Octopus Overlords

Jaymann wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:56 pm So I downloaded the Pandora app to my phone and tested it on bluetooth - worked perfectly. But now the Tesla streaming is working again. WTF Musk?

I think I figured it out. When the car is sitting in the garage it has connectivity through wi-fi. That's enough to feed the data streaming buffer. Then when I drive somewhere and park for a while it will no longer connect.

Also Musk's reign of terror has apparently expanded to Tesla and SpaceX, as Musk is now firing employees of those companies for questioning his latest tweeting habits.

But hey $7500 discount if you take delivery of a new Tesla by end of year!

I checked inventory. I can drive 3 hours and get a new AWD Model 3... gave it a thought for a bit. I decided I don't need a new car.

And 10k Supercharger miles, worth a ~$1k additional incentive. Also don't need one so I'm out.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm And 10k Supercharger miles, worth a ~$1k additional incentive.

As someone that has never plugged into a supercharger I forgot that one. It doesn't do anything for me.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:55 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm And 10k Supercharger miles, worth a ~$1k additional incentive.

As someone that has never plugged into a supercharger I forgot that one. It doesn't do anything for me.

$2200 in the past 15 months for me.

Good God, this thread.



Also:

Full self-driving has been a full self-driving debacle. That is squarely on Musk and his vision only obsession. They had a significant lead at one point and they appear to have to some level squandered it.

Also, the demand collapse seems to be real and I'm seeing some follow on effects. For instance, one thing I've noticed locally is that Supercharger rates have plummeted off-hours. It's actually cheaper than my home electric at several local superchargers except for "peak" hours of 8 AM - 4 PM. I'm seeing for instance 17 cents / KWh.

pr0ner wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:41 pm Good God, this thread.



Also:

Musk had somehow turned into an idiot. The supercharger network is the only advantage Tesla has left after the other advantage - Musk himself - is seemingly bent on spectacular self sabotage.

They've gone from the daily darlings to most criticized in the last month. The new year is business opening with nothing but talk about how TESLA "only" grew 40% YOY. Oddly enough the only mention of Musk has been that he's bringing in Chinese head to the US, Tom Zhu, which is actually about Zhu no Musk.

TSLA shed 69.20% of it's value last year. Feels like an apt number for a company run by Musk.

A year ago I put a value of $50B on TSLA. That wss $850B ago. Only $300B more to go...

Not that I had the nerve to short it then. Or now. Irrationality can last a lot longer than my liquidity.

In the playbook of a former president, Musk wants to pick a judge and jury and the right to a glacially paced trial.

https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-te ... 6244b78372

WASHINGTON (AP) — Elon Musk has urged a federal judge to shift a trial in a shareholder lawsuit out of San Francisco because he says negative local media coverage has biased potential jurors against him.

Instead, in a filing submitted late Friday — less than two weeks before the trial was set to begin on Jan. 17 — Musk’s lawyers argue it should be moved to the federal court in the western district of Texas. That district includes the state capital of Austin, which is where Musk relocated his electric car company, Tesla, in late 2021.

The shareholder lawsuit stems from Musk’s tweets in August 2018 when he said he had sufficient financing to take Tesla private at $420 a share — an announcement that caused heavy volatility in Tesla’s share price.

In a victory for the shareholders last spring, Judge Edward Chen ruled that Musk’s tweets were false and reckless.

If moving the trial isn’t possible, Musk’s lawyers want it postponed until negative publicity regarding the billionaire’s purchase of Twitter has died down.

2022 was a bit of a crazy road-trip year for us. Some final stats now that 2023 has rolled in:



Ignore the cost, as that's just a simple home charging cost/kWh * # of kWh consumed. Supercharging was more, so I'd peg our total cost at a bit over twice that estimate. Those #s are a blended average from our 3 and X.

We hit half of the continental 48 this year:


Our main road-trip car (a 2019 X) now has 51,500 miles on it, and is currently at 58% AC (slow, L1/L2) charges and 42% DCFC. Estimated range on a full charge is at 311 miles vs a starting range of 325 miles, for ~4.4% loss. Pretty good IMO given the amount of DCFC we put it through (and often several days in a row of 'hard' use eg < 7% to > 90%, multiple large DCFC sessions/day). On this latest trip, 794 kWh added via Supercharging over 8.25 hours, for an average speed of 96 kW. Highest I saw us hit was ~180 kW. (Newer cars will do 250 kW under the right conditions.)

No Supercharging waits or issues this trip.

Interestingly (to me, at least), it hit 311 for the first time in Feb, 2020 at ~12,000 miles and has lost effectively nothing since.

A cool-looking shot from our return trip into Colorado this past weekend:

You did more miles in road trips in 2022 than I put on my car since picking it up in August 2018. I may just be able to drive this car for the rest of my life.

coopasonic wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:15 pm You did more miles in road trips in 2022 than I put on my car since picking it up in August 2018. I may just be able to drive this car for the rest of my life.

FWIW, that 31k is all miles for both cars last year. Road trips were prob a bit under half of that. But yes, yours is going to last quite awhile.

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:20 pm

coopasonic wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:15 pm You did more miles in road trips in 2022 than I put on my car since picking it up in August 2018. I may just be able to drive this car for the rest of my life.

FWIW, that 31k is all miles for both cars last year. Road trips were prob a bit under half of that. But yes, yours is going to last quite awhile.

Might still be close, I'm not quite at 20k.

Massive price drops on the 3/Y tonight. The Y LR now undercuts the Mustang Mach-e by $13k, with a 40-mi longer range, better charging network, and quicker drive.

Interesting times ahead. I expected reasonably large price reductions given the price creep over the past 2 years, IRA requirements, and the fact that Berlin and Austin are now at production rates where they're less of a drag on margins. But these are really aggressive.

The mythical $35k Model 3 is back, after the IRA credit and adjusted for inflation from 2018 ($36,500 now), and with considerably more range than the old version.

Dammit man, I just decided my 2018 was good for a few more years (until the battery warranty is a concern). When they had the end of year fire sale, I found a car 3 hours away and gave serious thought to trading up. I am not good at keeping the same car for an extended period.

I still think my next will likely be Hyundai/Kia though (having never been in one).

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:07 am I still think my next will likely be Hyundai/Kia though (having never been in one).

Me too. Though I have no idea how long I will hold on to my current car, so that calculus can change dramatically before purchase.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:50 am

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:07 am I still think my next will likely be Hyundai/Kia though (having never been in one).

Me too. Though I have no idea how long I will hold on to my current car, so that calculus can change dramatically before purchase.

The Ioniq 5 would be my choice in that category. But I would think current Bolt prices would make them a more attractive option for you.

stessier wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:05 am

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:50 am

coopasonic wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:07 am I still think my next will likely be Hyundai/Kia though (having never been in one).

Me too. Though I have no idea how long I will hold on to my current car, so that calculus can change dramatically before purchase.

The Ioniq 5 would be my choice in that category. But I would think current Bolt prices would make them a more attractive option for you.

The Ioniq PHEV was the car for me and I'd probably have one right now if there was a new one within 100 miles of me of me last year. I'm sad they discontinued it.

Crazy that the AWD/LR Ioniq's now only $750 cheaper than the AWD/LR Y. And that's before the tax credit (which the IRS lists Hyundai in a limbo state of intending to qualify but not qualifying yet).

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:27 am Crazy that the AWD/LR Ioniq's now only $750 cheaper than the AWD/LR Y. And that's before the tax credit (which the IRS lists Hyundai in a limbo state of intending to qualify but not qualifying yet).

I don't know how it's ever going to be able to qualify. It's not assembled here nor is the battery sourced through here. Maybe a future version - I know 3 battery factories are opening in South Carolina in the next 2-3 years (which is kinda crazy given how much people dislike the cars here).

stessier wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:32 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:27 am Crazy that the AWD/LR Ioniq's now only $750 cheaper than the AWD/LR Y. And that's before the tax credit (which the IRS lists Hyundai in a limbo state of intending to qualify but not qualifying yet).

I don't know how it's ever going to be able to qualify. It's not assembled here nor is the battery sourced through here. Maybe a future version - I know 3 battery factories are opening in South Carolina in the next 2-3 years (which is kinda crazy given how much people dislike the cars here).

That was my understanding, but I hadn't paid close attention lately so wasn't sure if they were going to pull a rabbit out of a hat. That said, if the Y is really then effectively ~$6,500 cheaper for most folks, it'd be a difficult sell to go with the Ioniq. (For me, at least, and I know I'm not representative of all!) I would not like to be an exec at Ford/Hyundai/Volvo/etc this morning.

The whole subsidy thing is interesting because Hyundai and Kia were at one point seemed to be really pushing the Korean government to file a WTO complaint over the protectionism baked into the subsidies. That seems to have cooled off. I have to imagine that was kicked up to the higher echelons for some deal making. Still the price parity we'll see here coupled with the big price chop will uncover how much of the "demand destruction" Twitter kerfuffle story is real or not in the coming months perhaps.

malchior wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:47 amuncover how much of the "demand destruction" Twitter kerfuffle story is real or not in the coming months perhaps.

Yeah, we'll see. All I have to offer is that as probably (lol) the biggest Tesla supporter here, I thought the prior pricing had 'gone plaid,' so to speak. To re-buy our X would have been +$30k vs 2019 pricing yesterday, and the 3/Y were proportionally just as bad. Demand issue or no, there was without a doubt a major price issue.

What I'm most interested to see is how margins move with these changes. No doubt they'll drop, but I don't think they'll go as low as some doom-and-gloomers are saying. Just for a few simple examples as to why: Berlin/Austin were big margin drags late last year, and will be significantly less so this year; no doubt more people will opt into EAP/FSD purchases due to the lower vehicle costs, and that's almost all margin; Tesla guided for cost decreases outside of the factory ramps from supply chain improvements.

I'd eat a 5% margin hit to get Musk to STFU for 12 months or so, though. Can I make that deal?

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:55 am

malchior wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:47 amuncover how much of the "demand destruction" Twitter kerfuffle story is real or not in the coming months perhaps.

Yeah, we'll see. All I have to offer is that as probably (lol) the biggest Tesla supporter here, I thought the prior pricing had 'gone plaid,' so to speak. To re-buy our X would have been +$30k vs 2019 pricing yesterday, and the 3/Y were proportionally just as bad. Demand issue or no, there was without a doubt a major price issue.

And that price issue was IMO a natural consequence of market conditions. Maybe another company would have done a bit better at forecasting and messaging. On the latter everyone is better than Tesla where the lack of public relations is irrational but the price drop at least makes sense from a pure economics POV. I suspect the market won't freak out. Well not as of this morning where it is taking another 4% dump. Still, the microeconomics all line up with what you'd expect. They essentially got their "late" early-adopters to partially pay for their mainstream factories. Not a bad outcome.

What I'm most interested to see is how margins move with these changes. No doubt they'll drop, but I don't think they'll go as low as some doom-and-gloomers are saying. Just for a few simple examples as to why: Berlin/Austin were big margin drags late last year, and will be significantly less so this year; no doubt more people will opt into EAP/FSD purchases due to the lower vehicle costs, and that's almost all margin; Tesla guided for cost decreases outside of the factory ramps from supply chain improvements.

Indeed. Though I think FSD is going to be a tougher sell for a mainstream audience with all the negative press and the specter of investigation. They are maybe one government report away from a PR and possibly legal disaster there. We just saw the changes to automatic windows thing play out. It is hard to work through the consequences if the government tells them to throttle the $15K software package on their car.

I'd eat a 5% margin hit to get Musk to STFU for 12 months or so, though. Can I make that deal?

FWIW I think that's happening. He has been much quieter. Maybe someone took his phone away like in the Glass Onion or he finally got enough dose of reality that he was undergoing one of the most visible meltdowns in recent history.

malchior wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:33 amI think FSD is going to be a tougher sell for a mainstream audience with all the negative press and the specter of investigation.

I mean, just to use myself as an example again, I have FSD on zero of my current cars, and have no interest in purchasing it for $15k even if it eventually does everything perfectly. I get that Tesla thinks this is eventually going to unlock crazy value (and for some subset of folks, it will) but it's just a non-starter for me at that price. The subscription option does help a lot, though, as I can just pop into FSD for a month if we have a big trip coming up. Haven't actually done that yet, though, as the bifurcation of software builds to get into the beta also isn't something I've been interested in. That part's finally clearing up now, at least.

I'd eat a 5% margin hit to get Musk to STFU for 12 months or so, though. Can I make that deal?

FWIW I think that's happening. He has been much quieter. Maybe someone took his phone away like in the Glass Onion or he finally got enough dose of reality that he was undergoing one of the most visible meltdowns in recent history.

It's happening today, but it's happened for a few weeks to a couple months before, too. I'd like 12 months of sanity, kthxbye.

But sanity is boring!

And yet, The Boring Company is insane.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:54 am Massive price drops on the 3/Y tonight…
The mythical $35k Model 3 is back, after the IRA credit and adjusted for inflation from 2018 ($36,500 now), and with considerably more range than the old version.

A M3SR+ today (with tax credits) costs $1500 less than the new MINI hardtop I bought in 2006 (in 2006 dollars).

!!!

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:40 amThat part's finally clearing up now, at least.

Is it? We'll see.

This actually reminds me that I had a good discussion at a X-Mas gathering and one person was harping on the usual (build quality vs. cost) which I shrug at to some extent but they also were talking about their service experience as a BMW owner in a car at a similar price point (edit: the old price!). It's like a fantastical voyage to new world's compared to Tesla. That gets easier to deal with at this price point too but starts to potentially become a problem as they get more mainstream adoption.

For example, many folks aren't going to tolerate an end-to-end month long process to fix wiring that usually takes a day or two for other manufacturers. (They also scratched my paint which I couldn't see when they gave me my car back in the middle of the night). Or the locally sourced wisdom I hadn't heard to avoid that service center entirely and go slightly further to other service centers. I learned that from the Uber driver giving me the ride to pick up my car who got a huge chunk of his business ferrying people to/from Tesla. "Most people avoid Princeton and go to the Cherry Hill or Springfield service center. They all go there once. You'll see." He was right.

Curious what the used Tesla market is like, it's going to get whacked if it exists. Presumably no one is going to do the buyout on their leased Tesla either which means more off-lease in stock.

I don't know, I had a wiper fluid and wiper alignment issue on our Christmas trip, and they came to my house 2 days after I reported it and resolved it for free, out of warranty, without more than 45 sec of effort on my part. It remains a very variable situation nationwide, but the good side of Tesla service remains as good as anyone.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:02 pm Curious what the used Tesla market is like, it's going to get whacked if it exists. Presumably no one is going to do the buyout on their leased Tesla either which means more off-lease in stock.

That's true. It's especially crazy to juxtaposition where we were last eyar. I've been tracking prices monthly since I bought mine. Late last year it was way out. When I picked mine up mid-November I could have flipped it for ~$15K more than I bought it since I locked in my price in July! There was a peak beyond the sticker price that priced in forecast cost increases at the end of the queue at the time. It was really nuts on top of a overvalued trade on my previous car. I probably could have netted $30K in the transaction. Bonkers.

The price drop actually settled something in my mind. I was considering a flip into another EV and that idea is dead as a doornail now.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:17 pm I don't know, I had a wiper fluid and wiper alignment issue on our Christmas trip, and they came to my house 2 days after I reported it and resolved it for free, out of warranty, without more than 45 sec of effort on my part. It remains a very variable situation nationwide, but the good side of Tesla service remains as good as anyone.

This is where the fanboy kicks in, amirite?!

Yeah variable is a great way to put it. I had a good experience with the Springfield location since. To be fair to Tesla, they have a very early Apple store vibe where the brand enthusiasm is supposed to carry a lot of the water and I suspect they'll have to change and will in line with the transformation that Apple went through. The early genius bar was...pretty variable too.

From 2019:

Lolololol