[WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Conclusion

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:07 pm

As long as either Q or RW are Saruman, I agree, our biggest concern next is Gollum. Theodalf has been doing a great job so far, maybe he can get lucky again.

We know that

bb and Tru1cy are either hobbit/gollum.

Grund claims to be hobbit but could be hobbit/gollum or Borimir - other possibilities exist, but are not likely. Nobody counterclaimed, so most likely is a hobbit???

If the ring gets passed it will most likely be to one of them. If the ring is passed, wouldn't Frodo know who he passed the ring too? If the ring reads in possession of Gollum, then we have to come to one of 2 conclusions, either the person (who Mr. Bubbles knows) that received the ring is Gollum, or that Gollum guessed right and stole it.

By logic, we would have to scout the individual that Frodo points to as the person he handed the ring off to. Not a huge loss in itself since that hobbit would have already used his one chance at carrying the ring. If it is Gollum we scout, then the ring gets passed again. Gollum is killed, and we are guessing who has the ring, and who is evil. We may get lucky and Gollum would take pity and pass it on to another hobbit, but not something you can count on. Worst case scenario is he passes it on to a free person, turning them evil. Then as we go to lynch each successive evil guy (if we are lucky enough to find out who it is) the ring just keeps getting passed and free people keep getting corrupted.

If Gollum guesses correctly and steals the ring, see above scenario, even if we figure out who Gollum is after he receives the ring.

Based on this thought process, Gollum should be the number one priority. If Gollum gets the ring and we are lucky enough to figure out who Gollum is and scout him, we would have to depend on him to give the ring back to a hobbit. Evil would have to depend on him not giving the ring to a hobbit and give it to a free person to turn them evil. Gollum probably wouldn't care too much either way if he was going to the gallows.

On the flip side, if Gollum uses his one-time ability and misses we are only playing hot potato with one evil.

I keep coming back to the same conclusion. Scout RW and leave the ring with Q (assuming Q is Saruman) for one more turn and have Theodalf try to find Gollum. Aragorn protects Theo so we at least get one more scan (or at least is playing protection chicken). Long shot for Theodalf to find Gollum, but it seems the best strategy for at least this upcoming turn.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:45 pm

triggercut wrote:Basically, if we decide to let Saruman safe-keep Frodo for a Chapter, I think we are taking a calculated gamble that we've already identified Saruman

66% chance that we have, to be precise. There are three who would scan as Servants at this juncture, and theohall nabbed two of them.

or that Gandalf will successfully scan him and be able share that knowledge before the forces of Shadow catch up to him.

Assuming theohall is specifically seeking the third Servant, he'd search among {coopasonic, Newcastle, pr0ner, rhsetts2, RMC, triggercut}, so that would be a 1/6 chance of finding the Evildoer. That's about 17%.

Not saying that it isn't a high-percentage gamble to take....but I think we need to assess which play is riskier.

There are the numbers. Satisfied?

BTW, all-- we should probably discuss what a Boromir would likely be doing right about now. He wins with Evil, so knowing what sort of antics to look for might be a good idea in case things get dicey.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:46 pm

The really funny thing is going to be what you people do when you finally realize that theohall is lying.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:47 pm

rshetts2 wrote:Frankly I can see no good reason for the Servants not to hunt last night, so it is likely they were blocked. Even though the odds are not great it was Gandalf they targeted, it is possible. They may well kill him tonite in that case and we will have no scans left. Just figured we should be aware of the possibility that we have seen our last scan. Of course evil may not care about Gandalf scanning at this point because its just as likely that he finds Gollum, who is just as worrisome to them as he is to us. They may let him scan and take the risk, hoping he does find Gollum.

Good thoughts.

Interesting rule set here LL, theres even room for evil and good to work together to remove Gollum as a threat.

+1

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:48 pm

Newcastle wrote:Then remus has been seriously off today; i'd expect him to do more squirming and finger pointing as well...so thats strange as heck....

That's another wrinkle of this ruleset. Once you're outed, there's just not a lot of possible counterplay. He probably feels silly going through the motions, though he put in an appearance for the sake of form.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:49 pm

Newcastle wrote:As to wether we free saruman or not....

I'd prefer not to free Saruman, ifthat'sokwithyou.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:00 pm

bb2112 wrote:Grund claims to be hobbit but could be hobbit/gollum or Borimir - other possibilities exist, but are not likely. Nobody counterclaimed, so most likely is a hobbit???

Yes, I'm a hobbit.

By logic, we would have to scout the individual that Frodo points to as the person he handed the ring off to. Not a huge loss in itself since that hobbit would have already used his one chance at carrying the ring. If it is Gollum we scout.... Based on this thought process, Gollum should be the number one priority. If Gollum gets the ring and we are lucky enough to figure out who Gollum is and scout him....

In general, this is probably wise. But let's not forget that throwing the ring to Gollum on the final day, and only on the final day is also a path to victory. I think this is largely moot, since the same is also true of any hobbit who has previously borne the ring. He may bear it again safely on the final day.

The scenario in which it becomes relevant is one in which all hobbits to whom the Ring might be thrown are held captive because of a dearth of Free People.

Last night's apparent protection makes this scenario even less likely than it already is, so on balance it's probably better to kill Gollum than to keep him around for the sake of an edge case.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:18 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:As to wether we free saruman or not....
I'd prefer not to free Saruman, ifthat'sokwithyou.

/sniffles
/wanders off realizing grund will never read what he says or the important points he brings forward

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:21 pm

Ok as far as the little folk go, including Gollum we have a total of 5. We have the 3 regular hobbit positions somewhat claimed by BB, Tru1cy and Grund. Its pretty clear Bubbles is Frodo.
So far we havent had Grunds hobbit claim refuted and no other hobbit has come out. So either all Hobbits have been revealed and Gollum is neither BB, Tru1cy or Grund, or Gollum is hiding in our knowns and a hobbit is still un-revealed.
Since I see no good reason for the remaining hobbit to stay hidden and very valid reasons for him to come forward ( namely to give Frodo another option ) unless we see a hobbit come forth, we have to assume the odds are Gollum is still in hiding. Thats both good and bad for us as its gives Frodo the maximum ring toss targets but leaves Gollum lurking to try his steal.
Anyway, unless someone can enlighten me as to a solid reason for a hobbit to not reveal at this time, I have to figure Grunds claim is valid, in spite of the weirdness of his previous posts.
With that in mind I have the following role matrix.

1. Grundbegriff - Hobbit/Gollum
2. redrun - Free Person
3. theohall - Gandalf
4. Qantaga - Servant
5. bb2112 - Hobbit/ Gollum
6. rshetts2 - Free Person
7. Remus West - Servant
8. RMC - leaning good
9. tru1cy - Hobbit/ Gollum
10. triggercut - suspicious posts, possible servant
11. Mr Bubbles - Likely Frodo
12. coopasonic - No idea
13. pr0ner - suspicious lack of posts
14. Newcastle - No idea

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:44 pm

I have to wonder how much they are laughing at you all in the bad guy forum. That's going to be a fun read when you finally get around to lynching me. I really want to know what prompted this move and how they are reacting. Hilarious stuff I'd bet. Also be nice for me when theohall is revealed to have lied about me to sit back and post ghosts sticking their tongues out at all of you.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:54 pm

You don't seem to know that you're Evil. Maybe you were human once-- a king, perhaps.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:59 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:You don't seem to know that you're Evil. Maybe you were human once-- a king, perhaps.

heh. I look forward to reading your reaction to their forum as well.

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:42 am

Remus West wrote:I have to wonder how much they are laughing at you all in the bad guy forum. That's going to be a fun read when you finally get around to lynching me. I really want to know what prompted this move and how they are reacting. Hilarious stuff I'd bet. Also be nice for me when theohall is revealed to have lied about me to sit back and post ghosts sticking their tongues out at all of you.

Why wonder when you can just cut and paste a few quotes for us Remus.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 6:33 am

Borrowing your list, rshetts2, because I mostly concur, although Grundbegriff's intentional gaffes bug me.

1. Grundbegriff - Hobbit/Gollum?? - potential Evil
2. redrun - Free Person/Boromir
3. theohall - Gandalf
4. Qantaga - Servant
5. bb2112 - Hobbit/ Gollum
6. rshetts2 - Free Person/Boromir?? - same deal as Grund claiming his role
7. Remus West - Servant
8. RMC - leaning good
9. tru1cy - Hobbit/ Gollum
10. triggercut - suspicious posts, possible servant
11. Mr Bubbles - Likely Frodo
12. coopasonic - No idea
13. pr0ner - suspicious lack of posts - 7 posts the entire game. Screams of someone trying to hide.
14. Newcastle - No idea[/quote]

Right now, my scan target is pr0ner, unless someone can make a very convincing case why we should continue to allow him to hide in his silence.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 7:22 am

What's our deadline? We don't want Frodo to die in prison.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 7:44 am

Lagom Lite wrote:Remus West (4) - theohall, coopasonic, rshetts2, triggercut, bb2112, Grundbegriff, tru1cy
Qantaga (2) - Grundbegriff, rshetts2, RMC, Newcastle

Majority is 7

Deadline is Friday October 21st, at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

Do we really have to wait anymore? I think our course is clear and we can make our final votes for today and see what tomorrow brings.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 7:54 am

I'll switch.

Withdraw Qantaga

Remus West must die

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:05 am

It is actually this right now, after votes from redrun and RMC:

edited Lagom Lite wrote: Remus West (5) - theohall, coopasonic, rshetts2, triggercut, bb2112, Grundbegriff, tru1cy, RMC
Qantaga (2) - Grundbegriff, rshetts2, RMC, Newcastle, redrun

Majority is 7

Deadline is Friday October 21st, at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

And we don't have to rush with a Friday deadline. Who knows? Maybe someone will slip up or pr0ner will make some kind of convincing argument not to scan him.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:06 am

I find it interesting Remus West and Qantaga aren't hurrying the vote, which would make us play "Pass the Ring" sooner, if we happened to hit Saruman. Earlier Ring passing = greater odds for the Servants. This tends to make me believe neither of them are Saruman, and they are hoping we don't find him.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:06 am

theohall wrote:I find it interesting Remus West and Qantaga aren't hurrying the vote, which would make us play "Pass the Ring" sooner, if we happened to hit Saruman. Earlier Ring passing = greater odds for the Servants. This tends to make me believe neither of them are Saruman, and they are hoping we don't find him.

Hunh, they are caught red handed. Nothing they can really say or do is going to change anything for them. That is unless one of them comes up innocent when we lynch them, but I would think that highly unlikely.

As far as waiting goes, I guess we have time. I just don't see anything materially changing in the next couple of days, just like they haven't in the last several. But hey, I am just one little voice/opinion among many.

Hey, Theodalf needs some scan targets before Friday. Somebody get out their big spoon and stir the pot!

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:06 am

I think at this point Remus and Qantaga are trying to be as silent as possible to not give something away. Perhaps theohall is right, and neither is Saruman and they're trying to protect that knowledge by posting little (Remus) or nothing at all (Qantaga). Other possibilities: they see us on a trajectory and don't want us to waver, or they're resigned to their fates.

At this point, I tend to think it's "resigned". I mean, thanks for confirming, Remus:

Remus West wrote:The really funny thing is going to be what you people do when you finally realize that theohall is lying.

"You people"? (Resists urge to make old school Jesse Jackson joke.) I assume that by segregating us into a group that is "you people" he inadvertently let us know that he's of a different faction than the Fellowship. Not that I had any doubt, mind.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:10 am

Grundbegriff wrote:What's our deadline? We don't want Frodo to die in prison.

Dude?

Captured and Imprisoned players don't "die", by any rule that I see. A ringbearer may become corrupted by the Ring...but Frodo's immune to that until Chapter 7.

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:26 am

I see no gains from delaying. Anyway not moving my vote and I'll check in sporadically

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:40 am

Remus West

If theo's count is right that's n-1. Why do I always make the n-1 vote?

Anyhow, let's get this moving.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:53 am

If no one has cast the Nth vote by 5pm ET today, I will cast it when I get home from work, unless something magically changes in the next few hours.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:03 am

Remus West (6) - theohall, coopasonic, rshetts2, triggercut, bb2112, Grundbegriff, tru1cy, RMC, coopasonic
Qantaga (2) - Grundbegriff, rshetts2, RMC, Newcastle, redrun

n-1

Majority is 7

Deadline is Friday October 21st, at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:26 am

triggercut wrote:I think at this point Remus and Qantaga are trying to be as silent as possible to not give something away. Perhaps theohall is right, and neither is Saruman and they're trying to protect that knowledge by posting little (Remus) or nothing at all (Qantaga). Other possibilities: they see us on a trajectory and don't want us to waver, or they're resigned to their fates.

At this point, I tend to think it's "resigned". I mean, thanks for confirming, Remus:

Remus West wrote:The really funny thing is going to be what you people do when you finally realize that theohall is lying.
"You people"? (Resists urge to make old school Jesse Jackson joke.) I assume that by segregating us into a group that is "you people" he inadvertently let us know that he's of a different faction than the Fellowship. Not that I had any doubt, mind.

Really? You take that as confirmation? How stupid. "You people" would be everyone who has bought into theohall's lies. I am in a seperate group from you people.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:28 am

Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:I think at this point Remus and Qantaga are trying to be as silent as possible to not give something away. Perhaps theohall is right, and neither is Saruman and they're trying to protect that knowledge by posting little (Remus) or nothing at all (Qantaga). Other possibilities: they see us on a trajectory and don't want us to waver, or they're resigned to their fates.

At this point, I tend to think it's "resigned". I mean, thanks for confirming, Remus:

Remus West wrote:The really funny thing is going to be what you people do when you finally realize that theohall is lying.
"You people"? (Resists urge to make old school Jesse Jackson joke.) I assume that by segregating us into a group that is "you people" he inadvertently let us know that he's of a different faction than the Fellowship. Not that I had any doubt, mind.
Really? You take that as confirmation? How stupid. "You people" would be everyone who has bought into theohall's lies. I am in a seperate group from you people.

So you say.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:31 am

triggercut wrote:
Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:I think at this point Remus and Qantaga are trying to be as silent as possible to not give something away. Perhaps theohall is right, and neither is Saruman and they're trying to protect that knowledge by posting little (Remus) or nothing at all (Qantaga). Other possibilities: they see us on a trajectory and don't want us to waver, or they're resigned to their fates.

At this point, I tend to think it's "resigned". I mean, thanks for confirming, Remus:

Remus West wrote:The really funny thing is going to be what you people do when you finally realize that theohall is lying.
"You people"? (Resists urge to make old school Jesse Jackson joke.) I assume that by segregating us into a group that is "you people" he inadvertently let us know that he's of a different faction than the Fellowship. Not that I had any doubt, mind.
Really? You take that as confirmation? How stupid. "You people" would be everyone who has bought into theohall's lies. I am in a seperate group from you people.
So you say.

You simply find things to confirm your preconception. If you read what I posted without prejudice it is very clear that I was refering to those who believe me Evil based on theohall's word. Your predjudice blinds you to the truth but thats alright as my death will shine a bright old light right into your eyes. Or maybe I should say "your Eye"?

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:36 am

Remus West wrote:I am in a seperate group from you people.

So you're in the group that can't spell "separate"?

Lynch the seperatist!

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:39 am

coopasonic wrote:
Remus West wrote:I am in a seperate group from you people.
So you're in the group that can't spell "separate"? Lynch the seperatist!

Yeah, because you should expect precise spelling from a guy who doesn't know when to use to or too.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:44 am

Remus West wrote:
coopasonic wrote:
Remus West wrote:I am in a seperate group from you people.
So you're in the group that can't spell "separate"? Lynch the seperatist!
Yeah, because you should expect precise spelling from a guy who doesn't know when to use to or too.

Remus so you are claiming that you are part of team good. If that is the case, and you have no role, then sucks to be you, but we get Theohall as a member of team evil. And maybe a different proven in Q.

However, this would mean that the 'real' Gandalf is letting this go on and not speaking up. I have a hard time buying that. It makes more sense that you and Q are on team evil.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:49 am

Who wants to watch Remus be quiet? I could arrange that any time, but would prefer to give pr0ner time to say something and have Mr Bubbles around - which is usually later in the day.

RW is still making me laugh with all of his posts, since his only answer is "theohall is lying. You all will see."

Yes, we will see that he knows quite a bit about that giant eye, and not in a good way.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:00 am

theohall wrote:Who wants to watch Remus be quiet? I could arrange that any time, but would prefer to give pr0ner time to say something and have Mr Bubbles around - which is usually later in the day.

RW is still making me laugh with all of his posts, since his only answer is "theohall is lying. You all will see."

Yes, we will see that he knows quite a bit about that giant eye, and not in a good way.

You keep speaking of waiting on Mr Bubbles. Yet you know Mr Bubbles is imprisoned and can not speak. Are you somehow hoping nobody will cast the final vote on me and thus expose you. Can you really be hoping that nobody will get lynched due to a Friday deadline?

Lagom, if there is no lynch majority vote and the Ringbearer has not voted (due to being captured/imprisoned/silent) what happens?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:12 am

Remus West wrote:
theohall wrote:Who wants to watch Remus be quiet? I could arrange that any time, but would prefer to give pr0ner time to say something and have Mr Bubbles around - which is usually later in the day.

RW is still making me laugh with all of his posts, since his only answer is "theohall is lying. You all will see."

Yes, we will see that he knows quite a bit about that giant eye, and not in a good way.
You keep speaking of waiting on Mr Bubbles. Yet you know Mr Bubbles is imprisoned and can not speak. Are you somehow hoping nobody will cast the final vote on me and thus expose you. Can you really be hoping that nobody will get lynched due to a Friday deadline?

Lagom, if there is no lynch majority vote and the Ringbearer has not voted (due to being captured/imprisoned/silent) what happens?

I was referring to when Mr Bubbles usually posts, so he can be around to pass the Ring. I am not referring to waiting for him to post. This was discussed previously, but apparently Sauron's Eye isn't helping you read much.

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:23 pm

Well thats enough of this, Remus is clearly trying to incite us into revealing any information we can to help the cause of evil. We, the Fellowship, are trying to get the same out of evil, but Qan is not talking and Remus is spending his final words poking us. I doubt anyone is going to slip at this point after all this back and forth. We may as well put the evil one to some use and send him scouting.

WITHDRAW Qantaga............Scoutify Remus

Hopefully this will clear up a few things and we can move on with either helping Frodo protect the ring or finding Saruman and freeing Frodo.

Beside I have to go to work soon and wanted the pleasure of pulling the trigger on that lying, evil Remus guy.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:28 pm

I look forward to the write up and the reveal that I have been telling you the truth and theohall has been lying. As I said from the start, this was my only way to prove that so this is what I wanted. Given that Qantaga is the only one who did not check into the game during this period I have to assume that he is Gandalf as otherwise theohall's lie would have already been called out - or the real Gandalf is playing for time knowing my death will reveal theohall's lie and since he doesn't have any Evils he is trying to get more scans. Either way it doesn't matter. theohall's lie shall soon see the light of day.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:30 pm

Remus West wrote:I look forward to the write up and the reveal that I have been telling you the truth and theohall has been lying. As I said from the start, this was my only way to prove that so this is what I wanted. Given that Qantaga is the only one who did not check into the game during this period I have to assume that he is Gandalf as otherwise theohall's lie would have already been called out - or the real Gandalf is playing for time knowing my death will reveal theohall's lie and since he doesn't have any Evils he is trying to get more scans. Either way it doesn't matter. theohall's lie shall soon see the light of day.

Seeing as Qantaga is busy elsewhere - even today in this very forum - we get more lies from Sauron's Servant. Q has had plenty of opportunity, been present, yet refused to post. I feel fairly certain Qantaga "checked in," particularly in your own forum, RW. He just chose, or was directed, not to post here.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:33 pm

Forgot to add, RW.

You still haven't named any Evil candidates, other than your counter accusation of me, and keep trying to clear Qantaga, as well.

Why is it you refused to offer any thing? Oh! That is right! You are a Servant of Sauron and the less you actually help the Fellowship, the better. Nothing you have posted since being outed has done anything to help the Fellowship. That alone is telling enough and helps explain why absolutely no one believes your supposed claims of innocence. At least no one who has posted anything significant.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:35 pm

Remus West wrote:I look forward to the write up and the reveal that I have been telling you the truth and theohall has been lying. As I said from the start, this was my only way to prove that so this is what I wanted. Given that Qantaga is the only one who did not check into the game during this period I have to assume that he is Gandalf as otherwise theohall's lie would have already been called out - or the real Gandalf is playing for time knowing my death will reveal theohall's lie and since he doesn't have any Evils he is trying to get more scans. Either way it doesn't matter. theohall's lie shall soon see the light of day.

And if it does, then we scout Theo and the real Gandalf gets another scan. If you come back evil, then we have a couple of provens. Not the best of circumstances, but not the worst either.

Hey Remus, go check out that glowing stuff over there. We are all going to turn our backs and talk for a few minutes.