[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

[triggercut]

very interesting analysis there triggercut. nice little dissection.

couple of questions -
why is silky not part of the equation in terms of your guilty parties?

am curious to see more on your rationale also on zurai also? maybe i missed something here on him.

Very interesting perspective there. will definitely have to reread the thread now, and see if i can get more from it.

Silky's on my list of the 6 who voted for Lassr. If Lassr was innocent, (and I think he might've been), then those 6 look very, very interesting to me.

Oh, and Zurai, you're right. You pulled a vote from Silky at the last minute, not Austin. My bad.

I think I'm getting a pretty clear picture of some things now. My "highly suspicious list" has four names on it. Three of those names are in the 6 people who voted to lynch Lassr.

[triggercut]

BTW, more reasoning regarding Lassr:

1. He pretty willingly went to his fate. I think he was what he stated: an unpowered villager. If he were our seer, coroner, or priest, he'd have stated as much, right? Even though the info would've led to his death by wolf at night. He'd have still fought to keep his neck from being stretched.

2. I think his resignation to his fate also betrayed that he wasn't a wolf. A wolf would've fought a little harder I think. Ok, some of you have icewater in your veins, and as a wolf, you could run a "resigned to my fate" bluff. I don't think that's in Lassr's otherwise considerable game.

We are gonna have some fun with this today! Yessirree bob.

BTW, I think tru1cy was lynched for two reasons. One was, he sorted maybe gave off the vibe of being a special. I hope he wasn't, but reading his posts, he seemed like a special trying to hide in plain sight.

Could be a more metagame reason for his lynch though too. More after the jump (Edit, spelling.)

[tru1cy]

[Austin]

I still think Lassr will turn up wolfy. I am sure he is not powered; no way he would have left for the day without coming out or leaving a strong BACK OFF hint. As a wolf he very well could have decided to wait and see while he was gone. We had been stuck at 4:4 for a long time and there weren't any signs of that changing in the afternoon. But it did, and I think we got one. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the last 2 votes came from a wolf also. "I'm going down, get on the vote for me!" Were I a wolf I'll tell you exactly how I would have played it. I would have cast the 5th vote on myself - especially this game with 2 other wolves playing.

The tru1cy thing I'm not so sure on. He didn't strike me as special. He kind of struck me as, well tru1cy. His and pr0ner's votes for me I just expect. It would be an incredibly stupid play by the wolves to waste a vote trying to frame someone rather than trying to kill the seer/coroner/priest though so I've got nothing.

I have pages of Triggalysis to wade through. I still lean toward pr0ner being innocent and I'm not ready to jump all over Remus yet. I think it's very likely, assuming Lassr innocent, that there was 1 wolf on Lassr, 1 on me and one on neither. It's a good safe play. If Lassr was a wolf, I'd say 1 on Lassr (one of the last 2) and 1 on me, which would have been Lassr and 1 on neither. That said, people make moves I don't understand all the time - explains different play styles to Unagi.

I think we're in good shape. At this point I think the seer comes out with 1 wolf. It would also be handy to have a special around who can first be confirmed, and then confirm the seer via PM's if required.

[Silky]

Well since everyone is casting there suspicion list I will do the same. I as well will assume Lassr is innocent.

The wolves had a choice of who to lynch between Austin and Lassr. I don't know if they chose Lassr or not but it appears obvious they did not choose Austin. I was also semi afraid that I would be slayed overnight with some rumors of my specialness floating around. I realized that would have been a wasted move on their part since I certainly appear to be an easy candidate to lynch.

I do not like how Zurai played the vote withdraw. Yes he set it up and did exactly what he said he would do. This is why I don't like it. It gives him an out to innocently cast the execution vote on someone who would probably show up as innocent if the coroner remains. I have done the exact same thing the one time I played as a baddy. Set up what you are going to do and then when it happens you avoid suspicion.

I have a few more suspects than that but I don't want to put my neck so far in the noose that I can never get it out again. I would prefer to be slain overnight then lynched but sometimes that how the ball bounces.

I of course know something that only three other people know (unless I have been scanned or priest ID'ed) . And that is that I am not a wolf. It seems like some wolfy candidates enjoy saying how suspicious I am and setting me up for the noose. If they say it enough and get villagers to believe it then it must be true.

[Austin]

I as well will assume Lassr is innocent.

I of course know something that only three other people know (unless I have been scanned or priest ID'ed) . And that is that I am not a wolf.

Why? I think we got one.

Your reaffirmation shows a lot of confidence in Lassr's innocence.

Edit: Can't type this morning

[Remus West]

The "thats not good" comment was to see who would be the first to bring up the possibility of tru1cy being special. I reread all his posts and did not see anything to indicate that he was but plan on looking again just in case.

1. Austin -
2. pr0ner -
3. Lassr - lynched
4. Zurai -
5. tru1cy - eaten
6. Remus West -
7. Grundbegriff - eaten
8. Mr Bubbles -
9. Unagi -
10. triggercut -
11. Newcastle -
12. Silky -

9 living.

3 wolves = 2 misses left
2 wolves = 3 misses left

So, since we do not absolutely have to have a hit today, our specials should likely stay hidden lacking concrete information to shift the balance. If they have information that would either 1) keep their block intact or 2) break open a few wolf heads then they should seriously think about coming forward.

Priest - 1 + 2 confessions - possible block 0-3 (the zero is because if he can not prove himself with a live confession then he doesn't get counted)

Seer - 2 scans - can not prove himself so gets only tenative trust - possible block again 0-3

Coroner knows Lassr's identity.

Wolves know Grund's identity and tru1cy's identity.

Now, I think Lassr was a wolf but I also think it foolish to proceed as though that were fact. Right now I have 2 main suspects for wolves. Time will tell to see what they do in the next little bit.

Interesting comment by Bubbles though:

Of course he knows his heads on the block.

Why would my head be on the block? This I do not understand at all.

edit: Stupid tags.

[Silky]

I as well will assume Lassr is innocent.

I of course know something that only three other people know (unless I have been scanned or priest ID'ed) . And that is that I am not a wolf.

Why? I think we got one.

Your reaffirmation shows a lot of confidence in Lassr's innocence.

Edit: Can't type this morning

You got one what Austin?

1. A wolf who knows who is innocent or not
2. A special who knows the status of Lassr either as a priest or coroner
3. A normal villager who reasons it is not likely for a wolf to be lynched on the first day.

Triggercut said the same sort of things (i.e believes Lassr) innocent but I saw no mention of a we got one post. Are you the one the wolf pack chose to get the village all riled up at me today? Or am I reading your response wrong and you think that "we got one" = Lassr is a wolf?

[Austin]

Clarification for silky.

"I think we got one" = Lassr. I was contrasting to your assumption that Lassr is innocent.

[Silky]

Please forgive my outburst Austin. I am a little on edge.

[triggercut]

Interesting. I guess I can come around to the remote possibility that Lassr *maybe* was a wolf.

If so, though, then the other two wolves have to--have to--be pr0ner and Zurai. There's no other way to have played it or to look at it. Zurai, pr0ner, and I were the only ones with non-Lassr votes who are still alive, and as stated before, because of the unique circumstances by which Lassr died (away for the day), if he was a wolf, we must assume that none of the six who voted for him are also wolves.

Zurai and pr0ner. Whom do we noose up first?

[Austin]

Interesting. I guess I can come around to the remote possibility that Lassr *maybe* was a wolf.

If so, though, then the other two wolves have to--have to--be pr0ner and Zurai. There's no other way to have played it or to look at it. Zurai, pr0ner, and I were the only ones with non-Lassr votes who are still alive, and as stated before, because of the unique circumstances by which Lassr died (away for the day), if he was a wolf, we must assume that none of the six who voted for him are also wolves.

Zurai and pr0ner. Whom do we noose up first?

Or uh... Triggercut?

Edit: If I had to choose from the three of you it'd be Zurai, Triggercut, Pr0ner. In that order. But I think our pool is larger than that.

[triggercut]

You think a wolf had an active vote sitting on Lassr with the knowledge that he was close to 6 votes and knowing that the potential wolf/lynchee was going to be away all day and unable to verbally fight for his life?

[triggercut]

Anyway, I'm Ok with the start of your order.

Lynch Zurai.

[Austin]

You think a wolf had an active vote sitting on Lassr with the knowledge that he was close to 6 votes and knowing that the potential wolf/lynchee was going to be away all day and unable to verbally fight for his life?

Sorry, speak slower, I'm not following.

[triggercut]

Ok, really quickly, withdraw Zurai.

The village is in really good shape indeed. Reading the thread, I think I know why tru1cy bought the farm, and I think I know who two of the wolves were, with an 80% suspicion on the third.

Village, I think we have this sucker won.

[Austin]

Ok, really quickly, withdraw Zurai.

The village is in really good shape indeed. Reading the thread, I think I know why tru1cy bought the farm, and I think I know who two of the wolves were, with an 80% suspicion on the third.

Village, I think we have this sucker won.

[triggercut]

You think a wolf had an active vote sitting on Lassr with the knowledge that he was close to 6 votes and knowing that the potential wolf/lynchee was going to be away all day and unable to verbally fight for his life?

Sorry, speak slower, I'm not following.

If Lassr was indeed a wolf, do you think that a teammate of his would've kept an active vote to lynch him up? With the score deadlocked at 4-4 (which it only really was for a little under a day btw, from what I can tell; Silky's vote pulled from me made it 4-4. Then Bubbles made it 5-4, and Unagi made it 6-4.) Lassr was saying from the day before (in defending Bubbles's absence) that real life would take him away the following day. Then the next day--the day he was lynched--he said he was leaving until the evening.

He left with 4 active votes. Do you think any of those were a wolf teammate? I cannot even fathom it. No way in hell. If I were a wolf teammate of Lassr's and I had a vote on him at that point, I say "well, I'd hate to lynch Lassr without him being around to defend himself, so I'm pulling my vote for now just to make it fair to him before we string him up!" Easily done without drawing suspicion.

But it didn't happen. Instead, we got the two votes we needed to lynch Lassr. How in hell could either of those votes be from wolves, sending a teammate out of the game????? How does that strategy make any sense? If Lassr's a wolf, there's no way in hell that Bubbles or Unagi is. Given the circumstances though, there's no way that if Lassr is a wolf that Austin, Remus, Newcastle, or Silky is either.

I'll say it again. There were 4 people with non-Lassr votes. If Lassr was a wolf, the other two wolves were in that group. One of that group was tru1cy. He's dead. So, the wolf is in the group of me, pr0ner, and Zurai.

I'm innocent.

That makes Zurai and pr0ner the two remaining wolves IF (and only IF) you believe that Lassr was indeed a wolf.

[Austin]

I sort of follow but I disagree with regard to Unagi. If I assume Lassr is a wolf and is at 5 votes with no other wolves on him, letting Unagi put him over is a good move. I would have given full support to such a play for this exact reason. There are 3 wolves. Sacrificing 1 wolf to get village confidence is not a bad move. I do agree that an early Lassr vote would have gotten off Lassr earlier but there is a chance that they were on and didn't want to look wolfy by leaving the vote. Still I expected another day of stalemate before one of us went over. I didn't see Unagi's switch coming at all.

-more after lunch-

[triggercut]

I think there's a reason tru1cy died. I think it might be in one of his posts.

[triggercut]

I find it hard to believe that 3 wolves have started a railroad against Austin. I know I am innocent, so that would mean Unagi, Pr0ner and Lassr are wolves. The Wolves would rather get the game moving as the more time we discuss this the more of a chance one of them will make a mistake.


I'm really thinking that Austin is now a wolf. If he wasn;t the wolves would have jumped on this vote awhile ago to get the game moving

Heh. I've strung this out long enough. I knew all this yesterday, but wanted to see if I could get anyone to step into a trap of me whistling dixie. It didn't happen, and I didn't expect it it to, but it was worth a shot.

Anyway, read the above post by tru1cy. It's from page 6 of this thread. At the time, the vote count was:

Austin 4 (tru1cy, pr0ner, Lassr, Unagi)
Lassr 2 (Austin, Remus)
Silky 2 (triggercut, Zurai)
triggercut 1 (Silky)
Remus 1 (Newcastle)
(No vote registered at that point for Bubbles).

Now read that post from tru1cy again.

He makes an excellent point.

At that point in the game, if Austin was an innocent villager, railroading him to the noose would've been very, very easy. Of the four votes on him:

1. tru1cy was an innocent
2. Lassr, I'm 90% sure was an innocent
3. Unagi, who I'm 85% sure is an innocent.
4. pr0ner who I'm 80% sure is an innocent.

That's four villagers voting for Austin, I think. If the wolves wanted to send a villager out, it wouldn't have been too tough for 2 of them to get on board and vote a villager to the gallows.

As tru1cy noted, though, that didn't happen. Instead, Austin sat and sat and sat with 4 votes on him for nearly 2 full days.

The inescapable conclusion to me is that tru1cy is correct. Austin is very likely to be a werewolf.

With that in mind, re-read the thread, especially from page 4 or 5 to the present. The identities of the other two wolves kind of leap right out of the pixels at you.

[triggercut]

BTW, if the Coroner is still alive and if he scanned Lassr (and he should have), he can speak up if he wants and confirm Lassr's status.

If I'm right that Lassr was innocent, then Austin *has to be a werewolf*.

[Zurai]

Trig, I think you'er waaaaaaaaay too sure of your assertion that no wolves voted for Lassr. If there's anything to be learned from playing these games, it's that there is absolutely no such thing as a sure bet.

Ok. lets take the assumption that Lassr was a werewolf, and shoot it down. Let's say you're on the werewolf team, and you see your teammate Lassr on the verge of hanging. He then announces that he's out for the day. Given that information,

1. It would start off as being extremely unlikely that a werewolf would have an active vote sitting on Lassr, but even if that were the case...

2. When Lassr announced he was leaving, surely any wolf with an active vote on their buddy would've pulled it.

Why would they have pulled it? If they'd determined that Lassr was to be the sacrificial lamb as it were, then not only would they not have pulled their vote, they'd have been actively campaigning to get him lynched BEFORE he could have time to come back to "defend" himself.

He left with 4 active votes. Do you think any of those were a wolf teammate? I cannot even fathom it. No way in hell. If I were a wolf teammate of Lassr's and I had a vote on him at that point, I say "well, I'd hate to lynch Lassr without him being around to defend himself, so I'm pulling my vote for now just to make it fair to him before we string him up!" Easily done without drawing suspicion.

And that would send major red flags up for me, because the day was already dragging on and on and on, and someone withdrawing a vote on one of the leading contenders for the noose AFTER said person had already had a day+ to defend themselves would ring completely and utterly false.

Lassr *maybe* was a wolf.

If so, though, then the other two wolves have to--have to--be pr0ner and Zurai.

because of the unique circumstances by which Lassr died (away for the day), if he was a wolf, we must assume that none of the six who voted for him are also wolves

Thus, I reject these assertions.



That said, I also believe Lassr was innocent. I was saying it all throughout day 1. You're very quickly moving up my suspicio-meter, though, with your absolute insistence that no wolf could possibly have voted for Lassr.

[triggercut]

Zurai, I figured you'd reject my scenario.

Before I posted it, I was 80% sure you were the second werewolf. Now I'm 95% sure.

Austin and Zurai are both werewolves. The third one is the one that's really easy to spot.

(I was hoping to either get Austin to vote for Zurai and then yankback earlier in this thread, but it didn't happen. Austin's too good to do that. I also note with amused interest that he ranked his suspects--based on my posts last night--as "Zurai, triggercut, and pr0ner". Very clever, putting your packmate in there first....but not voting for him, and then attempting to shoot that down while you and Zurai and the third wolf debated either on a secret forum or via PM whether you three would have to give up Zurai or not. Very clever.)

Anyway, those are two of our badboys.

I'm 80% certain on the third, but there's a nagging suspect out there who could also possibly have that role, though I doubt it.

Love to see some sort of confirmation from any living specials.

(EDIT: added closed parenthesis)

[triggercut]

BTW, when tru1cy posted his note that he felt that the lack of a railroad on Austin proved Austin's wolfiness, Austin's response and sole defense was to quote tru1cy and then add:

"/boggle"

Ho-kay.

[Zurai]

So because I disagree with your "I say they're ironclad but they aren't really ironclad" arguments, I'm now 15% more likely to be a wolf?

So anyone who disagrees with you is a wolf. Gotcha.

I can't decide whether you're a wolf trying to throw as much shit into the fan as possible, or just an incredibly misguided villager blinded by your own certainty.



EDIT: The rolleyes smiley got replaced with "I'm with stupid"? Who knew.

[Grundbegriff]

EDIT: The rolleyes smiley got replaced with "I'm with stupid"? Who knew.

Everyone but you

[triggercut]

BTW, let's squelch the whole "The wolves decided that Lassr would be a sacrificial lamb" meme of Zurai's before poor Austin has to come along and try to prop that thing up.

Lassr had 2 votes against, vs. 4 against for Austin. Silky also had 2 votes against.

Why would the wolves decide, based on that, that their teammate--who, if we're to believe Zurai, was Lassr--needed to be sacrificed?!? Doesn't make a lick of sense.

No, I think the Wolves jumped on the train they figured they could get moving the quickest. Take a good hard look at votes 3, 4, and 5 against Lassr. I think very strongly that one of them is our third wolf.

[triggercut]

So because I disagree with your "I say they're ironclad but they aren't really ironclad" arguments, I'm now 15% more likely to be a wolf?

So anyone who disagrees with you is a wolf. Gotcha.

I can't decide whether you're a wolf trying to throw as much shit into the fan as possible, or just an incredibly misguided villager blinded by your own certainty.



EDIT: The rolleyes smiley got replaced with "I'm with stupid"? Who knew.

Nope. If Unagi disagrees with me, I think he's just misguided.

[Zurai]

wolves decide, based on that, that their teammate--who, if we're to believe Zurai, was Lassr

Please don't lie to make your case.

[triggercut]

wolves decide, based on that, that their teammate--who, if we're to believe Zurai, was Lassr

Please don't lie to make your case.

Sorry, I was referring to this statement in the above sentence you quoted:

Why would they have pulled it? If they'd determined that Lassr was to be the sacrificial lamb as it were, then not only would they not have pulled their vote, they'd have been actively campaigning to get him lynched BEFORE he could have time to come back to "defend" himself.

To me, acceptance of that postulation assumes that Lassr was a werewolf whether it was a hypothetical scenario or not. I should have more accurately worded it: "who, if we're to put some credence behind Zurai's hypothetical situation, was, hypothetically, Lassr"

Not that it matters, wolfy.

[Zurai]

Sorry, I was referring to this statement in the above sentence you quoted:

Why would they have pulled it? If they'd determined that Lassr was to be the sacrificial lamb as it were, then not only would they not have pulled their vote, they'd have been actively campaigning to get him lynched BEFORE he could have time to come back to "defend" himself.

To me, acceptance of that postulation assumes that Lassr was a werewolf whether it was a hypothetical scenario or not.

So now, simply because I propose that you might be wrong - that there's at least one scenario where wolves might have voted for Lassr-as-a-wolf - I absolutely am saying that Lassr was a wolf, despite the fact that I have said 5 or 6 times now, straight up, that I do not think Lassr was a wolf? Seriously, where do you make this shit up?

Once more: I do not think Lassr was a wolf. That being said, I still do not think it automagically follows that no wolves voted for Lassr if he WAS a wolf.

I can reject your assertion without disagreeing with your belief that Lassr was innocent.

And, honestly, if I really was a wolf, why would I bother trying to wade through your quagmiric logic here, when you said in your initial post that whether or not Lassr was a wolf you still think I'm a wolf? There's no gain there - I'd be better off being quiet and letting my teammate(s) try to draw attention off me. Unfortunately, I have no team to do so.

I am not a wolf. You're making a mistake if you keep leading this fanatical charge against me.

[Austin]

Heh. Interesting theory but wrong; at least on my account. I have no reason to believe you are innocent and that kills a good chunk of your theory. The second issue I have is how you just explain everything I do away as, 'well yeah he's acting innocent but he's a smart wolf' or 'okay he didn't do what a bad guy would do but he's too smart to fall for that'. How am I supposed to respond to that? You were pretty quick out of the gate with accusations, putting up a vote before a number of people even had a chance to check in. You are barking up the wrong tree with me and this is why putting too much emphasis on voting can easily steer you wrong. Of course this might be what you intend anyway.

[Remus West]

BTW, let's squelch the whole "The wolves decided that Lassr would be a sacrificial lamb" meme of Zurai's before poor Austin has to come along and try to prop that thing up.

Lassr had 2 votes against, vs. 4 against for Austin. Silky also had 2 votes against.

Why would the wolves decide, based on that, that their teammate--who, if we're to believe Zurai, was Lassr--needed to be sacrificed?!? Doesn't make a lick of sense.

No, I think the Wolves jumped on the train they figured they could get moving the quickest. Take a good hard look at votes 3, 4, and 5 against Lassr. I think very strongly that one of them is our third wolf.

While you look at the votes and decide that Austin was not being railroaded because he is a werewolf try and consider the possibility that Austin was not taken over the edge because the wolves ALREADY WERE voting for him? How do you push someone over if you have already used all your votes?

Triggercut, I appreciate what you are trying to do, but I do not agree with the logic behind it. First off, I think Lassr was likely a wolf. But lets look at the possibility that he is not and Austin is.

Austin is sitting on the edge of going down and there is an innocent tied into him. Yet you would have us believe that neither Bubbles nor Unagi are wolves in that senario? The ones who cast the votes that threw Lassr over the edge saving their compatriot? I'm willing to give you that both are not likely to be, but I am unwilling to say that neither of them are.

My biggest problem with your argument Triggercut is that you are taking one faulty premise and trying to stretch it into a binding case versus three people. Lassr as innocent is not the only possible senario from yesterday. Lassr/Austin wolf/wolf ; Lassr/Austin innocent/innocent ; Lassr/Austin wolf/innocent ; Lassr/Austin innocent/wolf. All are possibilities.

[triggercut]

Austin is sitting on the edge of going down and there is an innocent tied into him. Yet you would have us believe that neither Bubbles nor Unagi are wolves in that senario? The ones who cast the votes that threw Lassr over the edge saving their compatriot? I'm willing to give you that both are not likely to be, but I am unwilling to say that neither of them are.

Ah, Unagi. Let's talk about him for a minute.

Unagi cast vote #4 for Austin, before casting vote #6 for Lassr. For that reason, I believe that if Lassr or Austin were wolves, Unagi is NOT a wolf.

No way Unagi casts vote 4 for Austin if they're teammates. No way he casts vote 6 on Lassr if those two are teammates.

Furthermore, Unagi didn't vote for Lassr to protect a packmate. As noted, he was sitting at Vote 4 for Austin.

I will grant you this: there's a small possibility that Unagi and pr0ner are werewolves, which then makes Remus, Newcastle, Bubbles, and Zurai the third. I find the probability of that to be rather small.

[triggercut]

While you look at the votes and decide that Austin was not being railroaded because he is a werewolf try and consider the possibility that Austin was not taken over the edge because the wolves ALREADY WERE voting for him? How do you push someone over if you have already used all your votes?

Ah, but they didn't use all their votes. As noted previously, votes against Austin:

1. tru1cy (Innocent, proved by virtue of his death)
2. pr0ner (a question mark, though I lean innocent at this time)
3. Lassr (Innocent, proved by virtue of the fact that if he was guilty, our wolves are pretty clearly Zurai and pr0ner; if that's the case, killing tru1cy last night was a majestic blunder of epic proportions)
4. Unagi (Absolutely innocent if Austin or Lassr or both are wolves)

To me, that's two wolf votes, not three. A third wolf vote would've put poor, poor, innocent Austin at five votes to Lassr and Silky's probable 2 votes each. At that point, the noose all but calls Austin's name to him. That fifth vote from the 3rd werewolf never happened. Austin twisted in the wind, so to speak, with 4 votes against him nearly all weekend. That fifth vote should've hit at some point. It didn't.

[Austin]

Once more, were I a wolf I would have put the 5th vote on myself and forced a couple people to back off me. I guarantee it would have worked. The reason I didn't do it as an innocent as it would have allowed a single wolf to put me in the noose. It isn't so easy to play when you don't know who are the guilty or innocent Triggercut.

[Remus West]

1. granted
2. also granted but tenative
3. Not granted in the slightest.
4. Granted only in the case of Both being wolves, otherwise Not Granted.

[triggercut]

One mild correction to my post.

Unagi was vote #3 on Austin, not vote 4.

Doesn't matter, because just as Vote 4 was registered on Austin (by Lassr), both Lassr and Austin withdrew active votes from Unagi. If Unagi wanted to get off his active vote of his packmate Austin, he could have right there--Austin pulls his vote from Unagi, so Unagi could've made an easily justifiable case that he was withdrawing his vote from Austin.

Didn't happen. Unagi either let his packmate Austin spin until just before Lassr's lynch, or Unagi is innocent and Austin is a Wolf, or Austin is innocent and Unagi is a wolf playing the game rather poorly.

I don't think the third scenario there comes into play. If Unagi was a wolf, surely he'd have two teammates *begging* him not to be the one who cast the deciding vote on Lassr, especially when Lassr was sitting there at 5 votes.

[Remus West]

You underestimate the willingness of bad guys to sacrifice each other I think.