Ukraine

[Dogstar]

Reports are rolling in that the Russians may have finally decided that they can not progress and have begun to indiscriminately shell Kyiv. Apparently missiles and other long ranges fires have been steadily hitting the city for the last 45 minutes.

Is there anything that we can do to counter this short of engaging Russia militarily? Sanctions (public and private) can be stepped up (apparently LG announced that they won't sell into Russia anymore). We can provide more military equipment. But if Russia remains determined to keep this up...what can we do? Anything that we can provide Ukraine that would help them better target artillery / missile launchers?

Maybe some version of the Iron Dome that Israel has? I imagine that requires a fair bit of training though. Short of drone strikes guided by US intelligence, I'm hard-pressed to think about what the deterrent/counterpoint would be.

[El Guapo]

Reports are rolling in that the Russians may have finally decided that they can not progress and have begun to indiscriminately shell Kyiv. Apparently missiles and other long ranges fires have been steadily hitting the city for the last 45 minutes.

Is there anything that we can do to counter this short of engaging Russia militarily? Sanctions (public and private) can be stepped up (apparently LG announced that they won't sell into Russia anymore). We can provide more military equipment. But if Russia remains determined to keep this up...what can we do? Anything that we can provide Ukraine that would help them better target artillery / missile launchers?

Maybe some version of the Iron Dome that Israel has? I imagine that requires a fair bit of training though. Short of drone strikes guided by US intelligence, I'm hard-pressed to think about what the deterrent/counterpoint would be.

FWIW Israel has declined to provide Iron Dome systems or related support to Ukraine. Which I get from their perspective, insofar as I imagine if they did their various enemies would make it a high priority to get any information on them that they could to better defeat them in the future.

The U.S. hasn't provided any Patriot systems to Ukraine, right? I think out of some mix of the same reasons as Iron Dome, some fear of going too far antagonizing Russia, and not enough time to train Ukrainians and get the systems up to speed?

[LawBeefaroni]

Reports are rolling in that the Russians may have finally decided that they can not progress and have begun to indiscriminately shell Kyiv. Apparently missiles and other long ranges fires have been steadily hitting the city for the last 45 minutes.

Is there anything that we can do to counter this short of engaging Russia militarily? Sanctions (public and private) can be stepped up (apparently LG announced that they won't sell into Russia anymore). We can provide more military equipment. But if Russia remains determined to keep this up...what can we do? Anything that we can provide Ukraine that would help them better target artillery / missile launchers?

Maybe some version of the Iron Dome that Israel has? I imagine that requires a fair bit of training though. Short of drone strikes guided by US intelligence, I'm hard-pressed to think about what the deterrent/counterpoint would be.

FWIW Israel has declined to provide Iron Dome systems or related support to Ukraine. Which I get from their perspective, insofar as I imagine if they did their various enemies would make it a high priority to get any information on them that they could to better defeat them in the future.

The U.S. hasn't provided any Patriot systems to Ukraine, right? I think out of some mix of the same reasons as Iron Dome, some fear of going too far antagonizing Russia, and not enough time to train Ukrainians and get the systems up to speed?

The 9M723K1 is hypersonic. Iron Dome and Patriot aren't designed to stop hypersonic ordinance and would probably be only marginally effective against Russian hypersonic cruise missiles.

They'd help against much slower missile and rocket attacks and some artillery but the cost would be crazy high.

[Kurth]

Reports are rolling in that the Russians may have finally decided that they can not progress and have begun to indiscriminately shell Kyiv. Apparently missiles and other long ranges fires have been steadily hitting the city for the last 45 minutes.

Is there anything that we can do to counter this short of engaging Russia militarily? Sanctions (public and private) can be stepped up (apparently LG announced that they won't sell into Russia anymore). We can provide more military equipment. But if Russia remains determined to keep this up...what can we do? Anything that we can provide Ukraine that would help them better target artillery / missile launchers?

Maybe some version of the Iron Dome that Israel has? I imagine that requires a fair bit of training though. Short of drone strikes guided by US intelligence, I'm hard-pressed to think about what the deterrent/counterpoint would be.

FWIW Israel has declined to provide Iron Dome systems or related support to Ukraine. Which I get from their perspective, insofar as I imagine if they did their various enemies would make it a high priority to get any information on them that they could to better defeat them in the future.

The U.S. hasn't provided any Patriot systems to Ukraine, right? I think out of some mix of the same reasons as Iron Dome, some fear of going too far antagonizing Russia, and not enough time to train Ukrainians and get the systems up to speed?

The 9M723K1 is hypersonic. Iron Dome and Patriot aren't designed to stop hypersonic ordinance and would probably be only marginally effective against Russian hypersonic cruise missiles.

They'd help against much slower missile and rocket attacks and some artillery but the cost would be crazy high.

Would love to know what "going too far to antagonize Russia" really means at this point. We are spineless.

[Alefroth]

You're pretty cavalier with millions of lives.

[Defiant]

The 9M723K1 is hypersonic. Iron Dome and Patriot aren't designed to stop hypersonic ordinance and would probably be only marginally effective against Russian hypersonic cruise missiles.

They'd help against much slower missile and rocket attacks and some artillery but the cost would be crazy high.

Also, IIUC, Ukrainians would need to be trained to be able to use the systems.

Meanwhile...

Slovakia has preliminarily agreed to provide Ukraine with a key Soviet-era air defense system to help defend against Russian airstrikes, according to three sources familiar with the matter, but the US and NATO are still grappling with how to backfill that country's own defensive capabilities, and the transfer is not yet assured.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/europe/s ... index.html

[malchior]

Is there anything that we can do to counter this short of engaging Russia militarily? Sanctions (public and private) can be stepped up (apparently LG announced that they won't sell into Russia anymore). We can provide more military equipment. But if Russia remains determined to keep this up...what can we do? Anything that we can provide Ukraine that would help them better target artillery / missile launchers?

We unfortunately can't do much more but still we're doing a lot. Engagement with the Russian military is not happening. Still our actions clearly have had major impacts. And it's not hard to argue that it's ugly as hell and the Ukrainians are doing a great job communicating it which creates a constant clamor to do more. As a reference why there is a line, I'd point to the piece that Tom Nichols wrote in the Atlantic arguing that Putin built himself a trap and only NATO can help him escape it. I think he's dead on.

Link to the story: Only NATO Can Save Putin.

I have thoughts on the big picture side but I think I'll post those in a different thread because I think this crisis has exposed some pleasant and unpleasant truths about our future that have become clearer since the crisis began.

FWIW Israel has declined to provide Iron Dome systems or related support to Ukraine. Which I get from their perspective, insofar as I imagine if they did their various enemies would make it a high priority to get any information on them that they could to better defeat them in the future.

They've always been incredibly cagey about their technology. I've also read that it is not designed to protect against the same type of ballistic threats (speeds/altitudes). Ahother reason is risk of capture and/or destruction. Destruction is a risk on several fronts not the least being a propaganda issue. Russia also sponsors a regime in their neighborhood. So why send a potentially ineffective weapon system to a conflict zone in a way that impacts their national security? It's a no brainer. They almost
certainly didn't even consider it.

The U.S. hasn't provided any Patriot systems to Ukraine, right? I think out of some mix of the same reasons as Iron Dome, some fear of going too far antagonizing Russia, and not enough time to train Ukrainians and get the systems up to speed?

The public concern is about the lack of training. I think the real top reasons line up with the capture/risk of destruction risks that Israel faces.

The training one makes sense as a good blocking excuse. The problem with it is this looks like it'll be a long war. I always shake my head at such obvious stalls. In 6 months when this war is still grinding along, the idea we couldn't have begun training them will be met with different excuses. The usual bullshit in other words but still it is the convenient excuse since the risks are real and outweigh providing the systems.

There is also the cynical read in here because we aren't pure as driven snow. Transferring Ukraine Russian weapons from our partners eliminates the risks. The upside is that those transfer partners now become clients of the Defense Industrial Base (DIB) so win/win on both a balance of trade angle and further integration into NATO.

As an aside, that was what I first thought when before we the scuttled Polish F-16/Mig-29 deal. I thought the real upside was another example of this NATO/US DIB win/win. The downfall was one of political wills failing. The accounts I saw indicated that the Polish wanted to use Rammstein as a transfer point to somehow take the heat off a direct transfer out of Poland. The planes would be flown them to the base and then picked up from the US base by Ukrainian pilots. That was the deal breaker. Still, we gave our partner cover there like a good bro and said it was about not wanting to deliver offensive weapons. It is transparently bullshit. It sort of pointlessly glosses over that we are giving the Ukrainians weapons that are *way more responsible* for direct Russian casualties *every day*.

[Unagi]

I have thoughts on the big picture side but I think I'll post those in a different thread because I think this crisis has exposed some pleasant and unpleasant truths about our future that have become clearer since the crisis began.

I would absolutely love to read a thread that's titled: "Pleasant Truths about our Future"

[Carpet_pissr]

I have thoughts on the big picture side but I think I'll post those in a different thread because I think this crisis has exposed some pleasant and unpleasant truths about our future that have become clearer since the crisis began.

I would absolutely love to read a thread that's titled: "Pleasant Truths about our Future"

Considering it's Malchior writing it, and the ominous tone he used to hint about the topic, I bet you will need a different emoji than the popcorn one after you read it.

Pick up to three of the following:

[malchior]

I have thoughts on the big picture side but I think I'll post those in a different thread because I think this crisis has exposed some pleasant and unpleasant truths about our future that have become clearer since the crisis began.

I would absolutely love to read a thread that's titled: "Pleasant Truths about our Future"

Considering it's Malchior writing it, and the ominous tone he used to hint about the topic, I bet you will need a different emoji than the popcorn one after you read it.

Pick up to three of the following:

Yeah it's far more unpleasant than pleasant. I'll sum it up since it'd go in the 'Our Political System...' thread.

First the pleasant truth. When we have a Democratic mainline President we can still use our expansive intelligence capabilities competently to organize a unified international policy front/response.

Unpleasant truth boiled down - Trump is still in the wings. More many countries even on the periphery responded to this crisis with rapid policy change on defense and energy fronts. The United States? Nada. We haven't even had a public debate about these issues much less take any action that signals we are preparing for the future as it is actually happening. We're paralyzed. It's a sign that the United States is in major decline. We've still got people using this to clamor for the goddamn wall for Pete's sake. The media used a recent press conference acting like the 8-year old's chasing Jon Stewart's figurative ball asking the same question about no fly zone's over and over. Our institutional rot is there for everyone to see. Except us. We don't see it.

[LawBeefaroni]

The 9M723K1 is hypersonic. Iron Dome and Patriot aren't designed to stop hypersonic ordinance and would probably be only marginally effective against Russian hypersonic cruise missiles.

They'd help against much slower missile and rocket attacks and some artillery but the cost would be crazy high.

Also, IIUC, Ukrainians would need to be trained to be able to use the systems.

Training is a minor and easily overcome hurdle. The real issues are scarcity, secrecy, and the $50m per unit/$150K per use cost (for Iron Dome, somewhat less for Patriot). To the secrecy end, training Ukrainians in use would be an intelligence risk. Patriot requires over 80 personnel to support each battery. Iron Dome requires a distributed radar and coverage network with hundreds of support.

[Daehawk]

[El Guapo]

By the way I noticed last night that Netflix now has Zelenskyy's 2015 Ukrainian show where he played a high school teacher who releases a viral anti-corruption monologue and winds up getting elected President of Ukraine. Called Servant of the People. I'm definitely going to check out at least the first episode - gotta be a little surreal.

[Daehawk]

Remember that little girl who sang in the bomb shelter? She made it out and sang on stage in Poland to a massive crowd.

A 7-year-old girl who sang 'Let it Go' in a Kyiv bomb shelter performed on stage in front of a massive crowd in Poland after fleeing Ukraine

[Jaymann]

This is getting serious:

Sergey Karjakin banned from chess for 6 months due to pro-Russian comments. Not long ago Karjakin was in a match for the World Championship. This is not your father's FIDE.

[Daehawk]

Ukraine captured a batch of Russia's missiles and fired them back at its troops, report says

President Zelenskyy earlier joked that captured gear made Russia a top arms supplier to Ukraine.

[Daehawk]

[Daehawk]

Kinda like a video game game.

[Grifman]

Oops:



That’s 12.5% of their total force in 3 weeks, many of them their best troops. No wonder they are recruiting Syrians, Libyans, and Africans. No wonder they have stalled out on most fronts. Most of those losses will be in combat units, so it’s even worse in some ways.

[Max Peck]

Kinda like a video game game.

I believe that's the same soldier who was featured in a recent NYT article.

Lieutenant Chornovol drives a red Chevy Volt electric hatchback, which she calls an “ecologically clean killing machine.”

[Max Peck]

A recent thread by Mark Hertling that provides some insight into why Russian casualties are so high. (Spoiler: You maybe don't want to be in a Russian vehicle when it is hit by an anti-tank weapon.)

Now, I share all this to say:

RU tanks are matchboxes.
-crews have a hard time seeing attacking infantry
-there is no reactive armor on top (where Javelins strike)
-if hit, they'll burn, with secondary explosions
-if hit, the crew will have a tough time getting out. 16/

BMPs/BRDMs/BTRs are actually worse.

In Desert Storm, we saw these vehicles after they were hit, and most were destroyed by smaller caliber weapons....and all burned. Their fuel tanks are in the back doors...so they burn, fast and hot, and crews can't get out. 17/

Russian Fuel, Ammo, and supply (medical, parts, etc) trucks are all the same design.

And from what I saw on exercises, RU troops pack as much as they can in each truck, sometimes mixing cargo.

Not good for crew survivability, if the truck is hit. 18/

[LawBeefaroni]

Oops:



That’s 12.5% of their total force in 3 weeks, many of them their best troops. No wonder they are recruiting Syrians, Libyans, and Africans. No wonder they have stalled out on most fronts. Most of those losses will be in combat units, so it’s even worse in some ways.

They also want foreign fighters because they are less likely to desert in Ukraine and are less likely to be sympathetic to Russian speakers with whom they share no cultural commonalities. Many Russian troops have family or friends in or from Ukraine.

[Unagi]

I imagine it’s also easier to deal with their dead bodies.

I wonder if we could hand Ukraine money, and have them ‘outbid’ Putin? No loyalty is no loyalty.

I know it’s ridiculous, but it would be fun to see the hired hands just switch sides. Or at least lay down their arms.
Of course mercenaries don’t generally work like that.

[El Guapo]

Oops:



That’s 12.5% of their total force in 3 weeks, many of them their best troops. No wonder they are recruiting Syrians, Libyans, and Africans. No wonder they have stalled out on most fronts. Most of those losses will be in combat units, so it’s even worse in some ways.

They also want foreign fighters because they are less likely to desert in Ukraine and are less likely to be sympathetic to Russian speakers with whom they share no cultural commonalities. Many Russian troops have family or friends in or from Ukraine.

What's the morale likely to be like for foreign fighters, though? Very few Syrians / Libyans / etc. are going to have any sort of ideological reason to die fighting for Russia in Ukraine. You could pay them, but that's not going to give them that much motivation to fight hard / to the death - presumably their main goal is just going to be to survive and not piss off their paymasters too much.

[LawBeefaroni]

What's the morale likely to be like for foreign fighters, though? Very few Syrians / Libyans / etc. are going to have any sort of ideological reason to die fighting for Russia in Ukraine. You could pay them, but that's not going to give them that much motivation to fight hard / to the death - presumably their main goal is just going to be to survive and not piss off their paymasters too much.

You make it sound like money isn't a great motivator. You could promise them life-changing money and be able to pay it. Syria, for example has an average annual salary of $15,000 ($6K outside Damascus). Libya had an 18% unemployment rate in 2019. How did we get commercial truck drivers to drive through IED infested Iraq? I don't think they were putting their lives on the line for Dr. Pepper.

And remember, this isn't just an attacking army. It has to be an occupation force. When it comes time to occupy, who is more likely to do the dirty work required to subdue an occupied populace?

[Isgrimnur]

CNN

A 96-year-old Holocaust survivor, Borys Romanchenko, was killed Friday by a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

Romanchenko's death was confirmed by the Buchenwald concentration camp memorial institute in a series of tweets.

Romanchenko survived the camps at Buchenwald, Peenemünde, Dora and Bergen-Belsen during World War II, the memorial said, adding that it was "stunned" by news of his death.
...
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Romanchenko's death an "unspeakable crime" on Twitter.

"Survived Hitler, murdered by Putin," he wrote.

[LordMortis]

Oops:



That’s 12.5% of their total force in 3 weeks, many of them their best troops. No wonder they are recruiting Syrians, Libyans, and Africans. No wonder they have stalled out on most fronts. Most of those losses will be in combat units, so it’s even worse in some ways.

I can only imagine it's hard to go to combat with people you considered your country men. But mercenaries? They kill and be killed much easier I would think. Much less human. I also would think Putin would value their lives even less than he values his own young men and women.

[raydude]

This guy keeps making wartime truck logistics a fascinating read. This time a short comparison between logistics for the WW2 Red Ball Express and Russian truck logistics in the Ukraine

[Kraken]

I've been ruminating over the prospect of WW3. The calls for more direct US involvement grow stronger as the humanitarian catastrophe builds. Some say that WW3 has already begun and we are too blind to recognize it. I don't think so.

Russia doesn't have the military, industrial, or economic might to fight a conventional world war. It's obvious from the indigestion that Ukraine is giving them that Putin isn't going to move into Poland or the Baltics. Nor does he have allies with the requisite power, except for China. This isn't Xi's fight and he's not going to form an Axis with Russia as cover to snatch Taiwan. China is heavily invested in the long game.

If the Allies do confront Russia directly, I think Putin will go nuclear rather than accept a decisive and humiliating defeat or the prospect of being deposed. I'm no longer wavering on that question. As frustrating as it is, we must continue to resist the impulse to engage Russian forces to end the slaughter. The chance that millions would die is too real.

So yeah, Imma boldly come out against starting WW3.

[YellowKing]

I read a great article (sorry, don't have it handy, it came in an email I've since deleted). But it was talking about Cold War game theory involving nuclear weapons. And the gist of it was that we are doing exactly what we need to be doing. Making it clear to Russia that we are not going to be the aggressor to widen this war, while at the same time doing everything we can from a defensive posture (which includes supplying defensive weapons to Ukraine).

We've got to snuff out this fire not by attacking it with a water hose, but by slowly suffocating it.

[Daehawk]

I wish someone would rise up and get rid of him. He is one man. If everyone said NO he would be gone and stuff would be good. I'm shocked the Russian police actually arrest people for protesting. I mean really? In this 21st century day and age? Come on people. Fix yourselves. Dont make others fix you. That causes even more problems.

[Daehawk]

[dfs]

I'm shocked the Russian police actually arrest people for protesting.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not.

[Isgrimnur]

This guy keeps making wartime truck logistics a fascinating read. This time a short comparison between logistics for the WW2 Red Ball Express and Russian truck logistics in the Ukraine

Great job, context ad server!

[Kurth]

I've been ruminating over the prospect of WW3. The calls for more direct US involvement grow stronger as the humanitarian catastrophe builds. Some say that WW3 has already begun and we are too blind to recognize it. I don't think so.

Russia doesn't have the military, industrial, or economic might to fight a conventional world war. It's obvious from the indigestion that Ukraine is giving them that Putin isn't going to move into Poland or the Baltics. Nor does he have allies with the requisite power, except for China. This isn't Xi's fight and he's not going to form an Axis with Russia as cover to snatch Taiwan. China is heavily invested in the long game.

If the Allies do confront Russia directly, I think Putin will go nuclear rather than accept a decisive and humiliating defeat or the prospect of being deposed. I'm no longer wavering on that question. As frustrating as it is, we must continue to resist the impulse to engage Russian forces to end the slaughter. The chance that millions would die is too real.

So yeah, Imma boldly come out against starting WW3.

That's bold of you, there, Kraken! I'm not advocating for WW3, either.

And, contrary to Alefroth's post above, I'm not cavalier about millions of lives. I'm just having a hard time reconciling that millions of lives are currently at risk in Ukraine, and we're concerned about "antagonizing Russia" at the same time we have essentially declared war on Russia's economy while providing lethal support to the Ukranian militarily that is undeniably and very directly resulting in the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers.

Some questions I am asking myself:

(1) Will Putin accept anything less than a complete conquest of Ukraine at this point?
(2) Is there any redline Putin is unwilling to cross in securing that objective?
(3) Assuming the answer to (2) is NO, do the Ukranians have any chance of withstanding Russia's aggression?
(3) Is there any redline Putin could cross that would defeat the "but he has nukes" argument and cause NATO to intervene directly in the conflict?
- (3)(a) Thermobaric bombardment of Ukranian cities?
- (3)(b) Chemical weapons?
- (3)(c) Concentration/extermination camps?
- (3)(d) Tactical nukes?
(4) If Biden's forecast today is accurate that Putin is about to unleash significant cyber attacks on the U.S. and U.S. businesses, does that change the calculus?

Then again, (4) isn't really new, is it? It's not like Putin hasn't already attacked us via cyber attacks and attacks on our election integrity.

In the end, I'm frustrated that it sometimes seems like those hoping to contain Putin and Russia right now are dangerously close to repeating mistakes we should have learned from.

[Kraken]

(1) Will Putin accept anything less than a complete conquest of Ukraine at this point?

A rational Putin will accept a deal that looks like Russian victory: control of the two breakaway "republics", recognition of Crimea as Russian, pinky-swear that Ukraine will never join NATO, and the Zelensky government's resignation.

IDK if we are facing a rational Putin -- that is, to what extent his yes-men are insulating him from reality, and to what extent he is ready to destroy Ukraine in order to save it. He could be acting rationally on disinformation.

[raydude]

(1) Will Putin accept anything less than a complete conquest of Ukraine at this point?

A rational Putin will accept a deal that looks like Russian victory: control of the two breakaway "republics", recognition of Crimea as Russian, pinky-swear that Ukraine will never join NATO, and the Zelensky government's resignation.

IDK if we are facing a rational Putin -- that is, to what extent his yes-men are insulating him from reality, and to what extent he is ready to destroy Ukraine in order to save it. He could be acting rationally on disinformation.

Maybe that looks rational to the Russians but to the Ukranians? They just fought Russia to a stalemate and they're the ones losing territory? I think that's probably a non-starter for them.

[malchior]

(1) Will Putin accept anything less than a complete conquest of Ukraine at this point?

A rational Putin will accept a deal that looks like Russian victory: control of the two breakaway "republics", recognition of Crimea as Russian, pinky-swear that Ukraine will never join NATO, and the Zelensky government's resignation.

IDK if we are facing a rational Putin -- that is, to what extent his yes-men are insulating him from reality, and to what extent he is ready to destroy Ukraine in order to save it. He could be acting rationally on disinformation.

Maybe that looks rational to the Russians but to the Ukranians? They just fought Russia to a stalemate and they're the ones losing territory? I think that's probably a non-starter for them.

It can't be a non-starter. Or more accurately that isn't a sustainable position. They apparently have stopped Russia from achieving it's immediate strategic goals. Great. That unfortunately doesn't mean the Ukrainians likely will have the ability to dislodge the Russians from dug in positions. Or stop the Russians from bombarding their cities.

[malchior]

So this is a fairly technical financial thread but ultimately it looks like there are indications that there are banks working around the sanctions regime (aka laundering) and that the Russians have enough hard currency to buy goods/services via balance of trade cash flows. This is my shocked face.



Thread Unrolled here

So my final take is the following: the way the sanctions system is designed, the CBR can pretty much “outsource” its FX management to private sector entities.

And there are, ultimately, US banks involved. The risk that this could backfire in the future is definitely non zero.
But more importantly, finding a way to close this loophole would be a massive blow to Russia’s economy – because so far, sanctions are only partially working.

[raydude]

Unverified report. Presumably the same lack of component parts will affect the ability to repair damaged Russian tanks.

Russia's only tank tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, has stopped its production. The main reason for this is a lack of component parts.