That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://garbi.online/forum/
I'd chip in as well, but this is why GoFundMe exists.Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:59 amI'll spring for it if you make this happen.Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:52 amTo whom do I expense the lime green speedo?LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:10 am We need old guard Izzy to stand behind every speech carrying an XKCD "citation needed" posterboard.
There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.Kraken wrote:Trump announced that a death toll under 100k would be a huge success. It looks like we're going to plateau around 60k. There's lots of slack left in the budget!
Locally, Saturday morning seems to be a sweet spot for Instacart. In general, on any given morning you might find slots for one or two days sometime next week, but there have been slots open Saturday morning for same-day delivery. My WAG is that it is because shoppers that are working Instacart as a primary job are keeping themselves fully booked up for a week or so in advance, but the ones doing it as a side gig may not be logging into the system and creating slots until the day that they will actually be working, in which case there is a window of opportunity to book a same-day order early on the weekend.ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:13 am I know that my neighbor (single mom to a not-yet 5 year old) has been using Instacart, but I don't know how far out she has to order to get a delivery slot.
That's where I'm at. We've slowed thing by not opening them up and this hasn't spread en masse to rural areas yet. When a good day is 1500 deaths and we're already above 50k, you have about a week until we "plateau" and what does plateau even mean? My vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 pm There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.
Trump has managed to usher in the modern confederate dream. He's breaking the union.wonderpug wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:24 pm Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:
It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.
Reading from the like of Bill Gates, vaccination in 2020 is not lala land. Vaccination that is widely used and mass produced after going through all phases of clinical trials.... So you're saying there's a chance...
We're having almost zero issues getting stuff at ShopRite. BJs we will not renew. That had nothing in stock at all. They just aren't keeping up from what I'm seeing. Costco was fine as well. Tons of stuff on the shelves.malchior wrote:This is the part that is driving me crazy. Not well stocked and people are not keeping their distance. I had an experience today where there was a woman weeping at the beef fridge in BJs while she talked on speakerphone about how there was nothing to buy. She was proceeding to pick up and put down the few packages of london broils while 2 of us (we weren't together) stood a good distance away. She moved to the extreme right edge and I darted in and just grabbed one to move on. She screamed at me for violating social distancing. On the well stocked front I went to three stores and couldn't find any butter. I'm so done with this shit.El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pmThough my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.
I want to be as optimistic as Gates, but I cannot. We've never created a brand new vaccine as fast as they're projecting (12-18 months) and more importantly we've never created a vaccine against a coronavirus (any of them). Now, maybe science will pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but given the potential for real harm with a faulty vaccination, they cannot afford to screw this up.LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:29 pmReading from the like of Bill Gates, vaccination in 2020 is not lala land. Vaccination that is widely used and mass produced after going through all phases of clinical trials.... So you're saying there's a chance...
Also, to be clear, a vaccine that's not through all trials and mass produced doesn't count. So yes, even per Gates, it's not happening this year. Gates has it at 18 months most likely, and 9 months to 2 years as his range in yesterday's Gates notes.Smoove_B wrote:I want to be as optimistic as Gates, but I cannot. We've never created a brand new vaccine as fast as they're projecting (12-18 months) and more importantly we've never created a vaccine against a coronavirus (any of them). Now, maybe science will pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but given the potential for real harm with a faulty vaccination, they cannot afford to screw this up.LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:29 pmReading from the like of Bill Gates, vaccination in 2020 is not lala land. Vaccination that is widely used and mass produced after going through all phases of clinical trials.... So you're saying there's a chance...
Vaccination should be part of a plan. It should not be the only plan as it's a long-term strategy.
He didn't make projections but rather said "this is what is going on. This is a possibility. This is what a CEO type position can tell you about what work is being done." He also didn't put a vaccine as the He put it as one pursuit in four phases of a plan along side things like plasma transfusions and the ability to put a repeated testing en masse to slowly move people out of isolation according to a complexity he couldn't foresee. His article was really good for those of us who aren't in the know. Or he was really good at pulling the wool over my eyes.Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:56 pm I want to be as optimistic as Gates, but I cannot. We've never created a brand new vaccine as fast as they're projecting (12-18 months) and more importantly we've never created a vaccine against a coronavirus (any of them). Now, maybe science will pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but given the potential for real harm with a faulty vaccination, they cannot afford to screw this up.
Vaccination should be part of a plan. It should not be the only plan as it's a long-term strategy.
I'm sure hepcat has like a dozen lying around.Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:59 amI'll spring for it if you make this happen.Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:52 amTo whom do I expense the lime green speedo?LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:10 am We need old guard Izzy to stand behind every speech carrying an XKCD "citation needed" posterboard.
Yes, the plasma thing has real potential. But to reinforce, there is still so much we don't know, namely what level of immunity is conferred. It will likely be helpful in treatment and getting people through a medical crisis (which is good). But it's doubtful they'll have long term immunity to illness because of it. So much more data needs to be gathered on what happens to the immune system for the people that contracted the illness - there's so many scattered reports about immunity post-exposure because we're still learning about the virus. I cannot emphasize this enough. We still don't have a firm handle on how it's spreading, environmental survivability, pathology -- we're just not there.His article was really good for those of us who aren't in the know. Or he was really good at pulling the wool over my eyes.
Geez, it's not *drinking* bleach, it's *injecting* bleach.Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:08 pm
Also, I should state I am in full support of injecting UV light into people, but not drinking bleach. Let's be realistic here.
He's just a self confessed fan the Dead Milkmen.El Guapo wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:12 pmGeez, it's not *drinking* bleach, it's *injecting* bleach.Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:08 pm
Also, I should state I am in full support of injecting UV light into people, but not drinking bleach. Let's be realistic here.
And you call yourself a public health professional.
This is actually really interesting in how the country would look if (when) the US falls apart.wonderpug wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:24 pm Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:
It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.
My rough guess is that 80 - 100K above at best if this is normally distributed and we're at peak (we're probably not). If it's normal and we're past peak then on the way down we should have roughly the same amount of deaths. Not a perfect number but a possible approximation.Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:23 pm I mean, there's virtually no chance we plateau under 100k at this time, right? As others have pointed out, we're losing thousands/day and it's not yet even slowing, much less plateauing. And all the experts I've read say we will definitely have rises as things open, and almost definitely have a big jump in the fall.
And that a vaccine in 2020 is lala land.
It is even worse. He is maintaining his evil attack on our nation by saying he said it to bait the press corps. He is claiming they should have known he was kidding and they fell for his bait. He like to point out how all the media wants to do is take him down. There is no way to beat this guy in this game other than not giving him the attention he craves. Sure it probably hurts him in the short-term but he just keeps spinning them from one controversy to the next.Holman wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:27 pm Trump is now claiming that his comment about injecting disinfectant inside people’s bodies was “sarcastic.”
It reminds me of the map from Crimson Skies and other fictional post-US worldsJag wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:20 pmThis is actually really interesting in how the country would look if (when) the US falls apart.wonderpug wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:24 pm Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:
It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.
Why are you posting fake news? Bottom's up, motherfuckers! MAGA!
Maybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 pmMy vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.
I dunno that you misunderstood anything. I just know when using plateau in that context it is weird to me.RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:24 pmMaybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 pmMy vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.
Look at that spot map of cases - look at it. It's suggesting that working indoors in close proximity for long hours near someone that is sick is highly concerning (as if the attack rate of 43.5% wasn't concerning enough).We describe the epidemiology of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in a call center in South Korea. We obtained information on demographic characteristics by using standardized epidemiologic investigation forms. We performed descriptive analyses and reported the results as frequencies and proportions for categoric variables. Of 1,143 persons who were tested for COVID-19, a total of 97 (8.5%, 95% CI 7.0%–10.3%) had confirmed cases. Of these, 94 were working in an 11th-floor call center with 216 employees, translating to an attack rate of 43.5% (95% CI 36.9%–50.4%).
The role of asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients in spreading the disease is of great concern. Among 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in this study, 4 (4.1%) remained asymptomatic during the 14-days of monitoring. This rate is lower than the 30.8% rate estimated in previous modeling (4). A case-patient series from Beijing, China, indicated that asymptomatic case-patients accounted for 5% (13/262) of patients transferred to a designated COVID-19 hospital (5). Our data might represent the likely proportion of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections in the community setting. We also found that, among 17 household contacts of asymptomatic case-patients, none had secondary infections. Previous reports have postulated that SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic (or presymptomatic) case-patients might become transmissible to others (6); however, given the high degree of self-quarantine and isolation measures that were instituted after March 8 among this cohort, our analyses might have not detected the actual transmissibility in asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients. Robust mass testing of all suspected case-patients might have prevented asymptomatic transmission because asymptomatic persons were given information about their possible infection and therefore might have self-isolated from their household members.
No, no, no you fools. President Trump did not tell people to inject or ingest Lysol to combat COVID-19.
Here's what Trump said during Thursday's coronavirus briefing, which was aired on live television (and I quote):
"I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it'd be interesting to check that. So you're going to have to use medical doctors with — but it sounds interesting to me."
Please point to me, in that exchange, where it says to inject or ingest Lysol.
The mainstream media is reprehensible.
Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?
Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account. You can find examples like this in almost any profession.
Thank you to everyone who's stepping up in their job no matter what they do during the country's time of need.
And thank you president Trump for your leadership and resolve during this crisis.
That is what I took it at because to say the death rate stabilizes...means it is linear and it already is pretty much linear at ~2K deaths/day. It is varying up and down but that is the near-time trend slope.RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:24 pmMaybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 pmMy vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.
Speaking as someone also in IT, who has also helped step things up to make my org's work-from-home smooth and efficient: fuck that guy.malchior wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pmHere's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?
Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account.
Oddly enough, the actual White House transcript doesn't have a question mark after "almost a cleaning". It's a period.malchior wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pm Actual quote by my most idiotic canary in the dumbass Trumpist derp mine. It is becoming hard not to just blast him.
No, no, no you fools. President Trump did not tell people to inject or ingest Lysol to combat COVID-19.
Here's what Trump said during Thursday's coronavirus briefing, which was aired on live television (and I quote):
"I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it'd be interesting to check that. So you're going to have to use medical doctors with — but it sounds interesting to me."
Please point to me, in that exchange, where it says to inject or ingest Lysol.
The mainstream media is reprehensible.
You have far more restraint than I do. Fuck that guy.malchior wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pm Actual quote by my most idiotic canary in the dumbass Trumpist derp mine. It is becoming hard not to just blast him.
Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?
Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account. You can find examples like this in almost any profession.
Thank you to everyone who's stepping up in their job no matter what they do during the country's time of need.
And thank you president Trump for your leadership and resolve during this crisis.
+1. I mean my work could give me a thank you but their thank you is I still have a job and still get a check (though I gotta admit the concessions are not pleasant, even if I have it way better than many)Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:52 pmSpeaking as someone also in IT, who has also helped step things up to make my org's work-from-home smooth and efficient: fuck that guy.malchior wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pmHere's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?
Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account.
I'll be amazed if that transcript still exists by Monday. I think the official guess is that because the FDA officially came out against Trump's "miracle drug" today, he needed to try to come up with a new magic bullet solution. Disinfecting lungs and UV light inserted into your body it is!pr0ner wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:58 pmOddly enough, the actual White House transcript doesn't have a question mark after "almost a cleaning". It's a period.
Actually the mainstream just reported Trump's words - primarily "disinfectant." They never claimed Trump said to inject Lysol. The Lysol stuff comes from Facebook memes.Dumbass IT Guy wrote:The mainstream media is reprehensible.
This is what makes the comments on his post hilarious. They are clearly responding to bubble information but this one is more a self-own because when you read the statement and watch the video...it is clear what he actually was communicating and thought was at the time a great idea. I am trying to find the tweet but Getty Images has an image of him studying the board behind him just prior to these remarks. It is like he came up with them on the spot and in the spirit of all morons who think they will outsmart experts just blurted them out. Not that my idiotic mean spirited canary could even comprehend the levels of irony involved all around.YellowKing wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:20 pmActually the mainstream just reported Trump's words - primarily "disinfectant." They never claimed Trump said to inject Lysol. The Lysol stuff comes from Facebook memes.Dumbass IT Guy wrote:The mainstream media is reprehensible.