Samurai Versus Ninja (ww) Night 2: RMC dead

[Moliere]

Am I the only one here?

Did I win??

[Holman]

[Vorret]

Yeah, I'll go with Unagi's guts on this one especially given his demise

 Moliere 
 


I'm surprised about BB though, his special claim was weird, yet possibly truthful

[Vorret]

Also, how does this work, there's 2 ninja and 2 samurai left, there's no way we can win this vote?

[Moliere]

Also, how does this work, there's 2 ninja and 2 samurai left, there's no way we can win this vote?

If either you or Holman is a ninja then ninjas win because I am a regular samurai.

[Holman]

It's possible that bb2112 was a samurai--his death didn't reveal his alignment--but I'm inclined to trust Unagi's arguments there. It's most likely that bb2112 was a ninja.

[Vorret]

It's possible that bb2112 was a samurai--his death didn't reveal his alignment--but I'm inclined to trust Unagi's arguments there. It's most likely that bb2112 was a ninja.

My bad, I thought the hag was a ninja, in fact BB had to be a ninja otherwise the game would have ended, right?

[Holman]

It's possible that bb2112 was a samurai--his death didn't reveal his alignment--but I'm inclined to trust Unagi's arguments there. It's most likely that bb2112 was a ninja.

My bad, I thought the hag was a ninja, in fact BB had to be a ninja otherwise the game would have ended, right?

If bb2112 were a samurai, today's roster would be 2 samurai and 2 ninja. The game would seem decided (because no lynch of a ninja would get through), but it wouldn't end automatically yet.

[Holman]

...to finish that thought: it wouldn't end automatically because there could still be some special samurai role that could make a difference. We've had a PI and a Hag, but we could have three, and some of the ones on the list could swing things.

[El Guapo]

Huh. Seems like the likely explanation for the game not ending is that bb2112 was a ninja, and so we are now at 3 samurai 1 ninja. I do notice that the rules don't actually spell out a winning condition for the wolves (so maybe they can't win??). I've been assuming that their victory condition is the typical [# ninjas >= # samurai] - is there usually an exemption for when there is a village special that could swing the game?

[El Guapo]

So if we are at 2-2, and the reason why the game hasn't ended is the presence of a special that could still swing things in favor of the village, it seems like there are only a couple possibilities. While specials like the Bodyguard (protector) could prevent night kills, that wouldn't stop the game from ending because we wouldn't be able to lynch a wolf. SO, any special that could save the village would have to be one with a voting or killing power, which would mean, unless I am missing something:

Mayor: Your vote counts twice when voting to lynch a player if you reveal yourself.

Witch: Kill or revive a player, once each per game.

ALTHOUGH, thinking about it some more, I don't think the mayor could save us. If we are at 2-2, the mayor could supervote. But even if we bag a wolf, if the mayor is the third special (and RMC wasn't lying about being the PI, there not being an obvious reason for him to do so), then we definitely don't have a protector, then we're at 1-1 tomorrow, which is still a wolf win.

And if the witch is around, there's no reason for them not to come forward and use their power, right? So I assume that the witch is not around.

Which leads me to think that bb was a ninja, and we are at 3-1.

[El Guapo]

Unagi's final action was to carefully lay out the case against Moliere. Since this game has been a muddle of confusion, I think I've got nothing better to go on.

I am inclined to agree. My only concern, however, is that if Unagi was wrong, then Unagi would make a great night kill choice, to induce the village to lynch Moliere.

[El Guapo]

Let me just ask, to get this out of the way: Scoop, what is the wolves / ninjas victory condition?

[Holman]

There are also roles that require being the last one standing, or even require being killed ("Tanner: You only win if you are killed"). Scoop couldn't end the game prematurely without ruining those roles' chances.

I'm in agreement with the late Unagi about Moliere, and I believe he was right about bb2112 as well.

[El Guapo]

There are also roles that require being the last one standing, or even require being killed ("Tanner: You only win if you are killed"). Scoop couldn't end the game prematurely without ruining those roles' chances.

I'm in agreement with the late Unagi about Moliere, and I believe he was right about bb2112 as well.

Of course, if one of those specials is in the game (and bb2112 was a samurai), then the village has already lost, because we have no capacity to lynch a wolf.

Similarly, if the Tanner is in the game (and again, if bb2112 was a samurai), then I would essentially know that Moliere is a Samurai, since I know that I am a samurai, and so no one could get to two votes without a vote from either myself or a ninja.

So it would be useful to know whether Scoop would call the game when villagers = wolves or not.

[Scoop20906]

Let me just ask, to get this out of the way: Scoop, what is the wolves / ninjas victory condition?

Wow. Sorry I missed that. Regular victory conditions apply.

Samurai win when all Ninjas are dead.

Ninjas win when their numbers equals the number of Samurai.

The game is not over.

[Scoop20906]

Also, some roles seem to break those victory conditions. When those roles exist then they supersede this victory conditions.

Ain't this fun??


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[El Guapo]

Also, some roles seem to break those victory conditions. When those roles exist then they supersede this victory conditions.

What does this mean? I'm not sure which roles would "break" the normal victory conditions. Like, if the Tanner is in the game, does the game still end when samurai = ninjas?

[Scoop20906]

Tanner: You only win if you are killed.

That's a great question.

In the case of the Tanner, if the victory conditions are met before the Tanner can achieve his goal then he loses and as the game is over.

I want to reiterate that these random role ww games a purposely not balanced so we have the potential for odd and wacky situations. I was hoping this would be fun for people.


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[Moliere]

It sounds like the game is still going because there is only 1 ninja and 3 samurai, right? Since I am the only one with a vote you can lynch me today leaving 2-1. Then if the ninja successfully kills someone it will be 1-1, Ninjas win. I hope there is a protection power otherwise the Ninjas are guaranteed a victory. Good luck!

[Vorret]

It doesn't make sense... El Guapo isn't voting, only me and Holman did based on Unagi's post.
So I'm guessing El G isn't a Ninja which solidifies Unagi's claim.

In any case my vote isn't moving

[El Guapo]

Tanner: You only win if you are killed.

That's a great question.

In the case of the Tanner, if the victory conditions are met before the Tanner can achieve his goal then he loses and as the game is over.

I want to reiterate that these random role ww games a purposely not balanced so we have the potential for odd and wacky situations. I was hoping this would be fun for people.


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Thanks. It is - just wanted to make sure I understand the implications of the current game state.

[El Guapo]

It sounds like the game is still going because there is only 1 ninja and 3 samurai, right? Since I am the only one with a vote you can lynch me today leaving 2-1. Then if the ninja successfully kills someone it will be 1-1, Ninjas win. I hope there is a protection power otherwise the Ninjas are guaranteed a victory. Good luck!

Right - my understanding is that the game hasn't ended because there are 3 samurai and 1 ninja, which in turn means that bb2112 was a ninja.

It would be more useful if, instead of resigned doom, you actually argued why we should not think that you are a ninja, and who you think is the remaining ninja.

[El Guapo]

It doesn't make sense... El Guapo isn't voting, only me and Holman did based on Unagi's post.
So I'm guessing El G isn't a Ninja which solidifies Unagi's claim.

In any case my vote isn't moving

I haven't voted yet because I wanted to get my questions answered on the game end first. Now I know for certain (unless I am missing something) that bb2112 was a ninja, so I can re-read the thread in that light.

[El Guapo]

Is there any reason why the Old Hag, with her power expended, shouldn't identify herself?

Is there any reason why the third special, if they exist and are alive, shouldn't identify themselves?

[Vorret]

It doesn't make sense... El Guapo isn't voting, only me and Holman did based on Unagi's post.
So I'm guessing El G isn't a Ninja which solidifies Unagi's claim.

In any case my vote isn't moving

I haven't voted yet because I wanted to get my questions answered on the game end first. Now I know for certain (unless I am missing something) that bb2112 was a ninja, so I can re-read the thread in that light.

Yeah, I'm surprise nobody claimed the Hag yet, maybe it was Unagi?

[Vorret]

Is there any reason why the Old Hag, with her power expended, shouldn't identify herself?

Is there any reason why the third special, if they exist and are alive, shouldn't identify themselves?

Ah, posted at the same time as yours, my only guess is Unagi was the Hag and went out with a bang?

[El Guapo]

It doesn't make sense... El Guapo isn't voting, only me and Holman did based on Unagi's post.
So I'm guessing El G isn't a Ninja which solidifies Unagi's claim.

In any case my vote isn't moving

I haven't voted yet because I wanted to get my questions answered on the game end first. Now I know for certain (unless I am missing something) that bb2112 was a ninja, so I can re-read the thread in that light.

Yeah, I'm surprise nobody claimed the Hag yet, maybe it was Unagi?

Scoop - does the Hag's power resolve before the night kill? Like, if the Hag uses her power and gets targeted, does her power go off?

Though I assume that if Unagi was using the Hag power last night, that he would've targeted Moliere not bb2112.

[Vorret]

It doesn't make sense... El Guapo isn't voting, only me and Holman did based on Unagi's post.
So I'm guessing El G isn't a Ninja which solidifies Unagi's claim.

In any case my vote isn't moving

I haven't voted yet because I wanted to get my questions answered on the game end first. Now I know for certain (unless I am missing something) that bb2112 was a ninja, so I can re-read the thread in that light.

Yeah, I'm surprise nobody claimed the Hag yet, maybe it was Unagi?

Scoop - does the Hag's power resolve before the night kill? Like, if the Hag uses her power and gets targeted, does her power go off?

Though I assume that if Unagi was using the Hag power last night, that he would've targeted Moliere not bb2112.

Last minute change of heart?

[Vorret]

I think we can assume Moliere isn't the Hag, he would have come out already being at N-1.
We can assume you're not the Hag otherwise you wouldn't be asking the question.
I'm not the Hag either.

So it leaves us with Holman or Unagi before his demise.

[Holman]

It wasn't me. It must have been Unagi.

[El Guapo]

It wasn't me. It must have been Unagi.

Do you have anything else to say? Who do you think is our ninja? One thing that comes across during my re-read is how cautious and quiet you have been this game.

[Holman]

It wasn't me. It must have been Unagi.

Do you have anything else to say? Who do you think is our ninja? One thing that comes across during my re-read is how cautious and quiet you have been this game.

I feel like this game hasn't given us anything to go on. It seems to me that everyone who *hasn't* been cautious and quiet is already dead.

I believe Moliere is the ninja, but I'm basing it on Unagi's analysis just before he was murdered. He was right about bb2112 too.

[Vorret]

It wasn't me. It must have been Unagi.

Do you have anything else to say? Who do you think is our ninja? One thing that comes across during my re-read is how cautious and quiet you have been this game.

I feel like this game hasn't given us anything to go on. It seems to me that everyone who *hasn't* been cautious and quiet is already dead.

I believe Moliere is the ninja, but I'm basing it on Unagi's analysis just before he was murdered. He was right about bb2112 too.

Yeah, I agree.

Reading Unagi's analysis made me go "Crap, he's right" which is why my vote is on Moliere. We could be wrong but he did nail BB as Holman said. Unless you have some compelling evidence against someone else, I think it's currently our best shot at winning.

[El Guapo]

It wasn't me. It must have been Unagi.

Do you have anything else to say? Who do you think is our ninja? One thing that comes across during my re-read is how cautious and quiet you have been this game.

I feel like this game hasn't given us anything to go on. It seems to me that everyone who *hasn't* been cautious and quiet is already dead.

I believe Moliere is the ninja, but I'm basing it on Unagi's analysis just before he was murdered. He was right about bb2112 too.

Yeah, I agree.

Reading Unagi's analysis made me go "Crap, he's right" which is why my vote is on Moliere. We could be wrong but he did nail BB as Holman said. Unless you have some compelling evidence against someone else, I think it's currently our best shot at winning.

I've pretty much cleared you from re-reading, so it's either Moliere or Holman (and Holman appears to have been Unagi's second most likely ninja after Moliere). There isn't a ton to go on, and Unagi's analysis (while drawing from thin reeds) probably tilts things against Moliere, though Holman does give me a bit of the heebie-jeebies.

Vorret, what do you think about Holman? My main concern with him is just that his day 1 and 2 posts (such as they are) are almost all "golly willickers, this game is complicated!". Which could be genuine, but (as RMC noted at the time) can also be an act to avoid generating a trail.

[Vorret]

It wasn't me. It must have been Unagi.

Do you have anything else to say? Who do you think is our ninja? One thing that comes across during my re-read is how cautious and quiet you have been this game.

I feel like this game hasn't given us anything to go on. It seems to me that everyone who *hasn't* been cautious and quiet is already dead.

I believe Moliere is the ninja, but I'm basing it on Unagi's analysis just before he was murdered. He was right about bb2112 too.

Yeah, I agree.

Reading Unagi's analysis made me go "Crap, he's right" which is why my vote is on Moliere. We could be wrong but he did nail BB as Holman said. Unless you have some compelling evidence against someone else, I think it's currently our best shot at winning.

I've pretty much cleared you from re-reading, so it's either Moliere or Holman (and Holman appears to have been Unagi's second most likely ninja after Moliere). There isn't a ton to go on, and Unagi's analysis (while drawing from thin reeds) probably tilts things against Moliere, though Holman does give me a bit of the heebie-jeebies.

Vorret, what do you think about Holman? My main concern with him is just that his day 1 and 2 posts (such as they are) are almost all "golly willickers, this game is complicated!". Which could be genuine, but (as RMC noted at the time) can also be an act to avoid generating a trail.

Went back to day one and read all of Holman posts and Moliere.
Moliere seems very careful in his posts, go have a look, most of them are short sentences with no or very little content.

Holman doesn't post much but he at least provides some analysis of his own instead of jumping on what others are saying.

Your call, I'm not good at coin flips

[Moliere]

Went back to day one and read all of Holman posts and Moliere.
Moliere seems very careful in his posts, go have a look, most of them are short sentences with no or very little content.

Holman doesn't post much but he at least provides some analysis of his own instead of jumping on what others are saying.

What?
I'm good.
Holman is bad.
 Holman 
 

[Holman]

Vorret, what do you think about Holman? My main concern with him is just that his day 1 and 2 posts (such as they are) are almost all "golly willickers, this game is complicated!". Which could be genuine, but (as RMC noted at the time) can also be an act to avoid generating a trail.

But, golly willickers, this game *is* complicated!

And I feel like I've been posting every (real-time) day. Not enough?

[El Guapo]

Well, that's super persuasive.

Anyway, Moliere and Holman are viable candidates, there's not a *ton* to go on in choosing between them, the consensus (including Unagi) tilts towards Moliere, and the vibe from Moliere's posts reads kind of like despairing wolf not frustrated villager.

So, let's get on with this, then.

 Moliere 
 

[El Guapo]

Vorret, what do you think about Holman? My main concern with him is just that his day 1 and 2 posts (such as they are) are almost all "golly willickers, this game is complicated!". Which could be genuine, but (as RMC noted at the time) can also be an act to avoid generating a trail.

But, golly willickers, this game *is* complicated!

And I feel like I've been posting every (real-time) day. Not enough?

It's academic now, but it's that posts like that aren't all that helpful when going back at this stage of the game (knowing something about who is definitely good / evil) to figure out loyalties. So it can be genuine of course, but (as RMC noted) it can also be a wolf act.

We'll see!