Octopus Overlords

Biden campaign stuck in neutral due to Sanders and Covid-19. tl;dr version. Biden can't effectively fund raise because of failing economy and inability to meet with donors. The DNC could pitch in but Sanders needs to drop or else they are taking sides. It is complicated for sure.

One aspect is that Sanders is still playing this game and it doesn't speak very well to his character in a time of national existential crisis. However, the piece also shows Biden's lack of flexibility and ability to react to the current state which further reinforces the emerging reality that he is not a great candidate. This also has a feedback effect that likely fuels Sanders reluctance to drop out.

Joe Biden reached a new and heady milestone when he shellacked Bernie Sanders in Florida, Illinois and Arizona to become the de facto Democratic nominee for president.

But there was no soaring speech to acknowledge the moment. He never took the stage amid a sea of Biden signs or before an adoring crowd on national television. Biden was instead stuck in a makeshift studio in his Delaware home, webcasting his remarks with a low-quality personal computer camera against a straight-out-of-YouTube black backdrop and two American flags.

He warned about the coronavirus contagion. He offered an olive branch to Bernie Sanders. Then, despite two consecutive weeks of smashing victories, he all but disappeared from the news cycle for days.

The moment was a perfect distillation of Biden’s current predicament — in a state of suspended political animation, trapped between a rival who refuses to quit and the global pandemic that has all but shut down the Democratic primary campaign.

Because Sanders won’t quit, Biden can’t fully pivot to the general election. He can’t truly unite the party’s warring factions. Nor can he begin stockpiling the vast amounts of money he’ll need for November. His momentum has effectively been stopped cold.

There are some "progressives" that are claiming that Trump is going to run to the left of Biden.

For example, here's Sander's press secretary:

https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/ ... 5514376192

Or how about this

https://twitter.com/samseder/status/1236021635192406021

It's absolute garbage - Biden's campaign is progressive and is only "moderate" when compared with Sanders and Warren- and this just highlights how fake some "progressives" are.

You know, in terms of projecting leadership, and knowing nothing at all of their politics, I'd happily vote for Cuomo or Fauci at this point.

PA is postponing primary to June

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/03 ... ronavirus/

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) plans to participate in a Democratic National Committee (DNC) debate in April should one be scheduled, his campaign said Tuesday.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ate-report

Logging in to Twitter just now, I see the hashtag #ibelievetarareade trending.

Apparently, a woman by the name of Tara Reade is accusing Joe Biden of sexual assault when she was a staff assistant of his in 1993. I don't see much about this on the main news sites, but plenty of blogs and anonymous Twitter accounts (and Shaun King, naturally) are going on and on about it.

pr0ner wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:28 pm Logging in to Twitter just now, I see the hashtag #ibelievetarareade trending.

Apparently, a woman by the name of Tara Reade is accusing Joe Biden of sexual assault when she was a staff assistant of his in 1993. I don't see much about this on the main news sites, but plenty of blogs and anonymous Twitter accounts (and Shaun King, naturally) are going on and on about it.

Well, knowing absolutely nothing whatsoever about it, it wouldn't surprise me if a woman felt that Grabby Joe had violated her personal space. He's a borderline creepy hugger, after all. Neither does it surprise me that supporters of the pussy-grabber are quick to believe it. "Sexual assault"? Need more information.

If he had simply grabbed her by the pussy this would be a non-issue.

Funny how this stuff only comes out when the one accused becomes important.

I'm not seeing any discussion of the accuser on any mainstream outlets at this point (The Hill is a start, but nothing elsewhere). What's the deal - is she not super credible? Or is it just taking time to pierce media coverage with all the coronavirus coverage?

Maybe a Russian thing? They are pretty active.

The story (that Biden put his hand up her skirt in a semi-public place and then called her "nothing to him") is so disjointed that it doesn't make sense. I have no doubt someone is using her.

Zarathud wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:19 am The story (that Biden put his hand up her skirt in a semi-public place and then called her "nothing to him") is so disjointed that it doesn't make sense. I have no doubt someone is using her.

I don't know if someone is using her. She easily could have her own agenda but the story is weird in a non-credible way. Her boss at the time asked her to bring a random bag to Joe. It is sort of implied that the boss was sending her to Joe because 'he heard she liked him' -- implicating the boss. Then Joe got very familiar at the Capitol in a 'side area' out in the open. To be honest, it reads a little like fan fiction. It doesn't mean it isn't true. It just seems unlikely it is true. She also (at least for now) doesn't have anyone else backing this up. Meaning she hasn't brought forth anyone that she told about it at the time.

Boris Johnson has the virus now too.

Scoop20906 wrote:Boris Johnson has the virus now too.

Oops wrong thread.

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:17 am

Zarathud wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:19 am The story (that Biden put his hand up her skirt in a semi-public place and then called her "nothing to him") is so disjointed that it doesn't make sense. I have no doubt someone is using her.

I don't know if someone is using her. She easily could have her own agenda but the story is weird in a non-credible way. Her boss at the time asked her to bring a random bag to Joe. It is sort of implied that the boss was sending her to Joe because 'he heard she liked him' -- implicating the boss. Then Joe got very familiar at the Capitol in a 'side area' out in the open. To be honest, it reads a little like fan fiction. It doesn't mean it isn't true. It just seems unlikely it is true. She also (at least for now) doesn't have anyone else backing this up. Meaning she hasn't brought forth anyone that she told about it at the time.

If you watch the video, it's super credible. She also brought it up a year before to a group that declined to investigate. She filed a harassment case when it happened. Further, Joe has ALWAYS been creepy and handsy.

This is not an all of a sudden she appears out of nowhere.

This should be investigated as much as it can be 30 years later, and for the election it shouldn't make a difference. We already know Trump has done worse just with regard to women and ignoring all the corruption and stupidity.

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:17 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:17 am

Zarathud wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:19 am The story (that Biden put his hand up her skirt in a semi-public place and then called her "nothing to him") is so disjointed that it doesn't make sense. I have no doubt someone is using her.

I don't know if someone is using her. She easily could have her own agenda but the story is weird in a non-credible way. Her boss at the time asked her to bring a random bag to Joe. It is sort of implied that the boss was sending her to Joe because 'he heard she liked him' -- implicating the boss. Then Joe got very familiar at the Capitol in a 'side area' out in the open. To be honest, it reads a little like fan fiction. It doesn't mean it isn't true. It just seems unlikely it is true. She also (at least for now) doesn't have anyone else backing this up. Meaning she hasn't brought forth anyone that she told about it at the time.

If you watch the video, it's super credible. She also brought it up a year before to a group that declined to investigate. She filed a harassment case when it happened. Further, Joe has ALWAYS been creepy and handsy.

This is qualitatively very different from the previous allegations around Biden, though. Those were essentially "he touched my hair / gave me back rubs at inappropriate times". Not ok, to be sure, but very different from this, which is essentially rape.

Kind of the big question for me is why it's being picked up now, and not before. Is this a Cosby-esque type situation where the allegations are out there but everyone's just been ignoring it? Or is this something that's been considered by various parties before and not picked up because there wasn't enough supporting evidence?

Also, FWIW, the allegations make it sound like this wasn't exactly a one-time thing. If that's the case, then there should be more accusers out there who could come forward.

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:17 amIf you watch the video, it's super credible.

I did. I don't find it credible based on the things I mentioned. It's my opinion and I take these very seriously. However, the ones that are most credible are usually very similar. They told a group of friends at the time. They reported it to an authority. She claims it was reported and ignored. If they dig up that report, it'll make it more credible but it'll depend on what/when she reported it.

She also brought it up a year before to a group that declined to investigate.

A year ago. Not 25 years ago.

She filed a harassment case when it happened.

She said last year that she reported it to the Senate Personnel office but it was of a different nature. She complained about handsy activity. That is an issue. Then a year later she ups the severity by an order of magnitude and its this weird out in the open story? I don't know. That is pretty iffy. Maybe she held back but this is the problem with some of this stuff going back 25 years. I find it odd that no one else is standing behind her story. That is the part that always make it credible to me. Maybe she doesn't share with friends but it hurts her credibility.

Further, Joe has ALWAYS been creepy and handsy.

I don't disagree but this went beyond handsy/creepy to sexual assault in a public place. It is far more serious than the other allegations. It has a much higher bar IMO to be credible.

This is not an all of a sudden she appears out of nowhere.

Never said that.

This should be investigated as much as it can be 30 years later, and for the election it shouldn't make a difference. We already know Trump has done worse just with regard to women and ignoring all the corruption and stupidity.

Sure. I'd welcome her producing anything to support her and investigate it but that is going to be difficult.

I just finished watching "Leaving Neverland" and listening to a podcast called "Catching Cosby". After listening to those this really bothers me. I can't say whether these allegations are true or not, but it bothers me after watching/listening to those shows. I really DON'T want it to be true but . . . that said, it is very rare for sexual predators to have only one victim. If she told people sometime more close in time to the occurrence of the event and other women come forward, I'd have to assess this account as credible.

If it is true, or even just convincing, then Biden is finished as the nominee. Does that give us Bernie, or a chaos convention? For now, we must continue to proceed as if there will still be an election in November.

Hard to believe we've put up with the orange moron for 4 years. Feels like 51.

Kraken wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:55 pm If it is true, or even just convincing, then Biden is finished as the nominee. Does that give us Bernie, or a chaos convention? For now, we must continue to proceed as if there will still be an election in November.

If Biden were to drop out (for any reason), that doesn't automatically elevate Bernie. It means a few suspended campaigns suddenly unsuspend themselves, which probably would lead to a contested convention (with, ironically, Biden-and-his-delegates as likely kingmaker).

The nation could use an Elizabeth Warren and a plan right about now.

And I thought Biden should have been weeded out a long time ago after all those other women stepped forward. But don't underestimate the power of the political machine to shut people up. It's not a Democrat or Republican thing, but an institutional thing.

If Biden were to drop out (which I think very unlikely), I wouldn't be surprised if Cuomo were chosen by the delegates to be the nominee, given his current rise. (If Biden hadn't said he would pick a woman, I would have thought Cuomo would be picked, absent some Trump-level scandal)

Rank-and-file Dems would lose their minds if the convention coronates someone who hasn't even campaigned, much less won a single vote. Bernie supporters in particular would be justifiably outraged.

Like $iljanus, I'd love to see Warren's campaign resurrected. Arguably, Dems will be more open to a female nominee if Biden falls to a #MeToo scandal. But I've never stopped pining for Warren, so that's just my bias showing.

I haven't read a peep about the accusation in the mainstream media yet, so perhaps it will just remain in the right-wing rumor bin. While our tribe is predisposed to believe the accuser, the timing is obviously highly suspicious.

So he would be running against a creep who paid off a stripper to keep her quiet...

I'd say we're getting considerably ahead of ourselves on this one, as I still don't see any traction for the story.

El Guapo wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:17 pm I'd say we're getting considerably ahead of ourselves on this one, as I still don't see any traction for the story.

Checking their website, Fox News isn't even using it as a distraction. Right now, this doesn't hit even a National Pancake Day level.

Kraken wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:49 am Rank-and-file Dems would lose their minds if the convention coronates someone who hasn't even campaigned, much less won a single vote. Bernie supporters in particular would be justifiably outraged.

Anecdotally, I've seen everyone from (non-Bernie Bro) Sanders supporters to Republicans heaping praise on Cuomo, so I don't think it would be unimaginable (and under such a scenario, it would be our representatives voting for him)

It also looks like betting markets agree on the possibility.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... nomination
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... omination/

Well, I would prefer Cuomo to Biden...but I prefer almost anybody to Biden.

Cuomo is having his leadership moment right now, but he could be a hard sell to a left-moving party. Every New Yorker I know considers him not just a centrist but openly hostile to progressives.

Trump sometimes talks about loving unions (but not their leadership). Cuomo's record is such that Trump could attack him from the left on some labor issues.

Hearing from some of my progressive (but not Bernie Bro) friends, Cuomo has been extremely progressive on some things, while also putting the breaks on other progressive things, so he's something of a mixed bag (although he's been moving more progressive since Trump's been in office). The bigger issue, IIUC, is one of corruption.

I posted a MTP clip in the My Corona thread but there was a 2nd interesting clip from the show as well. Biden went on MTP to give his comments. First I'll say it is good that he is getting onto these shows. It allows him to skim the waves while the crisis plays out. This is a good course correction from a week ago.

Secondly, his response is very good here. Todd set him up for bombast and Biden went a smarter road. He gave a measured, insightful answer. He laid out a good plan on next steps. That of course is already causing noise from the Bernie Bros that he doesn't have enough fight. I get that instinct especially with this guy. However, I don't think this isn't the time for these sort of attacks. Especially with people rallying to the flag at the moment.

As an aside, it was interesting to watch live. Biden dropped his head as Todd asked the question and you can surmise that was the moment that Biden pinned down the question's gravitas. That wasn't slow and it wasn't someone in mental decline. He took time to let Chuck finish while he put something together. That is a good sign to me.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1244287546810662918

CHUCK TODD: Do you think there is blood on the president's hands, considering the slow coronavirus response?

JOE BIDEN: "I think that's a little too harsh."

My hope (and I do believe fairly strongly this is true) is that once people start seeing Biden's calm and measured responses compared to Trump's schizophrenic gobbledygook, his support will go up even more. Right now Biden holds a lead on Trump even though to most Americans he's mostly invisible. I can only think that his stock is going to continue to rise as he gets in front of more voters.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... e=facebook

Washington Post wrote:In an interview on “Fox & Friends,” Trump referenced proposals from Democrats in the coronavirus stimulus negotiations that would have vastly increased funding for absentee and vote-by-mail options. The final package included $400 million for the effort, which was far less than what Democrats had sought.

“The things they had in there were crazy,” Trump said. “They had things — levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”

Biden is in the same place that Ted Kennedy was in when he ran against Carter. Carter was dealing with the Iran hostage crisis and it was difficult for Kennedy to attack Carter or get any traction because it was all about the hostages and Carter used a "Rose Garden" strategy of largely sticking to pronouncements from the White House. It is going to be very hard for him to effectively campaign while this is going on - and it would be hard for anyone. Trumps 6:00 pm virus press conferences are a joke but it at least allows the undivided attention of the press and he can sort of appear presidential to some proportion of the population. It's obviously working, regardless of what we think as his approval ratings are up and people generally approve of how he is handing the crisis. Only time will tell if this holds as the economic losses and body count rises. But Trump has been counted out before . . .

Americans want a strong leader. Absent that, they'll take a strongman. They'll never mistake Biden for either. Trump's going to be fine.

Worth pointing out that while Trump's approval has jumped from the mid-40s to the high 40s/low 50s, Cuomo's has jumped from the mid-40s to the 70s or low 80s.

How many not-New Yorkers knew anything about Cuomo before 2 weeks ago? I wonder who they polled.

Like I said somewhere else and will probably repeat, because I do that: Americans want a strong leader or a strongman, or at least somebody who plays one on TV. Republicans have one; Democrats don't.