The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

[Daehawk]

We beat the bug yay us ....back to normal.

[Kasey Chang]

What truly amazes me is parents should be the most protective agents of their children, so-called free-ranging parents notwithstanding. I understand you don't wrap your children in bubblewrap when they go outside, but you'd want them to enjoy every protection that's reasonable and available, and against COVID, the two things that do work are vaccines and masks. How did the Qanon Fodder parents conclude that masks are unreasonable? Do they REALLY believe that children can't catch COVID?

[Blackhawk]

How did the Qanon Fodder parents conclude that masks are unreasonable?

Because the libs want them, and therefore people accepting masks are libs.

Do they REALLY believe that children can't catch COVID?

That, or that it's just like a cold in kids. In the list of absurd things that they've come to believe, this doesn't even raise an eyebrow. Once you've given up on reason in favor of emotion being fed by a third party, reality simply doesn't matter anymore. It can't. And once you cross that line into reality not mattering, anything is fair game.

[YellowKing]

Unfortunately my wife working in the public school system opened my eyes to the fact that there are a LOT of parents - including ones from middle class families - that care a lot less about their kids than you would imagine.

[Smoove_B]

Historical perspective

https://twitter.com/dmahugh/status/1459698801254420482

At its peak (1952), polio killed 3,145 Americans. After a vaccine became available in 1955, all 50 states passed laws requiring polio vaccination before kids can enter public schools.

COVID killed 345,000 Americans in 2020, and has killed 416,000 more so far in 2021.

I'd also seen a quick piece yesterday on how the influenza vaccination is now political. Back in 2015 the polls done had very little difference (a few % points) between registered (R) and (D) over whether or not they were going to get the annual flu shot. Now? The polling done is very close to declared political affiliation and likelihood of COVID vaccination. We are so broken.

[Unagi]

I notice that it’s that all 50 states passed laws, and not that it was federal. Of course the horse is out of the barn for asking states to look at this non politically.

[LawBeefaroni]

Scott Gottlieb from FTN yesterday:

Anyone who's eligible for a booster, and most Americans probably are eligible for a booster at this point, should be going out and seeking it. And this is the fastest way that we can increase the total immunity in the population because someone who has an old vaccine that may only have 50% of its effectiveness left, they go out and get a booster. They restore 95% effectiveness based on the data that we've seen within a matter of days. So the fastest way that we can get increased immunity in the population and increase the total immunity in the population may be through boosting people who've already been vaccinated with two doses. Plus, it's going to be easier to convert that person. It's going to be much easier to convince someone who's had two doses of vaccine to go out and get a third than to convince one of the 18% of Americans who's chosen to remain unvaccinated this long to get vaccinated for the first time.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You just said that was one of the biggest missteps- missteps in this pandemic. This pandemic has been full of mistakes. Why is this the biggest one?

DR. GOTTLIEB: Yeah look, I- I think when we look back, this may be a very big missed opportunity to try to get ahead of this Delta wave, again, because this is going to be the fastest way that we can increase the total immunity in the population. We have to look at the immunity in terms of not just how many people have been vaccinated, but also the depth of immunity, how many people have a lot of residual immune protection against this virus and are going to be what we call a dead-end host and not going to be someone who can catch and spread this virus. And the fastest way to turn someone into a dead-end host is to get them fully vaccinated. There's a lot of people with declining vaccine effectiveness right now who can both catch and spread this virus. If we give them a booster, we restore the full effectiveness of that vaccine.

I'd say there's some recency bias WRT to it being the biggest misstep but it's certainly an opportunity we don't want to miss.

[Smoove_B]

I notice that it’s that all 50 states passed laws, and not that it was federal. Of course the horse is out of the barn for asking states to look at this non politically.

Yes, public health is (and always has been) a state issue - it's not in the Constitution. Its the entire reason public health has been so fragmented for 70+ years in America and why your zip code likely determines your access and benefits to public health services.

COVID-19 has cracked open the fundamental flaw in operation and as long as you have states that are going to actively work against a unified pandemic response, we are wasting so much time, energy and resources in trying to keep it under control. Oh, and hundreds of thousands of people are dying while millions suffer. That too. But...freedom.

[Smoove_B]

I'd say there's some recency bias WRT to it being the biggest misstep but it's certainly an opportunity we don't want to miss.

I agree - with you and to his point about offering boosters now to everyone.

I saw some data this morning from VT and cases are shooting up at an insane rate, which is a little surprising for a state that has ~82% with one dose and somewhere around 72% fully vaccinated. If they're seeing a significant number of cases in VT among people that didn't get a booster? That does not bode well for the rest of us as the virus shifts north.

[LordMortis]

Scott Gottlieb from FTN yesterday:

Anyone who's eligible for a booster, and most Americans probably are eligible for a booster at this point, should be going out and seeking it. And this is the fastest way that we can increase the total immunity in the population because someone who has an old vaccine that may only have 50% of its effectiveness left, they go out and get a booster. They restore 95% effectiveness based on the data that we've seen within a matter of days. So the fastest way that we can get increased immunity in the population and increase the total immunity in the population may be through boosting people who've already been vaccinated with two doses. Plus, it's going to be easier to convert that person. It's going to be much easier to convince someone who's had two doses of vaccine to go out and get a third than to convince one of the 18% of Americans who's chosen to remain unvaccinated this long to get vaccinated for the first time.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You just said that was one of the biggest missteps- missteps in this pandemic. This pandemic has been full of mistakes. Why is this the biggest one?

DR. GOTTLIEB: Yeah look, I- I think when we look back, this may be a very big missed opportunity to try to get ahead of this Delta wave, again, because this is going to be the fastest way that we can increase the total immunity in the population. We have to look at the immunity in terms of not just how many people have been vaccinated, but also the depth of immunity, how many people have a lot of residual immune protection against this virus and are going to be what we call a dead-end host and not going to be someone who can catch and spread this virus. And the fastest way to turn someone into a dead-end host is to get them fully vaccinated. There's a lot of people with declining vaccine effectiveness right now who can both catch and spread this virus. If we give them a booster, we restore the full effectiveness of that vaccine.

I'd say there's some recency bias WRT to it being the biggest misstep but it's certainly an opportunity we don't want to miss.

I look to Gottlieb as a source of information in the know but he sways with the tide. Good for science, bad for weighted statement setting public expectations. Two weeks ago he said we were out of the deep end. Now he's saying we'll be out of the deep end in spring. (which is what I've been hoping for all along)

[LawBeefaroni]

He's the former FDA commissioner and he's on the Pfizer board so he has great information on vaccines. But he's also former FDA commissioner and on the Pfizer board so take with a small grain of salt when it comes to public health.

[Defiant]

I may have missed this getting posted, but in case it hasn't:

The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis released to CNN on Friday new evidence showing how US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials were pressured by Trump administration officials to alter scientific guidance and prevented from communicating directly with the public.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/12/politics ... index.html

[Blackhawk]

My eldest and I got our flu shots today. Michelle and my other son already had theirs.

As to the booster, I came across this quote from the State Health Commissioner today: "I think that anybody who really would like to have a booster should feel free to sign up and get a booster”" Indiana has no shortage of adult-dose vaccines (people aren't exactly lining up), so I'm likely going to give it a few days and get the rest of us boosted.

[Smoove_B]

There needs to be a zero tolerance, no-fly across all airlines policy for this. Unreal.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 5354844165

A Southwest Airlines employee was taken to a hospital after a passenger assaulted her during the boarding process at Dallas Love Field Airport on Saturday, airline officials said.

[malchior]

I agree. I'll say having flown last week it seems like everyone is on their last nerve. The flight attendants are justifiably tired of having to deal with assholes and the passengers are cranky because they are getting the blowback of frazzled flight attendants who are sick of people's shit. It's probably a sort of negative feedback loop. I am on a flight tomorrow again (ugh) so I can't wait to see how this one pans out.

[Smoove_B]

I spoke to someone last week that was on a flight (I think from FL to NJ) and the person next to them opened a bag of M&Ms after takeoff and proceeded to sit the entire flight unmasked, slowly eating one at a time. Sometimes I think I am avoiding going back into these situations because I know I am incapable of restraint; I'm absolutely done with these people. All of them.

[Skinypupy]

[LawBeefaroni]

There needs to be a zero tolerance, no-fly across all airlines policy for this. Unreal.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 5354844165

A Southwest Airlines employee was taken to a hospital after a passenger assaulted her during the boarding process at Dallas Love Field Airport on Saturday, airline officials said.

Prison is a decent proxy for no-fly.

[El Guapo]

I'd say there's some recency bias WRT to it being the biggest misstep but it's certainly an opportunity we don't want to miss.

I agree - with you and to his point about offering boosters now to everyone.

I saw some data this morning from VT and cases are shooting up at an insane rate, which is a little surprising for a state that has ~82% with one dose and somewhere around 72% fully vaccinated. If they're seeing a significant number of cases in VT among people that didn't get a booster? That does not bode well for the rest of us as the virus shifts north.

Seems like the public health consensus on boosters has shifted pretty sharply from "only worth it for unusually vulnerable people due to limited data on waning availability and the need to get more people first doses" to "we should be giving everyone boosters" in the last month or two, is that right? Is that due to there now being more data on waning immunity, or something else?

[Unagi]

I got the feeling that it was because there were plenty of doses to go around. (And that is to say that what we have we may as well use, because we can’t just magically share them with the places that are short)

[Smoove_B]

Seems like the public health consensus on boosters has shifted pretty sharply to "only worth it for unusually vulnerable people due to limited data on waning availability and the need to get more people first doses" to "we should be giving everyone boosters" in the last month or two, is that right? Is that due to there now being more data on waning immunity, or something else?

Yes, the shift has been rather fast. I think there's now 10 studies showing that the waning immunity issue (for all three vaccines) is significant and with only ~60% fully vaccinated, you now have quite a bit of fuel for the virus to get nutty again this winter. The fact that it's causing severe illness (hospitalization-level illness) in vaccinated populations with waning immunity is likely driving the push.

Unless you live in NJ. Then the governor says on Monday "All adults over 18 should get a booster" but then doesn't actually officially lift policy guidelines to make it happen. If only he knew someone that could do that.

And yes, there are still plenty of vaccines to go around. The United States is sitting on the largest surplus of vaccines and also has the greatest number of total cases (to date). USA! USA! USA!

EDIT: In looking on the Internet, we've crossed 5 million deaths globally. I mean, really.

[El Guapo]

Has there been any research on waning immunity for 12 - 17 year olds? With my 9 YO now in the process of getting vaccinated, I suppose that becomes the most pressing issue for my family.

[Blackhawk]

Unless you live in NJ. Then the governor says on Monday "All adults over 18 should get a booster" but then doesn't actually officially lift policy guidelines to make it happen. If only he knew someone that could do that.

And yes, there are still plenty of vaccines to go around. The United States is sitting on the largest surplus of vaccines and also has the greatest number of total cases (to date). USA! USA! USA!

The public health commissioner for Indiana basically said the same thing - if you want the booster, go get it. I'm just waiting until I get today's test results back to schedule for myself and Ian. Caiden will be after Thanksgiving, as he has surgery on Monday.

[Smoove_B]

Has there been any research on waning immunity for 12 - 17 year olds? With my 9 YO now in the process of getting vaccinated, I suppose that becomes the most pressing issue for my family.

Nothing published that I've seen. I believe the concern for hospitalization/death in 12-17 isn't as high (currently) and prior to May of 2021 there wasn't a belief vaccinated people could still potentially spread it, so that wasn't on the radar. However, now that we know it's possible and vaccinated people are at risk for hospitalization (highest risk 8+ months after completed series) and can still spread it, I'm not sure if any research is looking specifically at the younger cohorts for their outcomes. To rephrase, I'm confident someone is looking, but it's likely too soon to have data.

It's that VT data that I think needs more detailing - namely the spike cases for 0-24 year olds.

We're back in some crazy matrix where behaviors and use of NPIs are going to matter more and more. What we're seeing now is what happens when a nation prioritizes (and pushes) a vaccination over everything else because they believe the vaccination is the single solution to the problem. It never was and now we need to deal with the consequences of believing it. Masking, ventilation, avoiding indoor environments, etc... will become more and more important as the virus brushes up against everyone - vaccinated (with boosters), only vaccinated 6+ months ago, and of course the unvaccinated. I'm even seeing the messaging on masking changing. It was originally touted as a "my mask protects you; your mask protects me" idea - which was (and still is) true. But now that we know the virus is airborne, your mask also protects you. I personally wear a KF-94 mask indoors around strangers, and I'd advise others to do the same.

I need to slide back into the shadows...

[Zaxxon]

I need to slide back into the shadows...

Fear not; we're all sliding back to darker times.

[LordMortis]

There needs to be a zero tolerance, no-fly across all airlines policy for this. Unreal.

I honestly don't understand how that is not already a thing. Growing up you didn't even joke about screwing with the airlines once you were in the air port. Then we got the TSA. How has "Guess what? Fly private to/from a private air port, cause you're done here." not been a thing since like July of 2020 for violent or "do not comply" passengers? It doesn't make sense to me at all.

Prison is a decent proxy for no-fly.

That works for me but due process is not necessary for the airline to make a safety decision.

Seems like the public health consensus on boosters has shifted pretty sharply to "only worth it for unusually vulnerable people due to limited data on waning availability and the need to get more people first doses" to "we should be giving everyone boosters" in the last month or two, is that right? Is that due to there now being more data on waning immunity, or something else?

Yes, the shift has been rather fast. I think there's now 10 studies showing that the waning immunity issue (for all three vaccines) is significant and with only ~60% fully vaccinated, you now have quite a bit of fuel for the virus to get nutty again this winter. The fact that it's causing severe illness (hospitalization-level illness) in vaccinated populations with waning immunity is likely driving the push.

Unless you live in NJ. Then the governor says on Monday "All adults over 18 should get a booster" but then doesn't actually officially lift policy guidelines to make it happen. If only he knew someone that could do that.

And yes, there are still plenty of vaccines to go around. The United States is sitting on the largest surplus of vaccines and also has the greatest number of total cases (to date). USA! USA! USA!

EDIT: In looking on the Internet, we've crossed 5 million deaths globally. I mean, really.

As far as "the news" has been telling me the shift is based on watching results in Israel.

[El Guapo]

There needs to be a zero tolerance, no-fly across all airlines policy for this. Unreal.

I honestly don't understand how that is not already a thing. Growing up you didn't even joke about screwing with the airlines once you were in the air port. Then we got the TSA. How has "Guess what? Fly private to/from a private air port, cause you're done here." not been a thing since like July of 2020 for violent or "do not comply" passengers? It doesn't make sense to me at all.

Prison is a decent proxy for no-fly.

Given how essential air travel is to economic life these days, I really don't want to create a regular mechanism by which individuals can be banned from all air travel. Especially as we continue to slide into authoritarianism. At the very least, if you did you would also need to build in a whole process and appeal mechanism.

But prosecutors should absolutely go hard on this kind of stuff.

[Blackhawk]

A hearing date with a suspension from all airports (can't get through any checkpoint) until that date, then.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://chicago.chalkbeat.org/2021/11/1 ... reness-day

Chicago’s health commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady and Chicago Public Schools CEO Pedro Martinez on Tuesday lauded the vaccination campaign after 6,687 Chicago Public Schools students, or about 1% of the school body, were inoculated as part of the latest push.

Overall, about 8,300 children across the city received their first doses last Friday — the single-largest day for youth vaccination to date, Arwady said.

“I’ve been very pleased about the early uptake” for 5- to 11-year-olds, Arwady said.

Nearly 13,000 Chicago students, age 5-17, received the vaccine through the weekend.

Keep in mind that there are over 320,000 kids in CPS IIRC. Many are over 11 and already vaccinated, of course.

[Zaxxon]

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/ ... YuYww&s=19

[LawBeefaroni]

It's all low hanging fruit right now. The question is where does "hesitancy" and anti-vax start stalling progress. 75%? 50%?

[Zaxxon]

It's all low hanging fruit right now. The question is where does "hesitancy" and anti-vax start stalling progress. 75%? 50%?

if it's (the point at which the speed drops off a cliff, not where it ultimately stops) 40% I'll be ecstatic.

[Smoove_B]

if it's (the point at which the speed drops off a cliff, not where it ultimately stops) 40% I'll be ecstatic.

I'm guessing it's going to be rather similar (but lower) than the 12-15 uptake (~47%). My guess is somewhere around 35%.

EDIT: Wow, those numbers jumped in 12-15; my bad

As of Nov. 2, 56.7 percent of 12- to 15-year-olds had received at least one vaccine dose, and 47.5 percent of this population was fully vaccinated, according to data from the CDC.

[LordMortis]

Wow. That's kinda hard to reconcile when this site suggests

As of 6 a.m. EDT Nov. 16, a total of 195,435,688 Americans had been fully vaccinated, or 58.9 percent of the country's population, according to the CDC's data.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... ch-15.html

[Smoove_B]

Awesome:

On November 12, 2021, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit granted a motion to stay OSHA's COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing Emergency Temporary Standard, published on November 5, 2021 (86 Fed. Reg. 61402) ("ETS"). The court ordered that OSHA "take no steps to implement or enforce" the ETS "until further court order." While OSHA remains confident in its authority to protect workers in emergencies, OSHA has suspended activities related to the implementation and enforcement of the ETS pending future developments in the litigation.

(emphasis added)

[Isgrimnur]

Never an Andrew Jackson around when you need one.

[Blackhawk]

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/ ... YuYww&s=19

For the 5-11 crowd, Indiana is all the way up to... 1.9%.

[malchior]

ABC News

Vermont is one of the most vaccinated states in the country and has served as a model for its COVID-19 response throughout the pandemic. But now, the state is experiencing its worst COVID-19 surge yet, with several factors -- including its own success -- to blame, officials said.

In Vermont, nearly 72% of residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 -- more than any other state, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. At the same time, it has the 12th-highest rate of new COVID-19 cases over the last week, state data released Tuesday shows.

...

Scott said he isn't reissuing a mask mandate amid the increase in cases, saying he feels it would be an "abuse of power," but encouraged residents to "take a few extra precautions," including wearing masks indoors while in public and getting tested before gatherings.

"If we make smart decisions in the coming weeks, and make an extra effort to protect the vulnerable, we can help reduce hospitalizations," Scott said. "But it takes all of us committing to these smart, practical choices, starting with getting vaccinated."

"None of us wants to step backwards," he added.

[Unagi]

Re: % of 5-11 year olds that were vaccinate by state...

Where does one find that data? All I can find are week old news reports.

[Defiant]

Re: % of 5-11 year olds that were vaccinate by state...

Where does one find that data? All I can find are week old news reports.

It's going to vary by state (if the state even breaks out that data and updates it regularly).

For IL, this site was updated yesterday: https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/vaccin ... y=Illinois

You can use the Jurisdiction-Specific Age Demographics to see that 11.57% of 5-11 year olds have gotten at least one dose.