malchior wrote:Also, DoE runs national laboratories here and is partially responsible for protecting the nuclear stockpile. It's not 100% crazy.
What does protecting the nuclear stockpile have to do with investigating the origins of a pandemic and evaluating the evidence for/against a zoonotic event or a lab leak?
What smells (to me) is the vague appeal to authority, without any actual evidence establishing their authority to be qualified to evaluate something like this.
Same goes for the FBI. And probably the agencies that concluded that it was a zoonotic event at the wet market.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
malchior wrote:Also, DoE runs national laboratories here and is partially responsible for protecting the nuclear stockpile. It's not 100% crazy.
What does protecting the nuclear stockpile have to do with investigating the origins of a pandemic and evaluating the evidence for/against a zoonotic event or a lab leak?
What smells (to me) is the vague appeal to authority, without any actual evidence establishing their authority to be qualified to evaluate something like this.
Yeah I could have been clearer. They run the national laboratories. For multiple agencies. They have more expertise than energy. I'll also reference Isgrimnur's post above for some confirmation about relevant expertise as well. The reason to point out the nuclear stockpile is they have to staff a top notch intelligence service with far reach because of the seriousness of their work. As to the vague appeal to authority...maybe. I was just saying it isn't 100% crazy to think they could form an opinion based on some of the expansive parts of DoE's mission. Still I believe this assessment was leaked for political purposes.
Same goes for the FBI. And probably the agencies that concluded that it was a zoonotic event at the wet market.
The FBI assessment is potentially the weakest. Especially considering all the problems at the FBI in general. Despite all the arguments they are non-political...they seem to be pretty political.
concluded with "low confidence" that it is plausible the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a laboratory leak
From my English as second language understanding, that just stated that the DoE doesn't rule out a laboratory leak as the source but doesn't think it is likely to be the source.
It is far from DoE think a laboratory leak is the source of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Maybe it is just my weak understanding of English. Maybe the real meaning is that DoE think it is almost certain to be a laboratory leak.
Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:42 pm
concluded with "low confidence" that it is plausible the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a laboratory leak
The intelligence community defines "low confidence" as:
“means the information is scant, questionable, or very fragmented, so it is difficult to make solid analytic inferences; it could also mean that the (intelligence community) has significant concerns about or problems with the sources.”
So it follows that they would totally make some kind of statement based on that.
Vice: What ‘Low Confidence’ in the Lab Leak Theory Actually Means
The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) uses the terms “low,” “moderate,” and “high” confidence to describe the amount and quality of the information behind any one of its claims. According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the body that brings the 18 IC agencies together and coordinates them, “A low confidence level generally indicates that the information used in the analysis is scant, questionable, fragmented, or that solid analytical conclusions cannot be inferred from the information, or that the IC has significant concerns or problems with the information sources.” That definition can be found in the ODNI’s 2011 guide on the IC and how to properly understand what an intelligence report means.
ODNI’s definition was not included in the coverage of the Wall Street Journal, which first broke news of the Department of Energy’s intelligence assessment. Nor was an explanation of what low confidence actually means, which would have been especially important when the vast majority of the article’s readers were presumably not intelligence professionals trained in how to interpret the very particular ways an intelligence report is written.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:11 pm
A lab leak wouldn't imply that covid was a bioweapon (would be a pretty bad bioweapon honestly) - I believe the main lab leak theory is a leak from a civilian lab that was studying that category of viruses.
That's the reasonable theory *if* the virus originated in a lab. Do you really feel the laser-like focus on lab origin from a certain subset of society has been reasonable? Or that they will accept standard scientific research as an explanation?
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:45 pmSo it follows that they would totally make some kind of statement based on that.
Worse they didn't decide to release this information. Someone leaked it with utterly predictable political impact. The right are stomping around on Twitter and Fox News that they've been right all along about EVERYTHING. In effect, masks were useless, natural immunity is better, vaccines were dangerous, blah blah blah. Without a display of any critical reasoning at all. It's just chest beating tribalism as our politics get worse and worse.
As long as we ignore its spread, it can exist in a state of both being a weaponized dangerous threat to our freedom covered up by political forces and a benign event that dangerous political forces are are weaponizing to threaten our freedom.
At it's core MAGA is a highly illogical revanchist political movement. The point of all this noise isn't to have cohesive narratives. It is to rally the troops to attempt to increase power. Whatever narrative sticks is good enough as long as it persists and resonates. That was Trump's most powerful ability. He effectively market tests ideas. Most of these are descendants of ideas he injected and popularized that have stuck around longer than they should have.
Victoria Raverna wrote:And the meaning of plausible in U.S. Intelligence Community is what? 100% certain?
Around 70% I would think. More likely than not. So despite the way it can be characterized, the report said "there's a few points of evidence that point to a lab leak, but many, many others that don't."
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:11 pm
A lab leak wouldn't imply that covid was a bioweapon (would be a pretty bad bioweapon honestly) - I believe the main lab leak theory is a leak from a civilian lab that was studying that category of viruses.
That's the reasonable theory *if* the virus originated in a lab. Do you really feel the laser-like focus on lab origin from a certain subset of society has been reasonable? Or that they will accept standard scientific research as an explanation?
No - I mean by definition the crazy people are not reasonable nor will they accept reasonable evidence. As I understand it the mainstream smart / informed consensus on Covid origin is that it probably started via 'natural' / zoonotic transfer, but that there is a small but non-trivial chance that it started via a lab leak (most likely from one of the labs around Wuhan that studies coronaviruses).
But of course you also have crazy people running around saying crazy versions, which include both wildly overstating the odds of a lab leak origin and also mixing in crazy theories like that covid was a Chinese bioweapon that got leaked.
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:22 am
At it's core MAGA is a highly illogical revanchist political movement. The point of all this noise isn't to have cohesive narratives. It is to rally the troops to attempt to increase power. Whatever narrative sticks is good enough as long as it persists and resonates. That was Trump's most powerful ability. He effectively market tests ideas. Most of these are descendants of ideas he injected and popularized that have stuck around longer than they should have.
This is a a core problem (in my opinion) in the left's approach to dealing with the right. The left is trying to fight irrationality with rationality. The problem is that accepting a rational argument requires rational thought, and the right has managed to eliminate that. It doesn't matter what the science really means. It doesn't matter what the study really said. It doesn't matter what the evidence says. It doesn't matter that there is one scientist saying it and 10,000 saying the opposite. None of it has any bearing if the person listening to the argument is countering it on the basis of "This is what I believe, and your 'facts' don't matter."
It's like we're shooting bullets at Superman, and when the bullets bounce off, we shoot more bullets - because bullets are what we know.
Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:18 pm
It's like we're shooting bullets at Superman, and when the bullets bounce off, we shoot more bullets - because bullets are what we know.
Don't forget that we also need to throw the gun at Superman after the bullets run out.
Not just that ‘bullets are what we know’ but also ‘we cannot comprehend that bullets are not working…they REALLY should be working! (So keep shooting, bc this shit is unreal and I do not accept it).
Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:18 pm
It's like we're shooting bullets at Superman, and when the bullets bounce off, we shoot more bullets - because bullets are what we know.
Don't forget that we also need to throw the gun at Superman after the bullets run out.
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:22 am
At it's core MAGA is a highly illogical revanchist political movement. The point of all this noise isn't to have cohesive narratives. It is to rally the troops to attempt to increase power. Whatever narrative sticks is good enough as long as it persists and resonates. That was Trump's most powerful ability. He effectively market tests ideas. Most of these are descendants of ideas he injected and popularized that have stuck around longer than they should have.
This is a a core problem (in my opinion) in the left's approach to dealing with the right. The left is trying to fight irrationality with rationality. The problem is that accepting a rational argument requires rational thought, and the right has managed to eliminate that. It doesn't matter what the science really means. It doesn't matter what the study really said. It doesn't matter what the evidence says. It doesn't matter that there is one scientist saying it and 10,000 saying the opposite. None of it has any bearing if the person listening to the argument is countering it on the basis of "This is what I believe, and your 'facts' don't matter."
It's like we're shooting bullets at Superman, and when the bullets bounce off, we shoot more bullets - because bullets are what we know.
It’s the same on the right. Look at all the republicans who pushed back against trumps election lie.
Heck pre trump this forum was definitely more right wing than left. I’d argue it still is but the needle has moved. What was conservative is now been co-opted to mean something else. now we live in an America and greater western world where on shows like Maury, a man is convinced his 3 year old child isn’t his because he doesn’t like chicken nuggets like he does.
Human beings are lazy. As a politician what’s easier, to convince chicken nuggets man that joe Biden used Star Trek transporters to beam boxes of votes into polling centres from hell or to have reasoned rational arguments about the actual world and why spraying Gatorade on cross is a bad idea.
it’s easy to convince people that other people did this because they see it all the time with supervillains in Hollywood movies while eating chicken nuggets and they can’t or won’t understand basic biology.
waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:28 pm
Heck pre trump this forum was definitely more right wing than left. I’d argue it still is but the needle has moved.
I'm not following you even a little, here. This has been largely a liberal sounding board since at least coming of Obama and I think the last of generally and/or hard core right wing went radio silent with coming of Trump. Unless you think anyone right Sanders and AOC is right wing.
It's easy to convince people because we don't teach them how to think rationally or to question what they are told when they are children.
And it is easy to convince people because we have the technology to isolate them from other views.
And it is easy to convince people because figuring out what is real is a lot more work than accepting what we're told.
And it's easy to convince people because we use other people who are experts in psychology who know all of the above to deliberately manipulate them in a way that almost guarantees acceptance of the chosen views.
That Biden hasn't fired Wray has been a huge mistake. This completely irresponsible, politically motivated interview is in a long line of failures he has presided over as Director of the FBI.
For example - the GAO today calling out the FBI for not assessing why it's personnel didn't process information related to preparations for 1/6. Come on. There is something clearly wrong with the FBI.
waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:28 pm
Heck pre trump this forum was definitely more right wing than left. I’d argue it still is but the needle has moved.
I'm not following you even a little, here. This has been largely a liberal sounding board since at least coming of Obama and I think the last of generally and/or hard core right wing went radio silent with coming of Trump. Unless you think anyone right Sanders and AOC is right wing.
Perhaps I’m wrong as I took some time away before coming back here. Certainly I mean not disrespect but an observation that I feel that then reasonable centre right or centre viewpoints that are considered left wing now were at least equal on this board.
waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:28 pm
Heck pre trump this forum was definitely more right wing than left. I’d argue it still is but the needle has moved.
I'm not following you even a little, here. This has been largely a liberal sounding board since at least coming of Obama and I think the last of generally and/or hard core right wing went radio silent with coming of Trump. Unless you think anyone right Sanders and AOC is right wing.
Perhaps I’m wrong as I took some time away before coming back here. Certainly I mean not disrespect but an observation that I feel that then reasonable centre right or centre viewpoints that are considered left wing now were at least equal on this board.
I think the forum has definitely shifted leftward over the years, but it always had at least a pro-liberal lean. Some of our biggest conservative voices have stopped posting (Rip, msduncan) or shifted leftward (YellowKing). There was also a larger small-l libertarian cadre on the forums that is no longer here (Mr. Fed, Tariq (RIP)) or evolved away from that to one extent or another (me!). Still, we've also lost a number of hard left voices (Eduardo X, anyone?).
I think the forum has definitely shifted leftward over the years, but it always had at least a pro-liberal lean. Some of our biggest conservative voices have stopped posting (Rip, msduncan) or shifted leftward (YellowKing). There was also a larger small-l libertarian cadre on the forums that is no longer here (Mr. Fed, Tariq (RIP)) or evolved away from that to one extent or another (me!). Still, we've also lost a number of hard left voices (Eduardo X, anyone?).
I mostly agree with this, but would have described it as socially liberal, economically moderate.
And just a reminder, the rest of the world sees the US as Right Leaning and Far Right. Left doesn't mean the same thing in the US as it does in other western countries.
That the Far Right is at war with the Right Leaning because they aren't far enough Right is...interesting?
waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:28 pm
Heck pre trump this forum was definitely more right wing than left. I’d argue it still is but the needle has moved.
I'm not following you even a little, here. This has been largely a liberal sounding board since at least coming of Obama and I think the last of generally and/or hard core right wing went radio silent with coming of Trump. Unless you think anyone right Sanders and AOC is right wing.
Perhaps I’m wrong as I took some time away before coming back here. Certainly I mean not disrespect but an observation that I feel that then reasonable centre right or centre viewpoints that are considered left wing now were at least equal on this board.
I think the forum has definitely shifted leftward over the years, but it always had at least a pro-liberal lean. Some of our biggest conservative voices have stopped posting (Rip, msduncan) or shifted leftward (YellowKing). There was also a larger small-l libertarian cadre on the forums that is no longer here (Mr. Fed, Tariq (RIP)) or evolved away from that to one extent or another (me!). Still, we've also lost a number of hard left voices (Eduardo X, anyone?).
We've also lost at least one pro-Dreamcast / pro-pet duck voice on the forum.
waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:28 pm
Heck pre trump this forum was definitely more right wing than left. I’d argue it still is but the needle has moved.
I'm not following you even a little, here. This has been largely a liberal sounding board since at least coming of Obama and I think the last of generally and/or hard core right wing went radio silent with coming of Trump. Unless you think anyone right Sanders and AOC is right wing.
Perhaps I’m wrong as I took some time away before coming back here. Certainly I mean not disrespect but an observation that I feel that then reasonable centre right or centre viewpoints that are considered left wing now were at least equal on this board.
I think the forum has definitely shifted leftward over the years, but it always had at least a pro-liberal lean. Some of our biggest conservative voices have stopped posting (Rip, msduncan) or shifted leftward (YellowKing). There was also a larger small-l libertarian cadre on the forums that is no longer here (Mr. Fed, Tariq (RIP)) or evolved away from that to one extent or another (me!). Still, we've also lost a number of hard left voices (Eduardo X, anyone?).
We've also lost at least one pro-Dreamcast / pro-pet duck voice on the forum.
Not a day goes by that I don't regret clicking that ban button.
GreenGoo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:00 pm
And just a reminder, the rest of the world sees the US as Right Leaning and Far Right. Left doesn't mean the same thing in the US as it does in other western countries.
That the Far Right is at war with the Right Leaning because they aren't far enough Right is...interesting?
Right on. I'd almost certainly align with the Tories in the UK for instance. That was before the Tories went crazy ethnonationalist as well too but I voted for Republicans in this century. I would love to have an option to vote for a Republican. Unfortunately I can't with good conscience vote for one as dogcatcher now. That stands up even though I HATE the Democratic party in NJ. I hate our Governor. I hate my corrupt town council. I hate the utter mismanagement of public funds here or their inability to get even simple things done like maintain roads. But I have no option. I want a loyal, rational opposition but that isn't what we have.
Regarding forum drift, there is another faction at work too - and I'm a member. I didn't drift left. I didn't drift right. I wasn't in the center.
I was utterly apathetic to anything political for most of my life. I didn't "get" politics (I still don't), and didn't really care. I saw it as endless nonsense, as people lying to each other and rewarding the best liar - even though they knew that they were lying. It just made no sense.
The last 15 years changed that, starting with Bush's crap. In fact, it was Bush getting reelected when I didn't think there was any way that people would continue to support him after his first term that made me realize that I needed to get involved and start voting (more accurately, I realized that as bothered as I was at him winning, I hadn't bothered to take an hour to do something about it, and didn't really have any right to complain.) Then the right started to act so openly antagonistic and awful that I became (semi) political just to counter them. They went so extreme that I felt like I had to pick a side and stand against what they'd come to stand for.
I think in the main if you attack this logically a malicious lab leak by the ccp is highly unlikely because the possibility for blowback is massive.
That leaves you with a lone wolf act by a researcher, a researcher being infected by accident and spreading the virus, some idiot selling lab infected animals to the wet market or a biological cause via slaughtered animals at the wet market ora human being infected somewhere in the city surrounds.
The odds have to be on the biological route as corona viruses have sprung up from the wild in the 1960s and before but we’re not as bad.
That doesn’t mean you can’t condemn the indifference and incompetence of the ccp in allowing this thing to spread but we need to be able to realistically condemn them not whip out the depraved James Bond supervillain claims.
waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 12:31 am
That doesn’t mean you can’t condemn the indifference and incompetence of the ccp in allowing this thing to spread but we need to be able to realistically condemn them not whip out the depraved James Bond supervillain claims.
China quarantined entire cities and locked people forcibly in their homes.
The US couldn't even get people to wear masks occasionally.
There is now a large body of peer-reviewed scientific research consistent with a zoonotic origin of this pandemic. However, there is no credible, peer-reviewed research pointing to a lab leak. Had the evidence gone in the other direction, I’d be reporting that. But it hasn’t.
...
Lab leak proponents cling to the contention that the presence of a lab that studies viruses and the emergence of a coronavirus pandemic in the same city can’t possibly be coincidental. But my colleagues and I showed in 2021 that this virus wasn’t going to emerge just anywhere in China: It took a city. Simulations indicate that when a virus with the properties of SARS-CoV-2 jumps into a human in a sparsely populated rural area, it will fail to cause an outbreak 99% of the time. But take that same virus into a huge city like Wuhan, and about a third of animal-to-human transmissions will result in an epidemic.
The reason it's so great is because he steps through this thinking process - how he went about coming to his conclusions.
