Octopus Overlords

pengo wrote:fucking stoked, put it all on the line and went short on CBA before market open on Monday and made 50k ! lol a years salary.. Was using CFDs fyi so margin effectively. Made sure I put in-place a guarenteed stop loss, it reduced my profit in doing so but ensured I wouldn't lose my shirt taking so much risk

I think I might take a month off from CFD trading now, might be tempting fate if I continue haha!

That must have been some serious margin.


Optimism ruling the day today. DOW opened up 200, holding steady.

I'm thinking FRE (Freddie Mac) is at least a double from here. If only I had some available cash...come on IRS refund!!

I hate the idea of feeling like I need to sell an existing holding to buy something on sale like this.

Looking at a strong finish, +361 right now.

POT @ $161.


Some big moves in the financials. C up 10%, GS up 15%...BSC around 30%.

Visa IPO is this week. It will be interesting to see what it prices at tonight.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

pengo wrote:fucking stoked, put it all on the line and went short on CBA before market open on Monday and made 50k ! lol a years salary.. Was using CFDs fyi so margin effectively. Made sure I put in-place a guarenteed stop loss, it reduced my profit in doing so but ensured I wouldn't lose my shirt taking so much risk

I think I might take a month off from CFD trading now, might be tempting fate if I continue haha!

That must have been some serious margin.


Optimism ruling the day today. DOW opened up 200, holding steady.

Yeah man I risked just over 100k of my own capital.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

02/20/2008 Bought PTSC@$0.36

03/24/2008 Sold PTSC@$0.52

Current: $0.569



Nobody ever went broke taking profit nobody ever went broke taking a profit nobody ever went broke taking a profit...

Got SOLF on Tuesday at $12.50. Should have waited until yesterday. Broke my rule of not chasing.

Earnings look good though. Might get out even.

General Question on Price Increases.

We've announced a 15% price increase and we're the largest company, by far, in our industry world wide. Our competitors are doing the same. Reason being of course we're getting huge price increases from our suppliers. I was wondering how these things affect stock prices.

On one hand I am pretty sure we'll have an excellent July as people stock up before the increase. On the other hand that means August/September will be crap. So I guess it depends where the quarters fall regarding earnings. Even so the cost of solvents, resins, and all manner of chemicals are going through the roof. I'm thinking that favors the big guys who can negotiate the best prices and the customer starts looking more at cost over service as the increases trickle through.

Any thoughts?

Austin wrote:General Question on Price Increases.

We've announced a 15% price increase and we're the largest company, by far, in our industry world wide. Our competitors are doing the same. Reason being of course we're getting huge price increases from our suppliers. I was wondering how these things affect stock prices.

On one hand I am pretty sure we'll have an excellent July as people stock up before the increase. On the other hand that means August/September will be crap. So I guess it depends where the quarters fall regarding earnings. Even so the cost of solvents, resins, and all manner of chemicals are going through the roof. I'm thinking that favors the big guys who can negotiate the best prices and the customer starts looking more at cost over service as the increases trickle through.

Any thoughts?

Depends on what it does to demand. If the products are essential, then nothing changes. If demand slacks off then it leads to market consolidation.

I am trying to find a way to indirectly invest in SSD technology since we are right on the verge of those hitting mainstream and mainstream prices for use in desktops. Given how dramatic a difference these things make in speed, I think it really is the "next big thing" for computers.

Right now, Intel OWNS the performance space, but I think Intel (INTC) is a bit ripe in terms of valuation right now. Plus with such a large bag of goodies that they sell (CPU's, motherboards, graphics cards, etc), it's hard to invest in core SSD with them.

So who is second best? Well, the end manufacturer of the SSD is not as important as the company that makes the controller imo...this is where the "magic" of SSD lies...and what makes the difference between a crappy, not THAT much better than the fastest "old" hard drive, and one that blows the doors off (like 16x faster than a Velociraptor) the place.

Enter http://www.indilinx.com/, a small startup located in Silicon Valley, (factory in S Korea), that is currently being funded by venture capital (not public currently). I wouldn't be surprised to see WD or Seagate or even a Marvell buy them out before they get that far, to be able to compete with Intel.

Turns out not only can SSD's using Indilinx controllers compete with the previously untouchable Intel G2 drives, but in some cases they can OUTperform them, at much less cost.

So these are the top two players (in terms of PERFORMANCE) when it comes to mainstream SSD, but obviously that is not necessarily the best investment strategy as things such as cost, availability, marketing, etc come into play.

Any thoughts/experience in this area, OIC'ers?

I've just recently started investing...
Put some safe money in TSX for retirement (30+ years)
But decided I'd put some and "gamble" so I've bought 800 shares of BNVI.

They have a great product line and, who knows, it could hit.

I have been steadily going to cash in the past month or so...valuations seem high, nothing is smacking me in the face, etc..still worried about another drop. I rarely (never) try to "time" the broad market as I think it's pretty much a fool's errand, but in this case, I feel strongly these levels are not sustainable given the amount of debt and potential for more deleveraging.

I've been staying mostly with the one/two/three letters from the big board. Blue chips were on sale all year (2009). A few expections I've made are on the NASDAQ like CVLT (thanks dedewhale) and MSFT.

Right now I'm considering re-visiting NYX.



Carpet, I'm not sure what you're asking seeing that Indilinx is private. But IMO, SSDs will be eventually become commodity items like HDDs. End users won't be purchasing them, manufacturers will. Netbooks, iTablets, phones...

Booooooooo

I am hoping that in 6 or 8 months from now, I'll feel solid enough in my savings that I'll start playing. Any ideas on where to start learning how? I won't be throwing shit tons of money at the market. It will be "play money", as my real savings goes into my IRA/pension, so this will ultimately be pull and spend money when it's necessary. I don't want to be the guy who sits there and watches the market all day long with buy/sell attitude. I don't want all my money to go to brokers, win, lose, or draw. I've been looking at several non US traded stocks so I need to be able to do bank traded ADRs, while still being able to collect dividend income, I guess.

Probably more than anything I need to research how to find a broker that is the right fit for me and I don't even know how to do that.

If I had the money now, I'd let Nestle dip a bit further and then dive in to them.

LordMortis wrote: Probably more than anything I need to research how to find a broker that is the right fit for me and I don't even know how to do that.

Assuming you want an online broker, start here. It will give you an idea of what to take into account when looking for one. If it requires a sub, just library the March 16, 2009 edition of Barron's.

I've been looking at several non US traded stocks so I need to be able to do bank traded ADRs.

ADRs are specifically US traded stocks. ADRs are the US version of foreign shares. Nearly all brokers allow you to buy/trade ADRs. For example, Nokia (NOK) trades on the NYSE as an ADR. You can trade it just like you can US Steel (X). If a foreign company doesn't have an ADR, that's where it gets more difficult.

LawBeefaroni wrote:. If a foreign company doesn't have an ADR, that's where it gets more difficult.

Yep, like Vestas Wind...I looked at them a few years ago and thought it would be a great opportunity (it was) but decided not to go through the hassle of the pink sheets. Wish I had!

Re: SSD stuff...basically just throwing things out there...but seriously interested in finding some way to invest a little BEFORE the big demand curve hits. Since SSD will be replacing traditional hard drives soon, I wanted to get in....some how...BEFORE that realization hit Joe Investor. Probably already too late since you can get a top of the (consumer) line Intel 80GB G2 SSD for about $250 right now. The only play *I* see right now is INTC, but as I mentioned, you are buying so much more than SSD there. Maybe there is no pure SSD play currently.

LordMortis wrote:I am hoping that in 6 or 8 months from now, I'll feel solid enough in my savings that I'll start playing. Any ideas on where to start learning how? I won't be throwing shit tons of money at the market. It will be "play money", as my real savings goes into my IRA/pension, so this will ultimately be pull and spend money when it's necessary. I don't want to be the guy who sits there and watches the market all day long with buy/sell attitude. I don't want all my money to go to brokers, win, lose, or draw. I've been looking at several non US traded stocks so I need to be able to do bank traded ADRs, while still being able to collect dividend income, I guess.

Probably more than anything I need to research how to find a broker that is the right fit for me and I don't even know how to do that.

If I had the money now, I'd let Nestle dip a bit further and then dive in to them.

You may want to head over to Motley Fool. They have a ton of online learning tools, classrooms, etc.

http://www.fool.com/how-to-invest/thirt ... but0000001" target="_blank

Hopefully most of those articles aren't full of plugs for their newsletters...I don't think they are.

You can also try their excellent (and fun, imo) virtual stock picking service called CAPS. In advance of putting real money down, you can "pretend" and see how you do. Probably THE best way to learn imo...is just to get in there, and muck around with different stocks...read a lot, etc. Although imho, it is not something you can just read about, or take college courses on, and do well. It is always a learning process that probably just requires experience to do well (or at LEAST not to make some "beginner" mistakes, etc), as opposed to getting lucky.

Here's the link to CAPS (it's free):

http://caps.fool.com/" target="_blank

Carpet_pissr wrote: Re: SSD stuff...basically just throwing things out there...but seriously interested in finding some way to invest a little BEFORE the big demand curve hits. Since SSD will be replacing traditional hard drives soon, I wanted to get in....some how...BEFORE that realization hit Joe Investor. Probably already too late since you can get a top of the (consumer) line Intel 80GB G2 SSD for about $250 right now. The only play *I* see right now is INTC, but as I mentioned, you are buying so much more than SSD there. Maybe there is no pure SSD play currently.

I'd go down rather than up. What do you know about DRAM and NAND (not the ticker symbols, the type of memory)? I don't know much about either but were I to follow your line of thinking (and I might), that's where I'd start.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Although imho, it is not something you can just read about, or take college courses on, and do well. It is always a learning process that probably just requires experience to do well (or at LEAST not to make some "beginner" mistakes, etc), as opposed to getting lucky.

Here's the link to CAPS (it's free):

http://caps.fool.com/" target="_blank

Seconded.

I use caps to bookmark ideas more than anything else but in lieu of a "real money" account it can be a great learning tool.

LawBeefaroni wrote:I'd go down rather than up. What do you know about DRAM and NAND (not the ticker symbols, the type of memory)? I don't know much about either but were I to follow your line of thinking (and I might), that's where I'd start.

Exactly...that was where I was eventually headed before my own rambling thoughts distracted me...the heart of the SSD tech is the controller (the memory is not as important in terms of performance, but certainly in terms of supply those companies will benefit from the coming revolution). But maybe you are right...I guess I should look more closely at ALL the components that go into SSD manufacture (esp given that investing in the controller tech seems a no go right now)

The Meal wrote:Booooooooo

uuurnnnsss?

Who or what are you booing?

Your potential investment into SSDs.

I am definitely taking a bigger interest in investing this year. I dicked around in 08 and 09 making and losing money trading options and stocks, but I am going to take it a little more seriously now. I am setting up a dividends portfolio now, picked up PGF and T and looking at Con Ed next. Want to have a basic 6% dividend on everything going forward.

The Meal wrote:Your potential investment into SSDs.

If it's any consolation, I'm looking at picking up a 1 TB drive for under $100. Unless you work for Hitachi, though, I don't think your employer will see any direct tangible benefit.

The Meal wrote:Your potential investment into SSDs.

Speak, brother.

Carpet_pissr wrote:

The Meal wrote:Your potential investment into SSDs.

Speak, brother.

I work for the competition.

Though most rotating magnetic media HDD companies also have significant investment and R&D going with SSDs. To be unveiled, of course, when profitable.

The Meal wrote:

Carpet_pissr wrote:

The Meal wrote:Your potential investment into SSDs.

Speak, brother.

I work for the competition.

Though most rotating magnetic media HDD companies also have significant investment and R&D going with SSDs. To be unveiled, of course, when profitable.

I would imagine/hope they do. I can't see WDC or Seagate just sitting idly by as their fastest consumer drive gets torn to pieces when compared to the slowest SSD. It's probably a "convert to SSD or die" situation for the traditionals. Or they could just start gobbling up smaller companies like Corsair and OCZ which currently produce SSD drives (and good ones at that, esp. OCZ).

It will be interesting to watch, for sure. Hope your job is ok as the transition happens.

Carpet_pissr wrote:Hope your job is ok as the transition happens.

I'm a mechanical engineer doing R&D. SSDs need one mechanical engineer on staff (the guy that designs the box they get shoved in). Worse yet, I'm a shock and vibration guy. No job for me in the SSD world.

That said, there are still folks making a living doing tape backup work. So there are a few years left, methinks, in the rotating magnetic media career.

Traditional HDD companies understand, very well, how to interface with computers (SATA, IDE, SCSI, SAS, USB, etc.). If you really believe that the genius behind the SSD devices is in controller interfaces, I wouldn't bet against some of the companies you listed in your post.

The Meal wrote:If you really believe that the genius behind the SSD devices is in controller interfaces, I wouldn't bet against some of the companies you listed in your post.

I am no engineer, but from everything that I read, that seems to be the CURRENT differentiating factor between the best consumer SSD (Intel), the second best, and almost as good (Indilinx) and all the rest...(not sure what they are using...Marvell maybe?)

Who knows what the x factor will be when these things REALLY go mainstream, and every Dell desktop you buy except the very bottom line budget model will have an SSD in it (at least as boot drive), and all the players are in the market with their techs. As I said...will be interesting (at least for me, because I am just that much of a nerd).

Carpet_pissr wrote:Who knows what the x factor will be when these things REALLY go mainstream, and every Dell desktop you buy except the very bottom line budget model will have an SSD in it (at least as boot drive), and all the players are in the market with their techs.

Based on your research, when do you expect that day to hit?

From what I hear behind closed doors, what you describe is >5 years away.

What? More than 5 years? WAAA!!!

Surely is Dell places an order it would bring the costs down? Why are they still so expensive to make? Heck 4GB USB Sticks are going for $3 here so I can only guess what the per unit cost is to make them (<$1?). It seems to me its more expensive to make dvd blank media.

Does intel do all their stuff in the US or do they do the manufacturing in Taipei, Mexico, Costa Rica, Malyasia or Singapore?

I think the majority of their manufacturing is in Malaysia.

The Meal wrote:

Carpet_pissr wrote:Who knows what the x factor will be when these things REALLY go mainstream, and every Dell desktop you buy except the very bottom line budget model will have an SSD in it (at least as boot drive), and all the players are in the market with their techs.

Based on your research, when do you expect that day to hit?

From what I hear behind closed doors, what you describe is >5 years away.

OK, I actually paid for this information I was so curious. Not sure if I should give the source or not. This is a tiny fraction of the "service", so I think the author would be ok with it. Ok, screw it. It's from McWilliams' NEXT service. Maybe I will throw some biz his way.


"The key ingredient to the upside hard disk drive companies have enjoyed this year is that we saw a very significant increase in the pricing of NAND Flash memory. This is the memory used to manufacture solid state drives (SSD) that replace hard disk drives. SSD's are faster and consume significantly less power than hard disk drives, and therefore, other than their higher cost, are an ideal solution for portable computing and the many low-latency applications present in data centers. However, rising NAND Flash prices limited the adoption of SSD technology.

While higher NAND Flash prices slowed the penetration of SSD's during 2009, as this year progresses and Moore's Law works its magic to produce lower cost NAND Flash devices, SSD's will begin to expand market share in both the portable PC and enterprise markets. It appears that STX is positioned to participate in the SSD market, but the question is how well it will do at replacing lost hard disk drive revenue and profits with its new SSD products. However, over the long term, my thinking is this transition will work against the company.

While it takes enormous capital investment to play in the hard disk drive market and to produce NAND Flash devices, it takes minimal relative investment to design a NAND Flash controller and package it with NAND Flash chips to produce a SSD. Due to this, I expect profit margins for SSDs will eventually be low. Don't confuse this with the profit margin for NAND Flash chips - the margin for the Flash chips will by super-cyclical just as it always has been."


Bolding/emphasis is mine.

So looks like the best way to invest in the coming SSD boom is to go for the NAND flash chip makers: Hynix, Micron, Numonyx, SST and STM

Bottom line: Lawbeef was right to go down...not up.

I put twin SSD drives in a RAID 0 configuration in my new laptop. Very fast boot up.

Carpet_pissr wrote:So looks like the best way to invest in the coming SSD boom is to go for the NAND flash chip makers: Hynix, Micron, Numonyx, SST and STM

Bottom line: Lawbeef was right to go down...not up.

Interesting stuff! Thanks for sharing with me. It'd be a switch for the storage industry for the suppliers to be where the action is rather than the manufacturers, but what is said about SSDs basically being slapped together and the innovation being in the controllers makes sense to me. But it's still going to be the case that rotating magnetic media is going to be cheaper by a long shot for a few more years, and if nothing else can be learned from the iPad announcement... cost is the key factor for the majority of the market.

That said, SSDs will be taking larger and larger chunks of share for each of the next 10 years. HDDs are dinosaurs and the asteroid is incoming, but hasn't quite hit, yet.

The Meal wrote: But it's still going to be the case that rotating magnetic media is going to be cheaper by a long shot for a few more years, and if nothing else can be learned from the iPad announcement... cost is the key factor for the majority of the market.

That said, SSDs will be taking larger and larger chunks of share for each of the next 10 years. HDDs are dinosaurs and the asteroid is incoming, but hasn't quite hit, yet.

Yes, and that was implied in the rest of the analysis (that I didn't paste)...that due to CURRENT SSD costs, it's too expensive compared to HDDs, but almost as important, if not more, since price shouldn't be as much of an issue going forward thanks to Moore's Law, the reliability of at least the current gen drives is still very much in question, and he doesn't see a lot of corporations implementing SSD wholescale until that particular issue is better addressed.

Ironically, just last week, even our small town, micro business bought a couple of industrial level SSD's "to try them out" and see how much faster we can run some of our big data runs. I think they paid around $10k for just one drive. If our tiny business is laying out $20K just to try the new tech (and to see in actuality how much productivity/time can be saved), then I wonder how many other IT depts with much bigger budgets will be buying a few (relatively) to "try out".

I love this shit.

EDIT: "buying" (in CAPS) MU and STM based on my research so far. We'll see what happens over the next year.

"Sprint Says It Will Launch First WiMax Phone In the Summer"

I'm thinking now might be a great time to buy some Sprint stock.

Risky? hells yes. But I feel it in my bones...there is a double in the near future here.

http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/2010 ... hoo_ticker" target="_blank

I had Virgin Mobile when they got bought by Sprint and Centennial when they got bought by ATT. I'm not going to press my luck. Maybe with options. Jan $2.50 calls are around $1.30.

I've heard that when the iPad comes out it will further stress the ATT network.



Unrelated, seen Sirius lately? Wish I had those $0.05 shares that I sold for $0.12...

I pretty much had forgotten about Sirius. Aren't they dead?

Carpet_pissr wrote:I pretty much had forgotten about Sirius. Aren't they dead?

Not if you believe their guidance.