, stessier claims contact, and probably has told Vorret. All three of them know the MM's identity. If any of those three were converted, the badguys now know who the MM is, right?

We can't talk in PM so nope, I have no idea who MM is!

[stessier]

Here's the thing folks: if any one of our outed superheroes is actually Harley Quinn, the badguys know the identity of Martian Manhunter, right?

Unagi scanned him on night one. On night two, stessier claims contact, and probably has told Vorret.

Nope, Vorret and I can't PM. It's all been done in thread. We're we subtle?!?

[stessier]

Yeah...what Vorret said.

[stessier]

I have a bunch of meetings this morning. I'll try to re-read people at lunch because trig and bb2112 are making my head spin on a quick read.

[Unagi]

First let me thank you for writing that all up triggercut - much of that has been what I've been mulling over and I didn't have the energy to lay it all out (nor a lot of time).
The fact that I was the Seer and you guys would need to put trust in me, hasn't escaped me - let me tell you.

I also worried that if they are 4 in number, and a double kill happened - the numbers wouldn't be there. And then the whole 'this is really good, except if there is a conversion' thorn kept bothering me.
You also need to add to your list of 'flies in the ointment' examples - for if MM was converted last night.
And while I pretty much share you thoughts on the First Night Contact, he could also have since been converted.

So, how do I want to play it? I "want" to play it where there was no conversion against the people involved in the 'proven' chain, and I want to come out and give my MM name and my Normal name. That's what I 'want', but I've been concerned about the double kill, but the chances of that are dependent on how many Villains remain, more villains = less chance though.

When stessier came out, I thought he was about to name MM and I hadn't really worked anything out in my head at all, I just was focused on how I couldn't protect the 1 "double kill" player we had.



(on Preview here I just read Bb2112's numbers)
I'd like to hear others' opinions (even the non-HM/HW), but I'm kinda leaning toward exposing all my names and getting myself killed.

[Vorret]

First let me thank you for writing that all up triggercut - much of that has been what I've been mulling over and I didn't have the energy to lay it all out (nor a lot of time).
The fact that I was the Seer and you guys would need to put trust in me, hasn't escaped me - let me tell you.

I also worried that if they are 4 in number, and a double kill happened - the numbers wouldn't be there. And then the whole 'this is really good, except if there is a conversion' thorn kept bothering me.
You also need to add to your list of 'flies in the ointment' examples - for if MM was converted last night.
And while I pretty much share you thoughts on the First Night Contact, he could also have since been converted.

So, how do I want to play it? I "want" to play it where there was no conversion against the people involved in the 'proven' chain, and I want to come out and give my MM name and my Normal name. That's what I 'want', but I've been concerned about the double kill, but the chances of that are dependent on how many Villains remain, more villains = less chance though.

When stessier came out, I thought he was about to name MM and I hadn't really worked anything out in my head at all, I just was focused on how I couldn't protect the 1 "double kill" player we had.



(on Preview here I just read Bb2112's numbers)
I'd like to hear others' opinions (even the non-HM/HW), but I'm kinda leaning toward exposing all my names and getting myself killed.

You're kinda screwed no matter what since we have no protector, I don't see a reason not to go all in with the names and reduce the pool of potential targets especially since we need to lynch someone.

You're obviously not going to put a vote on either MM or the normal player you scanned so even if you don't say anything the wolves will know where to look on the next night but we won't and run the risk of voting for two players who could technically be proven.

[Lassr]

I lean toward everyone coming out and let the chips fall where they may. If there was a conversion of someone we think is "proven" then we probably are just as screwed if we all don't come out. I mean if everyone stays hidden and starts voting and we start hitting the specials, or people will start claiming stuff if they are a bad guy, then reveals are going to happen anyhow.

SO a mass reveal or a slow trickle of reveals are our options. Mass reveal leaves small pool to work with if no conversion of a "trusted" but staying hidden one more day may allow more info to be gathered but could lead to the death of someone that was "trusted" and other info could be lost with him.

[Unagi]

You're kinda screwed no matter what since we have no protector, I don't see a reason not to go all in with the names and reduce the pool of potential targets especially since we need to lynch someone.You're obviously not going to put a vote on either MM or the normal player you scanned so even if you don't say anything the wolves will know where to look on the next night but we won't and run the risk of voting for two players who could technically be proven.

I don't really need more convincing, I mostly want a record of people talking about it a little, and I kinda want to read a coded-"nod" from MM that he wants it too.

[Unagi]

Not that I wasn't happy to hear your opinion too Vorret.

[bb2112]

0 Vorret - Hawkwoman
0 stessier - Hawkman
Unagi-Wonder Woman

Remaining:
0 Grundbegriff
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------

Possibly 2 somewhat proven normals above.

Just thinking out loud.

1. Assuming there are 3 villains and 3 unknowns in the remaining 6, then that is a very small pool for the villains to fish for MM. But in order for the bad guys to win, they need to kill WW first and then the knowns.

2. Also, who did MM contact night 1? If MM contacted a bad guy, he could have been the target of the night 2 conversion. In which case he would not be a target of a night kill and a double kill would never happen.

3. Did MM tell Stess who his night 1 contact was?

I'm still thinking everyone should come out, even if it means my head is on the chopping block as one of the unknowns. I'm a simple villager, but at this point with 4 good guy claims, that means nothing to the rest of the you.

[stessier]

3. Did MM tell Stess who his night 1 contact was?

Yes he did, but not his role.

[triggercut]

I think we might be able to win this, or at least say "Well played Unagi" for him being a badguy, because he thought this out in layers.

The first step would be having Unagi tell us who the Martian Manhunter is, and seeing if that agrees with stessier's contact. I would really like to see that, and wholly endorse it.

Then MM and Unagi can compare notes, and we go from there.

[Vorret]

I think we might be able to win this, or at least say "Well played Unagi" for him being a badguy, because he thought this out in layers.

The first step would be having Unagi tell us who the Martian Manhunter is, and seeing if that agrees with stessier's contact. I would really like to see that, and wholly endorse it.

Then MM and Unagi can compare notes, and we go from there.

Sounds good!

And then we kill RMC!

Oh wait...

[Lassr]

I think the bad guys are a bit quiet because they see the hopelessness in their evil campaign.

[stessier]

I think we might be able to win this, or at least say "Well played Unagi" for him being a badguy, because he thought this out in layers.

The first step would be having Unagi tell us who the Martian Manhunter is, and seeing if that agrees with stessier's contact. I would really like to see that, and wholly endorse it.

Then MM and Unagi can compare notes, and we go from there.

Would it be better if Unagi gives both of his contacts without noting who is who? MM, me, and FNC will know who is who. Then decisions can be made. Naming them straight out eliminates future avenues for stealth.

[Moliere]

I think the bad guys are a bit quiet because they see the hopelessness in their evil campaign.

That seems like a dangerous assumption. Some people are quiet because that's their personality or some meta situation. Or it could be part of a larger ruse.

[Unagi]

I'm down with stessier's compromise

El Guapo and triggercut were my 2 scans.

[triggercut]

I'm down with stessier's compromise

El Guapo and triggercut were my 2 scans.

That's interesting.

[El Guapo]

I think the bad guys are a bit quiet because they see the hopelessness in their evil campaign.

That seems like a dangerous assumption. Some people are quiet because that's their personality or some meta situation. Or it could be part of a larger ruse.

Why would we assume that the bad guys are all quiet? I am inclined to think that at least one of you talkative types is among the evildoers.

[triggercut]

stessier, are either of Unagi's scans the same person that MM said he talked to on night one?

[bb2112]

Knowns:
Vorret - Hawkwoman
stessier - Hawkman
Unagi - Wonder Woman
Triggercut - MM or Villager
El Guapo - MM or Villager

Unknowns:
Grundbegriff
moliere ---------
lassr
bb2112 ----------

Assuming 3 evils, not much room to hide.

I suggest we lynch whomever MM talked to on night 1 assuming he is not on one of the "Knowns". If that person is evil, then we have to consider a potentially evil MM scenario.

[stessier]

stessier, are either of Unagi's scans the same person that MM said he talked to on night one?

Nope. And I'm fine with Unagi's list inasmuch as MM is on it. I think I can safely name the First Night Contact (or he can come forward) and verify that MM is on Unagi's list.

Interestingly, and something I had not considered, the other person in Unagi's list now knows who MM is. The problem with trying to keep a secret...

[triggercut]

The bad guys know who MM is.

The most of the good guys probably do, too.

I'm the Martian Manhunter. I contacted Lassr on night one. He claimed not to be evil.

I contacted stess on night 2.

Sometime after that night 2 contact, it's likely that either someone was converted, or an attack on El Guapo was thwarted.

I can tell you that I was not converted. Which you can't totally believe, obviously.

But me not being converted probably means that Lassr was telling the truth, and he's not evil. If he was, I'd have been converted night one, right?

There's a scenario where I contacted badguy Lassr on night one, and they scanned Unagi on night two and decided to convert him because he's a higher value target too.

[stessier]

Oh thank you ... I kept double checking every post to make sure it said MM rather than trig.

[El Guapo]

This isn't going to be the most dramatic reveal, but I can confirm that I am not Martian Manhunter, and am just a regular villager. Which is consistent with what Unagi, Triggercut, stessier, and Vorret have said, although obviously that doesn't really prove anything.

[Vorret]

Alright so let's give Lassr a pass for now, it leaves a somewhat small pool of people where the evil can hide